Vaibhav Baxi
@VaibhavBaxi
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Investor/Trader I Ex Banker-20 Years @ Markets with FIIs: FX & Bonds I Charts/Macro I CA-AIR 37, CFA, FRM I Views personal I Not SEBI RA I Equity Mkt I Humor
Mumbai
Joined May 2024
This is why i love technical analysis. In the thread some charts of Bitcoin, that have worked so well in even medium to long term with simple patterns. 1) Inverse Head and Shoulder formation with 2nd shoulder breaking after Trump getting elected. Breakout happened at 77,000 $ and eventually targets 128,000 $ #bitcoin #technicalanalysis #CHARTING
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@REDBOXINDIA It’s the right time to intervene hard. If they continue to let it depreciate then FII outflows will continue
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@ThetaVegaCap RBI has started but needs to hit it more hard. We are unnecessarily standing out.
Very important that the currency remains stable from hereon, if we want FIIs to come back or at least not pull out. While RBI has been stating its objective is to keep the volatility low, this move has stretched too far given what they say. First signs however now of some selling of USD the way we have managed to come off highs and fill the gap. The pair needs to settle below 87.30
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@Cryptified_Soul Currency volatility and valuations at play.
EM Asia Ex China saw a net outflow of $2.1 bn last week. India saw a 8th straight week of net sell from FPIs at 894 mn USD. China however has seen 3rd straight week of inflows from US listed ETFs, this despite they being most affected by the trade war. The Deep Seek confidence and undervaluation has helped. Also, China currency has been much more stable than INR. USDINR needs to stabilize for flows to comeback. Hang Seng Index almost coming back to its Sept-Oct highs.
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EM Asia Ex China saw a net outflow of $2.1 bn last week. India saw a 8th straight week of net sell from FPIs at 894 mn USD. China however has seen 3rd straight week of inflows from US listed ETFs, this despite they being most affected by the trade war. The Deep Seek confidence and undervaluation has helped. Also, China currency has been much more stable than INR. USDINR needs to stabilize for flows to comeback. Hang Seng Index almost coming back to its Sept-Oct highs.
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Gaps left between 3rd and 4th Feb on Nifty, Midcap100 and Smallcap100 getting filled and Bank Nifty at an important up trend line. Let's see if we can take support here. #nifty500
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@baxirahul That will be something, given how US markets have closed. However superstition is highly prevalent even within the Indian cricket team. And I believe in trends. Stock mkt has been struggling since Rohit had been. So may be now the fortunes turn for stocks as well.
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@Macro_Maniac_ HNI, margin calls likely done for once. Positioning should be much lighter now. Most of the sectors have seen sharp falls especially in the leading and high PE stocks. Started with railway and defence, moved some of the EMS themes then to consumer durables as well.
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Rental yields on house is so low. It’s not a good financial decision, unless bought in an upcoming locality. It’s better to invest in other assets like equity and gold/ silver and take exposure to land (after proper research and ensuring title and safety) and wait for capital to compound before one buys a house. Else most part of the earning life will be spent on servicing the EMI.
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@piyushchaudhry All the indices filled the post election gap and nifty and nifty in USD terms held a long term trend line as well. A bottom is for sure in place. We consolidate for sometime, before we attempt a move higher
Watching these gaps created post the election results. Gaps on Nifty (22650 - 22780), Midcap 100 (51350 - 51850), Smallcap 100 (16311 - 16527). Probably the last good support standing. If we can hold these (and we need to bounce today), there could be some respite, else more pain ahead.
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