Damage Control
@WarInUkraineYet
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Analysis & News about Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the former U.S.S.R and the Mediterranean. (Reporting ≠ Supporting) ALT: @Damaged_Control
Joined February 2022
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Somehow managed to break my description, however...
I now have an alternate account for personal opinions/political stuff
So, uh
Follow
@Damaged_Control
if that's your cup of tea, can't promise it'll be active
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So the Iranian President:
- Crashed a helicopter
- In a mountain
- Inhabited solely by packs of wolves
- During a snowstorm and heavy fog
Is this statistically speaking the most "technically not dead" dead person in human history?
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2023 Gazantiep Earthquake:
An Exercise in Corruption (2).
Let's talk more about these extremely sketchy construction amnesties, and what they offered.
In very simple terms, the Turkish government allowed constructors to be retroactively exempt buildings with a small fee.
1/18
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Pantsir systems being placed, one in a high-rise in central Moscow and one in the country's Ministry of Defence.
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Apparently calling on PoWs to be executed and being a ridiculously massive source of misinformation is bad, actually.
Big bada boom!
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This is a massive win for everyone who stands for any sort of truthfulness, as long as the hundreds of volunteers putting everything on the line for Ukraine's Independence.
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There's *some* VERY unconfirmed sources saying that Lysychansk, Luhansk Oblast, has been retaken by Ukraine.
Don't take it as gospel, the only fact that we have is Ukraine crossing the Siverskyi Donets river, however that's not quite the same as a stunning advance like that.
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Anti-mobilisation protest in Dagestan, Russia.
Machine gun fire can be heard, as police officers attempt to disperse the protesters.
Dagestan is a very troublesome region for Russia, previously being home to a long-standing Islamic insurgency.
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Russian sources say that Kupyansk has been completely surrendered to Ukrainian forces.
While the Russian Armed Forces initially retreated from West Kupyansk, and evacuated behind the Oskil River, it seems that they've now also lost East Kupyansk as well.
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Putin is beginning his speech, I will post everything interesting in this thread:
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What is reportedly a military jet has crashed into a residential building in the port city of Yeysk, Krasnodar Oblast.
Currently unknown how the plane fell or the number of casualties.
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The main issue for the Russian soldiers north of the Dnieper, charged with safeguarding Kherson, isn't Ukraine's Armed Forces.
It's attrition and a lack of supplies that's taking it's toll, as the conditions they created, along with UA strikes, make holding Kherson unattainable.
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This is what the Wehrmacht accomplished with 3,500 tanks within 6 months of Operation Barbarossa.
The Soviet Army at full readiness.
In 1943, The Wehrmacht will have 7,000 tanks.
The Soviet military is significantly degraded and de-energized.
The outcome is easy to predict.
This is what the Russian Armed Forces accomplished with 200,000 soldiers within 2 weeks of the SMO. The Ukrainian army at full readiness.
In 2023, the RAF have 500,000 soldiers.
The Ukrainian military is significantly degraded and de-energized.
The outcome is easy to predict.
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6 journalists from CNN and Sky News have had their work permits in Ukraine revoked by the Office of President Zelensky, due to their reporting on Kherson.
According to the announcement, their press permits were invalidated after breaking Ukraine's regulations on reporters.
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CNN reports that Elon Musk is considering pulling the plug on Starlink coverage for Ukraine, with SpaceX saying it can longer support it.
Reportedly, the company will stop providing coverage due to financial restrictions, unless the Pentagon offers $10m per month to SpaceX.
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This is a map of arson attacks against military structures, mainly enlistment offices, across Russia.
37 were documented before the announcement of partial mobilisation, while 17 have happened since President Putin's address to the nation.
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Now that I've drawn two arrows, the fate of the city is sealed.
Russian forces were mounting a strong defence on the outskirts of the city.
If the city is functionally encircled, how many units are still in it?
Most importantly, how many are untrained, ill-equipped and, probably, unwilling to fight?
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Kazakhstan has signed a deal to export it's oil to Europe by circumventing Russian pipelines.
Kazakhstani oil will pass through the Caspian Sea, then Azerbaijan, Georgia and finally Turkey.
Kazakhstan has made clear it's intent to alleviate world markets by exporting oil.
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Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister warns Ukrainian citizens to urgently evacuate the occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblast.
She says that due to a planned Ukrainian offensive, civilian lives would be put at risk and that "Our artillery must work".
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Very worrying "final message" by an Al Jazeera correspondent stranded in Gaza.
Likely quite a few journalists stuck in a similar, very dangerous, situation inside the Strip.
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The first cars moving on the Kerch Bridge again, going from Crimea to Russia.
You can see how the burned out rail carts are still there, on the left-hand side.
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The Insider reports that there's a mass resignation ongoing inside Moscow's government, with those working in the city's public services quitting en mass.
Reportedly, this is after a 28yo department head in the city's government died in Ukraine, after being mobilised last month.
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Russian war correspondents now saying that the entirety of Lyman has fallen to Ukrainian forces.
The city became part of Russia only 22 hours ago, when Putin signed the annexation of the Donetsk People's Republic.
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TASS reports that Putin has signed into law a bill, introducing these sentences:
- Up to 10 yrs for voluntary surrender
- Up to 10 yrs for refusing to fight
- Up to 10 yrs for desertion
- Up to 15 yrs for pillaging
- Up to 10 yrs for failing to meet state defence order contracts
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Winter will be tough.
Not only for Europe due to the rally of electricity and gas prices, but also for Ukraine, as the war enters a new phase.
I believe the Winter of 2022/23 will be the most challenging for the nation, as both military and economical issues reach their zenith.
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Mini Thread:
Disaster Diplomacy
Once international aid was quickly sent to assist Turkey and to a lesser extent Syria, a lot of noise was made about who sent to whom.
Greece mobilised almost instantaneously to assist Turkey, while Israel offered Syria it's assistance.
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@wartranslated
I would say it's more than "interesting", it's fundamentally correct.
The social contract signed between Putin and Russians is fundamentally broken, it'll take little time for it's effects to show.
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Folks it's okay to admit the battalion partially founded by neo-nazis still has some neo-nazis in it.
People aren't "ussian assets for pointing out that the Azov Battalion is still very much problematic.
It's a reality that may be hard to swallow, but it needs to be understood.
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Meduza reports, quoting an anonymous source within the FSB, that 90,000 troops are "irrecoverable losses".
This includes soldiers killed in service, soldiers who died later from wounds sustained, those who became disabled or those who are missing.
This is a very high estimate.
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This US Airforce flight, which left NATO's "Ramstein" airbase earlier today, is likely to be carrying President Zelensky.
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The US has decided to lift the long-standing arms embargo to the Republic of Cyprus, Secretary of State Blinken has told Congress.
The 33 year old embargo against the island has forced Cyprus to look to Russia for equipment, whilst it's lifting is boun to upset Turkey.
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Massive explosion in an airforce ammunition depot in Volos (#Βολος) after flames entered the area surrounding the base of the 111th fighter wing.
Massive fires (#φωτιες) continue to burn in Magnesia for a second day, where two people lost their life yesterday.
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The British Army says that 200 Ukrainian soldiers will be arriving daily in order to receive training from their forces.
This announcement was made by the UK's Chief of the Defence Staff and tracks with previous statements by Prime Minister Johnson.
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Bloomberg reports that Turkey has secretly tested an experimental ballistic missile in the Black Sea, after being launched from the city of Rize.
The secretive project, dubbed Typhoon, has been under development for several years, without divulging any contents.
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This scheme netted more than 3$bn to the central government, all while 50% of buildings in Turkey were built in violation of seismic regulations.
In fact, just a few days before the earthquake, a draft law was proposed to parliament which would grant further amnesty.
2/18
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Genuinely incredible.
President Luis Arce facing down General Zuñiga and demanding he stands down his troops.
Balls of steel on this man.
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Here you see one destroyed vehicle, a guy doing a thumbs up and someone shooting.
As we can see, the complete collapse of the Ukrainian military imminent.
I'm not one to drink the kool aid and pretend Ukraine is about to liberate Crimea or some other miracle, but come on.
Terrible videos from Kherson ... won't share much, but it looks like the counteroffensive was a failure.
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Russian authorities in Kherson Oblast announced that all schoolchildren will be evacuated to Crimea, to "spend their Autumn holidays".
Officials from the region say that schools will stay closed until the 21st of October for security reasons, which also necessitate evacuation.
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A constantly violated seismic code, a government profiting off of those violations and an earthquake tax going anywhere.
A recipe for disaster, combined with routine governmental mismanagement and local corruption.
That's what led to an absolutely massive catastrophe.
7/18
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Serbia will not be recognising Russia's annexation referendums in the Donbass and Southern Ukraine, as they don't follow international norms.
This tracks with Serbia's neutrality in the conflict, as they seek to balance relationship between the European Union and Russia.
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Preliminary results for the annexation referendums in territory occupied by Russia, by Interfax:
Kherson Oblast - 97.47%
Zaporozhye Oblast - 98%
Donetsk Oblast - 98.05%
Luhansk Oblast - 97.79%
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Germany reportedly stopped Spain from supplying Leopard 2s to Ukraine, citing an informal NATO arrangement not to supply Western Tanks to Ukraine.
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2023 Gazantiep Earthquake:
An Exercise in Corruption.
The double earthquake which hit southeast Turkey quickly became one of the most horrifying natural disasters in recent memory.
Turkey however is no stranger to such events, and there are many lessons to be learned.
1/18
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Ukrainians hit another ammo depot deep behind Russian lines, likely to be with HIMARS.
A Russian ammo depot in Snizhne, a city in Donetsk Oblast, 60km away from the border and under DPR control, was destroyed.
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The St. Petersburg municipal deputies of the Smolninskoye district have voted to sent an appeal to the State Duma, saying that President Putin should be convicted of high treason.
The deputies, which voted 7 to 10 in favour, believe that the war is anti-Russia and illegal.
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The Moscow Exchange has completely collapsed today, falling to 1870 points, a fall of more than 10%.
It's the first time in almost 5 years that the MOEX has fallen so low, down more than 500 points in comparison to before conscription.
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Putin now demands that Ukraine ceases military operations and comes to the negotiating table, which Russia is open to.
Says that Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk are "off the table", since the decision has been made.
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If you believe that NATO is going to start World War 3 or bomb Russia because of two stray missiles hitting a field in Poland...
I have some beach-front property in Vinnytsia to sell you.
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Circling back to 2020 and the destruction in Izmir, a report from BBC revealed that 672,000 buildings had benefited from the construction amnesty.
The Riza Bey Apartment for example was built on a marsh with poor materials, yet was granted an amnesty along with many more.
3/18
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Bragging about your lines of defence being so shoddy that six guys got across a river and basically took over a village with no resistance.
Very smart, very correct, no further comments.
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That's because the money generated has been continually misused.
Former Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek admitted it was used to fund highway construction.
President Erdogan said it's "no one's business" how the funds gathered from the earthquake tax were being used.
6/18
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Keep your eyes on Turkey, an already precarious electoral situation has just been completely derailed by a truly biblical disaster.
It's impact will not be confined to the collapsed apartments of Antakya and Kahramanmaraş, and I believe we have a long way to go still.
18/18
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Kazakhstan's Minister of Finance has unveiled a plan which would say the country bar the export of goods sanctioned by the West to Russia.
This would stop Russia from using Kazakhstan to circumvent sanctions and would worsen the relationship between the two allies further.
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Since 1948, these "zoning amnesty" laws have been passed 19 times, netting billions to the country's coffers and popularity to the government.
The Minister of Urban Planning even commented that "pardoned buildings don't have to be durable or solid", unsurprisingly.
4/18
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Now it's time to touch on Turkey's long-serving President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
While frequently lambasting local authorities and constructors for "murderous negligence", much of this is the result of AKP policy.
In particular, the continuous push for economic expansion.
8/18
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The total information blackout from the Ukrainian side and the extent of OPSEC in Kursk is the most impressive thing about this.
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Thread:
Dancing with the Devil
There's been a lot of noise about whether enough aid has been delivered to Syria, as the world's focuses on assisting Turkey.
With a very difficult to navigate geopolitical situation, a humanitarian issue is turning to a political one.
1/25
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Ukraine has struck the Antonovsky Bridge, connecting the two sides of Ukraine through the Dnieper River.
The local collaborationist government says that the bridge is close to collapse, which would cut off the occupied city of Kherson from Russian supplies.
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It is really interesting how quiet the Kremlin's reaction to the bombing of the Kerch Bridge has been.
Virtually no accusations towards Ukraine, no threats, no "armageddon" like Medvedev predicted.
Really feels like Russian leadership is trying to sweep this under the rug.
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Anatoly Geraschenko, former head of Moscow's Aviation Institute has died after falling down a flight of stairs inside the institute.
No notes.
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The rumour about Ukraine getting access to missiles with a range of 300km for their HIMARS is, as far as I can see, false.
The Financial Times never reported such an agreement, as frequently cited, and this all seems to have originated by some random Telegram channel.
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It's almost impressive how consistently wrong about everything this man can be, it's almost, like,
It's almost incredible really.
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Let's quickly touch on the earthquake tax.
Roughly speaking, the earthquake tax is an additional tax on a number of financial transactions, from paying income tax to purchasing plane tickets.
Created in order to fund a disasters fund, this tax has come under scrutiny.
5/18
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This growth has led to cutting corners, and the disastrous consequences of that push for development at all costs have now become clear.
That, accompanied of course with endemic corruption, is what made this buildings weak enough to tumble one after another.
10/18
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Russia has lowered the supply of gas by 50% to Italy, said Eni, the country's gas company.
France's pipeline network manager says that they're no longer receiving any Russian gas.
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Two members of the Azov Battalion have been sentenced to death by the Donetsk People's Republic.
The DPR accused them of committing war crimes and executing Prisoners of War in Mariupol.
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Honestly there's so much contradicting information about what caused the explosion on the Kerch Bridge that I'm exhausted.
Honestly, my guess is that the bridge just decided to do that.
No explosives even, no attack, the bridge just wanted to take a nap and a bath.
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Additionally, I fully expect Erdogan to try and clamp down on dissent.
I don't believe May elections will be postponed, although we may see much more aggressive authoritarianism.
We've already seen the temporary filtering of Twitter, expects this to only be the start.
13/18
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In this map by the EMSC you can tell how two separate faultlines have been activated.
While initially the aftershocks moved on a southwest axis, the second earthquake has been followed by aftershocks moving northwest.
Clearly shows that the two earthquakes were separate events.
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Turkey is a growing economy, and much of that growth has been fueled by construction projects, both government funded and private ones.
Highways (with earthquake tax income), ports, bridges and, of course, massive residential complexes for a very large population.
9/18
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Attempting to use foreign policy to gather support through expansionist rhetoric is unlikely to work out this time.
The solidarity shown by those branded as "enemies" of Turkey hurts the more aggressive policy that Erdogan has tried to follow on the world stage.
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The question now is how will the Turkish government handle this and what the political side-effects of this massive tragedy be.
Generally, Erdogan has managed to rally the country during disasters and retain or expand his power.
I'm not sure it'll work this time.
11/18
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Could this work?
Maybe, there's a real possibility Erdogan manages to scrape through this crisis, however I wouldn't bet on it.
The opposition is more united than usual, and their relatively consistent approach on seismic safety makes them seem like a solution.
14/18
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Mariupol's Freedom Square, decorated with white doves representing peace and a beautiful Christmas Tree in the centre.
Meanwhile, the charred remains of apartment blocks, likely still filled with dead bodies, lurking just opposite of the white doves.
Quite a stark contrast.
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First of all, the scale of the disaster makes it difficult for the government to avoid missteps.
There's already complaints from Hatay that they're being forgotten.
Sooner or later, the government's rescue efforts will give way to failures before the disaster struck.
12/18
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Erdogan is a naturally divisive leader, both internally and externally, something which doesn't suit a time of crisis.
I'm not saying it's a done deal, however if Erdogan doesn't play his cards well he may find himself in really big troubles very, very soon.
17/18
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Instead, Russia decided to focus much needed manpower on a useless piece of land while they battered themselves in the Donbass.
Kherson and the area north of it should've never been a goal, however political games and a sense of invulnerability trapped Russian forces.
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The Ukrainian flag has been raised over Snake Island, marking the official end of the now infamous Russian stay on the tiny island off the coast of Odessa.
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Today, Vladimir Putin, whilst Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast are facing incredible pressure and losing ground constantly, opened the largest ferris wheel in the world.
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Latvia's parliament has declared Russia a state sponsor of terrorism, in relation to the War in Ukraine.
Russia previously insinuated that such a decision would lead to the cutting of all diploma ties.
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President Zelensky's advisor, Arestovych, says that at least 10,000 Ukrainian servicemen have lost their lives since the war started.
A staggering admission of loss, if compared to Russia's claims of a thousand or so dead.
Interesting to think the morale repercussions of this.
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Alexander Dugin isn't Putin's "right-hand man", Jesus Christ folks.
Alexander Dugins(Putin right hand man) daughter Darya Dugina has reportedly been assassinated in Moscow tonight.
(Unconfirmed)
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Can't overestimate how much anger this prisoner exchange has generated among Russian nationalist circles.
Medvenchuk is a slimy Ukrainian politician, being exchanged for battle-hardened leaders of the Azov Battalion.
A massive betrayal, especially for actual Russian PoWs.
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Germany has approved the export of 100 PzH 2000, which are very advanced, quick and powerful self-propelled artillery guns.
Ukraine will pay upwards of almost $2bn for the purchase from Rheinmetall, as they expect the weapons to start being delivered next year.
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I expect we'll see very quick reactions, like firing top officials and announcing generous emergency subsidies to try and stabilise the situation.
Once again, the first month or so will be crucial to see whether Erdogan will survive in May's presidential election.
16/18
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this seems toο much even for the worst of Russia's doomer milibloggers.
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Poland has joined Finland, Denmark, Latvia and Estonia in stopping the issuing of visas to Russian citizens.
These countries want the entire European Union to stop issuing visas to Russian citizens, however it is unlikely that such a proposal would be accepted.
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@LinkofSunshine
Generalissimo Franciso Franco is being COUPED by Catalan separatists funded by NATO and the disloyal "King" whose a plant by French imperialism!
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Medvedev wakes up, takes a shower, threatens nuclear annihilation then goes on with his day.
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Anyone's noticed a trend?
We're seeing a lot of videos from mobilisations, yet virtually none of them are from the large, liberal leaning, centres of power.
We see Sakhalin, Dagestan, Yakutsk, Chechnya, etc.
Where's Moscow and St. Petersburg?
I suppose we'll find out soon.
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Yevgeny Lesbachev, a former FSB Major General was found dead today in Moscow.
Police say he was found shot in a stairwell.
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Municipal Deputies from 18 different districts of St. Petersburg and Moscow have made a joint statement, saying that President Putin needs to resign.
A couple of days ago votes passed through two other districts in the two cities, asking President Putin to resign or be removed.
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Various DPR government buildings have been hit in Central Donetsk by Ukrainian strikes tonight, in the Kievsky District.
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