Tobias Francis
@TobiasFrancis
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Founder/CEO @investwithatlas . Next-Gen Wealth + Asset Management. Investing in public + private markets. Views my own. Tweets ≠ advice.
Santa Monica, CA
Joined June 2011
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@parkerconrad
if you’re going to call someone out, call them out. Otherwise what’s the point of the tweet?
Not coming at you, but if the goal is to protect unsuspecting founders from getting into a bad situation, spell it out in no uncertain terms.
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$SBUX is a disaster. Here is why and what the new CEO should do to fix it....
The bad:
-The core product, their coffee, is objectively terrible. When compared to other high-end commercial brands like
@alfredcoffee
,
@bluebottleroast
,
@LaColombeCoffee
, and
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@Hamptonism
Look at the open interest and size of contracts offered on the Bloomberg screen. ZERO chance you can collar this Becuase there isn’t even close to the liquidity needed to buy that many contracts. You could try doing it OTC but it’s going to be miles wide and super expensive.
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@Alevy1511
They leaked the deal and then walked away to set the floor in the IPO. If Google was willing to pay $23B, thats an explicit bet that they think the co. Is worth much more than that in the future. Bankers can now comfortably underwrite the IPO at $30B and it will likely trade
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@APompliano
going to tell my kids this was the moment I knew we had to go all-in, get uncomfortably long levered illiquid assets.....and the reason we live in an RV Park.
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@CalvinnChenn
If you can’t build the tech internally, you’re not a tech co. Hiring agencies to build your product is the best way to ensure the company dies. I learned this lesson the hard way.
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@TripleNetInvest
He must’ve read my post from yday…
$SBUX is a disaster. Here is why and what the new CEO should do to fix it....
The bad:
-The core product, their coffee, is objectively terrible. When compared to other high-end commercial brands like
@alfredcoffee
,
@bluebottleroast
,
@LaColombeCoffee
, and
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We’re looking for a rockstar 🎸
#designer
to take the
@investwithatlas
mobile app and website to the next level.
Must have FinTech design experience and visceral hatred for the way legacy financial products are designed.
Twitter fam help me out!
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@JoePompliano
@WSJ
So let me get this straight…
Streaming has been massively unprofitable for everyone involved.
Disney just unwound the JV debacle that is Hulu by buying FOX outright and then overpaying for Comcast’s stake.
ESPN+ subs are declining.
And the answer is…ANOTHER JV STREAMING
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@alexandracooper
is launching her own network called “Unwell”. The network has already signed Alix Earle and Madeline Argy.
@callherdaddy
will remain exclusive to
@Spotify
where Cooper is under contract for $60m.
Amazing that the announcement comes on the same day as the
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Tell me inflation is a problem without telling me inflation is a problem…
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@denk_tweets
I recently became a dad. 10x’d my productivity as a founder. Im also the happiest I’ve ever been. Unexpected but awesome.
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@Trace_Cohen
Any co that is doing $50-$200m in revenue and approaching FCF positive can ABSOLUTELY go public. I would love to help. We need to get rid of this narrative about “IPO Window” there is no such thing. Markets exist to price any asset in real time regardless of market conditions.
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Reign Hayes Heaslip
July 10, 2023
I’m now a Founder and a Father. I’ll be blogging about the journey of running a VC-backed startup while also being a first time dad.
Looking forward to sharing the good, the bad, and the ugly on a topic that doesn’t get discussed enough in
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One of the easiest ways to stand out—respond quickly. Be available. Act with a sense of urgency.
The busiest and most successful people I know text back in seconds.
Speed kills. Momentum is everything.
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@ericbahn
Yes, but the bigger point is that all LLMs are converging to the same quality. So there is no long-term value capture at the LLM level. They will all be great but not differentiated. The only moat (right now) is the capital required to set up the compute and infra to run the
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#LATechWeek
recap…🧵
1. Morale and enthusiasm has improved materially since 22’ but remains relatively low.
The fundraising environment is still awful and there are a lot of zombie companies and zombie VCs in the market.
There is no quick fix, it will take awhile for these
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@ZainanZhou
@WSJ
@SVB_Financial
All this shows you is that interest rates went up and bonds went down. Great. The “losses” are NOT in assets that are worthless. It’s a mark-to-market loss in tier 1 assets. So if held to maturity the losses disappear because they redeem at par.
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@KimKardashian
is executing at the highest level.
Earlier this year
@skims
raised $270m at $4B valuation in what was described as a “Pre-IPO” round. The company is on pace to do $750m in revs and is profitable. Y/Y growth is >50%.
In the last week,
@skims
has rolled out a
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@nateobrienn
Bloomberg IB is their instant message feature. It honestly is the entire value prop. No1 uses 90% of the data features. IB is the ubiquitous mode of communication both internally and externally. So, if you're not on IB, you're not in the industry. It's that simple.
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The entire
#SaaS
industry is under attack. I have been writing about this for a year. AI tools have enabled an entire generation of startups to build clone products of massive companies with skeleton teams and offer them for 10% of the cost. Learn the term 80/90! It explains the
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Have kids.
The timing will never be perfect but you’ll also never be happier.
Being a dad is the best job I’ve ever had.
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I'm incredibly proud of our research and investment management practice at
@investwithatlas
. This team is led by
@shivalbajpay
, who produces the best sector and single-stock analysis I have seen in my 15-year career. All our research is available to Atlas clients free of charge.
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I couldn’t be more excited to officially announce ‘s partnership with Lightspeed Venture Partners,
@mercebent
and Connor Love.
We’re very fortunate to be supported by some of the largest and most influential VCs in the world, but…
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@hridonculous
VCs invest in teams and products.
HFs invest in companies.
PE invests in businesses.
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This contract is a NPV nightmare of epic proportions.
NPV calc= $2m/yr (y1-y10) + 68m/yr (y11-y20) discounted back at 3% = $448,674,903.28
Delta to $700M sticker = $251,325,097
NPV of 10-year $700m contract = $597,114,198.57
Delta to NPV of actual contract = (597,111,198 -
Shohei Ohtani's $700 million deal is one of the most unique contracts in sports history.
He'll earn $2 million annually over the next ten years and then $680 million in payments starting at age 40.
But the details indicate it goes much deeper than Ohtani just being a good
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Took me a few years, but I have my sleep dialed in. My current sleep stack:
Mattress:
@eightsleep
Pillow:
@coopsleepgoods
Sheets:
@SHEEX
Note: for perfect sleep, you need to cut all alcohol. Sleep scores decrease 10-15% per glass of wine or cocktail.
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Excited to be attending
@FutureProofAC
, the world's largest wealth management conference, in Huntington Beach, CA, on Sep 10-13th.
Looking forward to meeting the people building the future of WM and promoting
@investwithatlas
!
If you're attending, drop me a note to meet for
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I spent last week meeting with VCs in Silicon Valley. Here are the two biggest takeaways from the trip...
1) VCs are overly indexed toward AI investments. AI is a game-changing technology that will be omnipresent in the lives of nearly every human on the planet in the next 10
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@HelenGuo_
-
@ErewhonMarket
-Private Schools
-Flying Private
-A house designed by
@_SAOTA
-
@dogpound
-
@ScuderiaFerrari
@JamesPerse
shirts
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Bear markets are like Forest Fires. Painful but necessary.
Fire removes low-growing underbrush, cleans the forest floor of debris, opens it up to sunlight, and nourishes the soil. Reducing this competition for nutrients allows established trees to grow stronger and healthier.
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We’re turning
@investwithatlas
research into a video explainer series. Our research is hedge fund grade, but not everyone wants to read written reports or review financial models.
So we’re making 100 videos detailing our investment thesis on each stock in our 5 Thematic
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WeWork has raised a total of $22.2B in funding over 23 rounds. Their latest funding was raised on Jan 3, 2023 from a Post-IPO Debt round.
Today, $WE has a market cap of just $265m and is likely to shut down. Shival and I break it down on this week's
@investwithatlas
Pod.
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Milestone Episode
#30
of the
@investwithatlas
pod! 100k downloads and climbing 📈
Consistency + Quality x Time = Success
Check it out!
IPOs Heating Up, China Cooling Down, Goldman CEO In Trouble Plus Coinbas... via
@YouTube
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When an asset absorbs bad news and the selling supply/pressure that comes with and then rallies to local highs, it almost always means new ATM highs are coming soon. $BTC is set up tremendously well to see new ATM highs into year end.
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1994: "Today Show": "What is the Internet, Anyway?" via
@YouTube
Eerily similar to how older people are discussing Web 3, Blockchain, Crypto, Metaverse, etc.
Buckle up. 🚀🌕
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This week, I attended the
@theallinpod
Summit here in L.A. The event was incredible and had the best group of speakers and attendees of any conference in the world. Elon Musk, Sergei Bryn, Peter, Theil, Megyn Kelly, JD Vance, Mike Ovitz, Travis Kalanick, and many other titans of
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@edgeworth_brian
@JSeyff
@JSeyff
is right. It takes two sides to consummate the trade, so the volume is printed once. When a broker is in the middle you fill one side “principal” which hits the tape. The other side is “risk less principal” which doesn’t hit the tape.
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At
@investwithatlas
, we help clients navigate private markets and Alternative Investments. Here is what I'm seeing on the ground...
1. Acess to Alts is becoming table stakes. That said, access to the stock market is ubiquitous. Anyone can download one of 200 apps and start
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"Alternatives" are now becoming the CORE of client portfolios. The most recent JPM Family Office report shows that the average portfolio consists of a 45% allocation to Alts. That is an astounding statistic.
At
@investwithatlas
, we specialize in helping clients navigate the
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@rexsalisbury
This is really just a test of who can automate the entire process with existing AI tools. Then spend most of the day “grabbing coffee” with hiring decisision makers while other interns stare at your name at the top of the leaderboard.
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Merry Christmas Eve from me and Reign!
First Christmas with my son. Incredibly special. Pure magic.
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@MrFamilyOffice
The opposite. China is imploding, 298% debt-to-gdp and losing 50% of their population in the next 50 years. $USD TINA.
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Wealth and Asset Management are rapidly evolving.
@investwithatlas
+
@UnlimitedFnds
are 2 startups leading a new class of firms building technology and creating innovative business models to disrupt a $55+ Trillion industry.
I'm a massive fan of
@BobEUnlimited
. It was a
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NO 1 wants to invest in consumer-facing companies right now.
Which tells me it's the best time to invest in consumer-facing companies right now.
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Never bet against 🇺🇸
Is Jamie gearing up to enter the race for Pres? 🙏
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YEEEE-HAWW 🤠
We're
#hiring
financial advisors in Austin, Dallas, LA, Miami and Nashville.
If you're looking for an incredible opportunity to join a next-gen wealth management firm that is hell-bent on taking over the world--I'd love to chat.
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#Industry
is back on HBO this week. It is the best show you've never seen and the most accurate portrayal of Sales and Trading of any show or movie ever made about Wall St.
After spending 15 years in this gig, here's my take...
-The sets are impeccable. The trading floor in
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Stock marketing hitting all time highs.
Friday reminder that time in the market is better than timing the market.
Shocking how few people know that SPX was up 25% last year because they were too busy bragging about 5% yield on a treasury account.
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First time founders are so afraid to pivot. Serial founders understand that pivoting is part of the process. We pivoted 2x before finding PMF. The name of the game is build, test, fail, iterate—> Pivot, repeat until either A) find PMF or B) run out of $.
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@E_Bruxxx
@paulg
This is such a good contrarian indicator. Fade the industries with the most YC startups and buy the ones with the least.
We used to monitor this during the summer analyst program. Whatever desk interns wanted to be on the most (CMBS, Interest Rate Vol, Cash Equities) was almost
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New startup idea…
Take all the streaming services and combine them onto 1 interface. A single place with 1500+ channels and one low price.
I’m calling it “cable” and I think this could be huge.
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🚨 E-39 of the
@investwithatlas
Pod, and its a 💎
Thank you for 200K DOWNLOADS!!! We put our heart and soul into bringing you guys the best Pod and Product possible.
Netflix, Tesla Earnings and ESPN's Big Announcement - ATLAS EP. 39 via
@YouTube
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@ericzhu105
Agreed. This is supposed to be the purpose of an incubator, but I haven’t seen one that does it particularly well.
You should redefine SaaS to “Startup as a Service.” Focus on legal, operations, marketing/ops, etc. Let the team stay laser focused on product.
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🚨E-42
@investwithatlas
Pod🚨
WeWork Bankrupt, OpenAI Dev Day and 20VC New Fund - ATLAS EP. 42 via
@YouTube
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We build thematic actively managed portfolios for our clients at
@investwithatlas
.
Appropriately, we call these portfolios “Themes”
Check out the video to find out how we build our Themes…
via
@YouTube
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@Kali_laur3n
@alfredcoffee
@bluebottleroast
@LaColombeCoffee
Best option—sell the Chinese assets/operations.
2nd best option liscense the brand to Chinese operators.
Either way, exit or significantly lower financial exposure in the region.
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@SpecialSitsNews
Not an issue. There is far more demand for $NVDA chips than they can currently
Supply. VCs are subsidizing AI startups massive capex spend to build their products and Enterprise co’s haven’t even started in earnest yet. This ban won’t effect sales in the short-to-medium term.
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The government literally told us aliens are real and no one cared.
But you’re still building a startup in “Stealth” mode. 😏
#comeonman
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Sometimes the best offense is a good defense.
Our Recession Ready theme provides clients with both a shield 🛡️ and sword 🗡️ in their portfolios.
Our Recession Ready Theme is an all-weather portfolio that's comprised of dominant companies in mature industries with strong competitive advantages and even stronger financials.
This means they generate enough cash to weather a storm, buy back shares, pay out dividends and
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🚨E-32 is live!
A Clip from last weeks episode went viral and downloads hit a new ATH.
Thank you!!! Let’s keep pushing.
Grayscale Bitcoin ETF, Instacart and Klaviyo IPOs and Student Debt - ATL... via
@YouTube
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@StockTrickNick
With
@tradingtv
you’re going to make more than enough to tell the man to kick rocks! So you can focus on your passion, trading and creating great content. This isn’t hard, help is on the way brother!
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Did you miss Berkshire Hathaway's Earnings? I almost did because they reported on a Saturday! The results are insane, and the stock is up >$18,000 (not a typo) today and trading at a new all-time high. Here's what you missed:
-Operating Income = $10.04B. That's more than Amazon,
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@agazdecki
Appreciate that brother! One day at a time. One foot in front of the other. Compound progress. Enjoy the journey. Don’t forget to add dark mode—we launched with it.
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@Jason
For big orders (>$100) you tip $10-$20 for doing a nice job on the to-go packaging. Its not a % of the bill though. This is a flat fee tip.
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I’ve been reading
@blackenterprise
since I was a kid. Today
@tradingtv
was featured in it. Anything is possible.
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minutes ago
#PrivateMarkets
are experiencing a rapid transformation. At Atlas, we specialize in helping clients navigate alternative investments in private markets. Here is what we are seeing on the front lines...
-
#FamilyOffices
are experiencing explosive growth. In 2019,
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My first day on Wall St. was as an intern at
@GoldmanSachs
. I was given this piece of paper--Rules for Technology Stock Investing.
It was written by Dan Benton, a GS analyst, back in the 90s. It is incredible that in 2024, these rules are still relevant and valid.
Bookmark it
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@markcecchini
everyone has this dream. Also, forgot to take the final and didn't graduate. recurring nightmare. why!?!
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@APompliano
@lessin
AI is a platform shifting technology. VCs get paid to find and invest in Co’s that have 1000x POTENTIAL outcomes. So there is no way they can sit this trend out.
The issue is that it’s nearly impossible to underwrite who will be the long term AI winners at this stage in the
0
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Confirmed,
@shivalbajpay
is much better on camera than I am. 😂
We designed the Future of Work investment theme to offer targeted exposure to the next-gen innovations that are reshaping the way the world works, including AI, cybersecurity, computing and more.
@shivalbajpay
lays out the investment case for the Future of Work and why Atlas is
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We called this 6-months ago on the
@investwithatlas
pod.
Dan Loeb is as shrewd as they get. A lot of value in the WeWork assets post lease Re-negotiations and shuttering of locations with poor unit economics.
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Unwinds take time. This one will take longer than usual because there are so many variables at play. Right now the market is dealing with
1) USD/JPY carry trade reversal. This will take months to full unwind.
2) Harris surging in U.S. Presidential polls. Everyone set up for
0
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Excited to be speaking at the “Each One, Reach One” Summit next Thursday. I’ll be talking about the creator economy, retail investing environment and Web3. Humbled to be included on such an impressive list of founders, operators, investors and cultural le…
0
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Reign when dad drops that new
@investwithatlas
Pod Episode 🔥🔥🔥
US Debt Downgrade, Tech Earnings and Meme Stocks Return - ATLAS EP. 28 via
@YouTube
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@tradingtv
continuing to get coverage from thought leaders in the space. Love to see it. Thank you very much to
@SamNatbony
!
Mining Vertical Winners from Generational Platforms
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So let me get this right…
Crypto has been around for nearly 15 years and the Gov still can’t figure out how to regulate it.
Now we’re suppose to “pause” all AI projects for 6 months so the Gov can regulate that?
Stop.
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🚨Season 2 of the
@investwithatlas
Pod. Episode 48. LFG!!! 🚨
Bitcoin ETFs, Carta Disaster and Apple Stock Outlook - ATLAS EP. 48 via
@YouTube
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@lawyer4SMBs
FCF and it’s not even close. If a business has healthy FCF, many things are possible. If a business has negative FCF, the most likely possibility is bankruptcy. Even in software, negative FCF is dicey. Means your dependent on VC funding to reach “default alive”—far from ideal.
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@Trace_Cohen
There are 2 seperate things here
1) the ability to go public
2) the willingness to go public
Founders have the 1st but not the 2nd.
Every co is different, but most founders aren’t taking their CO’s public because they’ve been given bad advice about the process and the go
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5
Medical bill pay is completely broken.
We just had a child, so we owe a lot of people money. Luckily, we have it—but paying the hospital, doctor, Anesthesiologist, etc. is nearly impossible.
Paying Medical Bills should be as easy as sending a Venmo.
Three parties to the
1
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Major BULL case developing for $AAPL.
In order for AI apps to work, compute needs to move from the cloud to your local device---to reduce latency.
This gives AAPL the first real supercycle iPhone story in 5+ years, as everyone will want/need to upgrade.
Skyrocketing Mobile
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The momentum continues 📈💪🏽🚀
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Some of these funds have a 4&40 fee structure. So underperforming the SPX by 10% and NDX by 30% must make their investors angry right? Not necessarily…
The job of a HF manager isn’t to provide alpha vs. the market in a year where the market was up huge. The job is to provide
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When an asset absorbs bad news and the selling supply/pressure that comes with and then rallies to local highs, it almost always means new ATM highs are coming soon. $BTC is set up tremendously well to see new ATM highs into year end.
0
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1
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5
Proud to say E-29 of the
@investwithatlas
pod drops tomorrow. That’s 29 straight weeks of the best business, finance and tech content on the internet. With this episode we will hit 100k downloads and we’re just getting started!
To be a top 1% podcaster, you have to upload 21 podcasts.
90% don’t go past 1.
9% don’t go past 20.
1% make it to 21+
So when people say “try harder” it usually just means “don’t give up”.
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At
@investwithatlas
, we offer clients the opportunity to invest in the world's first actively managed sports and entertainment portfolio.
This one is close to home since we work with several Pro Athletes.
Watch the video to find out why we're excited to invest in Sports for
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In today’s world, reading is a superpower.
Research, white papers, publicly available government/military documents and academic dissertations are all free. Yet, 99.9% of people don’t read them.
If you do, you’ll make $ damn near automatic when investing.
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