Treyce Jones @TreyceJonesWX profile

Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

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Weather enthusiast ~ Storm chaser ~ Tropics ~ Follow along for forecasts & updates! (thoughts are my own)

Pensacola, FL

Joined August 2021

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Pinned Tweet

Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

Hey guys, I’m okay. Words can’t explain what I’ve seen tonight. Rolling Fork, MS took a direct hit. The damage is devastating. #tornado #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

3 months

If you showed me this imagery a month ago & told me this was July 1st, i’d laugh at you. #Beryl is the earliest Cat 5 to form in the Atlantic Basin EVER. We probably won’t see this again in our lifetime, that’s how unprecedented this is. #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

5 months

📍Pensacola, FL. This is insane! #aurora

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

1 year

#Idalia is giving me a pit in my stomach this evening… If the current attempt at alignment succeeds, this storm is going to exceed the already high expectations it has. I don’t say this to hype or fear monger, this is just all to familiar. I’ve been studying these things for a

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

5 months

@AtlantaFalcons @themikepenix So Penix either has a wasted career behind Cousins, or y’all just wasted 180 mil 😭

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

OKC, TAKE SHELTER NOW! #tornado #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

3 months

#Beryl continues to defy odds this morning. A lot of forecasters are stumped. Its inner core was expected to collapse last night, but it refuses. #Beryl has actually managed to re-close its eyewall over the last few hours, just incredible. It’s weakened some (as expected), but

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

3 months

"So basically, #Beryl completed an EWRC in the midst of 30 kts of shear & is strengthening."

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

9 months

@FSU_Barstool FSU would of got trounced 😭

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

3 months

I’d be lying if I said I didn’t have an eery feeling as #Beryl enters the Gulf. A storm notoriously known for overachieving & Gulf waters don’t mix well.

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

1 month

Not what you want to see if you live along the Gulf Coast. There’s a big difference between a hurricane forming in the Gulf & and a hurricane entering the Gulf… Lots of time to watch, but this looks to be a threat down the road. #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

5 months

@LakeShowYo James, Davis, & Russel all had good games and the lakers still couldn’t win 💀 Nuggets in 4.

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

All of the US, except southern FL, will see below average temps next weekend. #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

3 months

Pretty unreal what difference 3 hours can make. #Beryl looks like a completely different storm.

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

3 months

Honestly, #Beryl looks more caught up in its own EWRC than it is with shear haha. This is the most resilient storm i’ve ever tracked. #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

Yes, search and rescue in Rolling Fork, MS last night was traumatizing, but I don't regret doing it. I saw many gut wrenching things, but I also saved lives. I would do it again in a heartbeat, those people needed us. #tornado #mswx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

4 months

@Timberwolves @MayoClinic • Now we know we can beat this team • Kat got his confidence back • NAW finally made some 3’s • ANT MAN is back • Wolves in 7 🐺

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

5 months

@Vikings @UnoErra FRONT OFFICE IS COOKING HOLYYY

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 months

00z GFS would be ‘worst case’ scenario for the Gulf Coast. Wouldn’t say the stall along with that much strengthening is likely, but you never know. If it actually does happen to stall/meander in the Gulf, all bets are off. #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

5 months

📍Pensacola, FL. This is incredible. Hard to believe this is happening down here. #aurora

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

3 months

BREAKING: #Beryl can in fact weaken.

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

3 months

You’ve got to be kidding me. #beryl #tropics #wx

Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

3 months

Honestly, #Beryl looks more caught up in its own EWRC than it is with shear haha. This is the most resilient storm i’ve ever tracked. #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

Me: Ah cool, winter is coming! GFS:

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

5 months

@Timberwolves @MayoClinic This is such a weird series lol, every game is a blowout. With that being said, wolves in 7. 😤

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

21 days

Holy cow. #Francine coming very shortly.

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

Next Wednesday.. if this materializes, the environment looks scary. #severe #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

Look how deep 00z Euro digs the upcoming trough. Imagine this happened in January.😦 #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

3 months

#Beryl ’s trying to wrap again & even starting to clear out an eye. If it can avoid going over Jamaica directly, we might not see much weakening. Today was forecast to be the most hostile day for #Beryl (shear wise), so if it doesn’t get disrupted by Jamaica & keeps holding its

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

5 months

@Timberwolves @MichelobULTRA Literally all we had to do was hold the ball and we would have been down by 7 max. That sequence was actually insane.

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

8 months

Not how i planned my night to go… headed to the hospital now, i’ll update y’all later.

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

Nothing to see here.. just the HWRF doing HWRF things with #91L . #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

3 months

#Beryl ’s outperforming models once again this evening. The northern trends i’ve been calling for days are also starting to show with 18z guidance. This is due to #Beryl continuously being stronger than forecast. What a storm. #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

3 months

00z GFS chose violence. 😭 #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

3 months

Seeing a lot of buzz about 12z EPS on #Beryl . I want to give my two cents. The majority of the members aren’t initialized properly. We can pretty much throw away 2/3 of them. The batch of members that are initialized properly, are a lot further north. (showing TX/LA landfalls)

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

3 months

#Beryl could very well be a Cat 5 atm, we just don't have recon to confirm. This is by far the best it's looked on satellite yet. #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

Arcadia is devestated, I left after the NE eyewall and barely got out of the town. Down power lines everywhere, snapped trees, and mobile homes torn to pieces. I’ll have some footage on my core punch in a couple days. #Ian #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

9 months

This upcoming arctic blast could be the best cold/wintery weather pattern we’ve seen in the southeast in quite a long time. Nothing is set in stone, but it’s getting increasingly hard to ignore. Is this finally our year? #winter #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

In 30-36 hours, 12z HWRF & HMON both show #Ian as a high end Cat 4 just off the FL coast. This is looking increasingly concerning. The impacts are likely going to be devastating. #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

5 months

@Timberwolves @MichelobULTRA Best half of basketball i’ve ever watched.

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

8 months

Thank you guys so much for all the thoughts and prayers. For those of you wondering, i got rear ended last night by a man going nearly 70 mph. Messed up my neck a bit, but overall i'm okay. I’m beyond thankful, could have been a lot worse. God is good! ✝️

Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

8 months

Not how i planned my night to go… headed to the hospital now, i’ll update y’all later.

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

9 months

NWS Mobile never fails to entertain us in there AFD’s. First it was “bonkers” now it’s “heckin chonker” 😂 #severe #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

4 months

@Timberwolves @MayoClinic If you simply don’t give up so many offensive rebounds, you easily win this game.

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

5 months

@Timberwolves @Sprite Wolves up 3-0, Twins 5 game win streak, & Vikings got there franchise QB. What a great week for Minnesota sports haha

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

8 months

@Timberwolves @Aura_Protects Another day, another 4th quarter choke.

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

8 months

@Timberwolves @Target ANOTHER 4th quarter choke, y’all got to figure out the issue man.

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

NWS Mobile: I’ve never seen wording like this from a forecast discussion.. #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

12z GFS shows #Ian slamming into Tampa as a MH Wed night/early Thurs. This would be WORST case scenario. #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

3 months

Can’t believe i’m saying this, but #Beryl might be strengthening again. Its CDO has cooled dramatically over the last half hour or so. Recon is currently in, so if this hits Cat 5 status, we’ll know.

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

Latest 06z Euro & GFS both show #Ian making landfall around Sarasota/Cape Coral. There’s no escaping this anymore, a MH will hit central FL Wed evening/night. This has potential to be an historic storm, please take it seriously. #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

We love you, Brandon.❤️

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

1 year

This is absolutely wild, never seen this much erratic movement before… #tornado #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

If 18z GFS verified, Tampa would have devastating impacts. The loop below is a 24 hour loop.. #Ian barely moves. This has potential to be a historic storm, please take it seriously. #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

1 year

Interesting trend with 06z/12z models so far today… seeing a little bit of a western trend with #Idalia . Windshield wiper effect is common for these types of systems, especially systems with little movement. We’ll see if this continues throughout the day. Last 4 runs of the GFS

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

Thanksgiving severe threat?👀 #severe #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

12z Euro.. holy moly. Monday afternoon looks scary. I’ve never seen a global model bullish on prefrontal/discrete storm mode. #severe #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

12z Euro just casually dropped an outbreak for the ages along the entire Gulf Coast, and no one noticed. #severe #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

3 months

#Beryl is nearing a landfall into the Yucatán Pen this morning as a high-end (110 mph) Cat 2. Long thread incoming: ⬇️⬇️⬇️ The northern trend we began to see yesterday has continued overnight. This isn’t great news for folks on the western Gulf Coast. #Beryl making landfall

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

1 year

Concerning 5 run trend on the GFS in regards to #Idalia . A MH at landfall is looking more & more likely, unfortunately. #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

8 months

@Timberwolves We blew a 23 point lead…

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

4 months

@Timberwolves @mconley11 Win it all for him, it’s prob his last chance.

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

21 days

18z GEFS… Eastern shifts continue. #Francine

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

3 months

Looking back at this morning… Shear was finally having its way with #Beryl . Jamaica could have really disrupted it, especially since #Beryl already had a sheared structure. But no, #Beryl decides to move JUST south of Jamaica, rebuild a core, and strengthen. #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

4 months

@Timberwolves @MayoClinic Great season boys, we’ll be back. 🐺

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

#Ian happening in 2022 is a prime example of the phrase “it only takes one”. Don’t let your guard down until season is fully over. My condolences go out to anyone effected by this storm and there families, I’m truly sorry. #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

LOL. #LOCKITIN

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

❄️❄️❄️. #LOCKITIN

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

13 days

Okay, i’m interested. #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

One of the most impressive trough ejections I’ve ever seen. #severe #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

#Ian looks like it’s on the verge of takeoff tonight. Recon confirmed that the low level & mid level centers are now vertically stacked. A period of RI is likely to begin soon. We’re probably going to wake up to a much stronger storm. #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

1 year

Very impressive structure on the leading edge of the QLCS moving into Pace, FL! #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

This is insane, looks like something you’d see in August. #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

SPC Day 3 Outlook: An ENHANCED risk has been issued across the ArkLaTex region, into MS. The SPC still mentions the possibility of a “regional outbreak” and “strong tornado risk” with any sustained supercells. An upgrade to MDT is also likely in future outlooks. #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

9 months

SPC already mentioning “discrete supercells” & “strong tornadoes” for Friday. Higher severe probs will likely be added in the coming days. #severe #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

3 months

#Beryl ’s eyewall looks closed. We should see a period of substantial strengthening begin soon.

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

1 year

12z GFS/CMC coming in further west with the Caribbean/Gulf disturbance. Looking like more of a panhandle/big bend threat. The western shift is due to both runs showing a stronger storm. A stronger storm would likely trek more northerly compared to a weaker storm that would trek

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

1 year

12z HWRF & HAFS-B: Very dangerous situation unfolding for the Big Bend region. #Idalia is going to be quite significant, please take this storm seriously. #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

3 months

#Beryl certainly has the looks of a Cat 5. We’ll see if it can maintain intensity until recon can confirm. Recon departs at 6pm EST. #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

LOL, imagine. White Christmas for the Gulf Coast? #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

This is crazy! #Tornado just came ashore ahead of us in Gulfport, MS! #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

3 months

#92L is 100% a TC, and has been since a certain time yesterday evening. Blows my mind the NHC hasn’t named this, pathetic honestly. Those who say “the center is exposed”, the NHC has named several sheared systems that have looked 100x worse than this. #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

1 year

This isn’t really being talked about much, but #TD10 needs to be watched closely overnight tonight. Seeing signs of a mesovortex on Yucatán radar… Once convection re-fires in a few hours, this could wrap up quick, especially if it stays offshore. #TD10 is currently sitting in a

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

1 month

00z EPS: If anything develops, the Gulf looks to be open for business. #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

Very unexpected, 00z ICON just completely flipped. Big shift towards the GFS! #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

6 months

@AlabamaMBB No one gave Bama a chance in this tourney, much less this game. Good run boys. 🙏🏼

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

3 months

Latest MW imagery of #Beryl shows pretty major structural improvements since this morning. Expect #Beryl to maintain/strengthen on its approach to the Yucatán Peninsula. IMO, a high-end Cat 2/low-end Cat 3 at landfall is the most likely scenario. #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

SPC Day 3 Outlook: This is easily the biggest enhanced risk I’ve ever seen, my god. #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

3 months

#Beryl trying to clear out an eye again. As shear lessens, we could see some re-strengthening on its approach to the Yucatán Peninsula. Landfall expected overnight tonight near/just south of Cozumel, MX. #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

3 months

Truly remarkable. I wouldn’t rule out #beryl trying to make a run at a Cat 5, pending any structural changes. #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

Both Euro & GFS agree on a trough digging into the southeast in 8-10 days. #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

The northern Gulf is insanely warm right now. Widespread 31-32°C waters along LA, MS, AL, and western FL. In regards to our potential gulf system, this will definitely fuel it. Shear also looks to be favorable until around Sunday. We should watch this system closely. #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

Euro, CMC, and ICON pretty much have identical 12z runs with #98L . Impressive to see that agreement 5-6 days out. #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

Lawd she comin. #wx @SCweather_wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

8 months

@Timberwolves @Aura_Protects Deserved. That’s what happens when you play soft with a 23 point lead.

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

3 months

Not even surprised atp. #Beryl #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

21 days

We’re seeing significant short-term shifts with the HWRF today in regards to #Francine . It’s now more in line with other hurricane models. The trend is clear… east & stronger. #tropics #wx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 months

Due east? Alrighty then. #Debby

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

3 months

We likely won’t see any significant strengthening with #Beryl until it can filter out some of the dry air impeding it. I’d expect somewhat of a turnaround overnight during DMAX when convection is probably more widespread. That could be the “kickstart” it needs to moisten the

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

Nasty storm just south of Jay, FL. #flwx @NWSMobile @rzweather

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

Props to the NWS, nailed yesterdays tornado outbreak. #txwx #okwx #arwx

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Treyce Jones

@TreyceJonesWX

2 years

Last 5 runs of the GFS. Not budging. Very consistent. Notice how time continues to move up. “Fantasy” storms don’t do that. The GFS is seeing this happening run after run. Time to respect it, or at least see it as a realistic possibility. #tropics #wx

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