The Swing Report
@TheSwingReport
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The Swing Report brings you unparalleled market insights from the mind of US Investing Champion and Record Holder, Oliver Kell.
Joined January 2023
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$ANF had a 350%+ run starting May 2023. Let's train our eyes to spot these winners so we can catch the next one.
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Want today's issue of The Swing Report?
Reply 'send' to this tweet and we'll DM you today's Swing Report for free.
Must be following us so we can message you.
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Key Elements of the Wedge Pop
1) The Wedge Pop is the first time the market trades back up across the moving averages after a reversal extension.
2) Before the Wedge Pop, there is often a noticeable decline in volatility as the stock forms a range at the bottom of the base
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Oliver generally does two types of trades
1 - Buying stocks coming out of multi month bases
2 - Pullback buys after the initial move
👇See below for an example of each type👇
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Price cycle in action
$SMCI - Two back to back entries, one leading to a 70% gain and the next one leading to a 20% gain.
Wedge pop gets you into the trend, wedge drop keeps you out of trouble.
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Price cycle in action
$SN - From wedge pop to this Fridays close, it has trended up almost 60% without closing below the 20 ema.
Along the way, it has provided multiple points of entry via the EMA crossback, reconfirms, and against the 10/20 ema.
Let's see if it break
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Want to learn about price structure and what makes a trend?
Here is the book that
@OliverKell_
recommends to level up 👇
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Price cycle in action
$SMCI - Two back to back entries, one leading to a 70% gain and the next one leading to a 20% gain.
Wedge pop gets you into the trend, wedge drop keeps you out of trouble.
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$RNA - Huge winner in the past half year, up over 200%.
Let's see how the price cycle can help us identify future winners 👇
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$FSLR Good example of something Oliver says "From failed moves, come fast moves.
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In this video,
@OliverKell_
goes over how he lets higher highs and higher lows guide him when he is looking to hold positions.
"One of the things that really helped me hold stocks....."
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If you miss the breakout, don't chase. Instead watch the 65 min chart for a pullback to the back test area.
Oliver goes over this strategy in the video below.
The full video is here:
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With earning season starting there will be multiple opportunities to buy gap ups.
In this video
@OliverKell_
reviews how he plans his entries & stops along with how to handle the emotions that come with the additional volatility of gap ups.
👉 👈
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When
@OliverKell_
won the 2020 US Investing Championship $TSLA was his largest winner, which he traded multiple times.
In this video Oliver reviews his trades, going bar by bar highlighting the price & volume action that triggered his decisions.
👉 👈
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The Next Swing Report Webinar with
@OliverKell_
will be this Saturday 3/16 at 11am EST
Topic: Sell Rules & Stop Loss System
We have 5 spots reserved for non-members who are looking to join the Swing Report
Retweet 🔁 and Reply below if interested 👇
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Oliver breaks each principle down in detail in his latest video:
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📈Anatomy of a trade📈
$CRWD has been one of the biggest winners this year.
The attached screenshots are notes in the
@TheSwingReport
from
@OliverKell_
during the trade.
📷 Retweet, Like, Bookmark📷
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After a market correction you need to gather evidence that the market is safe to trade again.
In this 10 minute video
@OliverKell_
covers two of his favorite indicators he uses to either size up & get aggressive or pullback and play defense.
👉 👈
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How Oliver trades breakouts out of big weekly bases
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Here are Oliver's thoughts on $FSLR and why he thinks this could be a big winner. The below video is from a subscriber only webinar.
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Price cycle in action
Dec 2016 $TSLA
From wedge pop to wedge drop, this stock ran up 35%+
Chart those winners and you'll increase your ability to spot the next one.
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Price cycle in action
$FTAI - From EMA Crossback to Wedge drop, it trended up 90% without breaking the 20 ema.
Marking up charts is the best way to train your eyes to catch AND hold the next stock that trends.
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Oliver's Terminology
Bookmark this post so you can come back and reference the meaning of terms Oliver uses in the report and in his tweets.
🔁 Retweet to share🔁
2B Reversal / Wyckoff Spring
A price pattern where the stock trends down and undercuts a significant prior support
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📈Anatomy of a trade📈
$SMCI is a great example of a stock that Oliver caught at the start of its move and sold at the highs (+200%).
The attached notes he shared with
@TheSwingReport
subscribers showing his thoughts throughout this run.
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$SMCI snapshot from the Swing Report sent out last night. $AMD $NVDA $SMCI all moving higher today.
SMCI added to SPX-500.....hand to hand combat this week, made 10, lost 30.....and feel like got it right between yesterday and adds today.......1000 next spot but weekly looks like bull flag going into next week to me.....see where it opens next week.
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Growth stocks trading above all key moving averages. These stocks are ahead of the QQQ in terms of their price cycle.
$AXON $NU $ADMA $MELI $TPG $IDCC $ENVA $POWL $TKO $RBLX $FRPT $PRCT $TMDX $INSP $DASH $MMYT $KNSL $OSCR $RNR $RYAN $FOUR $CWAN $CYBR $IOT $MNDY $NOW $TTD $YOU
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"The best buys are on gaps that don't fill. So you have to get comfortable with the risk on those buy points."
-
@OliverKell_
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FAQ: What is Olivers batting average?
15-20%: Stock trends and he is able to size up the position as it moves higher
20%: Small wins where the stock moved up a little and he was able to move stops into the money.
60-65%: Scratch trades with very tight risk.
The trick to the
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Too much emphasis is put on setups & entry tactics while sell rules are ignored.
In this video you'll learn
@OliverKell_
sell signals:
- Break of the Stock's Respected Moving Average
- Higher Low Shelf Pattern
- Daily & Weekly Extensions
- & more!
👉 👈
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In this video
@OliverKell_
shares his inspiring journey from losing his job to winning the 2020 US Investing Championship with a record breaking (+941%) return!
He covers early trading mistakes, the secrets of institutional traders & more!
👉 👈
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Pay attention to 3 bar breaks. It is a major character change.
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Price Cycle In Action
$BROS May 2024
20%+ Swing trade
Bull snort should've gotten this on watchlist. A pullback buy in the EMA crossback area along with an add on the follow thru.
Keep an active bull snort watchlist so you can track the next stock that trends above its ema's.
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📈Anatomy of a trade📈
$COIN 85%+ gain! See attached screenshots of the play by play for this trade.
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Price cycle in action
April 2020 $NVDA
From wedge pop to wedge drop, this stock ran up 90%+. Chart shows multiple unfilled gaps, higher highs and higher lows, each one leading to a reconfirm bar.
Chart those winners and you'll increase your ability to spot the next one.
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One of the keys to understanding Oliver's style is to familiarize yourself with the different time frames that he uses.
Each time frame serves a purpose and it all starts with the weekly (and monthly) time frames. This is where he is looking at the big picture patterns.
If the
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Price cycle in action
$ADBE circa 2017
You can learn more here:
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How Oliver uses the index at turning points to guide his positioning
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Anatomy of a trade
$NVDA 40%+ gain in six weeks
Jan 5th, 2024 Report
Oliver goes over why he thinks NVDA is about to run higher based on the existing pattern
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Price Structure/Basic Strategy Review
Here is a simple visual to help better understand what it is we are trying to accomplish. For subscribers of
@theswingreport
, this is covered in great detail in Webinar 1.
The first visual is just of price structure and trend. At the end
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The ideal setup that Oliver would buy over and over again is....
For the full video:
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We are excited to announce that
@OliverKell_
will be doing a Free Webinar this upcoming Tuesday at 8:30 EST.
Topic: Improving Trading Execution through Market Prep
He will share how he sets alerts and prepares for each trading day
Spots are limited! 👇
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This Saturday is
@OliverKell_
's Educational Webinar on Market Analysis
✅ Set ups/stocks as a Guide
✅ PnL Indicator
✅ Direction of 50/200 SMA
✅ NAMO, NASI & Other Indicators
We have 5 seats available for non-members
🔁 & Reply below if interested👇
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$SPOT - Train your eyes to spot these winners using the price cycle.
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Among the lists that Oliver maintains, his most important one is the Top Dogs (10 names max.).
He considers this to be the best names in the market and the ones that he wants to be in.
So how does he define a Top Dog?
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Price cycle in action
$VITL - From bull snort to wedge drop, it trended up 130% without closing below the 10 ema.
Marking up charts is the best way to train your eyes to catch AND hold the next stock that trends.
H/T
@RichardMoglen
for bringing this to our attention
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Price cycle in action
2020 $AMZN
From wedge pop to wedge drop, AMZN gained 65% without breaking the 20 ema.
The stock moved pretty quickly after the wedge pop followed by two base and breaks.
The first base and break provided a lot of opportunities to get long the
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Price Cycle in Action
$AMZN 2020
From wedge drop to wedge pop, AMZN gained 65% in five months as it held the 20ema.
Study past winners to train your eyes so you can spot the next stock trends.
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Watch how
@OliverKell_
stacks the odds in his favor by combining levels, moving averages, and pivots to get into names on his watchlist.
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Summary of Oliver's thoughts on the market from last nights report:
"There are no setups so I would be suspicious of a follow through day if it occurred on day 4/5 or so.
I view the market as guilty until proven innocent and remain in cash. Just waiting.'
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Key Characteristics of the Reversal Extension:
1- Look for a defined support level on a higher timeframe.
2- When price approaches the higher timeframe level, it must be extended from the 10 EMA on the lower time frame chart (air between price and the moving average).
3- When
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While the markets are closed for President's Day, use your day off trading to discover how to time the market using price cycles from
@OliverKell_
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$BLBD As a follow up to this tweet, here's a more granular explanation of what to look for in terms of positive volume profiles
BLBD might be the single greatest example of positive volume profiles seen. Worth printing weekly out and studying/saving imo. Volume started Dec 2022, really kicked in May 2023...then that volume was supported into Nov/Dec bottom....volume drives every big move imo.
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$AVAV serves a good example of how we should be able to identify future winners 👇
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Oliver's 10 Trading Principles:
1. Put Risk First
2. If You Fail to Plan, You Are Planning to Fail
3. Don't Trust Your Stocks, Trust Your Stops
4. Better to be Out & Want in, Than in & Want Out
5. Let your P&L Guide Your Level of Aggression
6. Only Price Pays
7. Sell Into
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"A lot of people fall into the trap of thinking that all gaps fill. When in reality, most trends, in my experience, actually start with a big gap"
- Oliver Kell
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Two types of patterns that help you raise your stops.
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"Trade in the direction of the expansions"
-Oliver Kell
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"Most people fail to become successful, because they are unwilling to be vulnerable to their strategy"
Oliver Kell
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Oliver's thoughts on the market and what he is watching.
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How do top traders like
@OliverKell_
always have positions in the leadings stocks in the market?
It all comes down to stock selection! In this video,
@OliverKell_
reveals the characteristics of the winning stocks that makes his focus list.
👉 👈
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One of Oliver's go to setups is the Descending wedge.
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No Setup No Trade
You're more likely to capitalize during a strong market if you can sit on your hands during tough patches.
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Worth watching these two short videos. You'll see a lot of similarities in how both Zanger and Kell trade.
Part 1
Part 2
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The EMA crossback is a key component of the price cycle. It helps Oliver get into positions while minimizing risk. Learn the nuances in our latest blog.
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📈Price Cycle In Action📈
$AAPL Mar 2023
20%+ Swing trade
Trended off the 20 ema through its run with lots of shakeouts and unfilled gaps.
Chart winners from the past so you can catch the next stock that trends above its ema's.
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The next Swing Report Webinar with Oliver is this upcoming Wednesday.
Oliver will be covering the current markets and key concepts related to trading and handling corrections.
We have 5 spots available to non-members.
Retweet this & comment "Wedge Pop" if interested
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"Don't let ppl give you fomo when index under 10 day (or ever). If it were to ever take out 10/20 day would be a process that would present plenty of opps.
More imp not to lose money. One setup at a time. No one knows what mkt going to do."
Oliver Kell
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Oliver's Weekend Routine Checklist
1- Review lists and scans (growth scans, Russell 3k, institutional leaders list etc).
2- Create a list of 30-40 names that look good for the following week (most names repeat from previous week).
3- Go over Top Dogs list to make sure he is
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In this video, Olivers shares how he takes profits on pullback buys vs the big base breakouts
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You need a way to objectively analyze price action.
Doing so reduces FOMO, greed, and other emotional responses that dampen performance.
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$NVDA 65 Min-Can see how we are into the 20EMA again and how this is where it has failed in the past. Currently, we have a few positive cluses.
1) Bullish Counter-Attack bar on the lows.
2) Break and recapture at 98.50.
3) A higher low with a higher high on the 65 Min (as of
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Multi month bases
If a stock Oliver likes is building a big monthly base (see example of $NVDA), he keeps an eye on how it builds under the base pivot.
All major breakouts build a couple of days before the breakout because they build off the bottom of the base
He's looking
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"I don't regret it. You have to take stabs to get onboard."
Important last sentence from
@OliverKell_
discussing his $SMCI entry this week. When focusing on the top names in the market with the highest potential you have to be willing to take a few paper cuts while getting on.
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🚨 Advanced Entry Tactics Webinar with
@1charts6
When: January 13, 2024 at 11am EST
Oliver will be hosting the first Educational Webinar for subscribers of TheSwingReport!
Join:
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📈 Anatomy Of A Trade📈
$ARM +35% in less than a month
Oliver was stalking this one in late May and identified the exact level to enter.
As the move went parabolic, he exited the trade in pieces and reduced the rest into the bearish engulfing bar.
👇 See the play by play
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🚨 New Blog Post🚨
Anatomy Of A Trade: CAVA
This blog post does a deep dive and unveils Oliver's thought process and trade execution in and out of CAVA for a 40% trade.
👉 👈
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Once a stock is setup to breakout on the daily chart it's time to drill down into the lower timeframes to pinpoint your entry.
Learn
@OliverKell_
Breakout Day Checklist:
✅ Action around S1/R1
✅ Intraday Closes vs. 20EMA
✅ Pullbacks to VWAP
👉 👈
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The more
@TheSwingReport
you read, the more you realize that
@OliverKell_
is almost always focused on one, and very rarely, two stocks on any given day. He keeps a very small focus list.
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The best buy areas are gaps that don't fill the gap...
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Oliver's describes a key nuance when looking for relative strength during corrections
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Buying & shorting stocks because they are "extended" costs amateur traders the most money when trading.
In this video
@OliverKell_
shows how professional traders stay objective by using the market's price cycles to time when to buy & when to sell!
👉 👈
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The next Swing Report Webinar with
@OliverKell_
will be this Saturday 4/20 at 11am EST
Topic: Stock Selection
We have 5 spots reserved for non-members who are looking to join the Swing Report
Retweet 🔁 and Reply below if interested 👇
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The importance of theme in Oliver's trading
Pay attention to trends around you because if you can identify the right themes, you'll likely get into the top 2-3 names of that cycle.
Is the theme a one hit wonder, cyclical (copper recently) or a longer term theme (e.g. AI,
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"After a correction, if you wait for breadth confirmation, you have often missed the lowest risk entry points on the leading names."
Learn how
@OliverKell_
uses market corrections to discover the top stocks & prepares for the next uptrend!
👉 👈
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Below is Oliver's comment regarding the market from today's report.
"The uptrend continues with most of our names continuing to plug higher. I will continue to ride the trend and listen to the market.
One thing I will note though is that if we were to put in more of an extreme
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Price cycle in action
$MSFT - From EMA Crossback to Wedge drop, it trended up 27% without closing below the 20 ema.
Marking up charts is the best way to train your eyes to catch AND hold the next stock that trends.
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Stocks still above their 10/20 ema.
Scanning for growth stocks that are still above their key long and short term moving averages is a good place to start to look for RS
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📈 Price Cycle In Action📈
$AAPL May 2024
+22% Swing trade from EMA Crossback to Wedge Drop
Bull snort followed by sideways action gave a great opportunity to get long on the crossback.
Multiple unfilled gaps present throughout the run, even before the wedge pop.
Trended
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One of the 3 screens that Oliver runs daily is the Gappers screen.
"I will adjust up the gap % if entire market is gapping up, to focus on the strongest names.
This screen often returns same names as Bull Snorts but can yield some gems and highlight earnings movers."
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