Toren Hynes, M.Sc. stands with 🇺🇦 as Торен Хайнс
@TorenWX
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Future PHd candidate in @dasoglab at @DalhousieChem & amateur Canadian #hurricane tracker. #NAFO Fella. @TorenWX on
Nova Scotia, Canada
Joined February 2019
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The latest (12Z) HWRF and HMON runs show an absolutely RIDICULOUSLY intense post-tropical hurricane
#FIONA
hitting
#NovaScotia
on Saturday at 6 AM.
914 mbar? That would be the strongest landfalling extratropical storm anywhere in the WORLD.
#NSStorm
#PEStorm
#NLwx
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125
352
One of my greatest concerns during
#FIONA
is going to be the
#CansoCauseway
. (red circle)
A track just to the west of the Causeway is going to result in a massive surge in the Strait.
Also remember: most of NS's power comes from Cape Breton via 3 transmission lines (yellow line).
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330
@KyivIndependent
Putin isn't afraid of much, but he is afraid of NATO and its Article 5. Making it clear that sabotaging a nuclear power plant will trigger Article 5 is the only effective deterrent I can see.
6
11
116
Our "Frankencane" is looking more and more like a real hurricane with every passing hour.
It is trying to close off an eyewall, and is likely a fully subtropical storm by now.
A full transition to tropical storm or weak hurricane wouldn't surprise me in the least.
#NSStorm
4
14
89
@drjodypalmer
@oracogan
@TeenVogue
@caj
@NPAC_APPC
@pressfreedom
He intentionally didn't ID himself because he knew what he was doing wasn't quite legal.
that being said he wasn't wearing a mask, so you might be able to identify him from his face if you're good at that.
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69
That moment when ASCAT misses all the tropical disturbances you are interested in... :(
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6
70
Who turned down the trade winds in the Atlantic?
Looks to me like this ridiculously warm Main Development Region is going to do one thing: get warmer over the next two weeks.
#HurricaneSeason
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@KyivIndependent
It's russia. I'm not surprised. Private Conscriptovitch likely stole some wiring to make a few extra bucks on eBay.
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3
59
Here are a few of my thoughts re: the upcoming
#hurricane
season, sorted by area:
1) Likely very inactive, due to shear and dry air from the expected El Nino.
2) The Gulf isn't really affected by ENSO, so a weak tropical entity could get fairly strong here. (1/x)
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11
58
Our little low is certainly looking more
#subtropical
now than yesterday, as it's become increasingly detached from frontal boundaries.
If convection can sustain itself or increase, subtropical cyclogenesis could follow soon.
5
7
57
It is still 10.5 weeks until the
#HurricaneSeason
arrives, however, this isn't what I like to see...
*Record warm sea surface temperatures, focused in the main development region.
*Anomalous rising motion over Africa
These 2 things look very favourable for lots of hurricanes.🌀
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11
50
Over the past few hours, convection has really started blowing up just to the east of the centre of our low near Cape Hatteras.
This is often how subtropical cyclogenesis starts.
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6
48
It's said that the early bird gets the worm, and that's certainly true when you're playing
@IntoTheLongDark
and you'd like to get great screenshots.
This is the first light of dawn just east of St. Christopher's Church.
0
3
48
Does anything here look suspicious?
I'm sure that big blob of warm water south east of Newfoundland is totally normal...
right?
Jokes aside, a whole ocean being so much warmer than normal is...well, scary.
This can't be good news.
15
16
49
Looks like our African Easterly Wave in the MDR has a vortmax near its northern end and is firing some convection very close to it.
In order for this to become a tropical cyclone, it needs to keep this up for 12-24 hours and make a surface low.
#HurricaneSeason
0
4
44
Is it really June 19th? Looks more like August 19th to me.
Quite the wave train going on there!
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0
42
Here we have Invest
#90L
making landfall near Louisbourg,
#CapeBreton
this morning.
The radar looks awfully much like that of a tropical cyclone, and the storm looks to have somehow managed to maintain convection right to landfall.
#NSStorm
3
7
40
Is this June 18th or August 18th? I'm confused.
That's quite the wave train coming off Africa!
#92L
is the leader, and it's starting to build increased convection once more.
The wave behind also looks really healthy, and the NHC is watching it too.
3
5
38
As a a
@CUPE3912
member, I stand in solidarity with striking faculty at
@cbufa
and
@MUNFaculty
. Academia is no space for exploitation!
3
9
39
Thank you to the
@hfxtransit
driver of Route 1 (passed Dal at 4:55 PM) for telling your supervisor to flag down the bus on Route 370 so I could get to Porters Lake on time after the 1 was delayed due to a fistfight between passengers.
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2
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It looks increasingly likely that we still have one more tropical cyclone left in the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, coming from a Central American Gyre in around 8-10 days.
If it forms and gets a name, it'll be
#VINCE
.
Pretty impressive, considering we have a strong El Nino.
1
5
38
@KyivIndependent
Not sure I'd call this a super strong storm, but then again, maybe 1001 mbar is quite strong for Ukraine. I'm more used to the 980s/970s where I live.
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When your invest tracks look like a squished spider, you know that steering currents are weak and that forecasting the track of any TC that does form will be a very annoying affair.
#Invest97L
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6
35
Despite all the rumblings about the
#ElNino
coming on, the Atlantic doesn't seem to want to turn off the thermostat.
And with the trades staying rather weak, it doesn't look like it's going to be cooling down quickly anytime soon.
Very interesting for sure...
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4
35
Is that a vortical hot tower wrapping upshear around
#IDALIA
's core? If yes, then it's likely she's about to start intensifying and fast! She already has a barometric pressure of 995 mbar, which is very low for a 35-knot tropical storm.
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7
29
@Theholisticpsyc
The 3 steps to healing that I came up with on a walk:
0) I'll pull my head out of my bum.
1) My current behaviour is hurting myself/others.
2) I was abused as a child and it wasn't my fault.
3) I am responsible for my current behaviour.
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0
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@IAPonomarenko
You know who's having power outages due to russian missile attacks on Ukraine's infastructure?
russia.
Because they're spending their money on missiles instead of trying to keep their own power grid up and running!
0
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32
I must be sounding like a broken record by now, but here I am, talking (again...) about the weak trades over the Atlantic that don't want to get strong anytime soon and the warm MDR...that's only getting warmer despite the El Nino. (1/3)
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6
31
Looks like I got a CGS-M scholarship from NSERC. That'll come in handy in my studies, don't you think?
5
0
30
@CodysLab
Can you put the original video back up please? Your message that
#BlackLivesMatter
is too important to remove.
You do know that you can mute people from commenting/remove hateful comments, no?
1
0
27
You know it's Friday the 13th when the global weather models want to spin up a (sub)tropical cyclone over the next 3 days, with the CMC and the RGEM bringing it to near
#hurricane
intensity.
#ARLENE
#NSwx
2
5
29
Regardless of whether
#Barry
becomes a hurricane or not, it'll be one heck of a soaker. Over *400 MILLIMETERS* of rain could fall in the hardest hit areas over the next 5 days or so. Not just at the point of landfall, but far inland. That's the greatest danger here.
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The Euro ensembles are still all about this potential subtropical cyclone and bringing it to Nova Scotia.
We shall see if the NHC names it. Definitely an oddity.
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@nspowerinc
Here's an idea -- why not take some of that CEO pay and put it towards improving infrastructure, so that the grid doesn't trip out when there's a heavy load?
2
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26
I'll be striking from 12-4PM every Wednesday and Friday, in lieu of teaching CHEM 3103.
Hopefully
@DalhousieU
gets their act together and decides to give us competitive pay for our work! We deserve more than $16/$25 an hour!
Dal has ended negotiations with CUPE 3912. See you on the picket lines. Picketing starts 8am at McCain.
#DalStrike
#Dalhousie
#WageParityNowAndAlways
#DalWorksBecauseWeWork
#nodeal
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@IAPonomarenko
Having +10 degrees Celsius in Nova Scotia on New Year's Day is ALSO a bit weird...
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Well, it's official folks -- I passed my Master's Defense.
Now I can put the letters MSc after my name!
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27
Next Tuesday, global models are hinting at a cold front stalling out east of Newfoundland and then dying.
An area of low pressure forms at its tail end.
Then a high then moves over Atlantic Canada, cutting it off.
Many a pre-season (sub)tropical storm has formed this way...
1
1
23
From
@CBmesonet
, here are the peak wind gusts for yesterday and today's storm.
As I expected, the strongest gusts were inland, away from the coast and the cooler capping marine layer.
Good example of how mesonets can help improve local forecasts in similar future setups.
#NSStorm
3
5
24
The Main Development Region in the
#Atlantic
can't get any warmer...right?
CMC ensembles: hold my beer.
These below average trades should help the Atlantic warm even farther.
This whole setup going into hurricane season is very intriguing, that's for sure.
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We have a warm seclusion!
The centre of our cyclone has become detached from the occluded front to its north and west, and is surrounded by light to moderate convection.
Over the next 18 hours, it should shed itself fully of frontal boundaries...
1
1
24
Arrived back at work in the
@chitnislab
this AM.
Who TF did this?? I think
@KMMarczenko
is to blame.
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@ask_aubry
I would agree. Women who give abusive boys/men a free pass are almost as bad as the abusers themselves IMO.
0
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To all my new followers: thank you for being here. I promise that I will try to keep you up-to-date on
#FIONA
as best I can.
However: I am an inorganic chemist, NOT a meteorologist by training.
Please check
@ECCC_CHC
&
@NHC_Atlantic
for the latest official forecasts.
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@crownweather
@crankywxguy
Aircraft recon is the most reliable wind data there is. Going against it is a very foolish thing to do.
He did this downplaying with
#Laura
too.
I think he doesn't quite understand the nature of TC winds and that they are gustier than those in a typical nor'easter.
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@IAPonomarenko
Hopefully there's lots of careless smokers at the warehouses where the missiles are being stored.
Of course, we could always lend the smokers a hand with a few FPV drones, right?
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1
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@JuliaDavisNews
The solution, russia: just leave Ukraine. It's not that hard. Come on, you can do it.
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A few of the
@DalhousieChem
faculty/grad students gathering by a
#campfire
in
#DollarLake
provincial park. From left to right:
@chitnislab
,
@awhspeed
,
@ErinWelsh_
(Ben is behind her),
@KMMarczenko
, Alex Mayo, and
@JoeBedard_
.
@dal_cgss
1
1
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Thanks to
@ZJAyres
for running this series! Awareness is the first step to taking meaningful action, regardless of whether it's climate change, chemistry, or a mental health challenge.
#297
. Toren Hynes (
@TorenWX
) on when he was growing up being told he was extremely incompetent socially. As a result he becomes very nervous very easily in close friendships and afraid that he'd either be abandoned or taken advantage of.
#100Voices
#AcademicMentalHealth
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2
20
Taking a look at the latest climate modelling, I am seeing some patterns.
1) The Caribbean is dry. No surprise given +ENSO.
2) Lots of tropical waves north of the Antilles.
3) Gulf of Mexico is a wildcard.
4) Generally above average rainfall off the US East Coast
#HurricaneSeason
2
1
20
@_celia_bedelia_
"Feminine hygiene products" translated literally would mean ANY product used by someone who identifies as feminine to maintain good hygiene. That would include soap, toilet paper, and deodorant -- none of which are menstrual supplies.
0
0
19
Toren: can we have Category 3 winds in Canada??
#FIONA
: YES
The 06Z Euro absolutely pummels
#SableIsland
, with sustained winds >100 knots.
I have never seen
@TropicalTidbits
maxed out over such a huge area in this region.
Stay safe horses...
#NSStorm
#NLwx
#PEStorm
2
5
20
Invest
#92L
looks like it's becoming more convectively active, impressive especially considering it's near DMIN.
That should help it build a closed surface circulation, which should favour tropical cyclogenesis.
DMAX might just be enough for it to become a TD.
1
1
19
Looks like
#LEE
might finally be starting to re-intensify after a battle with shear and dry air yesterday.
In the last 20 minutes or so, a vortical hot tower has wrapped around the northern eyewall. If the storm can keep firing these upshear, further intensification is likely.
4
1
20
The long-range GEFS is all over that ridge over Atlantic Canada.
It really doesn't want to knock it over for over a MONTH!
Note: even if the "big picture" like this ends up verifying, doesn't mean you can't get a big snowstorm... it's just a lot harder.
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5
20
It hasn't been officialised yet, but I am the winner of the 2018/19 Walter J Chute Prize in Chemistry.
Presentation of awards will occur at 5PM on February 11th.
Hope to see you there.
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0
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The
@CUPE3912
flag flies in front of the
#KillamLibrary
at
@DalhousieU
, as my union strikes for
#FairWages
.
#WageParityNow
#TAStrike
0
8
20
@drjenwolkin
Look, Jen, you are in the right here.
Kids should NOT be forced to hug anyone they don't want to.
"Because it's family" is not a valid excuse.
Consent is important at any age, regardless of the relationship!
0
0
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Hey
@DalhousieU
, you should do this too. Oil and gas are going to go the way of the dinosaur.
Concordia University Foundation to Divest and Make 100% Sustainable Investments By 2025 via
@nationalpost
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7
17
Hurricane
#FIONA
is very heavily east-weighted, with a big blob of convection on its east side.
Rain in
#PuertoRico
will continue for at least a day, which is exactly what the island doesn't need.
A landfall in the Dominican is very likely soon.
3
8
19
Our little wannabe subtropical storm is firing convection around its low level centre.
It is currently struggling a bit with southerly shear, which is injecting dry mid-level air into it -- hence why the convection doesn't surround the centre yet. 1/x
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