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Preliminary Snowfall Forecast for the upcoming Winter Storm
-Placement of heaviest snowfall likely to adjust
-highest confidence that
#GTA
will see heaviest snowfall
-Risk of mixing across parts of SW
#Ontario
and
#Niagara
We'll have a more detailed forecast tomorrow
#OnWX
Another ridiculously snowy run from the 🇪🇺 model!
It continues to show swath of 30+cm of snow across the
#GTA
with a max of 70+cm across
#Halton
Still think it's over done but becoming more likley that there will be a heavy swath of snow across S
#Ontario
..big ? Is where
#OnWX
The latest 🇨🇦 and 🇪🇺 models are showing 30-50+cm of snow for parts of the
#GTA
with the mid week storm....no thanks!
Good news is we are still 5 days away, so this will definitely change!
#OnWX
Big shift in the models overnight and it now looks like
#Toronto
and the
#GTA
will see 30+cm of snow between Wednesday and Friday!
Get those shovels ready!
#OnWX
Very strong wording from the latest
@NWSBUFFALO
Area Forecast Discussion in regards to the upcoming winter storm.
"Paralyzing Lake Effect", "Explosive Cyclogenisis".
They also mentioned this storm to be described as a "Once in a generation type of event"!
#OnWX
Preliminary Snowfall Map for the upcoming Winter Storm.
*This was never supposed to be a big snow maker for the
#GTHA
.*
Heaviest snowfall expected across the snowbelts.
(This map includes lake effect amounts.)
I think this is a good start, will update as needed!
#OnWX
The latest 🇨🇦 and 🇪🇺 models are showing 30-50+cm of snow for parts of the
#GTA
with the mid week storm....no thanks!
Good news is we are still 5 days away, so this will definitely change!
#OnWX
Sunday night into Monday is looking WET!
Slow moving low pressure system expected to slide through S
#Ontario
bringing with it a good, steady soaking!
Widespread 1" of rain with up to 2" possible across parts of SW Ont
More rain likley early next week.
#OnWX
#OntAg
It sure was a bright ride home this evening near
#Brussels
!
From heavy freezing rain/ ice pellets to summer like thunderstorms with a temperature of 0C all within a couple of hours...gotta love S
#Ontario
weather!
#OnWX
#Onstorm
SW
#Ontario
looks to be the sweet spot for snow on the latest GFS model.
Someone east of Lake
#Huron
might see up to 175cm og snow by January 27th (based on this run)
#OnWX
A Thread🧵
9 years ago, I started this page to track storms and converse with other weather enthusiasts. Fast forward to today, I continue tracking local and significant storm systems along with interacting with my audience of over 7000 people.
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Final Snowfall Map for the upcoming storm.
If your area is circled in red, I'd strongly recommend postponing non- essential travel from Friday until Sunday.
For E.
#Ontario
, expect a round of snow tonight followed by a second round Friday PM.
#OnWX
Updated Snowfall map for the upcoming Storm.
Confidence has increased in a Lake Effect Snow Outbreak across the snow belts.
Will update this map one last time tomorrow if needed!
#OnWX
Watching a larger storm threat for next Friday.
Wayyyy too early for any specifics other than models are showing a storm developing and moving through S
#Ontario
.
We'll post another update on Tuesday.
#OnWX
Updated Snowfall Map for the upcoming Winter Storm
-Heaviest amounts along/ north of
#Hwy401
corridor from
#GTA
to E
#Ontario
-Mixing likely across N shore L
#Erie
and
#Niagara
-Still a good chance at seeing a south shift with snowfall
Will post a final update tonight!
#OnWX
Watching Friday (March 3rd) very closley.
Models have been hinting at a large Winter Storm developing and potentially impacting S
#Ontario
.
We'll keep an eye on it and post an update on Tuesday!
#OnWX
Update on the upcoming Winter Storm 👇
-Confidence continues to increase on a large impactful storm impacting S
#Ontario
midweek
-Exact track TBD
This is our current thinking at precip types
We'll have an update posted tomorrow with a first shot at accumulations
#OnWX
Updated Snowfall Map for the Storm tomorrow into Wednesday👇
-Tough call for SW/ Central
#Ontario
and the
#GTA
as temps will play a big roll in total snowfall
-IP/ FZR may hinder snowfall as well
-Heaviest snow across N sections of S Ont
-Snow/ Icy Mix for E Ont
#OnWX
Watching the December 9th-11th time frame for a large storm to impact the region.
All models show a large storm impacting S
#Ontario
with each showing a very different scenario!
We will track...and update!
#OnWx
Chances are increasing for a powerful snowstorm to impact parts of S
#Ontario
Friday into Sunday.
Still lots of details to be ironed out (track/ intensity), but there continues to be strong model/ ensemble support
After tomorrow's storm, all focus shifts on the weekend.
#OnWX
Roads are a complete mess across
#Huron
and
#Perth
counties.
Strong winds are now causing significant blowing and drifting snow.
Plows are out but are struggling to keep up
#OnWx
#Onstorm
Keeping an eye on February 12th/ 13th for our next chance at a wintry storm.
Decent agreement from the 🇺🇸 and 🇪🇺 models/ ensembles at storm impacting S
#Ontario
.
Still 8 days out, so lots can change...Will monitor and update later in the week.
#OnWX
The Christmas Blizzard back in 2022 had a pressure of 974 when it was over
#Ontario
.
The latest GFS model for the Friday/ Saturday storm has a pressures of 961 near
#Windsor
!
*NOT A FORECAST*
#OnWX
Snowfall Map for the Lake Effect Event (Nov 26th to Nov 29th)👇
-Still uncertainty on placement of heaviest bands
-Highest snowfall likely across
#Grey
,
#Bruce
and northern
#Simcoe
/
#Muskoka
Counties
-Whiteout Conditions expected across rural areas
Will Update if needed!
#OnWX
When will we flip to a warmer pattern?
Watching a pattern change as we end off April and begin May
A ridge is expected to develop over the region, bringing widespread "above normal" temps to most of S
#Ontario
.
This pattern looks to continue well into May.
Will update!
#OnWX
Preliminary forecast for the Friday/ Saturday Storm
-Still some uncertainty on track/ strength
-Heaviest snowfall likely across SW
#Ontario
-Lk Enhancement *possible* for the
#GTA
-Less snow further NE
Amounts likely to change, we'll post a detailed forecast Wed PM
#OnWX
Final forecast for the upcoming Winter Storm
-Big bust potential if temps are off by a degree or 2
-Ice Storm Risk
#Sarnia
-
#London
-
#Niagara
-Snowy/Icy mix for
#GTA
-Heavy Snow across C and E
#Ontario
If there's any big changes overnight we'll post an update in the AM
#OnWX
Still aways out, but the 🇨🇦 Model brings a sweltering heatwave to Southern
#Ontario
early next week.
Widespread temps in the low to mid 30s with overnight temps in the mid 20s for a couple days
Likely too bullish on the temps but the pattern sure supports it!
#OnWX
The last 10 days of November are starting to look very snowy ❄️ across the snowbelts.
Could see some hefty amounts I that period thanks to multiple systems/ Lake effect snow events.
Not a forecast by any means, but something to definitely keep an eye on!
#OnWX
It honestly doesn't get much better than this set up right here....
Cold air being pumped in from the NW, ridge along the SE pumping in moisture... 💥... active storm track with S
#Ontario
in the sweet spot.
Fun times ahead tracking (likely) numerous large storms!
#OnWx
After tonight and tomorrow night, low temps will likely stay above freezing for the next 12 to 14 days across most of S
#Ontario
.
Daytime temps will range between 15°C to 25°C this week with no rain expected until at least Sunday!
#OnWX
Update on the weekend storm👇
-Heaviest snow likely across the
#Hwy401
corridor from
#Hamilton
to
#Cornwall
-Lake Enhancement near
#GTA
likley to boost totals locally
-Brief light snow + flurries for the rest of S
#Ontario
Will Update
#OnWX
Drive home from
#Listowel
was trecherous with blowing/ drifting snow causing near whiteout conditions.
Highway was also heavily drifted and ice packed.
#OnWX
#Onstorm
Preliminary Snowfall Map for the upcoming Winter Storm
-Heaviest snow likely around the
#HWY401
corridor
-Mixing/ marginal temps might lower snowfall amounts across the
#Niagara
Region
-Lake Enhancement *possible* across the west
#GTHA
Will update this map tomorrow
#OnWX
Snowfall forecast for the expected Lake Effect Snow Outbreak👇
-Amounts are valid from Saturday to Sunday PM
-Hardest hit areas
#Huron
,
#Perth
,
#Grey
,
#Bruce
,
#Wellington
,
#Muskoka
-Travel will be difficult tonight/ tomorrow
-Strong winds will create whiteouts at times
#onWX
Preliminary Snowfall Map for the April 3rd-5th storm👇
-Highest Snowfall across higher elevations/ parts of E
#Ontario
(3)
-Sloppy mix near
#Hwy401
and south (1)
-Up to 10cm elsewhere
-Still some uncertainty on exact track/ strength of the storm
Will update tomorrow!
#OnWX
Preliminary Forecast for the Midweek Winter Storm (Valid Wednesday AM to Friday AM)
-Ice Storm for parts of SW
#Ontario
-10-20cm of snow/IP for the
#GTA
-15-30cm for most of C and E Ont
We'll post an updated forecast tomorrow if needed!
#OnWX
What looked to be a 🔥 end to November is now looking 🥶!
Watching a pattern change that may bring widespread cold and possible snow to S
#Ontario
the last week of November and into December
Strong model/ ensemble support, but we'll keep an eye on it and update next week
#OnWX
From 🔥 to 🥶 (literally)!
Watching the middle of October for a pattern change to cooler than normal temperatures and maybe the first ❄️ flakes!
Risk of the first widespread frost/ freeze of the season
We'll keep an eye on it and post an update as we near closer
#OnWX
#OntAg
Final Snowfall Forecast for tomorrow
-Heaviest snowfall likely across the
#GTA
and
#Hwy401
corridor
-Bust potential near Lk
#Ontario
if mixing occurs
-N Shore Lk
#Erie
still in question due to exact track
-Less snow further N/NE
Will update in the AM if needed!
#OnWX
Next system arrives Monday PM.
Looks like another snow maker with the risk of rain/ mix across parts of SW
#Ontario
.
We'll have an update on this one later today.
#OnWX
Update on the weekend storm👇
-Heaviest snow likely across the
#Hwy401
corridor from
#Hamilton
to
#Cornwall
-Lake Enhancement near
#GTA
likley to boost totals locally
-Brief light snow + flurries for the rest of S
#Ontario
Will Update
#OnWX
Long Range Update 👇
-Mild/ drier pattern looks to continue into the first half of February
-Not a torch by any means!
-Watching mid February (~15th onward) for the return of a colder/ snowier pattern
Will monitor and update!
#OnWX
Updated Snowfall Map for the Upcoming Winter Storm
-Bust potential across the
#GTHA
and
#Niagara
due to mixing potential
-If no mixing/dry slot, 25+cm very possible red hatched area
-15+cm for most of SW
#Ontario
and E Ont
Will update this map tomorrow morning if needed!
#OnWX
One word to describe the weather next week....SPECTACULAR!
Temperatures will range between 15°C to 20°C beginning Monday and lasting until Sunday with little to no precip expected.
Some areas may even crack the 25°C mark!
#OnWX
Updated Forecast for the upcoming Winter Storm
-Overnight models continued with the slight northward shift of the storm
-Worst of the Ice Storm from
#Sarnia
-
#London
-
#Niagara
-Icy Mix for
#GTA
-Snowstorm for most of E
#Ontario
Will post a final update this evening!
#OnWX
Updated Thunderstorm Outlook for tomorrow 👇
Timing- Late afternoon/ Early PM
Zone 1-Heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds
Zone 2- Heavy rain, large hail 1-3cm, winds 70-90km
Zone 3- Heavy Rain, large hail 2-6cm, winds 80-100+km, tornado possible
#OnWX
It is going to THUMP snow Friday Evening...
Likley a tad overdone but look at those hourly snowfall rates being forecasted by the latest NAM 3k (in CM's)!
First image- 8pm, Second-9pm, Third-10pm
#OnWX
Increasing odds of severe thunderstorms across parts of S
#Ontario
on Wednesday.
Most of the region now under a "slight risk" of severe storms (thats a pretty big deal 3 days away).
We'll have an update either later today or tomorrow AM.
#OnWX
Another large spring storm will impact S
#Ontario
on Wednesday.
This storm is expected to be stronger and track further north, bringing the severe storm risk further north.
The
@NOAA
SPC has already highlighted most of S Ont in their Day 4 Outlook for severe storms
#OnWX
This is what happens when you get a Texas low tracking into S
#Ontario
with cold air in place....a classic winter storm.
15+ days out, so it probably won't happen...
#OnWX
Bottomed out at 2.9°C (for about 5min) this morning, east of
#Brussels
.
No visible frost on the grass/ crops but some hard ice on the truck cover!
#OnWx
#Onstorm
Amazing chase day today, which started in
#Goderich
and eventually ended near
#Mitchell
.
Didn't bag anything extreme, but it was nice to see several chasers out in the same area chasing as well (must have been on the right storm!)
#OnWx
#Onstorm
The snowbelts look to really cash in on the snow over the next 5 days.
Widespread 25-35cm across the circled area with some local amounts of 50+cm not out of the question, by Monday PM
#OnWX
Cold, arctic air ✅️
Warm, moist air surging from the south ✅️
Track just south of Lk
#Erie
and
#Ontario
✅️
All the ingredients are there for a powerful snowstorm around the 12th-14th for S Ontario...now we just have to wait 6 days to see if it verifies!
#OnWX
One more snowy system, then we can say farewell to winter?
Decent model agreement on a wintry system impacting S
#Ontario
early next week.
Still 5 days out so things will change, but it's worth keeping an eye on it!
Will update!
#OnWX
Lots of talk about a storm Jan 9th/10th (as there should as it looks fairly potent)
Here's a preliminary map of possible storm tracks👇
Leaning towards a track just west of S
#Ontario
(
#1
) but a track near Lk
#Erie
and Ont (
#2
) is looking possible as well.
#onwx
1/3
Long Range Update 👇
-Fairly quiet week ahead. Temps in the mid single digits with minimal precip.
-Around Feb 10th is when we should start to see this ridge begin to erode
-By Feb 15th a pattern change to colder/ stormier should begin to take place
#OnWX
Final forecast for the Winter Storm tomorrow
-Heaviest snow across E
#Ontario
-Mostly snow with an icy mix to end across the
#GTA
and C Ont (3)
-Icy mix across
#Niagara
and parts of SW Ont (2)
-Mostly rain for Extreme SW Ont
Will update if there's big changes in the AM
#OnWX
Quick snowfall map for tomorrow's system.
Thinking all of SW
#Ontario
,
#GTA
,
#Niagara
and parts of Central Ont have a good chance at seeing 2-5cm.
Will update tonight if there's any changes!
#OnWX
Preliminary forecast for the upcoming Winter Storm
-Mostly a rain event for
#Sarnia
-
#London
-
#Hamilton
, southward
-Moderate FZR event for parts of SW
#Ontario
(2)
-Snow-Icy mix for
#GTA
and Central Ont
-All snow for E Ont
Will post a final forecast tomorrow PM!
#OnWX
Latest HRRR model blankets the
#GTA
/
#Niagara
with a widespread 15-20cm of snow tomorrow.
Kutchera ratio has totals in the 20-25cm range, which I can see happening given temps will be cold enough to support 10-12:1 ratios.
Will watch future trends and update!
#OnWX
Updated Snowfall map for tonights system
-Heaviest snowfall north of the
#Hwy401
corridor
-
#GTA
on the edge of 10+cm (will be very track and temp dependent)
-Less than 5cm for
#Niagara
and extreme SW
#Ontario
Will post another update in the PM if there's any big changes!
#OnWX