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💯International Football | Odds/Predictions | Spreadsheet enthusiasts | 🎙️ @windowintlpod | National Team Consulting: weglobalfootball @gmail .com
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OFFICIAL: Confirmed Pots for EURO 2024 Qualifying draw
1 - 🇳🇱 🇭🇷 🇪🇸 🇮🇹 🇩🇰 🇵🇹 🇧🇪 🇭🇺🇨🇭 🇵🇱
2 - 🇫🇷 🇦🇹 🇨🇿 🏴 🏴 🇮🇱 🇧🇦 🇷🇸 🏴 🇫🇮
3 - 🇺🇦 🇦🇱 🇳🇴 🇸🇮 🇮🇪 🇮🇸 🇲🇪 🇷🇴 🇸🇪 🇦🇲
4 - 🇬🇪 🇬🇷 🇹🇷 🇰🇿 🇱🇺 🇦🇿 🇽🇰 🇧🇬 🇫🇴 🇲🇰
5 - 🇸🇰 🇬🇧 🇨🇾 🇧🇾 🇱🇹 🇬🇮 🇪🇪 🇱🇻 🇲🇩 🇲🇹
6 - 🇦🇩 🇸🇲 🇱🇮
Draw to be held on October 9
124
292
3K
Highest probability to qualify directly for
#EURO2024
🇵🇹 Portugal - 99.99%
🇫🇷 France - 99.80%
🏴 England - 99.76%
🇷🇸 Serbia - 99.36%
🇨🇭 Switzerland - 99.00%
🏴 Scotland - 98.88%
🇧🇪 Belgium - 97.60%
🇭🇺 Hungary - 95.68%
🇭🇷 Croatia - 95.12%
🇨🇿 Czech Republic - 94.48%
38
188
3K
Highest probability to reach the
#EURO2024
knockout stage
🇩🇪 Germany - 100%
🇪🇸 Spain - 100%
🇵🇹 Portugal - 100%
🇫🇷 France - 99.99%
🇳🇱 Netherlands - 99.99%
🏴 England - 99.96%
🇨🇭 Switzerland - 99.96%
🇦🇹 Austria - 98.00%
🇮🇹 Italy - 88.32%
🇷🇴 Romania - 83.84%
🇹🇷 Türkiye - 82.28%
22
74
3K
Odds to win
#EURO2024
🇳🇱 Netherlands - 16.9%
🇪🇸 Spain - 15.3%
🏴 England - 15.2%
🇩🇪 Germany - 15.1%
🇫🇷 France - 14.5%
🇵🇹 Portugal - 10.5%
🇨🇭 Switzerland - 6.3%
🇹🇷 Türkiye - 6.2%
102
153
3K
Portugal 🇵🇹 most likely Round of 16 opponents:
🏴 Scotland - 23.04%
🇭🇺 Hungary - 22.20%
🇮🇹 Italy - 17.40%
🇸🇮 Slovenia - 17.04%
🇩🇰 Denmark - 6.64%
🇦🇱 Albania - 4.16%
22
62
3K
Qualified for EURO 2024
🇹🇷 Türkiye
🇪🇸 Spain
🏴 Scotland
Enjoy it!
25
133
2K
Austria 🇦🇹 now has a 96.68% chance to advance to the Round of 16. Most likely opponents:
🇷🇴 Romania - 24.2%
🇸🇰 Slovakia - 15.7%
🇧🇪 Belgium - 14.4%
🇺🇦 Ukraine - 13.2%
🏴 England - 6.9%
🇪🇸 Spain - 6.1%
29
78
2K
Most likely R16 matchups through MD2
🇮🇹 ITA v SUI 🇨🇭 - 47.5%
🇳🇱 NED v TUR 🇹🇷 - 31.4%
🇩🇪 GER v DEN 🇩🇰 - 31.0%
🇭🇷 CRO v SUI 🇨🇭 - 29.9%
🇫🇷 FRA v TUR 🇹🇷 - 25.8%
🇩🇪 GER v SRB 🇷🇸 - 24.8%
🇵🇹 POR v HUN 🇭🇺 - 23.8%
🇫🇷 FRA v BEL 🇧🇪 - 23.3%
🇵🇹 POR v SCO 🏴 - 21.1%
🇫🇷 FRA v ROM 🇷🇴 - 20.5%
10
55
2K
EURO 2024 - to qualify directly
A
🇪🇸 Spain - 100%
🏴 Scotland - 100%
D
🇹🇷 Türkiye - 100%
🇭🇷 Croatia - 65.3%
🏴 Wales - 33.9%
E
🇦🇱 Albania - 100%
🇨🇿 Czechia - 95.7%
🇵🇱 Poland - 2.9%
I
🇨🇭 Switzerland - 93.3%
🇮🇱 Israel - 54.0%
🇷🇴 Romania - 52.7%
33
44
1K
Confirmed Pots for EURO 2024 Qualifying draw
1 - 🇳🇱 🇭🇺 🇩🇰 🇪🇸 🇮🇹 🇧🇪 🇭🇷 🇵🇹 🇵🇱
2 - 🏴 🏴 🇧🇦 🇮🇱 🇫🇷 🇦🇹
3 - 🇸🇪 🇦🇲 🇷🇴 🇸🇮 🇮🇪
4 - 🇹🇷 🇬🇪 🇰🇿 🇱🇺 🇬🇷 🇦🇿 🇫🇴
5 - 🇧🇾 🇱🇹 🇬🇮 🇱🇻 🇲🇹 🇲🇩 🇪🇪
6 - 🇱🇮 🇸🇲 🇦🇩
37 of 53 teams pots are known at this point
46
107
1K
Scotland 🏴 should be extra proud of their performance tonight.
Denmark 🇩🇰 had not lost by 2 goals to anyone other than Belgium since 2015.. a span of 73 matches.
5
132
1K
Teams on 9 points through 3 match days in EURO 2024 qualifying
🏴 Scotland
🇫🇷 France
🏴 England
🇨🇭 Switzerland
🇵🇹 Portugal
9
53
1K
Final EURO Pots
Pot 1
🇩🇪 Germany
🇵🇹 Portugal
🇫🇷 France
🇪🇸 Spain
🇧🇪 Belgium
🏴 England
Pot 2
🇭🇺 Hungary
🇹🇷 Turkey
🇷🇴 Romania
🇩🇰 Denmark
🇦🇱 Albania
🇦🇹 Austria
Pot 3
🇳🇱 Netherlands
🏴 Scotland
🇭🇷 Croatia
🇸🇮 Slovenia
🇸🇰 Slovakia
🇨🇿 Czechia
Pot 4
🇮🇹 Italy
🇷🇸 Serbia
🇨🇭 Switzerland
53
98
1K
EURO 2024 Playoffs Probabilities
Path A
🏴 Wales - 62.07%
🇵🇱 Poland - 37.93%
Path B
🇺🇦 Ukraine - 86.27%
🇮🇸 Iceland - 13.73%
Path C
🇬🇪 Georgia - 50.44%
🇬🇷 Greece - 49.56%
Going to be some exciting finals on Tuesday!
57
42
1K
Highest probability to qualify- EURO 2024
🇵🇹 Portugal: 100%
🇫🇷 France: 100%
🏴 England: 99.9%
🇦🇹 Austria: 99.6%
🇧🇪 Belgium: 99.4%
🇭🇺 Hungary: 99.3%
🇭🇷 Croatia: 99.2%
🏴 Scotland: 99.1%
🇷🇸 Serbia: 99.0%
🇩🇰 Denmark: 97.6%
🇪🇸 Spain: 97.2%
🇨🇭 Switzerland: 96.8%
🇳🇱 Netherlands: 94.9%
26
57
1K
Daniel James 🏴 with one of the best goals you’ll see!!
41
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1K
Your EURO 2024 field is set
Group A: 🇩🇪 🏴 🇭🇺 🇨🇭
Group B: 🇪🇸 🇭🇷 🇮🇹 🇦🇱
Group C: 🇸🇮 🇩🇰 🇷🇸 🏴
Group D: 🇵🇱 🇳🇱 🇦🇹 🇫🇷
Group E: 🇧🇪 🇸🇰 🇷🇴 🇺🇦
Group F: 🇹🇷 🇬🇪 🇵🇹 🇨🇿
See you on the 14th of June in Germany!
8
80
1K
Group E to advance
#EURO2024
🇧🇪 Belgium - 79.64%
🇷🇴 Romania - 77.96%
🇸🇰 Slovakia - 73.84%
🇺🇦 Ukraine - 62.24%
93.7% chance this group sends 3 teams to the knockout round
10
35
1K
Chances to qualify for World Cup 2022 - CONCACAF
🇨🇦 Canada - 99.5%
🇲🇽 Mexico - 99.4%
🇺🇸 USA - 98.8%
🇵🇦 Panama - 58.0%
🇨🇷 Costa Rica - 17.1%
🇯🇲 Jamaica - 3.2%
🇸🇻 El Salvador - 0.3%
🇭🇳 Honduras - 0.0%
23
144
1K
With England drawing against Ukraine, Scotland 🏴 is now officially the only team that can qualify for EURO 2024 this window.
They will do so if Norway 🇳🇴 draws Georgia 🇬🇪.
9
86
1K
The referee in Ukraine 🇺🇦 v Italy 🇮🇹 has lost the plot. A clear and obvious penalty for Ukraine not given. Wow.
55
63
1K
Jordan’s 🇯🇴 form before the Asian Cup
L to Serbia 🇷🇸
L to Norway 🇳🇴
L to Azerbaijan 🇦🇿
L to Iran 🇮🇷
D w Tajikistan 🇹🇯
L to Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦
L to Japan 🇯🇵
1 point from 7 matches. Outscored 23-6. An unbelievable turnaround. They’re 1 match away from being crowned champions of Asia
7
194
952
Post-draw EURO Playoffs Odds
Path A
🏴 Wales - 44.5%
🇵🇱 Poland - 34.6%
🇫🇮 Finland - 17.7%
🇪🇪 Estonia - 3.2%
Path B
🇺🇦 Ukraine - 63.3%
🇮🇱 Israel - 19.3%
🇧🇦 Bosnia - 11.8%
🇮🇸 Iceland - 5.6%
Path C
🇬🇷 Greece - 46.2%
🇬🇪 Georgia - 42.7%
🇱🇺 Luxembourg - 7.4%
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan - 3.7%
34
66
952
Updated odds to reach the knockout stage:
🇦🇹 Austria - 99.9%
🇹🇷 Türkiye - 93.7%
🇭🇺 Hungary - 83.2%
🇧🇪 Belgium - 79.7%
🇷🇴 Romania - 78.8%
🇸🇰 Slovakia - 75.2%
🇩🇰 Denmark - 68.8%
8
19
950
Our projected EURO 2024 playoff winners are
🏴 Wales
🇺🇦 Ukraine
🇬🇷 Greece
32
40
934
Pots Confirmed - EURO 2024
Pot 1
🇩🇪 Germany
🇵🇹 Portugal
🇫🇷 France
🇪🇸 Spain
🇧🇪 Belgium
🏴 England
Pot 2
🇭🇺 Hungary
🇩🇰 Denmark
🇦🇱 Albania
🇦🇹 Austria
Pot 3
🏴 Scotland
🇸🇮 Slovenia
🇸🇰 Slovakia
🇨🇿 Czech Republic
🇳🇱 Netherlands
Pot 4
🇷🇸 Serbia
18
31
928
🇵🇱 Poland most likely playoff opponents
🇪🇪 Estonia - 70.34%
🏴 Wales - 25.69%
🇮🇹 Italy - 0.90%
🇫🇮 Finland - 0.79%
🇺🇦 Ukraine - 0.79%
🇮🇸 Iceland - 0.79%
🇨🇿 Czech Republic - 0.70%
9
19
854
EURO 2024 Pot Projections (9 September)
Pot 1: 🇩🇪 🇵🇹🇫🇷🏴🇧🇪🇭🇺
Pot 2: 🏴🇭🇷🇨🇭🇨🇿🇩🇰🇪🇸
Pot 3: 🇳🇱🇦🇹🇷🇸🇵🇱🇫🇮🇮🇹
Pot 4: 🇹🇷🇮🇱🇸🇰 Playoff Winners
#EURO2024
58
23
816
Pre-draw EURO playoffs qualifying odds
🇬🇷 Greece - 54.4%
🇺🇦 Ukraine - 53.6%
🇵🇱 Poland - 40.7%
🏴 Wales - 37.2%
🇬🇪 Georgia - 34.7%
🇮🇱 Israel - 22.3%
🇫🇮 Finland - 18.2%
🇧🇦 Bosnia - 15.3%
🇮🇸 Iceland - 8.4%
🇱🇺 Luxembourg - 5.6%
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan - 5.2%
🇪🇪 Estonia - 4.4%
29
29
810
Group A projected points
#EURO2024
🏴 Scotland - 18.04
🇪🇸 Spain - 16.94
🇳🇴 Norway - 10.96
🇬🇪 Georgia - 9.58
🇨🇾 Cyprus - 1.19
14
36
800
Teams that can qualify for EURO 2024 this window
#EURO2024
🏴 Scotland
🏴 England
13
43
795
Slovakia 🇸🇰 has qualified for EURO 2024!
Luxembourg 🇱🇺 heads to the playoffs, Iceland 🇮🇸 looks likely headed to the playoffs.
Ireland 🇮🇪 has been officially eliminated from the competition.
17
23
736
OFFICIAL: EURO 2024 playoffs
Path A
🇵🇱 v 🇪🇪
🏴 v 🇫🇮 / 🇺🇦 / 🇮🇸
Path B
🇮🇱 v 🇺🇦 / 🇮🇸
🇧🇦 v 🇫🇮 / 🇺🇦
Path C
🇬🇪 v 🇱🇺
🇬🇷 v 🇰🇿
🇫🇮, 🇺🇦, 🇮🇸 are in a draw Thursday with one going to Path A to play at Wales 🏴.
Home pairing for the finals in each path also to be drawn Thursday.
42
75
685
Most likely Round of 16 matches (24 June)
🇮🇹 ITA v SUI 🇨🇭 - 100%
🇵🇹 POR v HUN 🇭🇺 - 82.4%
🇩🇰 DEN v GER 🇩🇪 - 42.1%
🇪🇸 ESP v SVK 🇸🇰 - 31.7%
🇹🇷 TUR v NED 🇳🇱 - 30.3%
🇩🇪 GER v SRB 🇷🇸 - 28.4%
🇪🇸 ESP v UKR 🇺🇦 - 27.4%
🇦🇹 AUT v ENG 🏴 - 23.5%
🇫🇷 FRA v BEL 🇧🇪 - 22.5%
🇫🇷 FRA v ROM 🇷🇴 - 22%
8
29
687
UEFA World Cup Playoffs
Home
Portugal 🇵🇹
Scotland 🏴
Italy 🇮🇹
Russia 🇷🇺
Sweden 🇸🇪
Wales 🏴
Away
Turkey 🇹🇷
Poland 🇵🇱
North Macedonia 🇲🇰
Ukraine 🇺🇦
Austria 🇦🇹
Czech Republic 🇨🇿
Draw to be held on 26 November. Russia and Ukraine cannot be drawn together.
47
138
671
Austria 🇦🇹 most likely Round of 16 opponent
🏴 England - 18.8%
🇧🇪 Belgium - 13.1%
🇷🇴 Romania - 12.8%
🇪🇸 Spain - 12.6%
🇸🇮 Slovenia - 10.2%
26
21
680
To qualify for the World Cup - CONMEBOL (28 January)
🇧🇷 Brazil* - 100%
🇦🇷 Argentina* - 100%
🇪🇨 Ecuador - 97.7%
🇺🇾 Uruguay - 71.9%
🇵🇪 Peru - 65.7%
🇨🇴 Colombia - 26.5%
🇨🇱 Chile - 5.1%
🇧🇴 Bolivia - 0.3%
🇵🇾 Paraguay - 0.0%
🇻🇪 Venezuela - 0.0%
9
162
621
Our projected UEFA playoff winners:
Wales 🏴
Russia 🇷🇺
Portugal 🇵🇹
56
51
597
Round of 16 at
#EURO2024
🇪🇸 Spain v Georgia 🇬🇪
🇩🇪 Germany v Denmark 🇩🇰
🇵🇹 Portugal v Slovenia 🇸🇮
🇫🇷 France v Belgium 🇧🇪
🇷🇴 Romania v Netherlands 🇳🇱
🇦🇹 Austria v Türkiye 🇹🇷
🏴 England v Slovakia 🇸🇰
🇨🇭 Switzerland v Italy 🇮🇹
12
81
617
EURO 2024 Playoffs
Path A
🏴 Wales - 48.15%
🇵🇱 Poland - 36.06%
🇫🇮 Finland - 13.06%
🇪🇪 Estonia - 2.74%
Path B
🇺🇦 Ukraine - 64.02%
🇮🇱 Israel - 18.36%
🇧🇦 Bosnia - 10.81%
🇮🇸 Iceland - 6.80%
Path C
🇬🇷 Greece - 45.18%
🇬🇪 Georgia - 43.91%
🇱🇺 Luxembourg - 7.03%
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan - 3.88%
36
33
609
EURO 2024 - to qualify directly
A
🇪🇸 Spain - 99.4%
🏴 Scotland - 97.0%
🇳🇴 Norway - 3.6%
D
🇹🇷 Türkiye - 97.9%
🇭🇷 Croatia - 90.4%
🏴 Wales - 11.4%
E
🇦🇱 Albania - 99.8%
🇨🇿 Czechia - 55.1%
🇵🇱 Poland - 44.4%
I
🇨🇭 Switzerland - 98.8%
🇮🇱 Israel - 61.4%
🇷🇴 Romania - 39.8%
14
37
593
Based on our latest projections, we'd have the EURO 2024 playoffs as follows:
Path A
🏴 Wales
🇪🇪 Estonia
Path B
🇧🇦 Bosnia-Herzegovina
Path C
🇬🇪 Georgia
🇬🇷 Greece
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan
🇱🇺 Luxembourg
Draw for A/B
🇺🇦 Ukraine
🇮🇸 Iceland
🇳🇴 Norway
🇸🇮 Slovenia
🇮🇪 Ireland
19
25
588
Projected EURO 2024 playoffs
Path A
🇵🇱 v 🇪🇪
🏴 v 🇫🇮 / 🇺🇦 / 🇮🇸
Path B
🇮🇱 v 🇺🇦 / 🇮🇸
🇧🇦 v 🇫🇮 / 🇺🇦
Path C
🇬🇪 v 🇱🇺
🇬🇷 v 🇰🇿
🇫🇮, 🇺🇦, 🇮🇸 are in a draw Thursday with one going to Path A. If Wales 🏴 qualifies ahead of Croatia 🇭🇷, Croatia plays Estonia and Poland slides down.
18
32
578
OFFICIAL: Pots for the World Cup 2022 Draw to be held this Friday, April 1st
Pot 1: 🇶🇦 🇧🇷 🇧🇪 🇫🇷 🇦🇷 🏴 🇪🇸 🇵🇹
Pot 2: 🇲🇽 🇳🇱 🇩🇰 🇩🇪 🇺🇾 🇨🇭 🇺🇸 🇭🇷
Pot 3: 🇸🇳 🇮🇷 🇯🇵 🇲🇦 🇷🇸 🇵🇱 🇰🇷 🇹🇳
Pot 4: 🇨🇦 🇨🇲 🇪🇨 🇸🇦 🇬🇭 + 3 playoff winners
29
117
562
Cannot understate the importance of Wales 🏴 v Finland 🇫🇮 tomorrow.
If proj. group winners France 🇫🇷, Belgium 🇧🇪, Spain 🇪🇸, Italy 🇮🇹 finish top 2 in their qualifying groups, the group winner (Wales or Finland) goes to the World Cup Playoffs.
A 4 team tournament to the World Cup
15
88
567
SCENES as Iceland 🇮🇸 qualify for their first WORLD CUP!! Absolutely incredible!!
3
219
547
At 99.76%, Albania 🇦🇱 now has the 5th highest probability of any team to qualify for EURO 2024.
2
32
554
Through 4 match days, Scotland 🏴 has more points than the other 4 teams in the group combined.
A win over Cyprus, a Norway-Georgia draw, and a Georgia loss to Spain in September will see Scotland punch their EURO 2024 ticket after just 6 of 10 match days.
9
66
561
Confirmed Pots for EURO 2024 Qualifying draw
1 - 🇳🇱 🇭🇺 🇩🇰 🇪🇸 🇮🇹 🇧🇪 🇭🇷 🇵🇹 🇵🇱
2 - 🏴 🏴 🇧🇦 🇮🇱 🇫🇷 🇦🇹
3 - 🇸🇪 🇦🇲 🇷🇴 🇸🇮 🇮🇪 🇲🇪 🇮🇸 🇦🇱
4 - 🇹🇷 🇬🇪 🇰🇿 🇱🇺 🇬🇷 🇦🇿 🇫🇴 🇧🇬 🇲🇰
5 - 🇧🇾 🇱🇹 🇬🇮 🇱🇻 🇲🇹 🇲🇩 🇪🇪 🇸🇰
6 - 🇱🇮 🇸🇲 🇦🇩
43 of 53 teams pots are known at this point
26
53
549
We’ll have more details shortly, but wanted to get this out to the Scotland 🏴 supporters.
We give Scotland 🏴 a 95.64% chance to qualify for EURO 2024 directly.
#EURO2024
24
49
537
Wales 🏴 most likely playoff opponents
🇵🇱 Poland - 25.69%
🇫🇮 Finland - 22.88%
🇺🇦 Ukraine - 22.88%
🇮🇸 Iceland - 22.88%
🇨🇿 Czech Republic - 1.72%
🇮🇹 Italy - 0.64%
To qualify directly - 3.32%
16
20
529
Pots Confirmed - EURO 2024
Pot 1
🇩🇪 Germany
🇵🇹 Portugal
🇫🇷 France
🇧🇪 Belgium
🇪🇸 Spain
Pot 2
🇭🇺 Hungary
🇩🇰 Denmark
🇦🇹 Austria
Pot 3
🏴 Scotland
🇸🇰 Slovakia
17
18
527
Teams mathematically guaranteed, at minimum, a EURO playoff spot:
🇳🇱 Netherlands
🇭🇷 Croatia
🇮🇹 Italy
🇩🇰 Denmark
🇮🇱 Israel
🇧🇦 Bosnia-Herzegovina
🇷🇸 Serbia
🇫🇮 Finland
🇬🇪 Georgia
🇬🇷 Greece
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan
🇱🇺 Luxembourg
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And last but not least, our full CONMEBOL update.
Ecuador 🇪🇨 likely has done enough to qualify. They advanced in all 2,500 simulations.
Uruguay 🇺🇾 had a very strong window and looks to be in great shape for an automatic qualifier.
We favor Peru 🇵🇪 to claim the playoff spot
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It’s about time for Scotland 🏴 to start thinking about winning the group and not just qualifying.
Winning the group guarantees Pot 2, and the 5 best group winners will be seeded for the EURO 2024 draw.
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Official: AFC World Cup Qualifying - Round 3 Pots
Pot 1:
🇯🇵 Japan
🇮🇷 Iran
🇰🇷 Korea Republic
Pot 2:
🇦🇺 Australia
🇶🇦 Qatar
🇮🇶 Iraq
Pot 3:
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan
🇯🇴 Jordan
Pot 4:
🇦🇪 UAE
🇴🇲 Oman
🇧🇭 Bahrain
Pot 5:
🇨🇳 China
🇵🇸 Palestine
🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan
Pot 6:
🇰🇵 Korea DPR
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Most likely Round of 16 matches (25 June)
🇮🇹 ITA v SUI 🇨🇭 - 100%
🇩🇪 GER v DEN 🇩🇰- 100%
🇵🇹 POR v HUN 🇭🇺 - 62.6%
🏴 ENG v NED 🇳🇱 - 62.6%
🇦🇹 AUT v TUR 🇹🇷 - 60.0%
🇫🇷 FRA v BEL 🇧🇪 - 40.1%
🇦🇹 AUT v CZE 🇨🇿 - 39.2%
🇫🇷 FRA v ROM 🇷🇴 - 39.2%
🇵🇹 POR v SVN 🇸🇮 - 37.4%
🇪🇸 ESP v TUR 🇹🇷 - 31.0%
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There will be 3 matches on Monday to decide spots at EURO 2024
🇮🇹 Italy v Ukraine 🇺🇦
🇨🇿 Czechia v Moldova 🇲🇩
🇸🇮 Slovenia v Kazakhstan 🇰🇿
In all 3, the team on the right must win to qualify. Any other result will see the team on the left qualify.
Hope your calendar is cleared.
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To qualify for World Cup 2022 - CONCACAF (2 February)
🇨🇦 Canada - 100%
🇲🇽 Mexico - 99.63%
🇺🇸 USA - 98.03%
🇵🇦 Panama - 50.34%
🇨🇷 Costa Rica - 30.89%
🇸🇻 El Salvador - 0.06%
e - 🇯🇲 Jamaica - 0.0%
e - 🇭🇳 Honduras - 0.0%
Canada qualified directly in all 2,500 simulations.
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For our Wales 🏴 friends, Italy's win over Ukraine significantly bumped Wales chances to host a playoff semifinal. We now give that a 61.0% chance of happening.
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We give Hungary 🇭🇺 a 64.3% chance to advance.
ACDE is still the most likely combination of Groups to send 3rd place teams at 24.7%.
ADEF at 20.1%
ABDE at 16.3%
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Incredible win for Wales 🏴 tonight! 2 more wins to qualify.
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Capacity at Levi’s Stadium is 68,500.
This is kickoff for Ecuador 🇪🇨 v Venezuela 🇻🇪 at Copa America.
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If Scotland 🏴 advance, we give them a 72.7% probability to play Portugal 🇵🇹.
Hungary 🇭🇺 has similar numbers at around 70%.
#EURO2024
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Confirmed Pots for EURO 2024 Qualifying draw
1 - 🇳🇱 🇭🇺 🇩🇰 🇪🇸 🇮🇹 🇧🇪 🇭🇷
2 - 🏴 🏴 🇧🇦
3 - 🇸🇪 🇦🇲 🇷🇴
4 - 🇹🇷 🇬🇪 🇰🇿 🇱🇺 🇬🇷
5 - 🇧🇾 🇱🇹 🇬🇮 🇱🇻 🇲🇹 🇲🇩 🇪🇪
6 - 🇱🇮 🇸🇲 🇦🇩
28 of 53 teams pots are known at this point
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Big winners of the draw are
🏴 Wales - avoided Ukraine, potentially host final
🇺🇦 Ukraine - got to stay in path B and potentially don’t go away for the final
🇬🇪 Georgia - potentially host final
The draw didn’t materially skew any team’s average qualifying from before the draw
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EURO 2024 Group F
🇵🇹 Portugal
🇹🇷 Turkey
🇨🇿 Czechia
🇬🇪 Georgia
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FINAL EURO 2024 Qualifying Standings
6 teams did not lose in qualifying:
🇫🇷 France
🏴 England
🇧🇪 Belgium
🇭🇺 Hungary
🇷🇴 Romania
🇵🇹 Portugal
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3 places at EURO on the line
🇺🇦 Ukraine v Italy 🇮🇹
🇨🇿 Czech Republic v Moldova 🇲🇩
🇸🇮 Slovenia v Kazakhstan 🇰🇿
Enjoy it!
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7 teams are confirmed for the playoffs:
🇵🇱 Poland
🇮🇱 Israel
🇧🇦 Bosnia-Herzegovina
🇫🇮 Finland
🇬🇪 Georgia
🇬🇷 Greece
🇱🇺 Luxembourg
Guaranteed at least a playoff place
🇭🇷 Croatia
🇮🇹 Italy
🇨🇿 Czech Republic
🏴 Wales
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan
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Most likely R16 matchups (23 June)
🇮🇹 ITA v SUI 🇨🇭 - 60.1%
🇵🇹 POR v HUN 🇭🇺- 45.9%
🇩🇪 GER v DEN 🇩🇰 - 40.7%
🇭🇷 CRO v SUI 🇨🇭 - 38.3%
🇳🇱 NED v TUR 🇹🇷 - 30.7%
🇩🇪 GER v SRB 🇷🇸 - 29.0%
🇫🇷 FRA v TUR 🇹🇷 - 26.1%
🇫🇷 FRA v BEL 🇧🇪 - 22.9%
🏴 ENG v GER 🇩🇪 - 22.2%
🇵🇹 POR v ITA 🇮🇹 - 21.6%
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France 🇫🇷 at
#EURO2024
in the 90 minutes of regulation
1-0 (OG)
0-0
1-1 (Penalty, Penalty)
1-0 (OG)
0-0
0 total goals scored by France or its opposition from open play in 5 matches.
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With our current projected
#EURO2024
field, the 12 playoff teams would be:
🇮🇱 Israel
🇧🇦 Bosnia-Herzegovina
🇫🇮 Finland
🇺🇦 Ukraine
🇮🇸 Iceland
🇳🇴 Norway
🇮🇪 Republic of Ireland
🇬🇪 Georgia
🇬🇷 Greece
🇹🇷 Turkey
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan
🇪🇪 Estonia
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It’s 12 points from 12 for Scotland 🏴 and they’re cruising to the Euros!
Only Scotland 🏴, England 🏴, France 🇫🇷 and. Portugal 🇵🇹 sit on 12 points through 4 match days.
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FIFA has finally, officially, announced the FIFA Series, to be played in March
Algeria: 🇩🇿 🇧🇴 🇦🇩 🇿🇦
Azerbaijan: 🇦🇿 🇲🇳 🇧🇬 🇹🇿
Saudi Arabia A: 🇨🇻 🇬🇶 🇰🇭 🇬🇾
Saudi Arabia B: 🇧🇲 🇬🇳 🇧🇳 🇻🇺
Sri Lanka: 🇱🇰 🇵🇬 🇨🇫 🇧🇹
Which are you most excited for?
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European Finals:
Champions League:
Dortmund 🇩🇪 v Real Madrid 🇪🇸
Europa League:
Leverkusen 🇩🇪 v Atalanta 🇮🇹
Conference League:
Fiorentina 🇮🇹 v Olympiacos 🇬🇷
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OFFICIAL: EURO 2024 playoffs
Path A
🇵🇱 v 🇪🇪
🏴 v 🇫🇮 (hosts final)
Path B
🇮🇱 v 🇮🇸
🇧🇦 v 🇺🇦 (hosts final)
Path C
🇬🇪 v 🇱🇺 (hosts final)
🇬🇷 v 🇰🇿
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EURO 2024 - to qualify directly
B
🇫🇷 France - ✅
🇳🇱 Netherlands - 99.9%
🇬🇷 Greece - 0.1%
F
🇧🇪 Belgium - ✅
🇦🇹 Austria - ✅
J
🇵🇹 Portugal - ✅
🇸🇰 Slovakia - 98.9%
🇱🇺 Luxembourg - 1.0%
🇮🇸 Iceland - 0.1%
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Romania 🇷🇴 has topped both their qualifying group and
#EURO2024
group.
Only Portugal 🇵🇹, Spain 🇪🇸, England 🏴 also accomplished this
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It’s Georgia 🇬🇪!!!! They’ve qualified for EURO 2024 in dramatic fashion in penalties.
For the first time, Georgia 🇬🇪 qualifies for the finals!!
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Wales 🏴 chance to host a playoff semifinal:
Win v Belgium 🇧🇪 - 100%
Draw v Belgium 🇧🇪 - 99.4%
Loss v Belgium 🇧🇪 - 0.0%
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Most likely hosts - UEFA Playoff Semifinals
Poland 🇵🇱 - 89.6%
Serbia 🇷🇸 - 86.7%
Switzerland 🇨🇭 - 73.5%
Spain 🇪🇸 - 46.4%
Sweden 🇸🇪 - 43.2%
Scotland 🏴 - 42.0%
Russia 🇷🇺 - 41.5%
Wales 🏴 - 34.0%
Croatia 🇭🇷 - 31.9%
Italy 🇮🇹 - 24.7%
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EURO 2024 Pot Projections (15 October)
Pot 1: 🇩🇪🇵🇹🇫🇷🇧🇪🇪🇸🇭🇺
Pot 2: 🏴🇩🇰🇦🇱🇹🇷🇨🇭🏴
Pot 3: 🇦🇹🇳🇱🇷🇸🇮🇹🇭🇷🇨🇿
Pot 4: 🇸🇮🇸🇰🇮🇱 Playoff Winners
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Austria 🇦🇹 does it and tops Group F! On to the knockout stage where they’ll play one of Turkey 🇹🇷 (61%), Czechia 🇨🇿 (38%) or Georgia 🇬🇪 (1%).
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Group A Average Projected Points -
#EURO2024
🏴 Scotland - 19.01
🇪🇸 Spain - 16.86
🇳🇴 Norway - 10.79
🇬🇪 Georgia - 9.22
🇨🇾 Cyprus - 1.06
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AFCON Group Winners
🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea
🇨🇻 Cape Verde
🇸🇳 Senegal
🇦🇴 Angola
What a wild Group Stage it’s been.
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With Spain’s 🇪🇸 win over Greece, Wales 🏴 has finally, officially, mathematically clinched (at worst) a spot in the UEFA World Cup playoffs
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🇫🇮 Finland most likely playoff opponents
🇧🇦 Bosnia-Herzegovina - 76.34%
🏴 Wales - 22.88%
🇵🇱 Poland - 0.79%
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Romania 🇷🇴 and Switzerland 🇨🇭 have qualified for EURO 2024.
Norway 🇳🇴 has been eliminated. Israel 🇮🇱 and Bosnia 🇧🇦 will be the top two in the Path B playoffs.
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Both Ivory Coast 🇨🇮 and Jordan 🇯🇴 finished 3rd in their group and reached the final of AFCON and the Asian Cup, respectively.
The only other time a 3rd place team reached the final of a 24 team continental tournament was Portugal 🇵🇹 when they won EURO 2016.
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Most likely
#EURO2024
Round of 16 matches
🇮🇹 Italy v Switzerland 🇨🇭 - 46.3%
🇭🇷 Croatia v Switzerland 🇨🇭 - 32.2%
🇩🇪 Germany v Denmark 🇩🇰 - 32.1%
🇩🇪 Germany v Serbia 🇷🇸 - 24.1%
🇳🇱 Netherlands v Turkey 🇹🇷 - 22.3%
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UEFA Playoffs, what we know:
Home:
Portugal 🇵🇹
Russia 🇷🇺
Away:
North Macedonia 🇲🇰
Austria 🇦🇹
TBD:
Sweden 🇸🇪
Scotland 🏴
Wales 🏴
Czech Republic 🇨🇿
Group C, D, G, I still in play
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EURO 2024 - to qualify directly
C
🏴 England - ✅
🇮🇹 Italy - 69.3%
🇺🇦 Ukraine - 30.7%
G
🇷🇸 Serbia - 99.96%
🇭🇺 Hungary - 99.36%
🇲🇪 Montenegro - 0.68%
H
🇩🇰 Denmark - 99.68%
🇸🇮 Slovenia - 93.6%
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan - 6.72%
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The FIFA Series will be streamed on FIFA+. Matches include:
🇨🇻 Cape Verde v Guyana 🇬🇾
🇬🇳 Guinea v Vanuatu 🇻🇺
🇧🇬 Bulgaria v Tanzania 🇹🇿
🇨🇫 CAR v Bhutan 🇧🇹
🇱🇰 Sri Lanka v PNG 🇵🇬
🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea v Cambodia 🇰🇭
🇧🇲 Bermuda v Brunei 🇧🇳
🇩🇿 Algeria v Bolivia 🇧🇴
What an event!
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Highest probability to host a EURO 2024 Playoff Semifinal:
🇬🇪 Georgia: 100%
🇧🇦 Bosnia-Herzegovina: 99.0%
🇬🇷 Greece: 81.1%
🇵🇱 Poland: 79.2%
🇮🇱 Israel: 46.0%
🇫🇮 Finland: 41.9%
🏴 Wales: 37.3%
🇭🇷 Croatia: 34.7%
🇮🇹 Italy: 20.4%
🇳🇱 Netherlands: 18.9%
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan: 18.6%
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World Cup Group F teams this international window:
🇧🇪 Belgium 2 - 1 Wales 🏴
🇭🇷 Croatia 2 - 1 Denmark 🇩🇰
🇲🇦 Morocco 2 - 0 Chile 🇨🇱
🇨🇦 Canada 2 - 0 Qatar 🇶🇦
This may be one of the most exciting groups in Qatar.
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EURO 2024 draw
Group A: 🇩🇪 🇭🇺 🏴 🇨🇭
Group B: 🇪🇸 🇦🇱 🇭🇷 🇮🇹
Group C: 🏴 🇩🇰 🇸🇮 🇷🇸
Group D: 🇫🇷 🇦🇹 🇳🇱 Playoff A
Group E: 🇧🇪 🇷🇴 🇸🇰 Playoff B
Group F: 🇵🇹 🇹🇷 🇨🇿 Playoff C
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Taken another look at our Pot Projections for EURO 2024. Our group projections will now come first, then point projections. With this update:
Pot 1: 🇩🇪🇵🇹🇫🇷🏴🏴🇧🇪
Pot 2: 🇭🇺🇭🇷🇨🇭🇩🇰🇨🇿🇪🇸
Pot 3: 🇳🇱🇷🇸🇦🇹🇫🇮🇵🇱🇮🇹
Pot 4: 🇹🇷🇮🇱🇸🇰 Playoff Winners
*6 team groups points don't count v last place
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Projected UEFA World Cup playoffs (12 November)
Home:
Serbia 🇷🇸
Sweden 🇸🇪
Croatia 🇭🇷
Switzerland 🇨🇭
Poland 🇵🇱
Scotland 🏴
Away:
Wales 🏴
Norway 🇳🇴
North Macedonia 🇲🇰
Ukraine 🇺🇦
Austria 🇦🇹
Czech Republic 🇨🇿
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