Ben Kramer-Miller
@TheWealthMiner
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Hunting magic rocks, funding secured. Independent Director at Sierra Grande Minerals $SGRO.cn
Joined November 2011
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You do not have to be a professional to spot red flags in drill result news releases from junior explorers. Here are a few tips that require little to no technical knowledge.1/
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How to get an edge speculating in junior mining stonks.
A running 🧵/
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It's important to have a list of junior mining personalities you want nothing to do with. I call it my black list.
Can you please share a name or two to help the community avoid these untouchables?
I'll start with:
Amir Adnani
(yeah my list is alphabetical)
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In 2011 Barrick $GOLD $ABX.to produced 7.8 Moz. of gold at a cash cost of $460/oz (pre AISC reporting). Share count was ~1 billion
In 2021 Barrick produced 4.4Moz. at a cash cost of $725/oz. Share count is now ~1.8 billion
And this is one of the better companies!
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Ackyuall footage of Druck's due diligence on Newmont and Barrick.
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Summarize junior mining using only a GIF.
I'll start.
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I know it's not mining but check out the tobacco stocks breaking out. Wide margins, tons of cash generation, divvies, and I can assure you from experience that it's a nightmare to quit.
$MO $PM $BTI
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Market Predictions for 2022:
1: the market will fluctuate
2: mining stonks suck
3: somebody much stupider than you will dramatically outperform you by owning shitcos
4: you will be disappointed in your returns
Happy New Year
#mintwit
!
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Gold stocks are going down because the cost of mining the metal is rising faster than the price of the metal, while production is declining on a per share basis.
But yeah, find some fund flow "explanation" for the poor performance of your garbage businesses.
The most likely explanation for the weakness in gold stocks is that investors are selling them to buy
#BitcoinETFs
instead. That means
#Bitcoin
has basically become a bet against
#gold
. So when gold inevitably breaks out, the money to buy gold stocks will come from Bitcoin ETFs.
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Kinross lookin' good. $KGC $K.to
Kinross reports 2024 first-quarter results $K.TO
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@zerohedge
Can I please just get a list of things that AREN'T racist? Seems like an easier list to memorize.
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Happy 52-week lows to:
Newmont $NEM
Pan American Silver $PAAS
B2 Gold $BTG
Mag Silver $MAG
🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳
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Met coal stonks still waaay cheaper with better margins and mine lives than your stoopid gold stonks.
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Lundin Gold mining gold at $807 AISC. Buy real miners, not clown shows. $LUG.to
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3: only assume value in industry-accepted elements for a particular deposit type.
There are more things to look for, but this is a good start if you want to avoid companies engaged in deceptive disclosure. 14/14
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If you’re worried that the rise in the capital gains tax in Canada will hurt Canadian junior miners just remember that the CGT only applies when there are capital gains.
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You think I read these things cover-to-cover? This is exactly what I do. I have a list of key words that I go through to give a project a first pass. Some are:
Royalty(ies)
Strip
Concentrate
Refractory
Arsenic
Silica
Carbon(aceous)
Claims
#mintwit
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If you bought Gamestop 20 years ago you're sitting on a 10-bagger even though the company should've died years ago.
If you bought Barrick your stonk is down, despite a 6-fold increase in the gold price.
Bull market or not, never forget
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Most mining companies are just crappy rollups run by lousy commodity speculators who care more about their salaries than creating shareholder value.
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Some common terms used by junior mining stonk promoters to hide their bad news and what they akshually mean:
"Significant drill intercepts": Sub-economic geochem anomaly found.
"High grade intercepts": Narrow intercepts
"Robust" MRE, PEA...etc.: Not robust
/
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Now that silver has "broken out" and is on its way to $43 trillion/oz. as da bankstaz cover their quadrillion-contract naked short position, what are the most degen "silver" stonks out there that you own?
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Looking for copper juniors with deposits, low valuations, tight share structure. I don't care how slimy the CEO is or how much the locals hate the project. Just looking for a bit of torque. Any ideas?
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If you bought Marathon Gold because it has a good project that is just about financed and permitted, and that it is a good takeout target you were right. You also probably lost/didn't make money. This is how lousy the junior resource sector is.
$MOZ.to
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Quality
#mintwit
accts to follow in 2024
@michaelbhorner
@Mark_IKN
@TMExploration
@equivestinvest
@SultanAmeerali
@1_adoy
@NateSmith2011
@InspectionDeep
@SpecInsights
@gringo_in_arg
@VukasinPekovic
@respeculator
@saskexplorer1
@pop_whiskey
@HighBorrowCost
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Great news! Literally nobody cares about gold anymore, so now it can moon 🥳
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Yet another professional investor who looks only at the divergence between gold and miners and who can’t be bothered with cash flow models
Barrick, whose production is declining, just told us it’s costs are rising much faster than the gold price. What does this mean for EPS/FCF?
For the past 3 weeks gold is down 1.5% while senior gold miners collapsed 11%.
This cannot be solely explained by poor sentiment. Who in the world dumping already dirt cheap mining stocks so vigorously as gold is trading firmly above $2,000?
There is not any reasonable
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True thickness estimates of drillholes explained. Drill intercepts can vary in width depending on how the drillhole is angled relative to the mineralized vein. The sine of the angle between the drillhole and vein is used to determine the vein's thickness with enough info
#mintwit
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I did some number crunching on Franco's Eagle royalty, which I think does a good job of highlighting the power of the royalty model. $FNV $FNV.to $VGCX
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I overthought this one. Just buy it. Hopefully some dupe pukes tomorrow am cuz you can just buy his shares.
This gold mine is just really, really good. I mean really good.
$LUG.to
Lundin Gold Reports First Quarter Of 2024 Results; Results Provide Strong Foundation to Meet 2024 Guidance $LUG.TO
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Some copper I found in Nevada. These samples are also running multi-gram gold.
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It is really important to understand what "refractory ore" is so you can understand why Kinross $KGC $K.to would rather buy Great Bear than Freegold Ventures. $FVL.to
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Moar nonsense on how gold miners must be "cheap" because they are at the same price level as they were when gold was lower.
Gold price is just one input. Costs up, share counts up, annual production down...etc.
Amazing so many so-called "experts" can't figure this out.
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Wheaton PM just hit an all time high. Meanwhile Barrick and Kinross are trading at less than 1/3 of their all time highs, and Newmont 40% below.
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Wheaton PM about to make an all time high. Slow and boring but fantastic margins, and a good track record of allocating capital. 💪
$WPM $WPM.to
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America's Gold and Silver failed to adequately test Relief Canyon "ore" for preg-robbing material prior to putting the mine into production.
What does this mean?
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Name a publicly traded mining company that generates more than 50% of its revenue from silver at today's prices.
Cuz I don't think there are any primary silva miners at this point.
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New drinking game: take a shot every time Dumb Durrett retweets something with the comment "probably nothing." You'll get wasted. Run a search if you don't believe me.
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The prize for Argonaut sharehodlers has always been Magino. Finally they start to build it, but due to cost overruns they wind up blowing out their share count by 700M and selling a 3% NSR, only to sell to Alamos at a 90% discount to the share price when construction started. 🥳
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"We're pleased to announce that we've lost some drill core and have wasted shareholder money. We thank you for playing🥳. $DBG.v
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Name and shame time
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These numbers look pretty good.
Agnico will have a higher market cap than Barrick soon at this rate.
$AEM $AEM.to
AGNICO EAGLE REPORTS FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR 2023 RESULTS - RECORD QUARTERLY AND ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION AND FREE CASH FLOW; RECORD MINERAL RESERVES INCREASED 10.5%; UPDATED THREE-YEAR GUIDANCE $AEM.TO
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MaLi Is RiSkY
$TMQ
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Gold was $1900+ for most of Q3. The following gold miners lost money anyway.
B2 Gold $BTG
Coeur Mining $CDE
Pan American Silver $PAAS
Hecla Mining $HL
McEwen Mining $MUX
With a couple exceptions the ones that make money aren't making much.
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If a company holds a 2% NSR royalty on a gold mine, in your opinion what effective percentage of the mine does the royalty holder own?
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Comments from Barrick, Fortuna, B2 Gold…etc clearly indicate further cost inflation in gold mining. It’s not due to oil prices.
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As promised here's a thread on the nugget effect.
First, in order to understand the nugget effect you need to know what a semi-variogram is.
I've put together a couple visuals but you should check out this video.
#mintwit
1/
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Gold is rising, but oil is rising much faster. What is this doing to mining costs? High-cost miners are especially vulnerable. Royalty/streaming companies, along with low-cost miners to a lesser extent, are shielded from this.
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52-week low fun in gold stonks:
SSR Mining $SSRM
Endeavour Silver $EXK $EDR.to
First Not-So-Majestic Silver $AG $FR.to
Newmont $NEM
Pan American Silver $PAAS $PAAS.to
Mag Silver $MAG $MAG.to
Hecla Mining $HL
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Copper went from $2 to almost $5 in a year. If you think it can't correct to $3.50 while related junior equities correct 50% you're deluding yourself.
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$EDV.to
Endeavour Mining fires CEO for serious misconduct after investigating $5.9M irregular payment. Ian Cockerill takes over as new CEO. Remuneration details to come. $EDV.TO
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To summarize, management should:
1: comment on true widths of drill holes, even if they don't have sufficient information to provide specific numbers.
2: comment on all drill holes, even dusters and failed holes. 13/
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Hey Nolan Watson: you had ample time to issue stonk at $9-$10 using the ATM facility, bragged about buying it back at an avg. price of ~$5.45 in 2020, and now issue it at $5.10. Fuck you! $SAND
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Bought mining stocks.
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Barrick Gold shares fall as Amazon says it will go into gold mining.
SPOTIFY FALLS PREMARKET AMID AMAZON MUSIC'S PODCAST LAUNCH
$SPOT
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Where's the warrant?
Where's Eric Sprott?
Crescat?
Hmm...maybe some actual meat on this bone? $NGEX.v
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In light of the Aurania news I've decided to start a gold exploration company that will utilize the power of Tarot cards and Ouiga boards to find the next 10 million oz. deposit. Need startup funds to hire a chief spirit guide.
Any takers?
$ARU.v
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Updated list of companies QH is involved with:
1-Novo Resources
2-Irving Resources
3-Tristar Gold
4-NV Gold
5-Ethos Gold
6-Precipitate Gold
7-Hannan Metals
8-Eskay Mining
9-Nulegacy Gold
10-Newfound Gold
11-Miramont Resources
12-Lion One Metals
13-Condor Resources
Condor Closes $990,000 Private Placement Financing, Dr. Quinton Hennigh Appointed Director, Options Granted
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I own 0 gold miners.
I own the royalty companies: Franco, Wheaton, Royal.
I think I made this clear several times. I suppose I have to reiterate this.
@TheWealthMiner
@real_MikeBarnes
So Ben what are the better ones? Come on, all you do is bash the ever living shit out of every miner….which ones do you view as better? List your top three…large cap, mid, jr.
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And politicians wonder why people don't trust a word they say. $TMQ
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The ability to drop a project and to tell investors "we tested it and it simply isn't good enough" is a sign of strength, not weakness.
@MiningCatalyst
This is exactly how it should be done, companies should be rewarded for testing projects, then moving on if there is no chance for a mine. Instead junior co's are forced to stay focused on dog projects not to be seen as failures
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Setting aside the fact that silver miners suck, and the structural issues with SILJ, which is designed to buy high and sell low; the new manager today was a buyer of Coeur $CDE and a seller of Filo $FIL.to.
Can you think of a dumber pair trade, or a better short than $SILJ?
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Pan American provides a convenient table that quantifies the extent to which the company sucked in 2023. 🙏
$PAAS $PAAS.to
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Gold miners are weak because they are producing fewer ounces at a higher cost of production.
Lundin Gold, which is growing production and keeping costs under control is at an all time high.
Today the
#gold
price closed at a new 52-week high. Yet senior miners still need to rise by over 20% and juniors by over 25% to hit new 52-week highs. The divergence is due to negative sentiment. Investors still don't believe the rally is real. It's real and will be spectacular.
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Franco got fooled. What makes you think you can do any better DD? Be extremely careful in juniors and position-size accordingly. $RPX.v
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Great call with John Black at
@IncRegulus
. We spoke for almost 2 hrs. This is a very complex story. Except for the rocks: the rocks are top notch.
I'll post a couple of his responses to the questions you guys posted over the next couple days.
$REG.v
Chat with John Black Thurs morning. Lemme know if you have any questions for him. DMs open. Plz don't waste my time.
$REG.v
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Long the royalty companies, short the miners.
This is what I bought during yesterday's bloodbath.
$RGLD
Royal Gold Reports Strong Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Operating and Financial Results $RGLD
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Watching "Kitchen Nightmares" and 2 things come to mind:
First, why tf would anybody want to open a restaurant
Second, we need a Gordon Ramsay with expertise in mining to come do the same thing with junior mining shitcos
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A good way to differentiate the serious explorers from the 🤡's is to see whether they're doing met work early on. There's no point in spending money on exploration if you can't get the metal out of the rock. $KLD.v
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Gold miners are cheap to gold. When are we going to break the downtrend line so we can all just be happy?
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9) Too many of you appear to own too many junior stocks. If you aren't doing this professionally you probably have the bandwidth to handle at most 5.
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Hooooly fuck. I had to hit my crack pipe twice to make sure I read this right. Warrant exercise price amended from C$0.65 to C$0.08.
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5) Compile a black list of people you want to avoid. This thread is a good starting point.
It's important to have a list of junior mining personalities you want nothing to do with. I call it my black list.
Can you please share a name or two to help the community avoid these untouchables?
I'll start with:
Amir Adnani
(yeah my list is alphabetical)
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Guy is literally CEO of the company he is pumping in his newsletter. 🤡
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Franco spent ~$80M to acquire a 3% NSR on Magino. At $2,000 gold and 200koz/yr this is $12M/yr with little operating risk, exposure to higher gold prices/exploration success w/o exposure to higher operating costs.
Franco not cheap, but it works.
$FNV
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This is really bad. $SSRM
Erzincan'ın İliç ilçesindeki Anagold Altın Madeni'nde göçük meydana geldi. Siyanür ve sülfürik asit dağları çöktü. Çok sayıda işçinin göçük altında kaldığı belirtiliyor.
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Happy Thanksgiving! I'm grateful for
#mintwit
, which makes me look smarter than I really am and keeps me in check.
I'm also grateful for da cheapies, the weak hands, and my hedge fund overlords.
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True width is effectively the sine of the angle between the drill hole and the assessed dip angle of the mineralized structure. 3/
True thickness estimates of drillholes explained. Drill intercepts can vary in width depending on how the drillhole is angled relative to the mineralized vein. The sine of the angle between the drillhole and vein is used to determine the vein's thickness with enough info
#mintwit
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@SBakerMD
"Do you eat red meat"?
Ya 2 tiny patties on a sugar bun with sugar ketchup, a liter of sugar water and a half pound of potatoes fried in canola oil.
Verdict: red meat bad.
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Nobody could've seen this coming, I mean NOBODY. $AG $FR.to
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0.07% Cu reported at 0.84% CuEq. 🤡🤡
$DBG.v
Doubleview Reports New Discovery: Gold Rich Zone Within the South Lisle Zone - Drill Interval of 405m of 0.21 g/t Gold (0.84% CuEq) That Extends the Main Lisle Deposit by 240 Meters $DBG.V
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