Villu Veedla
@VVeedla
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Top pro gambler, speculator and analyst of mass events & zeitgeist. Currently focused on #USElection2024 , #crypto & prediction markets @Polymarket .
Joined February 2019
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Prediction for 2024:
@Polymarket
will bring prediction markets fully into the mainstream. Here’s why:
•We can already see many relevant influencers sharing posts about Polymarket, and it has the fundamentals for being contagious.
•It’s much cooler, sexier, and catchier than
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Fun fact: Tix 🇳🇴 would had probably NQ without the whole Efendi & Tix love saga. He received 10p tele from 🇦🇿 in Semi, and eleventh place was only 5p away from him. So, Efendi literally saved him.
#ESC2021
#efentix
#efendimusic
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ESC 2024: This year feels like a major dejavu with 2021.
Baby Lasagna 🇭🇷 stage show gives a lot Maneskin 🇮🇹 vibes.
We have a bit weird and artistic talented Nemo🇨🇭, like we had Gjon🇨🇭.
And we have very charismatic Slimane 🇫🇷 with a nostalgic French chanson as we had Barbara
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ESC 2024: So, if the 🇮🇱 situation is true, how is it gonna influence the whole dynamics of this edition?
- Does it benefit jury acts (🇫🇷🇨🇭🇮🇹) considering top tele acts will lose more points if Israel takes 12p in many countries?
- Will there be any tactical voting now by
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@RealCandaceO
@JoJnMancuso
This has literally been Russian strategy through all history. Haven’t you learned anything about the past?
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ESC 2024: If the 🇮🇱 vote leak topic will go viral now in media, then I think Bambie Thug 🇮🇪 will probably benefit the most from it.
People are naturally tribal and want to express their opinion. And she’s (they) already previously positioned in media with 🇵🇸 support narrative.
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Just performed Loreen who will bring tomorrow for 🇸🇪 their 7th Eurovision trophy with a landslide victory.
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@mitchmcveigh13
@aaronlarnavarro
@rpyers
The facts are on their side tho.
They may be wrong and the counter side may be right, but pretty much all the counter arguments are very speculative and based mostly on “common sense” and predictions not on facts per se.
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ESC 2024: Looks more of a jury than televoting staging imo.
And although🇨🇭has also a great shot for jury win, in my books 🇮🇹 is the most likely jury winner and I’ve been recently betting on it @ 4s actively.
Her star quality is undeniable and hopefully the live package will
🇮🇹 Here are some more pictures from Angelina Mango's first
#Eurovision
rehearsal!
[📸 Corinne Cumming & Sarah Louise Bennett / EBU]
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ESC 2024: RAI 🇮🇹 leak re Israel 🇮🇱 score stole all the spotlight last night after the show but there was also something else very relevant.
Slimane 🇫🇷 received a really strong reaction and it has somehow gone under the radar.
- 2nd best reaction in Estonian online media after
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Finland 🇫🇮 was shockingly bad tonight tbh. Very hard to see it having a realistic shot to win ESC now and I’m very doubtful of it winning even Semi1. I laid the hell out of it in different markets (had previous positions).
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Tbh I agree Cha Cha 🇫🇮 is one of the most original & brilliant things we’ve ever seen in ESC & Käärijä a sensation who deserves rewarding/recognition. On the other hand we can’t disregard how much quality Loreen’s 🇸🇪 performance & staging had. Either of them would have been..
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Tbh Loreen 🇸🇪 on 9th slot between the sea of ballads didn’t feel closely as bad as I expected after seeing the RO. It’s a quite great slot.
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ESC 2024: Heading into rehearsals, I think this is probably the most open contest (with a competitive top) I can recall.
We have:
🇨🇭- something very powerful, original and fresh with a virtuoso performer, and as Eurojury and pre-polls have proved def having an appeal, just
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After watching tonight’s jury show, my points as a juror would be: 12p 🇸🇪 10p🇨🇭 8p 🇪🇸 7p 🇫🇷 6p 🇧🇪 5p 🇮🇹 4p 🇮🇱 3p 🇫🇮 2p 🇪🇪 1p 🇦🇲; runner-ups: 🇦🇺, 🇺🇦, 🇳🇴, 🇱🇹, 🇭🇷.
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I haven’t had time to read anyone’s else predictions/articles today but my main bets for tonight are 🇸🇪 to win & 🇧🇪 to do well. Wouldn’t also mind 🇪🇸🇫🇷 to overperform current odds, 🇫🇮 televote win and top3, 🇮🇱 top5 & 🇭🇷 Top Balkan. GL & HF everyone.
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50/50 system is overall great imo & there will be always outlier situations where it feels the result wasn’t perfect, but outlier events won’t change the overall efficiency of the system on average.
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ESC 2024: Bambie Thug 🇮🇪 PV will be a very interesting experiment/learning lesson this year.
We see a MASSIVE dominance both on Google Search and YouTube trending across the Europe.
That’s quite unprecedented and will be interesting to see how much will it translate to actual
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ESC 2024: I’ve been actively laying🇨🇭on the outright recently in the range of 3.0-3.2.
Although I think it’s one of the most probable winner of this edition, I think the odds have already priced in very positive case scenarios for Swiss.
Meanwhile, there are numerous potential
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..a deserved winner & the game was played generally fairly. Producers even helped 🇫🇮 with a better slot to make the race tighter. One had more quality, other more originality, this time 🇸🇪 came out as a winner & Loreen deserves a global success boost.
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ESC 2024: Imagine if someone would have told yesterday that 🇭🇷 wins the televote and comes almost 2nd with juries, and still loses the 🏆.
LOL.
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@jackhlawson
Well, the 🇫🇷 part is quite easily debunkable bcs we have more detailed data which suggest that it’s very likely that with 2nd half draw it would have sneaked into top10.
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ESC 2024: Five different countries in single figures on outright.
Can’t recall this happening many times & it signals how confused and uncertain the market currently is.
It’s a very open year and we will probably see quite wild odds swings for different countries in different
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Currently holding ~ 4 million $SENK coins.
I don’t think it will be the next $PONKE but nonetheless it’s a catchy coin with a lots of potential.
The branding and content feels well-executed and there’s a niche for a cute gambling seal in Solana.
$SENK it higher 🔥
Early stage
Crypto:
@senksolana
coin catched my eye today and I bought some.
Seems quite well-executed and in a very early stage still.
Not sure if it’s gonna be a shorter swing trade or a longer-term holding for me, but at a $2-3 million market cap I think it’s a decent risk-reward play.
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ESC 2024: Rehearsals have so far strengthened a bull case for 🇮🇹 vs 🇭🇷 imo.
If 🇬🇷🇨🇭🇳🇱 really end up with weaker televoting appeal than expected, Mango could gain ~ 30p which may put her PV around 200p (slightly more or less).
While Baby Lasagna probably won’t gain really bcs
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I’m starting a blog and just published my first introductory article. It’s partly a gambler’s reflection of the season (mainly through lenses of Eurovision), partly a general speculation about the current standings in culture. Link:
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ESC 2024: It feels like we’ve all figured it out by now what’s gonna happen or what scenarios can happen but there’s gonna be a reality check tomorrow when we start seeing all the full footages.
There has always been surprises.
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ESC 2024: Main takeaways from tonight.
🇭🇷 - definitely giving the most “winner vibes” so far; reaction seemed strong and the one to beat
🇺🇦 - at least the start of the stats is strong (approx same pace as Kalush); didn’t feel as a winner tonight but I think it manages to get
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@JamesSurowiecki
Clinton would be realistically the strongest option right now (she’s stronger than in 2016).
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ESC 2024: Some people take 1st of April way too seriously..🇨🇭@ 4.1
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I don’t think the slot influences 🇫🇮 televote much (whatever 6-13 great) but 🇸🇪 probably the biggest winner of the draws bcs it’s least likely they would sacrifice her, she will get very likely a prime slot & it’s harder for other contenders to get a big PV lead.
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ESC 2024: from the vibes perspective the only act giving me the “winner vibes” in the past month has been 🇳🇱.
It hits the zeitgeist extremely well, gives joyful uniting Europe vibes (what we crave for right now), combined with playful sarcasm & fun escapism, and feels fresh
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ESC 2024: I’ve been laying 🇭🇷 now at 2.2. Although it can go shorter tonight, we have forgotten🇨🇭🇳🇱🇮🇹🇫🇷🇮🇱 where expectations are low currently (considering short clips) but as also yesterday proved, I think we could be in for a surprise tomorrow when we see the full footage.
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Ngl, haven’t had my best streak recently as a pundit/trader.
Restarting my mind shortly and sipping old fashioneds at my spirit home Bali.
Will have a total detox from the serious world, have had way too little chance to spend time here recently.
Back soon.
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ESC 2024: Some people compare Slimane 🇫🇷 to Barbara but imho he’s more in Blanca Paloma territory: a lot of impressive screaming lacking real emotion.
🇭🇷❤️🇫🇷 Slimane también ha presentado su propuesta para
#Eurovision
2024 «Mon Amour» ¿Qué te ha parecido su actuación? 🎶
#Dora2024
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Tbh the whole Eurojury part of the season + fan media part during rehearsals has been what has made ESC exciting for me. The actual televised shows in the end less relevant. It is just starting to feel really soulless & unexciting this year, it was a big mistake to deny media.
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Tbh it feels that Cha Cha 🇫🇮 has created a whole new cult or ecosystem of young obsessed & overconfident activist males who gather passionately around the cult leader who offers change/revolution, Käärijä Bros. A lot of similarities with Bernie Bros & Crypto Bros.
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Crypto: I bought some more $PONKE (0.10), $BODEN (0.30-0.31) and $BRITT (0.0029) on this dip.
All three have been recently my fav memecoin plays.
@ponkesol
(MC ∼ 46 mil $) - very strong community and social media game; fundamentally catchy and best monkey/gambler meme; unless
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ESC 2024: Norway last place odds 42-30 ✔️ / Luxembourg top15 odds 5+ ✔️ / Germany top15 ✔️ top10 lost / UK & Latvia top10 🔴 / Ireland top 10 ✔️
Top5 🇭🇷🇮🇱🇺🇦🇫🇷🇨🇭 ✔️
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ESC 2024: I think we’re left pretty much between 🇭🇷🇨🇭🇺🇦.
These are the 3 countries left with a realistic path to victory.
Croatia is the most probable one but I think there’s already too much herding and fomo by market behind it.
Few others have an “outside shot” with
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Something what many (especially casuals) get wrong:
Top level trading/betting is much more about being flexible/open-minded in your opinions and positions than about initial judgement.
To survive in the game & be a profitable speculator long-term you can’t marry with your
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This is extremely incompetent handling by your customer sup
@BetfairCS
@BetfairExchange
I have been your customer over 10 years, betting 6-figure sums continuously & you should have a full overview of my incomes on your platform. You should remove the limit immediately.
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I understand the frustration of many neutral people being disappointed of Käärijä not winning (I was as well in 2015 when Il Volo 🇮🇹 didn’t win), but if you’re Finnish 🇫🇮 & say it was rigged then you’re pretty much a hypocrite, cons only ones who tried to “rig” were Finns in PV.
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ESC 2024: I think 🇳🇱 current odds are driven more by ‘wisdom of the crowds’ than a bubble.
Nonetheless, that wisdom may have a slight Western/Northern bias (over-represented on the markets) compared to full voting body.
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ESC 2024: If 🇮🇸 would have sent Bashar Murad 🇵🇸 to Eurovision, then things would have gone now extra spicy.
We would have seen a cowboy 🤠 style Wild West duel.
The whole world’s attention would be on the contest now.
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A short overview: why do I think
#oscars2024
will be between Oppenheimer, Barbie and Poor Things?
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ESC 2024: Estonian 🇪🇪 main online news media outlet live stats for tonight’s SF:
🇺🇦 246
🇫🇮 192
🇸🇪 132
🇭🇷 126
🇱🇹 106
🇮🇪 78
Others were not posted.
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@TheEliKlein
Why is that so tho? Is it fundamentally based on mass psychosis? I just don’t get it how so incredibly logical things (nat immunity makes a lot of sense considering fundamental laws of nature) are suddenly so incomprehensible for smart people. I’ve never been so confused.
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I just made a first small test deposit to my new
@Polymarket
account. Excited to join with this community & try out the interesting markets the platform is offering.
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After these countries 2022: 🇸🇪 44p🇬🇧34p 🇮🇹 28p 🇺🇦 22p 🇪🇸 12p
After these countries 2021: 🇲🇹 52p 🇫🇷 44p 🇨🇭 34p 🇮🇹 26p 🇮🇸 22p
Now: 🇸🇪 52p 🇫🇷 42p 🇪🇸 38p 🇳🇴 36p 🇮🇹 32p 🇫🇮 22p
Too early to make certain conclusions based on current results, Loreen start on surface not spectacular yet.
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ESC 2024: I’ve been recently offloading my 🇭🇷 position when the odds dropped to 3s.
Not saying it can’t drop even lower when casuals money pours in (as Käärijä & Kalush did), but I don’t think it’s as strong frontrunner as the market makes it.
It’s likely we will see some acts
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In case Joe Biden would secure the Democratic nomination, he would really deserve a nickname Comeback Joe.
Because it wouldn’t be his first time to make a great comeback when things feel already quite hopeless.
Currently, also the most famous Biden-related memecoin $BODEN is in
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@GadSaad
@lexfridman
Good human may fight against injustice (sports example), but doesn’t try to bully and be sarcastic on every instance on people who prefer to live their lives through self-identification (there’s no objective truth there, just different visions).
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I understand from artists perspective not wanting 1st rehearsals to be shown to press etc but now not showing even 2nd rehearsals is just a disgrace imo.
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Tonight is starting my favorite TV event of the year: Sanremo Music Festival 2024 🇮🇹
It’s not only a great betting event but has also had significant impact for my Spotify playlist.
Some of the artists who I have found through years from Sanremo (and listen rather often):
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ESC 2024: Final preview.
I’m gonna play it on outright mostly live during jury voting , but I’m entering to the show with the biggest position on 🇫🇷, followed by 🇮🇱.
As we’ve seen in past few days, a lot can happen still, and there can be some “unexpected” surprises during the
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ESC 2024: Both Netta 🇮🇱 and Nemo🇨🇭came 4th in their SF televote.
Both were met with lukewarm reaction for their rehearsals and Semi-Final performances, fell in favoritism and ended up winning in Final when it mattered and delivered the most winner-worthy performance.
Their
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Hi
@BetfairCS
could you please open already Eurovision 2023 winner w/o Ukraine market on Exchange? As the odds suggest, the regular market isn’t really that attractive setting to bet in for pro gamblers considering the war situation. Too much unnecessary & uncomfortable risk.
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My personal review of Malta 🇲🇹:
- pros: nice sceneries and picturesque, very walkable (easy to walk/run on avg ca 10km per day), quite decent food scene (especially for Italian/Sicilian and Balkan/Hungarian/Turkish food), historic vibes, very compact, everyone fluent in English,
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If 🇫🇮 tonight’s shortening is caused by a *conspiracy theory* of 🇫🇷 and 🇸🇪 stealing jury points from each other then I think it’s a pretty bs & naive way of thinking.
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Wild but true story regarding to live trading Eurovision I was just telling to
@chuckbasspoker
.
I entered to Eurovision 2019 Final live show with a quite sizable but risky position on Netherlands 🇳🇱.
As we can recall, the first half of the jury voting was very tense and
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ESC 2024: I guess people and the market were caught a bit off guard: after two years of record-breaking televoting scores this year will not be decided by extreme 🇭🇷🇮🇱 televoting score but by an extreme🇨🇭jury score.
It’s almost never what you expect. Universe plays tricks on us.
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I think Biden is slightly better value on election winner market, but I just bought 13000 shares
@Polymarket
for him to not drop out.
Imo he has too much visible public support (what his team can point out and who would be vocally pissed if he’s pushed down) + his recent polls
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ESC 2024: I think Rim Tim Tagi Dim 🇭🇷 will become a wave. As destructive as tsunami & as socially contagious as a virus.
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ESC 2024: Estonian 🇪🇪 main online news media outlet live stats for tonight’s SF:
🇫🇷 195
🇳🇱 127
🇨🇭 117
🇪🇸 63
🇱🇻 62
🇮🇱 52
Others were not posted or below 50.
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ESC 2024: Few thoughts on 🇮🇸🇵🇸 topic before tomorrow’s song reveal:
🚩 for virtue narratives to work, the song & performance should carry the message & should be in a quite good level, accessible and match with the context (culturally authentic enough but not very alienating).
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To let the betting community know: I'm glad to announce that my and Betfair dispute has been resolved amicably and through the IBAS panel arbriation, Betfair has paid me £208,700 as a settlement of my claim.
#Betfair
#gambling
#uspresidentialelection2020
@BetfairExchange
If you bet politics on Betfair Exchange, be aware of their crooked behavior. I made 1000+ bets on Democratic Nominee Market fixating over 250 000 EUR profit through trading and they closed my account and voided all my bets without any valid reason before the Democratic Convention
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ESC 2024: Tonight’s Super Saturday review.
Sanremo 2024🇮🇹: It’s been so far the worst event for me in almost 2 years considering my trading performance.
However, I’ve moved to Angelina Mango’s boat and see her as the most likely winner tonight.
Press/radio will have much more
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ESC 2024: That’s definitely over the expectations good result for 🇨🇭and signals that the race isn’t over yet.
Game on.
Switzerland BY ONE POINT wins the
#eurovision
audience poll!
Thanks
@EuroTripPodcast
@12PointsUSA
@escxtra
@ThatEuroSite
and Melodifestivalklubben!
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ESC 2024: My current prediction.
Televote: 🇭🇷🇺🇦 gap🇨🇭🇮🇪 gap and very open after that (RO-dependant), I’ll go with 🇮🇱 now
Jury vote: 🇨🇭gap 🇫🇷 gap 🇭🇷🇮🇹🇺🇦🇩🇪
Jury winner score 295 +- 20p.
Televote winner 325 +- 20p.
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ESC 2024: My main bets for tonight’s Super Saturday are:
- Gate to win in Norway 🇳🇴
- Smash Into Pieces & Lisa Ajax to Q 🇸🇪 2nd DTF spot feels open in this heat but Lisa Ajax feels value and it wouldn’t be surprising if she takes it quite easily in the end
Not really excited
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An example of a wild odds discrepancy between
@Polymarket
and Betfair Exchange: 🇺🇸 2024 Election Popular Vote Winner.
In the former trading at 33%, in the latter below 20%.
Biden meanwhile almost the same odds.
It’s one of the many markets where the discrepancy is very
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Ukraine 🇺🇦 YouTube likes after 1st hour 11 874. Last year it was 20282. So the stats aren’t really that impressive so far. They were only 4th tonight on BBC Twitter.
#Eurovision2022
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ESC 2024: My main issue with Switzerland 🇨🇭 has been that it could be on stage “Gabbani”: a lot of going on without any central message, messy.
But it’s an act which can be judged only through full tv footage. Could be amazing, could be a ridiculous mess.
Seems like there’s a lot going on but is the message/narrative of the song being conveyed? Not long to find out!
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A THREAD: Republican Iowa 2024 preview and why I have decided to make a move against Nikki Haley (
@Polymarket
& elsewhere) and predict Ron DeSantis to finish 2nd.
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@EricTopol
If you wanna make your point, why do you need to cherry pick the data and use smth which proves NOTHING? There was 0 deaths in Iceland during last summer as well, the seasonality plays huge roll in Nordics. That’s lazy data interpr and isn’t anyhow a proof for your argument.
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Congratz to everyone slaying it this season!!🔥🥳
I haven’t had time to read anyone’s else predictions/articles today but my main bets for tonight are 🇸🇪 to win & 🇧🇪 to do well. Wouldn’t also mind 🇪🇸🇫🇷 to overperform current odds, 🇫🇮 televote win and top3, 🇮🇱 top5 & 🇭🇷 Top Balkan. GL & HF everyone.
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Paying a short visit to Armenia 🇦🇲 soon, made a travel insurance through
@Polymarket
this time.
(don’t think this will happen tho)
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Hey
@BetfairCS
maybe it would be a time to open Eurovision Song Contest top3/4/5/10 + w/o Ukraine markets up finally on Betfair Exchange?
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It’s kind of shocking tbh that after the long hype..rumors of shortlists and Brit Award artists..knowing that after Ryder success it’s easier to attract smth great to represent UK..they come up with that? My mind literally can’t comprehend it..like how is it even possible?
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There’s been a ‘hidden symmetry’ in Sanremo 🇮🇹 for years: no matter what’s all the ‘noise’ through week, the act who would bring Italy the best Eurovision result, will win in the end.
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A campaign who plans to drop out soon wouldn’t drop a post like that and make a TikTok account.
I just made my first bet on “Biden to drop out” market
@Polymarket
& bet on him elsewhere as well.
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