navtrader
@Trader_NAV
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All information tweeted here is for educational purposes only. Please do not treat this as personal financial advice.
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Hourly RSI on $SPX is above 75. It happened on 12/28/21 and on 2/2/22 in the recent history. We know what happened after that.
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With the break of SPX 4222, my LT signal has turned from a bull to bear market. Target 1 - SPX 3800, Target 2 - SPX 3200. There will be huge bear market rallies along the way, as we head towards these targets over the next few months.
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I turned fifty this year. Now short-term swing trading feels like day trading in my 20s. Going forward, I am planning to trade the medium-term swings which last for weeks/months rather than the short-term swings which lasts for days.
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Now the dip buyers are not scared of Inflation, Interest rate hikes, rolling back QE or even the Fed itself. That's how cocky the topping areas of the bull market gets.
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$SPX has rallied 480 points from the bottom without a pullback on the hourly charts. Nothing surprises me in the markets ! When the pullback comes, the bifurcation will resolve. The next phase will be determined then.
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Do not confuse momentum with trend. This is a high momentum bear market rally, but the MT trend is still down. We are at an inflection point and it should resolve by the end of this week. So watch me either turning super bearish or cautiously bullish by the end of the week.
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We are messing around near the bifurcation point. We are due for either a breakout or breakdown on Monday. I think it will resolve down. We'll see.. Have a good weekend !
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$SPX 3800-3850 region is the bifurcation point. I am waiting for a rejection from that area to go short. ST, MT and LT trends are all down at this point.
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Forget CPI. We have a potential sign of the bear pattern on daily SPX. If we trade below 3738 tomorrow, it will be confirmed
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Opex over. All crash puts expired worthless. Option writers won as usual ! CNN Fear & Greed index back to neutral. MT trend continues to be down. Waiting for a spot to get short again.
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There was no fear, climax, capitulation or a washout move. I did see some capitulation in the Crypto space, but not in the $SPX. So the bear market bottom is further ahead.
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$SPX 4325 in now a LT bifurcation point. If we get a hourly close above that, then the bear market is over. The next bounce from here will tell the story. If the bounce fails to make new highs above 4325, we are headed to new bear market lows.
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Bear market rallies are vertical, relentless and don't pullback much. But once they pullback, they don't visit their highs again. You have to keep testing the breaks with small stops. Nothing has changed. The Medium term trend remains down.
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All i have been reading is "Everyone on the planet is bearish and looking for end of the world. I bought the dip and i am looking good !". This is not the kind of sentiment at major market bottoms. Folks need to be shit scared and throw in the towel !.
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It's virtually impossible to predict the future of the market. But you can predict the trend turns in real-time with a high degree of probability (about 70% odds). It took me a good 5-6 years of worthless e-wave practice, before I understood trends and trend turns.
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We got a rejection from a LT pivot. I am expecting a big move to the downside here, given that my MT also turned down from a LT pivot. LT and MT are in Sync again.
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There was an opportunity to go swing long yesterday. But with the big gap-up today, that's no more an opportunity. Back to scalp mode. Until 4000 breaks, the uptrend is intact and I will look for longs only.
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If my LT turns down, I would expect a selloff into SPX 3800-4100 area. Will post here when my LT turns. Stay tuned..
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My medium term indicator turned up today. Last time it did this was in March 2022 when it briefly turned up for a day, which turned out to be a headfake. Let's see if this time if it has any legs !
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$SPX 4222 continues to remain the long term pivot and the bull-bear demarcation line. Once that breaks, we will go into a bear market (by my definition) with a first target of 3800 and a second target of 3200. Let's see if the bears can break 4222 in this leg.
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My medium term trend indicator turned down today. We are back to bear market conditions. Last month's breakout turned out to be a whipsaw
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Bears are silenced. Some bears are making hedged bullish comments. Next stage will be a minor correction and new highs, at which stage they will throw in the towel. That's when the game ends !. Topping process typically takes 1-2 months. MT and LT are both firmly up! Stay tuned.
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It's been a while i tweeted. I have stopped short-term trading and focussing more on medium term swing trades. Will start posting my trades and the medium term trends on a regular basis.
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I am still expecting a selling climax and a bottom in the SPX 3200 zone. If lower projections are generated, i will post an update here.
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Fed did what was widely expected - 75bps increase. They will chase the 2 year yield, until it turns down in earnest. Predicting Fed pause or pivot is a useless exercise. Just watch the 2-year yield.
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That leaves me with two choices - real estate and S&P. Real estate is a great long term investment in an inflationary environment. But that's not my speciality. That leaves me one choice - trading in S&P. I will keep my life simple and peaceful !
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Repeat after me. Liquidity is more important than sentiment. Don't fight the Fed !
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I am travelling and will not be posting any updates this week. I expect the market to put in a short term bottom this week in the SPX $3700-3800 area.
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We reversed from a bifurcation area. It's a corrective action at this point. If it morphs into a change of trend, I will update here. But we need bounce first !
When there is a bifurcation, I will post here. Nothing interesting to add here other than just ride the positions if you are a MT or LT trader. Like I said in my previous posts, this is going to be a 1-2 months of topping process in the $SPX 5200-5400 area.
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I am in a scalp mode waiting for a swing setup. Will update when i get one.
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Back at the 3900 bifurcation zone for the third time. Gap at 3897 filled. Decision time again. Stay tuned.
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I started as a daytrader during the late 90s. I was smart enough to realize the dangers of day trading. If I had not gone bancrupt day trading, I would have definitely ruptured my blood vessel or had a cardiac arrest. Been a short term swing trader since 2000.
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There's a graveyard silence in the bear camp. That's the uncertainty the bear market rallies create. I will continue to probe on the short side with small stops. There will be some whipsaws here. But once we get some momentum, we will not see any new highs after that.
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My system has been on a MT sell since Aug 4. LT continues to be on a buy. When the LT trend changes or any major pivots break, I will post an update.
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Creating and posting charts is easy and an amateur activity. Identifying the trend unambiguously and finding those spots on the charts where to enter, exit and place your stop is true hallmark of a professional trader.
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Market should hit my bifurcation point at tomorrow’s open. Will make my next move based on how the bifurcation resolves!
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$SPX could test the 4000-4025 area tomorrow before breaking down in earnest.
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Tom Mclellan posted an article on AAII which showed record low number of bulls, which was construed as bullish. Every permabull used that as a crutch to support their bullish argument. In bear markets, bullish news is bearish and bearish news is bullish.
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Trend Update. Medium term has turned up today. So This means another rally like in March and Aug. This one could go as high as SPX 4150.
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$SPX 4103 is now the LT pivot. If we get an hourly close below 4103, then my LT would turn down. If and when it breaks down, I will post my projections.
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2023 ended in exuberance. CNN fear and greed index at extreme greed, many other sentiment measures off the charts and extremely low VIX. 2024 will be a vastly different landscape. Too early to make any concrete predictions, but will update as the market trends provide more info.
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Bifurcation point again !. $SPX 3813 should not be broken next week. If we do, the MT trend will turn up. If not, enjoy the downhill ride !
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We are at a MT bifurcation point again. For my bearish scenario to play out, we need to see the current move have a follow thru and break S&P 3764, which will raise the odds of S&P hitting news low, possibly 3200. 70% odds if we break the 3764 low !
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This was another great month for me. Started as a dull month and got exciting at the tail end. Have a good weekend folks !
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Yesterday ES 4200-4225 was an inflection point. But no reversal happened. So you just let it go and wait for a higher inflection point. For today, ES 4300 is the inflection point. If we don't turn here, odds are SPX will go higher and fill the gap at 4472.
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Sentiment is bearish. Weekly/Daily/Hourly are oversold - good ingredients for a rally. If we get a climactic flush, then we could have a sustainable multi-week rally. Without a climax, it would be another ST bear market rally.
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Today $spx hit my first target of 5200 (close enough for govt work). 5200-5400 is the topping zone. We should begin the topping process here which should take a month or two.
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There’s a pesky gap at spx 4017. The Fed volatility on Wednesday could fill that gap. I expect a big downleg after that. I will continue probing for shorts nevertheless.
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Trading is about two things - identifying inflection points (bifurcation points).= and waiting for a reversal near the inflection point. When the reversal happens, you pounce on it, with an HARD STOP of course.
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Never short a momentum driven market. Trend change requires change in market volatility, bifurcation point and a failure at the bifurcation point. None of the 3 have happened yet. I don't call bottoms and tops everyday. I call it when I have solid technical evidence! Stay tuned
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Uh-oh ! That shooting star on the NVDA and SPX yesterday did not augur well. There comes the pullback. I am expecting a pullback to 4700-4800 area and then a rally. That rally should begin the topping process.
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Trend update: LT down, MT Up, ST Up. Market favors longs at this point. A break below $SPX 3900 is required before thinking about swing shorts.
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Fast and furious !. That's how bear market rallies are. I will start looking for a reversal zone to get short tomorrow.
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My MT trend turned up at yesterday's close. New ATHs should be the next expectation.
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I ended July with a -32 points loss. First losing month this year, after making 100+ points every month. Been a great year so far. Aug should be a good month.
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ES 4330-4360 is the topping area for this bounce. I cannot rule out a retest of 4360. If we break 4283, bears will be in control for today. Above 4360 bulls will be in control. Between 4283 and 4360 is the pig slaughter area.
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Market bottoms are high volatile events. If you don't know that, you are new to markets and trading. May 12 was not a high volatile action. Those who think they scooped a bargain when the rest of the world was sleeping often find the rug pulled violently off their feet !
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Monthly charts are broken on many key stocks - AAPL, TSLA, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT. This is going to get very ugly until we reach a monthly oversold condition on these stocks, which have quite a ways to go. I have some technical targets. They are too offensive to even quote !
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With the gap down, my bifurcation resolved to down. MT down now.
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Time for a pullback, but not a trend change. MT uptrend continues.
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On Feb 21, I had identified SPX 4196 as a LT pivot which eventually got invalidated. We are at a similar juncture now. We need a strong rejection from here to continue the bear. I need 2-3 more days to identify a MT and LT pivot. Stay tuned.
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I was a novice in 2000 and missed the top and lost a fortune. Since then i have nailed pretty much every major top. I am going to update when i get the confirmation of a major TOP. Stay tuned...
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Market gapped into my bifurcation point, which was expected. Now waiting for the resolution to either go long or short. ST, MT and LT trends are still down. ST is very close to a buy.
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+100 on another 1/3rd. Looking for a panic selloff to close the last 1/3rd.
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Trend update: LT remains in a bear market since Feb 23, 2022 . MT is in an uptrend since July 27, 2022. I am looking for a correction to long for a swing trade.
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No shorts until the MT turns down. I will post a trend update whenever the MT turns down.
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Based on this channeling, the top for this cycle should occur somewhere in the $SPX 5500-5600 region in about 2-3 months. Not saying it cannot happen earlier. For now, the LT and MT are up. Will update here when that changes.
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We have a 40 year inflation cycle bottoming. There's going to be massive inflation in the coming years and decades. My goal is to preserve my wealth and beat the inflation handsomely (year after year) !
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It's been an awesome last couple of weeks for me. When was the last time i had two back to back trades in a week, each fetching me 150-200 points? Never.
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$SPX MT remains down since Aug 26th. No change there. If we make a new low below the June lows, ideally into the $SPX 3200-3400 area, I would start looking for a cyclical bottom there.
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When there is a bifurcation, I will post here. Nothing interesting to add here other than just ride the positions if you are a MT or LT trader. Like I said in my previous posts, this is going to be a 1-2 months of topping process in the $SPX 5200-5400 area.
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Again, patience is the key here. Bear rallies are fast and furious. I don't have any sell setups at this point - waiting patiently ! MT is still down. So i am looking only for shorts.
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Stopped out again. This has been the pattern for me over the last couple of months. 2-3 losing trades of 10-12 points and then 2-3 big winners of 100 plus points. I see the pattern continuing. My big winner is around the corner !
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I were to wear a trading hat, It's simple. Short the bounces as long as the MT is down. Keep it simple and don't think too much about the long term outcomes just yet.
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Bears failed to break the LT pivot at SPX 4280 in a seasonally weak period. Now that the MT trend had turned up, odds of a major selloff in October is very low. Next seasonally weak period is Mar 2022. Market will continue to remain very volatile, as we try to build a top !
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My MT trend turned to a buy signal near the close today at ES 4369. I don't have any projections at the moment. But the path of least resistance remains upward for now.
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Labor shortage is not going to be a problem going forward. There's an army of degenerate crypto gamblers who will be back to their day jobs !
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Near the bifurcation points, I don't have opinions. I just follow the market signals.
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We need to fall in a sustained fashion from this area. Otherwise we risk the ST turning up. If the ST turns up, i will flip long. Will keep you posted.
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I think it will be a sideways-to-up affair until the Fed decision on Feb 1. Will post an update if i see any inflection points in the current MT uptrend.
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This is 1999 all over again. Back then, it was a mania in dot com stocks. Right now, it's an all pervasive mania - stocks, real estate, crypto. Final stages of bull markets are crazy. Both bulls and bears get killed. Generational top is in the making.
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My MT has been on a sell since Sep 20. Now we at a LT bifurcation point. If the LT bullish structure needs to remain intact, a strong rally is required imminently out of the SPX 4250 area. Otherwise the a LT sell could ensue. Stay tuned...
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We washed out as i mentioned and now we have started a reflex rally. This is very key bifurcation point. To reiterate, if we resolve upwards, expect SPX 4800-4900. If we resolve downwards, expect a 30% drop in the market. Will update when it resolves...
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Perma-bears are the biggest masochists you will come across. They fight the bull market for 12 years and when the bear market presents itself, they start buying dips !
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Medium term trend is very strong and likely peaking. Correction is around the corner, but the medium-term trend will be up until we break ES 3950
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We got rejected from the bifurcation point on 6/28. We are now back again at the bifurcation point. Sideways correction, before the next big drop.
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Looking at the weekly charts of 10 year rates, we are massively overbought. If we hit a recession next year, we could see a pullback to 3 - 3.5% area. After that it would be off to races.
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Back when my system broke $SPX 4170, I had given a target of new ATHs. With the latest information I have, I can narrow down the targets to Target 1: 5200 Target 2: 5400. The rally to these targets should be non-stop without any significant pullbacks.
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My stop at 3633 was taken out overnight. This trade was a scratch. Looking to short again. This is OPEX week. Going to be tricky. But the trend is still down.
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