Tom Wilson
@TomWilsonHorses
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Horse Racing | Data | Bloodstock | Founder : racing² | Blog - Email - racingsquared @gmail .com
North East, England
Joined September 2018
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🇦🇺 racing² yearling ratings AUS & NZ 🇳🇿
May 2024 Update
Here's our regular tracking update regarding the performance of racing² yearling ratings from 2023, as the horses run as 2yos across the 2023 / 2024 season.
All ratings are derived from biomechanics and gait analysis
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We lost Emaraty Hero at Ripon today.
He was our best horse and one we loved from the first time we saw him.
Absolutely devastated.
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European Yearling sales season starts next week in Deauville at the Arqana August sale.
That means lots of biomechanic analysis over the coming months. We spent the last 8 months building a database of 6000 yearling walk videos to compare this years' crop against.
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🇺🇸 Keeneland September Book 1 🇺🇸
Highly rated lots on racing² analytics at the Keeneland September yearling sale.
Hip 70
Charlatan x Guarana
Hill ‘n’ Dale
Coolmore / Peter Brandt
A $1,400,000 yearling for first crop sire Charlatan. He’s a wonderful colt out of Ghostzapper
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Delighted to have purchased Lot 105 Expert Eye x Love And Cherish
@GoffsUK
Premier Yearling Sale today.
This filly received a projected OR of 105 and 100 from our 2 biomechanic models and will go into training with Grant Tuer.
Shares available at 10%, 5% and 2.5%. DM for info
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Breeze Videos ✅
Lot 31 Havana Gold x Liberty Lady put up the fastest time on the day.
Here's her biomechanic video, which we now compare against a historic database of breezes since 2018 in order to produce a predicted Official Rating
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Equine Geometry: how measuring yearling angular and geometric data helps to identify horses with high performance potential
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Breeze Up Analytics
Managed to get the DeepLabCut model to a level where it can accurately track the movements of horses as they Breeze.
This enables us to build up a biomechanic profile of each horse as they stride, creating a database for future comparisons
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Biomechanic evaluations of yearlings at the Goffs Premier Yearling sale ongoing.
This is Lot 74 Too Darn Hot x Kelly Nicole. Consigned by Newells Park Stud.
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Study Horse Racing as a sport.
Rather than just a betting pursuit.
You will enjoy it more. I know I do.
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We just bought Emaraty Hero for 20,000gns at the sales and we are absolutely buzzing 🙌
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⭐️ New Purchase ⭐️
Delighted to secure Lot 155 at the Tatts Craven Breeze Up sale. An Oasis Dream colt out of a blacktype mare, Gambissara. She was 2nd in the Italian Oaks
25%, 10%, 5%, 2.5% shares available now
Link: …
✉️ Please message if interested
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Writing a book about angles for the Cheltenham Festival 🐎
Out at the end of the month - 16,000 words completed currently only another 15,000 to go!
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Final Results for the Cheltenham Portfolio
Friday = +233.6pts
Total = +311.6pts
ROI 58.4%
🔥🔥🔥
Going to run a portfolio of angles for Cheltenham. Could get a bit wild 😬
Backing to Win & Place @ BFSP.
All Irish based horses 🇮🇪
All Gordon Elliot horses 🍺
All Davy Russell rides 🔨
All Willie Mullins Mares 👧
All Willie Horses Top on OR Non Hcps 📈
19: +258
18: +213
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After two weeks of manually labelling thousands of images of horses...
My deeplabcut model is getting better at recognising body parts and biomechanics in horse walks
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Send your horses to:
Grant Tuer
George Boughey
Kevin De Foy
Mike Murphy
Book the following jockeys:
Jack Mitchell
Jason Hart
Sean Kirrane
Rhys Clutterbuck
That’s my opinion on how owners can maximise wins.
So many owners just don’t care 🤷♂️
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📝The Application of Money 📝
An article looking at the impact of the volume of money traded against horses in the Betfair Exchange Market.
All shares and retweets appreciated.
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Already getting excited about European Breeze Up season kicking off soon!
Lots of new innovations coming into our racing² Breeze Up Analytics product for 2023.
#Biomechanics
#Kinematics
#GaitCycles
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📝 Predicting the Ability of Yearlings 📝
Ahead of sales season, a short piece outlining an ongoing piece of work to predict the ability of yearlings.
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🇦🇪 Dubai Breeze Up Sale 🇦🇪
Analysing stride and biomechanics for horses at the Dubai Breeze Ups.
This is Lot 1 Yoshida x Santacafe, offered by Tradewinds Stud
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Uisce Ur wins at 50/1 👍
5:40 Wetherby Crakehall Lad 33/1 & Uisce Ur 50/1
Both 2pt Win
Crakehall Lad is by Manduro and goes up to 2m7f tomorrow.
Progeny are 2/3, 3 places 66% +33pts when doing so
Uisce Ur is by City Honours and gets first time cheekpieces. Progeny are 2/8 25% +20pts when doing so.
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Finally built a database with all the purchase prices of horses since 2010. It combines all sales results from Tatts UK & IRE, Goffs, Arqana.
Combined with on track results. Means I can do “price per win”, “price per group win” by sire, trainer, jockey from now on 👌
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📝 Buying Wins at the Sales 📝
How Thoroughbred investors can identify value at the sales:
📊 Sire WTRR
📊 Sire GRTR
📊 Sire GWTR
📊 Quality of Mares sent to each sire
📊 Sire uplift on Mare Quality
Retweet’s appreciated.
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In 2018 we decided to send our horses to Grant as all data & metrics highlighted him as a trainer on the up.
Three years later and he’s got the 3rd best strike rate in the country, behind Charlie Appleby and Sir Mark Prescott.
Yet our horses are excluded from this series 🤷♂️
🗣 "The Sunday Series is a fantastic series."
🗣 "I can't run in the Racing League."
@GrantTuerRacing
enjoyed his 3️⃣1️⃣st winner of the season at
@MusselburghRace
& discusses the state of prize money & the Racing League in this fascinating interview
@_tomstanley_
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Valiant Force walk biomechanics as a yearling.
Valiant Force
Malibu Moon x Vigui's Heart
Biomechanic profile from Keeneland Book 2 in September 2022. 98.33% Elite.
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First draft is finally finished!
30,228 words of Cheltenham stats.
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Tattersalls Horses in Training Sale
Not really my scene anymore, but a thread with some musings on potential angles in...
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🔨
224.95 BFSP winner tipped in the Friday selections 🔥🔥🔥
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Emaraty Hero winning today takes our syndicate NG Racing to a 100% Winners to Runners record.
Something we’re very proud of !
🥇 Arabic Culture
🥇 Swinging Eddie
🥇 Forus
🥇 Emaraty Hero
Huge thanks to
@GrantTuerRacing
@cathblake7
@annatuer
@samjock22
and the team 🙌
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Looking at sire progeny that have reported issues with wind and require wind surgery.
Across the Flat & AW in the UK and Ireland here are the records of runners requiring wind surgery and the ratio per sire. Sires only with >50 runners.
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Spot on. How to grow Horse Racing:
1. Narratives - stories of the jockeys, the trainers, the breeders and the owners. Where they come from and what drives them
2. History - history of the races and the lineage of pedigrees
3. Analytics - more data to encourage fan engagement
Must read this thread. Formula 1 had a shrinking viewership consisting of an aging fan base. Sound familiar horse people? A very smart team got rid of the leadership and focused on the younger demographic (Netflix series biggest driver), realizing that is where the growth was 🤔
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Here's Light Infantry (Fast Company x Lights on Me), favourite for the $10m Golden Eagle on Saturday, in his Breeze Up run at Goffs back in 2021.
Well purchased by Blandford Bloodstock for £82,000 at the Goffs 2021 Breeze Up Sale
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Swinging Eddie received 5lbs from the handicapper this morning.
As a protest, we will not be running him in the Grand National at Aintree in 12 days time.
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Thanks to
@jackcantillon
for having me on "The Art of the Mating" tonight.
Here's the link if you missed it and would like to watch
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Late night tonight doing biomechanics and gait analysis on lots from the upcoming Goffs Premier Yearling sale.
This is Lot 48, a Wootton Bassett colt, out of blacktype Invincible Spirit mare, Marsh Hawk - offered by Highclere Stud. She herself was 4th in the Fillies Mile and is
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📝 Does the ability of the Dam correlate with the ability of her offspring? 📝
New blog exploring the relationship between the Official Rating achieved by mares during their racing career and the subsequent official ratings achieved by offspring.
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32.51% of horses that run in Group races were the first foal from the Dam.
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⭐️ New Purchase ⭐️
Delighted to secure Lot 155 at the Tatts Craven Breeze Up sale. An Oasis Dream colt out of a blacktype mare, Gambissara. She was 2nd in the Italian Oaks.
25%, 10%, 5%, 2.5% shares available now
Link:
✉️ Please message if interested
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Excited for the Guineas tomorrow and whether City Of Troy can claim his crown as the new king 👑
A Justify Sire Stat that might be of interest however:
Justify 2yos are 19 Stakes Winners from 173 runners; 10.98%
Justify 3yos are 11 stakes winners from 240 runners; 4.58%
He’s
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racing² is a startup company that I launched last year with the purpose of providing data and analytics to people who want to find high quality horses.
We are trying to provide something different across horse racing and I hope that one day we'll get there
Breeze Up Biomechanics : The Breeze
How we use biomechanics and video analytics to predict ability of breeze up horses
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First Season Sires
Short thread looking at yearling sales returns from prominent FSS so far. (Data: Weatherbys)
Inns of Court
Stud Fee : €5,000 (£4,339)
Yearling Avg : £31,771
Stud to Sale Ratio : 7.32
Keep : £15k (18 months)
ROI: 164%
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Just purchased Lot 841 Belardo x Aisling Ghear for €10,000 at Goffs Sportsman sale.
Details below & please DM if interested
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Can the biomechanics of a Horses walk predict their ability?
New piece evaluating the usefulness of plotting trajectories of horse walks pre-sales and how they can inform assessments of potential ability.
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Wishing you all the best for Christmas.
May all your horses, be fast horses 🚀
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📊Jockey Radars📊
Going to share something here that I've been working on, a live dashboard that allows you to assess jockey riding styles by early position.
Please take a look, happy to take feedback. If you find some interesting radars please share ⬇️
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Getting started on the Biomechanic analysis for the Arqana August Yearling Sale.
This is Lot 18 Blue Point x Kodyanna. Consigned by Haras De La Perelle.
Kodyanna was an 100 rated 2yo. A winner of a nursery handicap at York in & 2nd in the Prix De Cabourg. He's her first foal
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Bated Breath x No Faith Filly
Delighted to have purchased this beautiful filly
@InfoArqana
yesterday.
Consigned by an excellent French farm in Haras D'Etreham she had excellent scores on biomechanics, with a super physical.
Shares available at 10%, 5%, 2.5%. DM for details.
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Expected Stud Fees 2024
Our analysis of the announced stud fees of sires standing in the UK, Ireland and France for 2024.
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Arqana Breeze Up
Day of analysing breezes ahead, after running all horses through our motion tracking software overnight.
Featured is Lot 12 Saxon Warrior x Posh Claret, offered by Brown Island Stables. One of the quickest horses in the sale.
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An Analytical Model for Australian Yearling Sales
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Looking for jockeys that would be interested in using data to gain an edge in races.
Particularly focused around positional and tactical data.
Goal is to win the jockeys championship within 2 years by using a data-driven approach.
DM if interested.
Retweets appreciated
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4.32% of yearlings sold through the sales ring end up rated 100+ (6% overall when you include homebreds)
Tested across 5647 horses.
Summary: buying elite horses is really difficult
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Expert Eye filly has now sold out.
Thanks very much for the support and for the positive feedback - it really is appreciated !
See you on track next year !
Delighted to have purchased Lot 105 Expert Eye x Love And Cherish
@GoffsUK
Premier Yearling Sale today.
This filly received a projected OR of 105 and 100 from our 2 biomechanic models and will go into training with Grant Tuer.
Shares available at 10%, 5% and 2.5%. DM for info
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2022 Royal Ascot Winners by Purchase Price
Baeed (Homebred)
Bradsell (Yearling: 12,000gns to Highflyer/ H Dunlop, Breeze: £47,000 to Blandford Bloodstock)
Nature Strip (Yearling: Not Sold @ $90,000)
Coroebus (Homebred)
🧵
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Wins 👍
4:30 Yarmouth Wiretap
2pt Win @ 10/1
Gelding Op
by Charm Spirit
2nd run after a gelding op
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Breeze Ups - Top Lots on Walk Biomechanics
I promised to share a consolidated version of the top rated lots on walk biomechanics from the Breeze Up sales. Here's the Top 20.
Runs 36
Wins 9
SR 25%
Wnrs 7
Rnrs 13
WTRR 53.8%
Avg RPR 73.16
Top RPR 95
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Wins 👍
(Rule 4 in there tho)
6:50 Nottingham Jackamundo
2pt Win @ 28/1
Gelding Op
by Fast Company
Has his third and final run for us tracking him after a gelding op.
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Wins 👍
7:40 Curragh Guaranteed
2pt Win @ 14/1
Trainer Target
Jim Bolger has a decent record in this race, he’s 3/9 4places +2.75pts. Winning it in 2017 with Glamorous Approach, Trading Leather (2013), Carraiglawn (2010)
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Wins 👍
6:00 Kilbeggan Miami Beach
2pt Win @ 12/1 (365 & BV)
Headgear
by Invincible Spirit
Progeny fitted with first time tongue tie are 27/130 20.77% +43.2pts.
Joseph is 1/3 putting a tongue tie on Invincible Spirit progeny +2.5pts. Winner was National Wealth on the flat in 2018.
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Performance of Trainers with 2yos since 2012
Who you sending your juveniles to?
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First Season Sires 2023
A view on Champion FSS chances from this years' First Season Sire crop.
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Delighted to secure Lot 751 Advertise x Samuna at
@Goffs1866
today.
✅ By 3x G1 winner Advertise
✅ Blacktype mare, Samuna
✅ Strong biomechanic score. We went to €35,000 for him
To be trained by
@ahaynesracing
in Newmarket.
2.5, 5, 10% shares available. DM for info ✉️
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Finally managed to integrate Consigner information into my database.
Now we can run things like Consigner % Rivals Beaten across runners.
Helpful to see which stud farms and breeding operations are good to buy from.
Here's the Top 20 performers (>100 runs)
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Wins 👍
6:05 Ffos Las Buck Bravo
2pt Win @ 25/1
Headgear
by Mahler
Gets first time blinkers. Mahler progeny are 5/13 38.46% +20.25pts when getting them
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Finding Value at the Horses in Training Sales
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Wind Ops
Here's that full data on UK Flat & AW sire progeny with Wind Ops since 2018.
Noticeable how clean winded the Dubawi line seems to be. Himself with runners requiring wind surgery 11 horses from 417 runners.
Flagship sons, Night of Thunder & New Bay also with low ratios
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Spent the last few hours watching some YouTube videos on Yearling conformation.
What a load of absolute bollocks.
“You need a kind eye”
“You need a wide eye”
“You need a good width between the eyes”
“You need a tall ear”
“A big nostril so the air can get in”
Alchemy 🧙♂️
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Almost Halloween. That means it's time for horse skeletons...
(This is a 110 rated Frankel)
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Biomechanic analysis completed for the Tatts Craven Breeze Up sale.
This is Lot 2 Mehmas x Obama Rule, offered by Oak Tree Farm. Lovely horse !
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🐎 Virtual Grand National 🐎
I simulated the Grand National 1000 times using my own ratings and a Monte Carlo simulator in Excel. Here are the results:
🥇 Magic of Light won 133/1000 races
🥈 Vintage Clouds 104/1000
🥉 Ballyoptic 80/1000 races
Tiger Roll finished 12th.
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Unexposed Pedigrees
Why we believe that buyers should focus on buying from the first five foals of a mare.
First and second foals return as winners 51% of the time, down to 36.49% by the 7th or 8th foal.
First, second and third foals return a stakes winner 3.06% of the time,
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Equine Geometry
First outcomes from our new model which evaluates angular data from horses when they're standing in a stance position.
We evaluated angular data from key joints for yearlings offered in Australia and New Zealand between 2019 - 2022.
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Expected Stud Fees
New blog post looking at recently published Northern Hemisphere Stud Fees for 2023.
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Delighted to contribute this piece to
@TDNAusNZ
analysing the Bloodstock Strategy and spend of Yulong Investments since 2015.
It took a couple of weeks to pull together so any reads or retweets are appreciated !
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Managed a breakthrough on my
@DeepLabCut
model for tracking horse pose and walks.
Based on work from
@Perf_Genetics
and
@TrackingPlumes
Trained a resnet_50 imagenet model based on Tensorflow for 20,000 iterations
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🐎 The Lincoln 🐎
Today i will run a virtual simulation of The Lincoln.
12:00 Declarations will be announced
15:00 Draw will be published
16:00 Betting Market will be shared
16:30 Race
All will be run via a Monte Carlo simulation.
Please like or retweet to join.
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This week i will be punting all Willie Mullins runners at Galway and all Mark Johnston runners at Goodwood.
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2 year olds 🤷♂️
If you backed every horse in a 2yo Group race priced above 24.0 at BFSP you’d be +808.57pts since 2013...
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Just ran a simulation of Altior vs Cyrname across 1000 races.
Based on my performance ratings on their last 10 runs.
Results:
Altior won 916/1000 races.
Cyrname won 84/1000 races.
Odds:
Altior 1.09
Cyrname 11.90
📈
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Wins 👍
5:00 Epsom Multamis
2pt Win @ 14/1
by Charm Spirit
Has second run after a gelding op.
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So it begins...
Getting started on the biomechanic evaluations for the Magic Millions Gold Coast sale.
This is Lot 23, an I Am Invincible filly out of blacktype dam Karavali. She's her second foal and is offered by Amarina Farm
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Wins 👍
Nice way to snap a mini losing streak
7:25 Bath Uther Pendragon
2pt Win @ 10/1
Trip Move
by Dragon Pulse
Tries 1m2f for the first time on a flat galloping track
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Roulston Scar wins 👍
7:05 Pontefract
Princes Des Sables 10/1
Roulston Scar 9/2
Both 2pt Win
Trainer Target
This 6f handicap at Pontefract is a target for Kevin Ryan. He’s 2/5 40% +22pts when sending runners here, winning it in 2016 with Dutch Mist and 2011 with Louis the Pious.
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racing² 1 year review
Things I've learned in the first year trying to build a data & analytics business in Horse Racing.
Successes, mistakes, learnings and outlook.
For those people who were part of the journey already. Thanks very much for your support.
Thread 🧵
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Tough week trying to buy at Tattersalls this week.
1️⃣2️⃣5️⃣3️⃣ lots analysed
7️⃣ Vetted
3️⃣ Underbidder on 3
0️⃣ Purchased
Hoping for more luck at Arqana next week 🇫🇷
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🏇Cheltenham Festival Summary 🏇
Day Four
Total Staked = 176
Total Returned = 195.31
Total P&L= +19.31
ROI= +10.97%
Overall
Total Staked = 568
Total Returned = 719.33
Total P&L= +151.33
ROI= +26.64%
2020 Profit = +338pts
2021 Profit = +151.33pts
Back into retirement i go
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“Got any tips for Cheltenham tomorrow?”
“Yeh here’s a list of 63 Irish horses that I’m backing....”
🇮🇪
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Very happy to share we were able to support buyers with the purchase of 16 yearlings at the sales
1️⃣ Shalaa
2️⃣ New Bay
2️⃣ Caravaggio
2️⃣ Mehmas
2️⃣ No Nay Never
1️⃣ Sea The Stars
1️⃣ Starspangledbanner
1️⃣ Le Harve
1️⃣ Gleneagles
1️⃣ Australia
1️⃣ Footstepsinthesand
1️⃣ Kingman
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How the biomechanics of your horse relates to racing performance ✍️
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