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Alternate Data on Companies and their Supply Chains
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Very happy to share that Tijori's integration with Zerodha has gone live 🙂
Kite web users can now get a quick overview + key stats about a company within zerodha itself
Let us know if we could add any other stats to improve your research process.
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To put Indian IT Services exports in perspective - at ~$170B it exceeds Saudi Arabia's oil exports in value
All in a matter of 30 years starting from scratch!
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Total debt of Vodafone Idea is greater than than all Adani group companies combined!
Borrowings of
Voda Idea ~ Rs 2.4 Lac Crs
Adani Group ~ Rs 2.2 Lac Crs
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Tata Steel overtakes TCS to become most profitable TATA company
9M Profit in FY22
Tata Steel 31914 Crs
TCS 28940 Crs
Tata Steel just five years ago was posting losses and struggling with debt
Source: LiveMint
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Canara Bank has a bigger loan book than the below banks
Kotak Mahindra
Axis
IndusInd
Bandhan
IDFC First
It's loan book is ~3x Kotak and nearly as big as ICICI Bank
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UPI in just six years is on par with Amex in payment volumes. Next target is mastercard
Annualized payment volumes
Visa $14.5T
Mastercard $8.4T
UPI $1.4T
AMEX $1.4T
Paypal $1.3T
Note - UPI annualized number based on latest month
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Since a lot of people have been asking, we ran a filter for companies with:
ROCE > 30% and Market Share > 30%
Here are the results:
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Deepak Fertilizer - Promoter is buying shares everyday like clockwork
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Companies in Waste Water Management and their market cap
1. Ion Exchange ~6840 Crs
2. VA Tech Wabag ~6000 Crs
3. EMS Ltd ~2500 Crs
4. Jash Eng ~2300 Crs
5. De Nora ~1000 Crs
6. Felix Industries ~500 Crs
India has only 1300 sewage treatment plant as against 20,000-30,000 sewage treatment plants in China.
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Building Materials - Breakdown of home construction cost
Steel ~24.6%
Cement ~16.4%
Sand ~12.3%
Gravel ~7.4%
Tiles ~8%
Electricals ~6.8%
Window + Doors ~6%
Plumbing ~5.5%
Bricks ~4.4%
Paints ~4.1%
Sanitaryware ~4%
Keep in mind when playing real estate
Source:
@Harshitt93
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HDFC Bank just overtook SBI in home loan market share this quarter
Its the first time ever
Market share in Housing Loans Sep ' 23
HDFC Bank ~24%
SBI ~22.5%
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UPI is now as big as PayPal after it crosses $100B monthly payment volumes in Oct'21.
Here are appx monthly payment volumes of card networks
Visa $1124B
Mastercard $634B
UPI $103B
Paypal $103B
Amex $92B
Square $14B
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TIL - Gold kept as security with Muthoot Finance is more than the reserves of many Central Banks
~3X of the gold reserves of Pakistan!
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Taylor Swift concert tour generated profits of ~4800 Crs
This is more than Asian Paints, Dr Reddy, LTI Mindtree, JSW Steel
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Some micro real estate companies have value of land bank > 5X market cap. Prozone has RD Damani and RJ as investors
Prozone Intu - Mcap 470Cr - Land Bank value is 4056Cr
Arvind Smartspaces - 923Cr - Land Bank value 6000Cr
Arihant Super - 723Cr - Land Bank value 3300Cr
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Relaxo Footwear's margins and return on capital are way better then even Nike
Relaxo Footwear
Gross Margin ~60%
OPM ~17%
ROCE ~25%
Nike
Gross Margin ~44%
OPM ~9%
ROCE ~12%
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The Power of Compounding
Apple has returned 51000% since its IPO, which has translated to a CAGR of 'only' 17%.
This CAGR is similar to that of many 'boring' large cap mutual funds.
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Backtesting on promoter buying
If every quarter, you buy companies where promoters bought a stake, regardless of mcap, quality etc
Hold for three years and then blindly sell
Repeat every quarter, then from 2005 to 2021 , your CAGR would have been 23.7% !
Src:Unifi Capital
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Aurobindo has a PE of 16 vs Gland which has PE of 51
Injectable Sales equal for both
Auro ~ 2625Crs with 25% YoY growth
Gland ~ 2633Crs with 28% YoY growth
Net Profit of Auro is ~ 4x that of Gland, sales is ~10x
Might be useful in stress testing your investment thesis!
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Amul makes it the top 20 dairy companies of the world, beating Kraft-Heinz.
To put it's sales into perspective - Amul makes from dairy products 2X of what ITC makes from cigarettes!
GCMMF (Amul) enters the Rabobank's Global Top 20 Dairy Companies list for the first time at No.16.
This is a matter of pride for 36 lac milk producers of Gujarat
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List of Solar panel manufacturers. USA has put a duty of 50% on Chinese panels
I just imposed a series of tariffs on goods made in China:
25% on steel and aluminum,
50% on semiconductors,
100% on EVs,
And 50% on solar panels.
China is determined to dominate these industries.
I'm determined to ensure America leads the world in them.
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A few ways to put Apple into perspective
Free Cash Flow = 47 ITC's FCF
Revenue = 3 Reliance Industries'
Net Profit = Entire domestic software industry
Market Cap = Approaching India GDP
R&D Spend = More than total spend by India
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Tijori just crossed a major usage milestone in the last hour - This is a thank you message to the community for your feedback & support 🙏
Useful Links
Tijori India:
Tijori USA:
Walkthrough of Tijori:
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Solar Panel Manufacturers which are listed. Most have announced plans to 3x , 4x their capacity
1. Websol
2. Swelect
3. Insolation
4. Solex
5. Alpex Solar
6. Australian Premium
Solar PV module prices have bottomed out and ALMM kicks in from April 1st (in 30 days)
Combine this with massive govt subsidy and outlay towards solar projects
India PV module and cell manufacturers will make bumper earnings in next 3 years
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India surpassed China on value of VC deals for the first time ever in July 2021.
This is on a monthly basis
India ~$7.9B
China ~$4.8B
Might be one off but nonetheless a big moment!
Source: Preqin
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Recent small cap additions by Marcellus
RHI Mag
Rainbow Hospitals
PDS Ltd
Cera Sanitaryware
Tega
Everest Ind
Ami Organics
Control Print
Shanti Gears
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SBI employees on average actually get a better salary than ICICI Bank !
Avg monthly salary
SBI ~1.4 Lacs
ICICI Bank ~60 Ths
Source: Unifi Capital
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Micro caps that can benefit from nucleur power and their market cap
AMIC Forging ~864 Crs
WPIL ~ 3213 Crs
Konstelec Engineers ~342 Crs
Walchandnagar Ind ~957 Crs
MTAR ~5944 Crs
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Ran a filter for companies that claim to hold > 5% Global Market Share in various niche products.
Let us know we're missing any.
Link:
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UPI's been growing at an exponential pace & is fast approaching the $500 billion mark in annual transactions!
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Total spend by government on infra in the next five years will be appx $750B
This is more than how much has been spent on infra in India in the last 77 years cumulatively
Might be too big a theme to ignore
Source: Abakkus
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Marcellus Coffee Can Portfolio
-A 20YR CAGR Earnings Growth of ~21% is required to justify just the CURRENT market cap of portfolio companies
-HDFC Bank is the most conservative bet - implied 20Yr earnings growth of ~11%
Note: Newton-Rhapson solver used for reverse DCF
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Tata Steel has beaten HUL in price appreciation over the last 20 years
20 year absolute growth
Tata Steel +1686%
HUL +1352%
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Disruption in the broking industry is now complete - Zerodha now has more client share than HDFC and ICICI Securities combined.
Zerodha - 17.4%
ICICI Sec - 8.4%
HDFC - 5.63%
This is not volume share of course but still a huge moment!
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API manufacturing capacity of companies as compared to Divis
Divis - X
Solara - 0.2X
Laurus - 0.3X
Neuland - 0.07X
Shilpa Medicare - 0.03X
Note - These are reactor capacities
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In the last 5 years , Bangalore has absorbed more commercial real estate than London, New York, Singapore, Beijing and Hong Kong put together!
Cumulative Net Absorption in last 5 years
Bangalore - 70.2msf
London + New York + Singapore + Beijing + HK - 69.3msf
Source: CBRE
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Deepak Nitrite
Promoters buying from open market
Mutual funds buying
Retail investors selling, with number of shareholders decreasing by 10%
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Deepak Nitrite has become Net Debt free now in 2023
Note: Net Debt = Debt - cash & short term investments
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Bajaj is the largest 2W company in the world in terms of market cap, and first to break the 1L Cr barrier
Bajaj - $13.69B(mcap)
Hero Motor - $8.98B
Eicher - $9.5B
Yamaha - $7.3B
Harley- $5.63B
Source: ET
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Chemical companies with gross margin > 70% are very few
Some like Paushak are well known, but here are a few more we filtered out
Primo Chemicals
Diamines & Chemicals
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On a lighter note, here are some 'insignificant' products generating 'significant' revenue.
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Wow, a single quarter of EBITDA from Tata Steel is equal to
>40 quarters of Pidilite
>28 quarters of Nestle
>18 quarters of Asian Paints
>3 quarters of ITC
>3 quarters of HUL
For June’21 Qtr Tata Steel EBITDA at Rs160bn is Second Highest for whole of Corporate India after Reliance Ind ! And it is higher than TCS Q1 EBITDA by ~25%
Agreed its driven by great cycle but low-cost & integrated large asset base is also key !
@TataSteelLtd
@SteelMinIndia
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Over the last ~6 months , since march 2021
NIFTY has increased by appx +21%
NIFTY PE has DECREASED by 35%
PE in March 2021 ~41
PE today ~27
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ITC revenue from FMCG excluding tobacco is 29000 Crs and is growing at 20% as per filings, which is huge.
It makes it ~1.5X Nestle
Here are appx FMCG revenue for context
HUL ~60000 Crs
ITC ~ 29000 Crs
Nestle ~17725 Crs
Britannia ~16300 Crs
Varun Bev ~14200 Crs
Godrej
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The least spoken about Indian origin CEO must be Shantanu Narayen of Adobe $ADBE
Mcap - $205B. Of this $185B added during his tenure
5yr share price CAGR - 38.1%
ARR - $12B. For context Spotify is $8B
Gross Margins - 92%
Allocates more to R&D than entire Indian IT industry!
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Promoters who have bought from the open market yesterday
Man Industries (continuous buying)
Snowman Logistics (continuous buying)
Praveg (continuous buying)
Gokul Agro
Sarla Performance Fibres
Star Cement
LT Foods
Elin Electronics
RRIL
Vijay Solvex
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One of the best illustrations of speculation in the market
There are more people investing in Suzlon than TCS
No of shareholders:
Suzlon ~28L
TCS ~23L
Asian Paints ~9.85L
Titan ~7L
Page Industries ~6L
Tata Elxsi ~5.6L
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Grasim's impact on paint sector - capacities in Mn Litres
Asian Paints ~2250
Grasim ~1250
Berger ~750
Nerolac ~500
Indigo ~250
Supply addition is big and will impact the paint industry regardless of narrative around the leader!
Source: Jefferies
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Small Caps where superstar investors have increased their stake this quarter
Ashish Kacholia
Faze Three
Virtuoso Opto
Fineotex
Rare Ent - Raghav Productivity
Abakkus - Uniparts
Vijay Kedia - Neuland,Precision Cam
Mukul Agarwal - De Nora, Surya, WPIL
Madhu Kela - Kopran
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Biggest unlisted companies in India by market cap
TATA Capital ~4,00,000 Crs
NSE ~2,37,000 Crs
SBI Mutual Fund ~90000 Crs
HDB Financial Services ~89000 Crs
Nayara Energy ~56,000 Crs
Waaree Energy ~52,000 Crs
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A sector that is silently picking up is aquaculture
- US Shrimp import for May'21 at ~80000 tonnes, highest in more than 15 years
- India's share in US imports jumps 900bps compared to April'21, takes share from Ecuador
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Companies which get a decent chunk of revenue from transformers.
Transformers will get a sizeable amount from India's infra budget
Company name and mcap
Voltamp tranformers ~9843 Crs
Transformers & Rectifiers ~8153 Crs
Shilchar Technologies ~3901 Crs
Bharat Bijlee ~3613 Crs
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Many high quality chemical names are close to 52w low
Paushak
Fine organics
Tata Chemicals
Atul ltd
Vinati Organics
Alkyl Amines
Neogen Chem
Tatva Chintan
Navin Fluorine
Any others we might have missed?
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Companies where promoters are increasing stake AND no of shareholders are decreasing
We found ~17 small and mid caps
If you come across the following combination in a shareholding pattern of a company, do spend time on the company...
you could be sitting on a potential investment opportunity
- Increase in Promoter holding
- Reduction in no. of shareholders
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Prestige Construction from Bangalore is not as well known as DLF, Lodha, Oberoi etc
But is now actually the largest in terms on revenue
Prestige ~8057 Crs Revenue
DLF ~5676 Crs
Oberoi ~4189 Crs
Sobha ~3656 Crs
Embassy REIT ~3619 Crs
Brigade ~3196 Crs
Godrej ~2943 Crs
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Tata Motors
Reminder that ~80% of the companies' total operating profit is just JLR
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Petrochemical Sector - Knowledge Base
Mapping the raw material chain from basic feed stock to everyday items we use
Investors might find it useful to keep this as a reference when trying to map the sector
Source: ICIS
Link :
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Tata Motors employee cost is no 8 in India, higher than even RIL
Its also ~7X of Maruti, pretty shocking at first glance!
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In the power sector capex theme, we looked for companies across
Generation
Transmission and Distribution
Cables & Wires
AND
Consistently high ROCE > 20%
We found only 14 companies
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Solar Panels dont get as much attention as say EMS or defence
But imports from China are down by ~80% YoY!
Almost all imports substituted by domestic manufacturing
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Many high quality companies are down more than 50% from their highs.
They have
Consistent high ROCE AND
Huge Capex AND
Very Low Debt
Clean Science
Indigo Paints
TCI Express
Sharda Cropchem
Shreyas Shipping
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No of times by which Marcellus rising giant portfolio companies have multiplied their FCF from 2010 to 2021
Page 136x
Astral 82x
Dr Lal 48x
GMM 20x
Galaxy 17x
Suprajit 14x
Info Edge 8x
Alkyl Amine 7x
LTTS 5x
Grindwell 5x
Endurance 1x
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Listed Solar EPC players in India
1. Oriana Power
2. Gensol Engineering
3. Sterling & Wilson
4. KPI Green Energy
5. Waaree Renewable Tech
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Operational Metrics on Tijori are now query-able.
You can now run queries such as:
"Show me FMCG companies with sales volume increasing"
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Two prominent banks not in this list
HDFC Bank
Kotak Bank
ABG Shipyard owes 22,842 crore to 28 banks, the biggest bank fraud booked by CBI 👇🏻
More
@ndtv
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Many high quality chemical companies are close to 52w low
Vinati
Alkyl Amines
Clean Science
Fine Organic
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Just for reference, here is the daily sales volume of natural gas for the major players
Gujarat Gas ~11.7mmscmd
Indraprastha Gas ~6.2mmscmd
Mahanagar Gas ~2.8mmscmd
Adani Total Gas ~ 1.7mmscmd
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Large vs Mid vs Small Cap IT
1YR
Large +77%
Mid +129%
Small +145%
5Yr CAGR
Large +26.8%
Mid +25.3%
Small +14.6%
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An Indian origin software company that not many people have heard of and has made it big on a global scale is - PubMatic
A profitable ad tech company, ~ $1B valuation, crunching 1 trillion bids and 134 billion ads impressions per day!
Best of luck for their IPO on the NASDAQ!
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Ideas for research - plastic pipe manufacturers and current capacity utilization as on Sep'21 quarter
Supreme - 72%
Astral - 66%
Finolex Industries - 60%
Prince Pipes - 59%
Apollo Pipes - 46%
Kriti Industries - 25%
Lot of room to grow for these companies without capex!
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Amidst all this, promoters of Jindal Stainless have casually bought ~1000 Crs worth of shares in cash over the last month
All buys we made in the open market
One more tranche of buying today as well
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After all the IPO hype, Indigo Paints needs to catch up its peers. Here is YoY PAT Growth as of latest quarter
Asian Paints +81%
Kansai Nerolac +87%
Indigo Paints -8%
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Reliance is a near monopoly domestically in the following chemicals. In many cases like LDPE it has 100% capacity market share
Benzene
Toluene
o-Xylene
p-Xylene
Linear Alkyl Benzene
MEG
Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA)
LLDPE
LDPE
Ethylene
Propylene
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Alternate data point to judge management
Promoter of Shree Cement, HM Bangur, takes the CAT exam for IIM every year to keep himself mentally fit!
Source: ET(slightly old article)
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Yearly capex planned by sector - might be useful in helping to pick companies
Green Energy ~150,000 Crs
Railways ~118,000 Crs
Water ~75,000 Crs
Defence ~70,000 Crs
PLI ~60,000 Crs
Transmission ~17,000 Crs
Data Centre ~14,000 Crs
Source: Motilal
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HDFC Bank , Cost of Borrowing
June '21 ~3.7%
Sep '21 ~3.6%
Dec '21 ~3.5%
Mar '22 ~3%
June '22 ~3.1%
Sep '22 ~3.3%
Dec '22 ~3.5%
Mar '23 ~3.7%
Merger
June '23 ~4%
Sep '23 ~4.8%
Dec '23 ~4.9%
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Just realized - DMart started producing positive free cash flow only in 2023
Came as a suprise to us!
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Similar to the IT industry in the 90's , many production houses are outsourcing VFX work to Indian companies.
Companies in this sector
Basilic Fly - Looking to grow revenue by ~70% this year
Phantom Digital - Looking to grow revenue by ~80% this year
Digikore - Looking to ~2X
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Larsen & Toubro - If you're buying it for the domestic infra story, need to keep in mind two data points
1. ~50% of operating profit is from IT and Financial services, and not from Infra
2. ~30% of revenue in Infra is not from India
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Textile exports are expected to make a come back, growing strong double digits
There are 18 export focussed companies listed, here is the complete list
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Marcellus' first screener for consistent compounders
Sales growth > 10% every year for 10 years
ROCE >15% every year for 10 years
Here's a list of companies that satisfy this criteria after a Covid year. A small cap that stands out is Suyog Telematics
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Of all the agro chemical companies, there are just 11 that have
Market cap >100 crs AND
Gross Block + CWIP has more than doubled in last three years
These companies would be in a decent position to benefit from a turnaround in the next couple of years
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Real Estate Sector - Cost of Borrowing as on March 2021
Godrej Properties consistently has the lowest cost of borrowings
Prestige 9.8%
Sobha 9%
Brigade 8.4%
Mindspace 7.1%
Embassy 7.81%
Godrej Prop 6.75%
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EMS Companies - one overlooked difference between the companies is their exposure to India
Avalon has the highest exports and also highest ROCE
Percentage of revenue from exports
Dixon ~1%
Amber ~1%
Kaynes ~15%
SyrmaSGS ~45%
Avalon ~65%
3yr Avg ROCE
Avalon ~70%
Kaynes ~27%
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Tijori ingested data for more than 2000 unique sector and macro metrics over the last month. This is apart from the countless company specific operational we index.
We hope investors are finding it useful in their research!
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IT Services industry - Tata Elxsi has the highest operating margins
TCS has higher OPM than many smaller digital players like Happiest Minds
Tata Elxsi 30%
TCS 28.5%
HCL Tech 25.4%
Happiest Minds 25%
Mastek 22%
Mindtree 21.4%
LTTS 20.7%
Mphasis 18.2%
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Main reason why railway companies are doing well
Annual investment in Railways
2014 ~$2B Run Rate
2024 ~30b Run Rate
15X growth in annual budget
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EMS companies - What IRR can you expect at current prices over 3 years
Cyient, Dixon, Avalon seem to have the worst risk-reward
Assuming exit EV by EBITDA between 18x and 25x range
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Promoters of Dr Lal have sold shares in the open market worth appx 16Crs today
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Airtel gets >20% of its revenue from Africa. This business needs more discussion
- It has 12Cr mobile subscribers
- ARPU is Rs 217 or 30% more than India
Financial services arm in Africa
- ARPU is Rs 135
- Payment volume is $208/month/sub. For context Paypal is $227 globally
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More good news just coming in, this time in textiles. India grows its market share in US imports
Below is MoM growth of India vs Total Category
All Textile: India 10% vs Category at 1.2%
Apparel: India 11% vs 5%
Home Textiles : India 9% vs 6%
Source: OTEXA
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Auto Ancillaries with dominant market share AND
Market Cap < 1000 Crs
Setco ~80% marketshare in MHCV clutches
Pritika Auto ~28% marketshare in Axle Housing
PPAP Auto ~80% marketshare in plastic sealing
Talbros ~40% marketshare in Gasket
ZF Steering ~90% market share in
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Chemical Sector Analysis Now Available
You can now research:
- Chemical Classifications
- Capacity Market Share
- Production Figures
- Customer Segments
- Export/Import Data
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Hero Motors deserves a fraction of the interest directed towards ITC
Hero vs ITC
10yr price CAGR 3% vs 5%
PE 18 vs 19
FCF Yield 4.7% vs 4.15%
Dividend Yield 3.5% vs 5%
5yr avg ROCE 30.6% vs 30.7%
Negative WC vs +ve for ITC
Debt free
Hero market share ~44%
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While we invest in Zomato at 50x sales, European investors get Swiggy for free
Prosus (which owns a portfolio of startups) has marketcap of ~$110B even though just their holding in Tencent is worth ~$150B.
Investors get unicorns like Swiggy, Byjus & PayU, effectively free!
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Broking Market Share
During the last year:
- Total active demat accounts dropped by 16%
- Zerodha, Groww & Angel One continued to gain market share
- Upstox lost the most, despite major marketing spend
- Traditional brokers remained neutral
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Promoter of Vaibhav Global has continuously been buying shares from the open market
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