Root 🥕
@therationalroot
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#Bitcoin On-chain & Cycle analyst. Supported by @BitcoinMagazine & @btcdirect . Building the Bitcoin Strategy Platform & Newsletter.
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I present the
#Bitcoin
S2F Cross Asset Spiral based on
@100trillionUSD
's Cross Asset Model, but incorporating block-time/halvings. A visual representation of bitcoin’s outwards spiral in search of its marketcap corresponding with its S2F.
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#Bitcoin
making a macro bottom.
Short-term holders supply indicates a macro bottom, comparable to the low of the 2014/15 and 2018/19 bear market, an opportunity that doesn't occur often.
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Volatility still in range with previous cycles. All cycles finished with a parabolic run.
#Bitcoin
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"Stay away from FIAT money .. it's fake money made of paper and lies. The Central Banks are printing more money than ever before. Invest in
#Bitcoin
" - Solid Christmas advice by Mexican billionaire
@RicardoBSalinas
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I present the
#Bitcoin
Halving-Hype Cycle Spiral. Utilizing blocks measured in time and starting at the halving for being the cycle’s initiator due to its supply shock and hype, therefore preferable to the 4yr cycle.
Let's march to Q1'22!
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So bearish today even though we are still hovering around the same range (~35k) totally in line with previous bull markets!
🧵👇
#Bitcoin
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The reason for current extended sell-off, short 🧵👇
Asia’s largest exchange, Huobi, has stopped related trading in China.
#Bitcoin
has been flowing from Asia to the US and Europe for some time.
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Talking about scarcity, Illiquid supply is growing near twice as fast as new supply 🤯. This is why we made the 69k ATH in bear market conditions.
Coming up: the '24 Halving matched with an ever growing HODL army! I think no one is ready for what's to come.
#Bitcoin
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Blue dots represent ATH's, they almost all fall within the same quarter circle and so far we had half as many as previous cycles. I wonder what will happen in the next months 👀.
#Bitcoin
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The HODL Model:
#Bitcoin
's illiquid supply is outpacing supply issuance.
As illiquid supply rises, so do the market impacts of bitcoin's digital scarcity.
Short 🧵👇
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Instead of a lengthening cycle we might as well call it the beginning of a new cycle.
#Bitcoin
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✅ Consolidation phase completed, maybe set a bear bottom and then the parabolic move up 🚀.
#Bitcoin
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The first blue dot (ATH) has landed!
The alignment is wondrous, this is what human psychology looks like in a programmed money.
#Bitcoin
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I usually prefer to be conservative, but looking at the shape of
#bitcoin
bull markets, '22 is either going to be insane or human psychology will have to be different this time.
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We are exactly halfway the current halving!
Last halving: 630,000
Current block: 735,000
Next halving: 840,000
Ready for the next halving?
#Bitcoin
🚀
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"
#Bitcoin
should be part of every investor's portfolio"
"The fraud FIAT is inherent to the FIAT system and we can see it today in the USA...the dollar as hard money is a joke"
- Ricardo Salinas Pliego
@RicardoBSalinas
(Mexican billionaire, 3rd richest)
CC:
@michael_saylor
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#Bitcoin
and Lightning ⚡️ making its way into the legacy system. Cheaper and faster, nothing can stop this revolution!
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Consolidation comparison
#Bitcoin
bull markets:
2013, 197 days
2017, 55 days
2021, 66 days (and counting)
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Pack it up guys, this was it.
#Bitcoin
’s network effect will suddenly stop here.
OR
Have a look at these charts:
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The 2021 cycle so far gave us 32 blue dots (ATH's). We had 72 in the 2017 cycle and 52 in the 2013 cycle. Let the fireworks for 2022 begin!
#Bitcoin
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The
#Bitcoin
Compass 🧭.
North: Previous ATH
East: ATH
South: Bear bottom
North-West: Halving
We're presently navigating East to new highs.
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Leveraging the HODL Model we can estimate the
#Bitcoin
Halving Impact / Supply Shock:
2012 Halving: 47.8%
2016 Halving: 23.2%
2020 Halving: 11.5%
2024 Halving: 5.9%
2028 Halving: 3.3%
Note that the estimates are conservative.
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A -30% drop seems like much but when we zoom out and compare it to previous cycles we see that it is totally normal. 🧵👇
#Bitcoin
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My thesis stands, using Illiquid supply as a proxy for scarcity, this is the most mind-blowing chart.
Not if, but when demand comes back things will get insane.
#Bitcoin
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Just had a really nice private conversation with
@100trillionUSD
. Thanks PlanB for your open mindset and willingness to share ideas about onchain & backtesting strategies.
Gotta love the
#bitcoin
community. 🙏
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Sustained rally to $35,000 exactly in the Disbelief Phase! 🔥
@TheRationalRoot
🥕 Cycle Analysis from
#Bitcoin
Amsterdam:
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#Bitcoin
Spiral: The Halving Cycle.
Measured in blocks — the top and bottom alignment of past two cycles is insane!
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HODL'ers are relentless, 75% of all coins in circulation are Long-Term Holders, levels not seen since 2015.
#Bitcoin
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