On the Economics of Childless Retirement in a Childless society A friend of mine, Lisa, has made up her mind—no kids for her. She wants to savor life: build a career, travel the world, and live free from diaper duty. Kids? They'd just slow her down. They scream, they pee themselves, and Lisa’s not about that life. Not when she’s so close to that big promotion at work. When she’s older, Lisa’s plan is simple: let the government take care of her. She’s also been saving and investing. One day, she’ll pay other people(’s kids) to take care of her. Sounds like a solid plan. Let’s dig in. Problem 1 Money has no inherent value on its own. $1 million on a deserted island is useless to you. Or maybe not, maybe you can use it as a pillow while you wait to starve. Money only has value in a functioning marketplace, where people agree to trade goods and services for it. With fewer people willing to trade their services, the price increases. With very few people, prices skyrocket. How much do you think your savings will be worth (in terms of the services you’ll need) in 40 years, Lisa, when even fewer people are having kids? Problem 2 “I can always sell my house,” Lisa says. But fewer buyers in the future means lower demand for housing. With a shrinking population, the value of your home might not grow as planned—it could even stagnate or drop. Just look at what’s happening in rural Japan. Problem 3 “The government will take care of me,” Lisa says confidently. But the government can only give what it takes from others. And with fewer people working and paying taxes, there’s less to take—and less to give. Problem 4 “Don’t worry,” Lisa says, “we’ll just bring in people from other countries.” But from where exactly? The trend of not having enough kids isn’t limited to one corner of the world. It’s global. Problem 5 “Oh, robots and AI will handle everything!” she adds. Lisa, betting your future on something that’s never happened in human history—like the invention of fully functioning artificial life—seems a bit risky. Not saying it’s impossible, but the current AI hype might be overestimating how soon that future will arrive. Solution 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Is this all doom and gloom? Not at all. The solution is as old as humanity itself: Make more babies! Poem to cheer you up: Babies One baby is better than none, and two can be fun; Three brings the hustle, but oh, what a run! Four fills your home with laughter and cheer, And five? Well, that’s a safety net near! With little ones close, your wealth will take flight; They’ll drive you to build for a future that's bright. So when you’re older, and the bills start to stack, You’ll have a crew ready to give you some slack! Disclaimer: All characters in this story are entirely fictional. Any resemblance to real people, living or retired, is purely coincidental (except the screaming and peeing kids—that part’s real).

RT @hamptonism: CEO of Alibaba, Jack Ma pitching the company to 17 of his friends in his small apartment in Hangzhou, China. (1999): https:…

@Travon Even if all true, you can still do a lot with 2400 dollars that you’re “throwing away”.

The disconnect between what you read in legacy media and what you see on X is stark. It reminds me of the stories where people listened to western radio stations (ironically BBC included) during the Eastern European communist era—completely different spins on events from local propaganda news.

TIL It’s important to wear a mask while burning trash in the middle of the city.

@Molson_Hart

Buying a ticket to North Korea to get the sweet 0% income tax. Go where you’re treated the best. @nomadcapitalist please spread the word

@DobackHuffInc I take you’re putting your money when your mouth is and betting against it? …

@KobeissiLetter Marc Andreessen explains it really well in . Elon basically delegates everything to extremely competent people and focuses only on the biggest problems/bottlenecks right now and fixes it.

@Molson_Hart You don‘t pay taxes to get something in return. Taxes are not a subscription. You pay taxes to stay out of prison (or to not have your house seized etc)

@Molson_Hart If I remember correctly Naval suggests using a subjective value of your time. This value should be absurdly high. (Some large multiple of your hourly rate). This then makes you even more aligned with doing what’s right for your progress.

@SawyerMerritt @elonmusk The companies that won’t leave are exposing themselves to be sued for taking the risk of staying in Delaware. From

@nullpointered You bypass it by invading through Belgium…

@The_AI_Investor False. TSLA is close to 200 now…

@VladTheInflator Idiots… I mean lots of them probably made good money on this. Don’t hate the player, hate the game.

@darrells_tone @paulg Obvious answer for someone meaningfuly smarter would probably be: find something better to do with your time and leave the job

I think it’s a loophole. Because the guest gives the host a review before he sees the host falsely requested some compensation for damages. Then the process with the airbnb starts. They start using legal speech and sending emails instead of in app messages… so unless the charge is exorbitantly high, it’s better to pay and move on.

@VladTheInflator Depends which airbnb you choose. The ones professionally managed are mostly like hotels. Hassle free.

Seeking alpha

@mmjukic In the Eastern Europe, there is much less capital to be taxed since communism wiped the slate clean… and people still remember that. btw Capital gains tax for stock in Czechia is also 0 after the 3-year holding period. So only short-term trading is taxed.

It’s been a mutually beneficial relationship. US and China are like conjoined twins. China has lots of people working really, really hard, producing stuff at scale. All this without many of the regulations and bureaucratic hurdles one can find in the West. The US has been producing fiat currency and buying real stuff from China with it. In the short term, it’s the best deal ever. This allowed the US to get all the real stuff for cheap and China to grow with access to US/global markets using the stable US dollar as an intermediary. One of the things that keeps it stable is the US trade deficit, hence de-industrialization. Also, a lot of the industry was in the US only because the rest of the industrialized world was bombed to the ground after WW2. It was never a long-term possibility to keep it all in the US.