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Rohan Gupta
@WealthSolitaire
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CA | Offbeat Investor | Invest with VISION | Knowledge based Wealth Creation | No recommendations | All views for educational purpose | Not SEBI registered
Joined December 2023
๐๐๐๐จ๐ฆ ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฌ (๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐) BIG BREAKING - ๐๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ ๐๐ข๐ง๐ค๐๐๐๐ง ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐ฒ ๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ข๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ (๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ) โ
Another new route addition by Afcom (Maldives), connecting to a Globally Acclaimed Airlines (Etihad) 1. First flight itself at ๐๐% ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ !! - ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ๐ง๐ง๐๐ฌ (๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ฌ๐ฌ) out of 22.5 tonnes flight capacity 2. This schedule will connect to an ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ก๐๐ ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ - one of the leading global airlines โ
Co is ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ a niche segment for itself - no one has ever thought of this or done this before (Cargo from India to other South East Asian countries, which is then by other leading airlines, connected to European nations, other countries). โ
Dry lease operations started on 18th Decโ24 and already ๐ ๐ง๐๐ฐ ๐ซ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ง ๐ ๐ฐ๐๐๐ค๐ฌ: 1๏ธโฃ 30Decโ24: Bangkok route added 2๏ธโฃ 11Janโ25: Maldives route added _____________________________________ Walk the talk by management! People worried about the off take / load factor - but company showcasing within 1st month itself, the strong execution capability 1. High profile sector , 2. Co creating a niche & almost monopoly currently 3. Strong experienced Promoters , 4. Massive massive growth potential 5. If execution continues at current pace, trading at just 10-12x FY26E PE Note: Not a reco, DYODD #Afcom #Multibagger
๐๐๐๐จ๐ฆ ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฌ (๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐) ๐กDry lease operations have started GSSA tie up also done (see ss)- HUGE positive as this ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐% ๐จ๐๐ ๐ญ๐๐ค๐ ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ง๐ญ itself)โ
Mentioning again, ๐ ๐๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐๐๐ฌ๐ ๐๐ข๐ซ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ญ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐-๐๐๐๐๐ซ ๐๐ง๐ง๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐๐๐ (refer my previous tweets for detailed calculations) โถ๏ธ2 commercialised โถ๏ธAnother 2 of IPO funds should be onboarded in next 3 months โถ๏ธAnother 1 aircraft in next 6 months __________________________________ My view on valuation: Aviation w strong entry barriers & limited competition deserves 45-50PE Afcom FY26E should conservatively do 120Cr which translates to 6000Cr MCap โถ๏ธThis is conservative. PAT can go as high as 175-200Cr as well which indicates potential of 10,000Cr MCap co
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No specific reason, at that time felt it ran up too fast too quickly (had gone 3x-4x in 2 months, so I booked) Itโs been consolidating since. Will evaluate for re-entry maybe In general, now with EPC valuations returning to normalcy, I feel these stocks will perform only on actual performance / meeting guidance
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@mak14ag Thanks ๐๐ป Entry I always mention straight away. However, exit when I post stock specific, it creates panic and most followers feel stuck then if they donโt get to exit due to lower circuit (happened in Teerth Gopicon) But such kind of an overall update doesnโt lead to panic
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@Ankit_Goyal07 @bliss_of_self @pareek_kp My info on Afcom till date has always been accurate , you can check my previous tweets. Confident this time as well, info should be correct. 2nd aircraft should start operations next week or maximum by 3rd week of Feb
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There is slight delay in 2nd aircraftโs operations. It is estimated to commence from next week . 1st aircraft is already running 6 schedules a week. No big negative in my view, just slight delay which is inherent risk in this sector (have mentioned risk of delay in each tweet of mine). I continue holding 95% qty.
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There is slight delay in 2nd aircraftโs operations. It is estimated to commence from next week . 1st aircraft is already running 6 schedules a week. No big negative in my view, just slight delay which is inherent risk in this sector (have mentioned risk of delay in each tweet of mine). I continue holding 95% qty.
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@rretailinvestor Yes will post an update. I continue to hold above all. Only might cut down some exposure in Atmastco to deploy in other opportunities
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@ChetanyaMi92042 @Ankit_Goyal07 Holding all. Alpex Iโm expecting very strong Q3 and can see 900-1000 levels once again Mason and SA Tech are strong businesses and can continue holding for long term
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๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ซ๐๐ข๐ฅ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ Q2 Update - Strong set of numbers Revenue 1096Cr (+19% QoQ ; 12% YoY) EBITDA 12.6% PAT 55Crโ
(up 10% QoQ ; 20% YoY) On face of it , Q3 seems decentโฆ.. โฆ..BUT, above numbers ๐๐๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ข๐ง ๐๐๐ง๐ ๐ฅ๐๐๐๐ฌ๐ก ๐จ๐ซ๐๐๐ซ ๐๐ฑ๐๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง (in August) โถ๏ธMeans pace of execution ๐ฉ๐ข๐๐ค๐๐ ๐ฎ๐ฉ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ ๐ง๐ข๐๐ข๐๐๐ง๐ญ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ก ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ๐๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ โ
Can expect ๐๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐๐ซ ๐๐ H2 FY25E: Rev 3500Cr ; PAT 200Cr โ
Additionally, capex plans of ๐๐๐๐๐ซ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ง๐๐ฐ ๐ญ๐จ๐ฐ๐๐ซ ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐๐๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ
๐๐ซ๐๐ง๏ฟฝ๏ฟฝ๏ฟฝ๏ฟฝ๐ซ๐๐ข๐ฅ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ (๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐) Solid, high growth T&D stock at half the valuations While market is worried about Bangladesh issues, ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ๐ข๐ฅ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ ๐ซ๐๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐+ โ
& given full clarity on payment, execution, delays, etc (read in ss 1) Key points to note from the rating report: 1. ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ค ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ ๐จ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐จ๐ง ๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐๐ฅ๐ญ๐ก๐ฒ ๐ฉ๐๐๐ 2. Payments being received on ๐ญ๐ข๐ฆ๐๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ข๐ฌ 3. Political unrest caused delays for ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ 15-20 days ___________________________________ Co also proposing to acquire Gammon Engineers under distressed sale โถ๏ธEntry in ๐๐ฒ๐๐ซ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฐ๐๐ซ : Big potential as Gammon Engineers did ๐ซ๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ซ+ ๐ข๐ง ๐
๐๐๐ โ
Once acquired and turned around, 3yrs down the line Transrail can easily ๐ฆ๐๐ค๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ ๐ง๐๐ฐ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐๐ข๐ญ๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ซ ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก ๐๐% ๐๐๐ _________________________________ Again mentioning, Transrail is at almost ๐ก๐๐ฅ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง of peers like KEC, Kalpataru, Skipper & Transrail has much higher growth triggers in place Could see very quick re rating My previous tweet having the detailed note on Bangladesh issue โถ๏ธ
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