Looks much like business as usual in Germany: The next coalition will most likely be either a left-leaning “grand coalition” of CDU/CSU and SPD or a leftist “Kenya coalition” of CDU/CSU, SPD, and the Greens. That is the stated plan and the repeatedly expressed intention of leading chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz of the CDU/CSU. Every conservative voter should understand that a vote for the conservative CDU/CSU means a left-wing coalition—either with the leftist SPD alone or with both the leftist SPD and the leftist Greens in a Kenya coalition. Just yesterday, at a campaign event in Saarland, Merz once again made it very clear that he plans to work with the SPD and possibly even the Greens. He repeated the same message during the CSU party conference in Nuremberg, telling Bayerischer Rundfunk that the SPD and Greens can be “reasonable” when it comes to making the “right decisions.” It could not be clearer—Merz wants to govern with the left and form a coalition with the SPD and the Greens, even though over 60% of German voters are projected to vote conservative in the upcoming elections. This stubborn intent to govern with the left is surprising, especially given that polling shows the majority of CDU/CSU voters oppose a left-wing coalition with the same failed parties and the same incompetent politicians of the Ampel coalition. Voters overwhelmingly reject rewarding Scholz, Habeck, and Baerbock with another term after their disastrous policies led to Germany’s current crisis. Yet, despite this clear voter sentiment, Merz stubbornly clings to his coalition plans. The only exception appears to be Markus Söder (CSU), who has repeatedly and emphatically ruled out any coalition with the Greens. This is where things get interesting. According to the latest INSA poll, a grand coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD would have only a razor-thin majority. If the FDP, which is currently polling just below the 5% threshold, manages to enter parliament, the grand coalition would lose its already weak majority. In that case, Merz’s only remaining option—outside of cooperating with the AfD—would be a Kenya coalition. That would put enormous pressure on Söder and the CSU to continue blocking Green participation, potentially leading to a scenario similar to Austria, where coalition talks between the ÖVP and SPÖ collapsed due to a narrow parliamentary majority, ultimately paving the way for FPÖ participation. A similar situation could unfold in Germany if Söder holds firm and refuses to budge on his opposition to the Greens. In that case, if both the grand coalition and the Kenya coalition fail, the only remaining alternative for CDU/CSU leadership would be to seek a majority in the center-right, not on the left. This aligns with the clear preference of CDU/CSU and FDP voters, who overwhelmingly support a center-right coalition rather than the left-wing coalitions Merz is currently advocating. It remains to be seen whether Merz will stick to his pre-election rhetoric or abandon it after the votes are counted. The key question is whether Söder will hold his ground and continue ruling out cooperation with the Greens. Another crucial question is whether CDU/CSU will maintain its rigid firewall stance against the AfD or reconsider its options if no other majority is viable. Small shifts of just one percent in the polls could determine whether entire coalitions are possible or ruled out, mainly due to fluctuations among the three smaller parties—FDP, Die Linke, and BSW—which are currently experiencing the most movement. Meanwhile, the AfD remains stuck at around 21%, the same level since early January, despite strong backing from @ElonMusk and the ongoing immigration crisis, neither of which has significantly boosted AfD support. As things stand, Alice Weidel and her party can expect 20-25%, which is enough to secure second place but far from the ~29% that Austria’s FPÖ achieved to claim first place. In short, nothing new under the German sun. 📊🗳️