Todd Harrison
@ToddHarrisonDC
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Senior Fellow, @AEI . Former @CSIS , @CSISAerospace , @CSBAdc .
Washington DC
Joined May 2012
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I'm excited to release a report this morning titled "Building an Enduring Advantage in the Third Space Age." Key takeaway: the US has a significant lead in space, but to turn this temporary lead into an enduring advantage it needs to move quickly. 🧵
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I watched this portion of
@realDonaldTrump
's speech at the Naval Academy today, and can't let it go. In just 2 minutes he makes at least 6 factual errors. Watch the clip and then read the rest of this thread:
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#6
: This year's military pay raise is not the first in ten years. There were pay raises in each of the past ten years, & some were higher than this year's raise.
FY09: 3.9%
FY10: 3.4%
FY11: 1.4%
FY12: 1.6%
FY13: 1.7%
FY14: 1.0%
FY15: 1.0%
FY16: 1.3%
FY17: 2.1%
FY18: 2.4%
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#1
: The $700B defense budget for FY18 is not the largest ever. It was larger under the Obama administration: $710B in FY11 and $714B in FY10. And that's without adjusting for inflation!
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#4
: Getting to 355 ships is not an increase of "a couple of hundred" ships. Here's the math: 355 - 283 = 72
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#2
: The number of ships in the Navy today is not the smallest since the end of WWI. We have 283 ships today, and in 2007 (Bush administration) we had 279.
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#3
: The Navy will not get to 355 ships "very soon." The Navy's 30-year plan says it will not get to that level until after 2050, but it could possibly be accelerated to the 2030s. Either way, it's not very soon.
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#5
: The 355-ship fleet has not yet been "approved." The ships have not all been authorized yet, and Congress appropriates the money one year at a time.
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Actually, nuke arsenal has shrunk over the past 7 months to meet New START limits. ICBM force down to 400, lowest level since early 1960s.
My first order as President was to renovate and modernize our nuclear arsenal. It is now far stronger and more powerful than ever before....
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This is not correct. The TOTAL military budget over the past three years (FY17-19) was $2.0 trillion. The part of the budget spent on procurement of equipment was $0.42 trillion over that time. If you include R&D, it comes to $0.68 trillion.
The United States just spent Two Trillion Dollars on Military Equipment. We are the biggest and by far the BEST in the World! If Iran attacks an American Base, or any American, we will be sending some of that brand new beautiful equipment their way...and without hesitation!
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The 1991 Gulf War was the first time space played a major role in a conflict. If Russia invades Ukraine, this may be the first time counterspace weapons play a major role in a conflict. (1/4)
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The threat Russia poses in space should not be underestimated. Those in Congress that have doubts about our continued support for Ukraine should pay close attention. Russia is a direct threat to the United States in space as well as on Earth...(1 of 4)
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Happy birthday to the U.S. Space Force! December 20, 2019
Farewell to Air Force Space Command
@AFSpace
, the oldest Air Force Major Command. You served the nation well, and now it's time to be your own service.
And welcome back U.S. Space Command
@US_SpaceCom
, we missed you.
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I see Twitter (or whatever this place is called now) is still buzzing about the intel on a Russian space threat, and people seem to be conflating or glossing over the differences and forgetting what is new versus old. Let's think through this for a minute...
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This is a big, underreported story that's going to make a lot of people in DoD uncomfortable via
@tvandenbrook
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Unfortunately, we have to reschedule today's event for another day. The NASA Administrator is sick and cannot speak. Please let anyone planning to attend know that today's event is cancelled. And best wishes to
@JimBridenstine
for a speedy recovery.
Don't miss our event next week with
@NASA
Administrator
@JimBridenstine
to discuss NASA's Moon-to-Mars plans and the role of international and commercial partners. Register to attend here:
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The United States better be ready to defend our space assets and respond to Russian aggression in space swiftly and proportionately. The risk is growing, and the stakes for the US, NATO, and the space environment we all depend on are high. (4/4)
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Don't miss our event next week with
@NASA
Administrator
@JimBridenstine
to discuss NASA's Moon-to-Mars plans and the role of international and commercial partners. Register to attend here:
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We explored scenarios like this (not specific to Russia and Ukraine) in this report, and detailed the range of defenses and countermeasures that are possible. (3/4)
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Russia saying it wants to ban anti-satellite weapons and that it won't be the first to weaponize space is like me saying Twitter should be banned and that I won't be the first to use Twitter...in a tweet.
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To be clear, it's $4B for two planes that operate as a flying command post for POTUS in a national emergency, have EMP protection, etc.
Boeing is building a brand new 747 Air Force One for future presidents, but costs are out of control, more than $4 billion. Cancel order!
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Just released: unclassified summary of 2022 national defense strategy in mathematical notation
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Let's start a new defense acquisition program and call it the Combined Joint All-Domain Cross-Functional Digital Transformation Emerging Technology Initiative. I'm not sure what it is or what it is supposed to do, but with all those buzzwords it's sure to get support.
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In your face,
@SeamusDaniels
! 🤣
One of the best Saturn Vs we’ve seen. University chair. Rocket Art. Should probably recuse as one of your Room Raters took Capitol Building photo on right but we’re going with 10/10 anyway.
@ToddHarrisonDC
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It is not hard to imagine a range of scenarios in which Russia uses counterspace weapons (kinetic and/or non-kinetic) to disrupt and degrade US and allied space-based ISR support to Ukrainian forces. (2/4)
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SecDef Mattis says at
#RNDF
that defense budget at historically low level as % of GDP and overall federal budget. Does not mention how the budget looks in inflation-adjusted dollars (see below). The problem for defense is not the size of the budget, it's how the budget is spent.
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Has anyone looked at the cost-exchange ratio of using an F-22 and AIM-9X to shoot down balloons? Just sayin'...
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If this reporting is true that
@US_SpaceCom
HQ is going to move to Huntsville, the decision reeks of being politically motivated (taking jobs from a state that voted for Biden and moving them to a state that voted for Trump). (1/3)
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Saw this at a toy store...I can't make this stuff up.
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SpaceX's Starlink constellation is now up to 297 operational satellites. One more launch and it will have more operational satellites than China.
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Because popping off a nuke in space creates a real mess that affects satellites indiscriminately. We know this because the US detonated a 1.4 megaton nuke at 400km altitude in 1962. It charged up the Van Allen radiation belts and destroyed ~1/3 of the satellites in LEO.
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With all the news about the F-35, here are some numbers to consider. Congress has appropriated more planes than DoD requested each year since 2015.
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Most of the military budget since FY17 has gone to military personnel ($0.46 trillion) and operation & maintenance ($0.81 trillion), not equipment.
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Wow, I am pleasantly surprised! Maybe the new admin is listening to people in the space community.
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Here's an idea for a movie:
The protagonist is a highly respected and competent civilian who has been nominated by a new administration to a senior position in DoD. Her senate confirmation hearing is scheduled for Feb 2, Ground Hog Day...
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Fair warning to space geeks, your productivity at work is about to go down!
@ThomasGzRoberts
just posted a cool interactive graphic on all the spaceports of the world. You can advance the timeline (1957-2017) and click on spaceports to see detailed stats.
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I fear that what we are seeing is an emboldened Russia in space. Congressional dithering on Ukraine funding shows weakness and creates a potential opening for Russia to exploit. Weakness invites aggression. (4 of 4)
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I just had a test call with
@NASA
Administrator
@JimBridenstine
for our event tomorrow at 11am ET. I don't want to give away what he plans to talk about, but it can be summed up in one word: DIME
Curious? Register for the event here:
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Congratulations to
@andrewphunter
on being nominated to be the Air Force's acquisition chief! He is without a doubt the best pick for the job, hands down. But now who am I supposed to complain to about Air Force acquisition issues?!?
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I made a quick & dirty model in STK of the North Korean missile launch. The estimated trajectory of the test is shown in red... 1/3
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I spotted this awesome-looking cake in the office kitchen this morning. So where does one get a cake mold in the shape of the Pentagon? Save corridors 8-9 for me!
@csis_isp
@Missile_Defense
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Keeping nukes on Earth atop ICBMs is less expensive, more flexible to operate, easier to upgrade and maintain, etc. But what if your intent is to use the nuke in space (e.g., an EMP blast)? Still better to base it on the ground.
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Here's how Trump's FY18 defense budget compares to other budget proposals and the budget caps
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It is far better to send weapons to Ukraine so they can fight Russia and degrade its military (without risking any American lives) than to allow Russia to succeed and feel emboldened. (3 of 4)
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This is a great example of why the Oxford comma is needed. Is the Air Force general also a former publicist, and did Prince sign this letter from the grave? 😂
Newt Gingrich, a three-star Air Force general and former publicist for Michael Jackson and Prince want to create a $2 billion sweepstakes to see who can establish and run the first lunar base
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But until we know more, and knowing Russia's history of ASAT weapon development and testing, it is certainly something to be concerned about. Our economy and military are heavily dependent on space, and Russia knows that.
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Is this a first? Live camera view of the outside of a spacecraft during reentry. Wow.
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They buried the lede: Air Force gives officer $72,000 / yr for the rest of his life after he sexually harassed and assaulted a subordinate
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An that included the UK's first satellite, Ariel 1. Whoops! But again, you don't need to place a nuke in orbit to do this--it's easier to just launch it when you are actually ready to use it, like we did in 1962.
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Some are speculating that it could be a nuclear weapon in space--a clear violation of the Outer Space Treaty. But there is a reason why the US and USSR agreed to that restriction back in 1967--there's no need to place nukes in orbit.
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The rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated...but it is true that I will be departing. So excited to be joining Meta Aerospace, so sad to be leaving my work family at CSIS.
Lots of news today, but our news is bittersweet! Founding director
@ToddHarrisonDC
is leaving
@CSIS
on Friday to join Meta Aerospace. We're getting all our ducks in a line to post an application for his position. We'll tweet here when it is up!
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Another thing I see a lot of speculation about is that perhaps it is some sort of nuclear reactor in space. That is not without precedent either--NASA has used nuclear power for deep space probes in the past.
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This could be big news. First question is at what altitude did the collision/test/event occur? That will give us a general idea of what satellites are at risk and how much long-lasting debris we are likely to see from this. (1 of 4)
Re: reports of a Russian ASAT test, USSPACECOM says it "is aware of a debris-generating event in outer space" and is "working to characterize the debris field and will continue to ensure all space-faring nations have the information necessary to maneuver satellites if impacted."
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Twas the night before budget day and all through the Beltway, not a creature was stirring not even the swamp dwellers. Budget justification documents were PDF'ed with care, in the hope that full appropriations soon would be there.
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A nuclear power source could be used for a lot of things, like powering a radio frequency jamming payload to block signals or a high-powered microwave payload that could potentially fry the circuits on a satellite.
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I'm excited to be joining this fantastic team and get back into the think tank world. When
@MEaglen
and I have collaborated in the past, it's usually been to recommend killing or closing something. What will go after next?!?
Happy to welcome defense budget expert, former US Air Force reservist, fellow coauthor & friend, and go-to analyst
@ToddHarrisonDC
to the
@AEI
and
@AEIfdp
team 📊🎉
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The Space Force gets a boost overall, but not as much as you might think at first. I count *at least* $0.69B that is transfers from other parts of the budget. Factoring that out, it still gets a 9% nominal increase.
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Russia has a full suite of counterspace weapons at its disposal: missiles that can strike satellites directly in space, satellites that can attack other satellites, and electronic and cyber forms of attack that may be invisible to the public. (2 of 4)
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Randomly woke up early this morning, so I got a cup of tea and starting looking at budget data. Did you know that starting in FY22 we will spend more on veterans' benefits and services each year than we do on total defense acquisitions?
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By the numbers: Obama defense budget for FY18 was $584B, Trump is $603B, McCain proposed $640B, defense budget cap is $549B
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In-space nuclear detonations have also been banned by treaty since 1963, not that it would stop Russia from doing it. But why did the US and USSR agree to this ban so long ago and stick to it for all these years?
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Of course, all of the speculation could be completely wrong and it could be some other type of counterspace weapon. Russia has tested crazy things, like firing a machine gun in space. And the intel itself could be wrong or based on erroneous assumptions. We've seen that before.
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Here's a chart from a report we'll be publishing in a few weeks showing size of the US ICBM force over time
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This made my day, seeing a group of girls from a local elementary school swarm the stage after our event to meet an astronaut. Thanks to
@Astro_Jeanette
and
@Smartwomen
for just a great event!
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Replacement cost of the 59 Tomahawks used last night is ~$89M. 2017 is supposed to be the last year of production for the missile.
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Eventually Trump is going to go to war with the Navy over the steam catapult issue. We've seen a pattern of behavior when it comes to his deeply held (and often misinformed) beliefs about other defense and foreign policy issues, and I don't think this will be any different.
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My thoughts on the death spiral the Air Force is in:
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Tonight at 8:56pm ET there is a chance these two objects collide in low Earth orbit. One is an old Soviet-era communications/navigation satellite launched in 1989. The other is the upper stage from a Chinese launch in 2009. Both are large with RCS of 2.2 & 8.6m^2 (respectively).
1/ This event continues to be very high risk and will likely stay this way through the time of closest approach. Our system generates new conjunction reports 6-8x per day on this event with new observation data each time.
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Both of these applications would make a lot of sense from space. A high-powered microwave attack works better the closer you are to the satellite you are attacking, and in space you can attack the side of a satellite that is not facing Earth where it could be more vulnerable.
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This will be a colossal waste of money. I hope it is one of the first things the new Pentagon leadership will reexamine once they are in place. (3/3)
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The advantage is that a nuclear power source gives you power all the time, instead of being dependent on solar arrays pointing at the sun and charging batteries.
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Interesting CNN poll that asked about increasing the defense budget, here is the question and detailed results
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It is a sad day because I will miss you all so much! I've been so blessed with such a great team over the years at CSIS, including
@ThomasGzRoberts
and our long list of interns as well! An exchange with my kids at dinner last night I think captures our team culture quite well...
It’s
@ToddHarrisonDC
’s last day
@csis_isp
and the dreary rainy weather is reflecting our mood! On top of being the best analyst around town, he is also the best boss!
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Jamming signals from space could make sense in two ways. If you are jamming down toward Earth you can cover a larger area and if you are next to a satellite that is broadcasting, all of those antennas on the ground will be pointed at you as well.
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Here's the real defense budget news today. This is a two-year OCO gimmick (FY20-21) and after that they plan to roll back to the base budget. And part of it in FY20 is for the Wall. (That's capitalized, right?)
@CSISDefense360
@csis_isp
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You could also jam the uplink to satellites in higher orbits or the crosslinks between satellites. Being in space gives you better positioning and makes your jamming signal stronger against targets in space.
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I was doing some research yesterday and ran across some old budget and force structure data. Like really old. Going back to the 1790s. So I couldn't help but make some charts...
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Check out the cover of our latest
@CSISAerospace
report, Defense Against the Dark Arts in Space: Protecting Space Systems from Counterspace Weapons (to be released later this week).
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Some thoughts on
@realDonaldTrump
's Space Force comments today.
1) It's at least the third time he has said something like this publicly, so it's not completely out of the blue (no pun intended, Air Force).
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In all seriousness, best of luck to
@kath_hicks
in her confirmation hearing tomorrow morning. Not that she needs luck--she has skills beyond measure.
I'm just hoping she doesn't get stuck in a time loop. Would the rest of us even know if she did?
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Just to lay out some facts that appear to be in dispute given the DoD presser right now. The total enacted DoD budget for FY22 is $756.6B including Ukraine funding and other emergency supplemental funding. So the FY23 request ($773.0B) is a 2.2% nominal increase...
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Am I the only one who keeps hearing various sanctions being rolled out and thinks "wait, we weren't already sanctioning that?"
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We've been getting a lot of questions about the Russian ASAT test and whether they have done anything like this in the past. The answer is yes, and checkout our
@CSISAerospace
counterspace timeline to see other examples of tests like this.
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We're finalizing our Space Threat Assessment 2020 report before it goes to print, and we're up to 448 footnotes. The body of the report is only 55 pages, so the footnote density is pretty much off the charts.
@_MakenaYoung
@krjohnson626
@tylerway96
@ThomasGzRoberts
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The total number of operational satellites in LEO was ~1,500 in 2019. That will probably double by the end of this year.
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If you find yourself scheduling a meeting for the sole purpose of planning for another meeting...just stop and reflect on the choices that led you to this point in life and seek help. You can put a stop to endless meetings. And above all, DO NOT INVITE ME.
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I thought the same thing when I read the intel assessment--it conflates space capabilities in general with space capabilities that are potential threats. The Chinese space station is a positive development--it gives them a good reason not to trash LEO with a bunch of space junk.
Didn't know that a space station was a sign of nefarious intent for space. Who's going to break it to the IC about Russia's role in the ISS?
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Today is a record breaking day in the budget world. The Biden admin is now officially the latest ever in submitting its annual budget request to Congress. It has broken the previous record set four years ago by the Trump admin, which was May 23rd. Budget now expected on May 28th.
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I've got a new analyst crunching some numbers today. He doesn't seem very efficient, though. I think I may need to check his work carefully...
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Trump's proposed defense budget is hardly one of the largest increases, was higher in FY09, FY08, FY03, FY02...
#Jointsession
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I don't see how relocating the headquarters, building new facilities, and moving all of these people improves our national security or our space capabilities. (2/3)
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I hear DoD is funding a new initiative in FY22 called the Combined Intelligence Cross-domain Area Denial Architecture. It uses a cyber swarming approach that is supposed to overwhelm adversaries by exponentially expanding the target space and generating a lot of noise.
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As you step back from your desk/kitchen table/bathroom countertop for the holiday break/solitary confinement/wild kid rodeo, take a moment to reflect on all the Bad Ideas in National Security that 2020 has brought us... (Massive thread alert! Retweet now!)
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Mattis says space is now a contested domain. Someone needs to update those talking points! Space has been contested since the first ASAT test in 1959.
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2) The president can't just create a new military service on his own. It requires congressional authorization.
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This incident and the President's thinking about how to respond raise a lot of good issues we will increasingly encounter as we rely more on remotely operated systems in the air, sea, land, and space domains. What is a proportionate response to an attack on an unmanned system?
Seeing a lot of people either praise Trump for this decision or question why the president wasn't briefed on the potential loss of life before this operation was started.
IMO, both are valid. Trump did right but holy moly how did it get to this point?
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I step away from Twitter for a few hours and this is what happens...
Ok, if Oprah is gonna be president, we demand
@ToddHarrisonDC
be her VP or something. If we must have celebrity presidents, let's arm them with wonks.
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