Tony Fabrizio
@TonyFabrizioGOP
Followers
9,370
Following
190
Media
25
Statuses
2,054
Veteran GOP Pollster/Strategist. Proud father of 3 and grandfather to the most perfect little Princes & Princess! Opinions are mine alone. RT doesnt = agreement
Ft. Lauderdale/DC
Joined April 2015
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It is clear that
@realDonaldTrump
needs to get better political advisers. This disaster could have been avoided.
If Republicans aren't worried about a Blue Wave in 2018 after VA and this, well. Good luck. Complacency is death.
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For all the D.C. beltway types wringing their hands about
@POTUS
and the GOP base. Republicans in Congress are the ones losing the base.
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@POTUS
crushing a hypothetical GOP primary field. So much for the “buyer’s remorse” the DC insiders are convinced the GOP has.
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@HolmesJosh
is 100% right
No words minced here: “If you can replicate his draw amongst rural, working-class voters without the insanity, you have a permanent governing majority,” said Josh Holmes, a top adviser to McConnell.
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Among GOP voters nationally, Newsmax and OANN are hot on Fox News' tail thanks to Fox defections and Trump supporters. Read it here
@FoxNews
@newsmax
@OANN
@CNNPolitics
@ABCPolitics
@NBCPolitics
@CBSNews
@MSNBC
@FoxBusiness
@axios
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This just underscores how many people who enter the WH believe that they can “change” POTUS.
Trump Thinks He’s His Own Best Messenger. Where Does That Leave Bill Shine? via
@katierogers
and me
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Looking like Christie/Rubio debate exchange was a murder-suicide.
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Bet we could name the consultants!
The worst part of today, it was all because some consultant told Cruz or Hawley they’d raise lotsa money online off the stunt.
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Excited to help
@realDonaldTrump
continue to make history by stopping another 4 years of Obama policies to
#MakeAmericaGreatAgain
! 1/2
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On a day perfect for the GOP to be laser focused on inflation and the stock market, this causes an unnecessary distraction.
It didn't take much more than 15 minutes for REPUBLICANS to begin trashing Lindsey Graham's 15-week abortion ban.
'Bad idea.'
'Stupid.'
story with
@MarcACaputo
&
@scottwongDC
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@RogerJStoneJr
@AdamLaxalt
I heard Cruz was changing his slogan from "TrusTED" to "TainTED"
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This tweet aged REAL well….
Crazy thought. What if
@andrewcuomo
who is sitting on $18+ mill in campaign funds is playing the long game. Resign, remove yourself from the “frying pan,” avoid impeachment & hearings, recede from the public eye only to resurface in late February/early March of ‘22 (1/2)
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Are you kidding me???? Anyone who dies due to political violence is a tragedy. But to suggest that Donald Trump should have died is the lowest of lows.
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These debates are better than any Christmas I had as a kid!!!! Just SO, SO many gifts for
@realDonaldTrump
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Missed in the CNN poll out today. Health Care for Illegals - 59% oppose overall, but more importantly among two key groups Democrats need to defeat
@realDonaldTrump
, 63% of Independents oppose and 61% of Moderates. Talk about tying the Dems an anchor around their neck!
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In a 5-way race against 4 well known challengers, 2 of which ran against him before. I’d say that is pretty strong.
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This will never pass the House
A populist move that doubles as way to isolate/wound Cohn on tax reform + expedite his departure from WH?
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For those interested in the full set of data.
A new poll of the GOP electorate by Fabrizio and Lee shows the Rs split into five “tribes,” with varying levels of intensity around Trump and whether he should lead the party going forward
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Top media players need to understand the new news and info landscape for millions of GOP voters as Fox News isn't the only game in town anymore. Read it at
@jmartNYT
@maggieNYT
@jonathanvswan
@jaketapper
@brianstelter
@chucktodd
@howiekurtz
@margbrennan
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While I applaud my friend
@SenRickScott
courage for staking out an agenda (though don’t understand embracing or saddling GOP with a tax increase), if you’re gonna challenge
@LeaderMcConnell
just say so. Don’t shadow box.
MEMO FOR REPORTERS--When anonymous consultants who helped lose the Senate majority complain about Rick Scott's plan, call me and I will destroy them on the record. The idea that we should be timid & quiet without a plan is antiquated thinking from the 90's
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The new silent majority: People who don't tweet
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@realDonaldTrump
is the master of his message and it’s been a huge success bringing millions of new voters to GOP and growing a movement 2/2
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@JasonMillerinDC
is right! But why interrupt your enemy when they are in the middle of repeatedly impaling themselves????
.
@JasonMillerinDC
: "If I were Biden I would fire everybody in that White House."
@HeatherChilders
@BobSellersTV
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in my 30+ years as a political professional I’ve never seen the DC establishment and media more disconnected with real America…WOW
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@jdawsey1
Remember that the GOP Primary in WY is over 9 months away. An eternity in politics.
A lot of talk about dethroning Liz Cheney, and even some pressure from Trump to do it, but she had plenty, plenty of votes to stay among her conference. Will see what Wyoming brings.
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@maggieNYT
good message, but really short term. If vaccine estimates are anywhere close to being right, most will be vaccinated before September 2021. That means re-opening schools becomes less of an issue as teachers unions face mounting pubic opinion to re-open if vaccinated.
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@PollWatch2020
Looking at the undecided voters at least in our
@WSJ
poll, it could be 6 or more.
With heavy Dem-lean pollsters CNN and Quinnipiac showing Republicans +4 on the Generic Ballot, are we headed for a Republican +6 or more on Election Day?
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And for those wondering how the base reacted to Bannon's firing...it was a big yawn.
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If all 29 million SOTU viewers voted in the 2020 election (not likely), they would represent only 18% of those who voted. That’s right, less than 1 in 5. Seems to me that tens of millions of Americans chose to “vote with their remote” and chose an option other than
@POTUS
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@JDVance1
Thank you Senator for your kind words. These folks had you losing in your Senate primary in most every one of their polls only to have their candidate nearly come in 3rd.
According to this garbage pollster, I was going to lose the Republican primary *after* a Trump endorsement 19 to 15.
Tony Fabrizio is both the best and most honest pollster in America.
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100% correct!
Message I hope we hear from
@realDonaldTrump
Tue.:
“Are you better off than you were four years ago...and are you willing to give it all up and go back to how things used to be?”
Puts focus on accomplishments and works whether it’s a change vs. status quo or ideological battle.
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Thank you to
@JDVance1
Our firm is proud to serve as you pollsters and be a part of your winning team. Next up
@TimRyan
!
Also, a note to political journalists: the best pollster in the race was
@TonyFabrizioGOP
. Maybe in the future don’t treat garbage polls from Remington the same as Tony’s because they’re both “internal.” The best independent pollster was
@RobertCahaly
. Kudos to both.
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The story of this election is Clinton generally outperformed Obama in his counties, but
@realDonaldTrump
blew it out in Romney counties
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@LaCivitaC
We will be going over BOTH the Fox and CBS demo data with a fine tooth comb. The demo’s in Adult or RV survey samples should NOT have dramatic shifts. Should stay relatively constant. We shall see.
@FoxNews
will soon release another round of polling..what are we looking for? To see if the 2020 Trump voters are undersampled like they were last time -and for any other "unexplained" Demographic shifts.
@TonyFabrizioGOP
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Only for people who don’t understand campaigns. Leading 4 major opponents by as much as 4 to 1 is always a good thing.
@TonyFabrizioGOP
@POTUS
Honestly, no idea why you're boasting about these numbers. They're pretty god-awful for Trump.
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The most important thing Bannon and WH can do RE: 2018 mid-terms is ensure the clear communication and best execution of
@POTUS
's policies.
Trump World — Including Steve Bannon — Is Already Looking At The 2018 Midterms
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So incredibly sad to lose my mentor and friend. He was certain proof that one person could change the world.
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@RogerJStoneJr
is a great guy and loyal friend
@JoyAnnReid
Roger Stone might be a nice person when sober, but probably not. We may never know.
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See how News network viewership among GOP voters impacts likelihood to get COVID vaccine. Here’s a hint - majority of 2 Networks GOP viewers say they won’t get the vaccine
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With all due respect, you presume Trump voters blame the
@POTUS
for the failures of the health care bills. They don't. They blame Congress
Every day for the last week, there has been bad health care news for WH and each day that bad news was overshadowed by Trump tweets
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Those who continue to expect
@PresidentTrump_
to talk like a typical Republican, were clearly paying no mind to his message or how he won
Trump didn't speak as a conventional Republican. He spoke as Donald Trump.
@danbalz
gives us his take, wise as ever.
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So honored and proud to have served as pollsters for
@netanyahu
in his stunning victory tonight. Today, Israeli voters re-elected a strong leader who will kept them safe, secure and prosperous.
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That is a HUGE shift in just 8 years....
Fayette County, GA
2008: McCain 65-35 (+30)
2012: Romney 65-34 (+31)
2016: Trump 57-38 (+19)
2020: Trump 53-46 (+7)
2020: Loeffler 54-46 (+8)
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Great piece by George Will on Trump.
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Our new poll conducted jointly with
@JohnAnzo
for
@AARP
in FL shows two tighter than expected races for Senate and Governor.
.
@AARP_FL
poll shows Social Security, Medicare may be flash points in
@MarcoRubioo
and
@ValDemings
Senate race
Reporting by
@ChristineSexton
#FlaPol
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While hidden at the moment, Biden has a base problem. Sanders and Warren are outflanking him on the left. So when the aura of his ballot strength against
@realDonaldTrump
fades, so will his lead in the Dem primaries.
Biden 30, Sanders 19, Warren 15, Buttigieg 8, Harris 7, O'Rourke 3 per Q-Pac... Trendline attached... Biden/Sanders are now back to March Q-Pac numbers. Warren holding her gains.
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Orrin Hatch was. GREAT American. RIP.
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Well
@HolmesJosh
we now know for certain that if
@mcuban
ever harbored the thought of running for President, it certainly won’t be as a Republican! This move puts him at the head of the “woke” lane in the Democrat party.
Imagine thinking that playing a sport in an empty arena is more important than your allegiance to the country.
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Double whammy for GOPers in Congress - get blame for ObamaCare repeal/replace failure and base will blame them if
@POTUS
agenda not passed.
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Question is does
@GOPLeader
take
@mattgaetz
to task for violating his edict? My bet is that
@mattgaetz
is itching for that fight.
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Crazy thought. What if
@andrewcuomo
who is sitting on $18+ mill in campaign funds is playing the long game. Resign, remove yourself from the “frying pan,” avoid impeachment & hearings, recede from the public eye only to resurface in late February/early March of ‘22 (1/2)
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What if the turnout models are wrong and turnout looks more like 2014 than it does 2012?
top GOP pollster: "Trump recovering, not enough to dig out of hole. superior HRC data/digital/GOTV too much to overcome. GOP holds Senate."
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Survives??? I’d call that a landslide in
@LizCheney
favor considering there was supposedly 100+ members ready to vote her out!
🚨CHENEY SURVIVES.
61 vote to oust her
145 vote to keep her
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Sorry all about the typo! Tweeted wrong version of slide. Here is correct one.
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Congrats!!!
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For the umpteenth time, national polls especially at this juncture are largely meaningless. But I guess they make good headlines.
New 2020 head-to-heads in national Quinnipiac poll just out:
Biden 53%, Trump 40%
Sanders 51%, Trump 42%
Harris 49%, Trump 41%
Warren 49%, Trump 42%
Buttigieg 47%, Trump 42%
Booker 47%, Trump 42%
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@MarcACaputo
if the turnout was +6 GOP and he lost by 7, that means bigger than average GOP defections and big margin among Indies for the Dem.
Wow. For a special election, HD-72 turnout is pretty big, might come close to 45k.
Turnout as of 6:30 pm was 36%
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If
@realDonaldTrump
speech tonight is anything like Mexico visit would not be surprised to see national 4-way ballots TIED in a week.
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@WilsonWPA
Thanks for citing our poll but the cross-tabs always tell the real story. Among
@GovRonDeSantis
favorables Trump leads RD 47/28. Among the 72% favorable to both, Trump leads 55/25 and among those very favorable to both (32% of sample), Trump crushes RD 69/18.
Fabrizio is Trump's pollster + a pro. His latest poll shows:
-DeSantis beats Biden by 3
-Trump loses to Biden by 3
-DeSantis is within striking distance despite non-stop attacks from Trump
-Among GOP primary voters, DeSantis is more liked has more room to grow than Trump
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Just finished 2,000 sample post-elect national survey of 2016 voters. PEOTUS first-ever job approval 55% approve/45% disapprove.
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The polling industry needs to reassess what happened that caused the disparity!
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Now, this new data about
@Sen_JoeManchin
compared to
@LeaderMcConnell
and
@GOPLeader
among GOP voters nationally is sure to make tongues wag in DC!
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Sorry
@taylorswift13
you endorsed
@PhilBredesen
in 2018 and we kicked your ass then and we will kick it again!
After stoking the fires of white supremacy and racism your entire presidency, you have the nerve to feign moral superiority before threatening violence? ‘When the looting starts the shooting starts’??? We will vote you out in November.
@realdonaldtrump
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Yes. 80% knew she endorsed Bredesen and it didn’t matter one bit
Remember when she was so influential she helped Phil win the TNsen race?
@WardBaker
@LaurenRaeTN
@eliz_gregory
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Anyone who knows me, knows I'm not easily outdone in the use of colorful language, but
@Scaramucci
gives me a run for my $ in that article.
Bryan Lanza, formerly of Trumpworld, messages support:"Anthony is a colorful guy. We shouldn't be shocked to see him use colorful language."
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America lost a true Patriot today with the loss of
@SenatorDole
. May he Rest In Peace. My prayers and sympathy to Elizabeth and Robin.
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@maggieNYT
@baseballcrank
They can’t eliminate Zeldin’s district as they start drawing the new districts from Montauk Point headed west.
Yes that will be one area of pressure. It won’t be the only one, particularly in a state no Republican has won a statewide election in in what will by then by twenty years, and it’s unlikely to be someone running as a Trump acolyte.
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Still taking bets when she jumps into the Senate race against Warnock
Interview: Marjorie Taylor Greene shrugs off Democrat bid to strip her committee slots.
@mtgreenee
says: 'They don’t even realize they’re helping me. I’m pretty amazed at how dumb they are.'
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What a joke!
Democratic lawmakers considering challenge to
@realDonaldTrump
’s Electoral College victory
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I grew up on All American Burgers and Fries. The only burgers that can compete with In n Out.
Trump ordered $200 worth of burgers from Long Island drive-in for flight home after NYPD officer’s wake
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I want to be the first to congratulate the next President
@realDonaldTrump
! Thank you for having us as part of your team!
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In last 7 weeks,
@POTUS
image among GOP -14 net,
@SpeakerRyan
-9 net, but
@SenateMajLdr
-25 net!
@VP
image stays statistically the same.
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Same here…
Trump Administration, Day 5: Still not in a gay concentration camp or electrocuted by Mike Pence.
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And you will be a superstar!
I'm on the ground in Michigan as the new comms director for Team Trump in Michigan and the
@MIGOP
.
Michigan is ground zero for this election and I'm excited to help deliver a big win here in November!
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Thank you
@MaraLiasson
Finally, some one in the media points out how meaningless early polling in a Presidential can be.
check this out:
-June 1983: Mondale 49%, Reagan 39%
-June 1991: George H.W. Bush 51%, Democrat 28%, Don't know 21%
-June 1995: Dole 48%, Clinton 44%
-June 2011: Republican 44%, Obama 39%
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$128 Million gets Bloomberg 6%. His consultants must be laughing all the way to the bank!
#National
@MorningConsult
Poll (12/23-29):
Biden 32%
Sanders 21%
Warren 14%
Buttigieg 8%
Bloomberg 6%
Yang 4%
Booker 3%
Klobuchar 3%
Steyer 3%
Bennet 1%
Castro 1%
Delaney 1%
Gabbard 1%
Williamson 1%
Patrick 0%
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Odd that
@RonDeSantisFL
would launch a not so veiled attack on
@FLGovScott
in his announcement to replace Scott especially when
@FLGovScott
approval ratings with GOP primary voters is extremely strong.
.
@RonDeSantisFL
says he will "drain the swamp" in Tallahassee that needs to be drained. First off, when you say swamp in these parts it is usually associated with a school in Gainesville
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@TheFix
@washingtonpost
We have created a new standard for Clinton. No malicious intent.Wonder if the IRS would accept same on tax evasion
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CONGRATS to Caroline! Well deserved
Caroline Wiles will be Trump's director of scheduling in the White House, Trump spox Sean Spicer tells reporters this morning
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@dhellingkc
@jmartNYT
@RogerJStoneJr
Manafort is a YUGE get for Trump! The best and most experienced Delegate/Convention manager in the GOP
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This is ridiculous! In 2018, Taylor Swift endorsed Phil Bredesen in her home state of TN for Senate and Marcia Blackburn beat him by 11 points.
Lots of chatter about this on right today.
@charliekirk11
just now, at a TPUSA confab in Las Vegas, on the possibly of TS endorsing Biden:
"That will be a tsunami that will be very difficult to thwart... we better be prepared. It seems as though things are aligning for that."
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I try to avoid watching a bunch of cable news. But when I’m at the gym (yes, I go to the gym) it is hard to avoid. I really think that cable nets need to adopt a similar protocol to CNBC where their on air “experts” reveal their relevant experience and potential conflicts.
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From a purely political standpoint, if we as Republicans are so convinced that the Democrats are making a huge political mistake in shutting down the government, why are we so desperately trying to convince them not to???Altruism???
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Effect??? 🤔
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How long will it be till we declare
@realDonaldTrump
President because it is obvious he has won! Congrats!
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@PeterSchorschFL
@fineout
@MarcACaputo
"Fried Momentum?" I think not. This data strongly suggests that
@nikkifried
is barking up the wrong tree in going after
@GovRonDeSantis
on his handling of COVID.
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