Craig
@TheLawyerCraig
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Husband, Dad, Lawyer • 10+ years active duty USAF in the mighty F-15E Strike Eagle • UGA & Northwestern Law • #DawgsOnTop
Chicago, IL
Joined June 2012
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Baby on the flight was crying until this guy came in with the assist.
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An old friend of mine has been a Southwest Airlines pilot for years. We came up together in the same Air Force fighter squadron and served two combat deployments together. An eminently pragmatic and decent dude. So I reached out for his thoughts on recent events…
Thread🧵🧵🧵
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14/ That’s pretty much all Doom had to say (I think he’s doing preflight checks right now). He hopes there is no mandate and that he and others are not forced to choose between the vaccine and their job. Whether you agree with him or not, I wanted to give you my friend's take.
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Can we please stop the gaslighting that European countries' policies to not mask 2-6yos is somehow tied to vaccination %? These policies existed when the vax % was ZERO. And some countries went higher in age. If you want to argue merits, argue merits. Don't make shit up.
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I know we can't fire up the DeLorean and see what never masking a child would've looked like, but we can try. For example, we can see that several Euro nations never masked the younger cohorts, and we can assume they weren't eugenicists. But that doesn't persuade.
Thread 🧵🧵🧵
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9/ Doom says that the political pressure is palpable, and it’s creating an undercurrent of distrust by acting like those who choose not to be vaccinated (right now)—especially those previously infected—are treated as a homogenous group of malcontent crazies. That’s not it.
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6/ Doom is especially concerned about having to take a vaccine with time-limited data (even if robust) on side effects. He’s especially worried about blood clots. He concedes they’re extremely rare but worries about pilots, who are already at increased risk based on their job.
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7/ He’s also had documented Covid. The risk-reward for him, and the potential of him being grounded (potentially permanently) from a rare side effect is frightening. He weighs that more heavily than potential re-infection for a prior-infected, young, otherwise healthy guy.
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5/ Doom clearly does not approve of a vaccine mandate. He’s quite up to date on the efficacy data, including the disparity over time for infection/transmission and for symptomatic and serious outcomes. Doom simply thinks we’re far too early to be mandating this.
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If your symptoms would've led to you calling in sick in 2019 and resting/hydrating/drinking soup, please do not seek emergency medical care for those same symptoms today simply because you have tested positive for Covid.
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10/ Doom knows that if you make the stick big enough and hit hard enough, you can probably get better “results” than with a carrot—but only short-term. It’s not a one-shot world (pardon the pun), and he thinks the institutional credibility loss will permeate for years to come.
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8/ Doom fully acknowledges the vaccine’s effect on outcome severity but claims that shouldn’t be used as a justification for a mandate. As far as protecting the public, he believes that the efficacy on infection/transmission, especially as time goes on, doesn’t justify a mandate.
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All
#Omicron
data of which I am aware shows the reduction in severity outpaces the increase in transmission such that severe outcomes will likely be lower *in raw numbers* than other waves (not just as a % of cases).
Please stop talking school closures or lockdowns.
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I’d like to share a story about my friend Dee “Piston” Imlay, who died in the cockpit of his F-15E Strike Eagle during a deployment over 7 years ago.
It contains a cameo by Kelis’s
#Milkshake
—more on that soon.
A brief thread for
#MemorialDayWeekend
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11/ He wonders whether a 64-year-old passenger (or pilot) vaccinated 9 months ago is less apt to transmit Covid than a young pilot with a confirmed prior infection. He thinks the latter is a safer bet but notes it’s still (as of now) “get vaxxed or lose your livelihood.”
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#ReasonsYouStayOnTwitter
There are 3:
1.
@yashar
's overall decency and daily education on the greatness of elephants
2.
@jaketapper
's measured tone and highlighting of service men and women
3. Watching otherwise reasonable people lose their minds makes me feel normal
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13/ Even today, he’s working a flight on which he was supposed to deadhead because there was no crew for it. Another was cancelled. Doom doesn’t have secret data of a mass sickout or walkout or formal vaccine protest. But he says the distrust is there for many, and it’s growing.
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I wonder whether somewhere there is a vaxxed + boosted 20-something who just teared up in fear at their positive antigen test & yet touts the resilience of 6-year-olds (cloth) masked for hours daily for ~1.5 years while writing sneering tweets decrying their "anti-mask" parents.
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12/ As far as Southwest’s operational issues, Doom says that SW’s pilot crunch has been an issue for a while now. They’re running so lean that it doesn’t take much to have a downstream effect of cancellations and delays if a few people don’t show for whatever reason.
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It really feels like the same people who say "nobody *ever* said the vaccines stop transmission—they only prevent severe disease" truly, secretly, desperately, in the deep recesses of their minds...still think they stop transmission.
Thread 🧵
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Covid positive. For the anecdote collectors:
First covid infection. J&J vax + Moderna booster (~7 weeks ago). Standard cold symptoms: cough, pretty solid headache (8 Miller High Life's worth) for ~36 hours. Taste/smell just fine. Currently drinking wine.
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Put aside US politics for a moment: What other countries not only mask 2- to 6-year-olds, but do so with such unwavering certitude that the relative material benefits of all-day cloth masking of this cohort *so obviously* outweighs all drawbacks that no discussion is even needed?
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I'm seeing more tweets like this one. Some thoughts:
1. Stop it.
2. We're not "heading into" a Covid uptick. We're almost done with it (peak likely either this or last week).
3. This summer's peak looks like it'll be 60-70% lower than last summer's.
4. Please stop it.
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3/ First, I’ve never met anyone who loves flying like Doom. I loved tactical flying but was never a “must fly” kind of guy (hence, lawyer). He’s different. Doom’s the kind of guy who can tell you the sub-model and equipment on any black dot from 20K feet away.
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4/ You could have knocked us over with a feather when we found out Doom was leaving the Air Force. Every one of us thought he’d do 20+ for sure. Academy guy who breathed flying. But family was more important, and he’d still be able to fly (just not the F-15E anymore).
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2/ To make things easy and protect his anonymity (so I don’t have to keep calling him “dude”), I’m going to give him a call sign for this thread that was not his real call sign in our squadron. His call sign for this thread: “Doom”
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1/ Ok, I just went hunting for reliable data on
#Omicron
that shows it is *likely* to (1) be more lethal than Delta, or (2) evade vaccines. Not musings or hypotheticals or possibilities, which are of course omnipresent, but data. Here's what I found:
Thread🧵🧵🧵
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Steve Kerr cracking me up with the mask antics. Mask up. Mask down so the ref can see his "come on" glower. Mask up. Mask down to smile and hug his players coming off the court. Mask up. Mask down talking through a play on the bench during a TO.
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The instinct to close schools reminds me of learning to land a plane. It's hard to fight the human instinct that “slower = safer”. Not so, of course. There is a speed you must maintain, despite the urge to throttle back when anxious. Open schools are minimum speed.
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EFD, serious person: UK "could see as many as 60,000" monkeypox cases *per day* by 2022 end.
UK's current 7-day average as of yesterday: 0.43 (that's 3 cases total in the past week).
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In case anyone cares (and you probably shouldn't), Covid wastewater in the US has consistently been down ~70-80% year-over-year since mid-May.
Endemicity, thy name is Covid.
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Long Covid generally resolves within months. Symptoms can include loss of smell, persistent cough, fatigue, weakness, difficulty breathing, and--in extremely rare cases--desire for armed warfare, invasion, violation of sovereignty, and rebuilding of the Russian empire.
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EFD, serious person: UK "could see as many as 60,000" monkeypox cases *per day* by 2022 end.
UK's current 7-day average as of this week: 0.00
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Twitter seems to be responding to
@CDCDirector
comments stating that Covid-19 deaths in the United States are rising. I didn't hear the briefing, but I will comment on the contention that Covid-19 deaths are rising:
That contention is wrong. Deaths are not rising.
Thread🧵
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Emotional Two-Act Play:
I. “Father, I desire a treat.”
II. “I am sorry my son, for I have none.”
/fin
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Young millennials, don’t try to co-opt this era either. If you weren’t driving with a portable CD player on the center console playing these songs while the passenger was on “prevent skip” duty, this was not yours. Gen X and geriatric millennials only.
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I first want to congratulate all you Michiganders for coordinating via 9.5-million-person statewide Zoom conference ~3 weeks ago in which you decided to finally start behaving by distancing and wearing masks when before that you were universal scofflaws. Amazing results.
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@PGALIVHotTakes
0% of top 5
6th best LIV finisher down at T43. Much worse than last year despite adding Rahm and Hatton.
Still, much better than The Open when no LIV player was even in shouting distance of the lead (0 top 10 and 2 in top 30).
See? Anyone can draw lines to push a narrative.
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*Today’s
#Covid19
Update Thread*
(data pulled directly from state dashboards)
All graphics contain *7-day averages* for the metrics, but I’ll post the raw counts daily in the second post of the thread as well.
UNITED STATES
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Cases plummeting now. ~121k fewer cases yesterday than last Thursday. Lock it in: Omicron peaked last week.
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Key to a successful statewide mask mandate: (1) implement it after Rt for
#Covid19
cases has peaked and is well on its way (or already) sub-1.0, and (2) take a bow in a few weeks. The late-September press conference practically writes itself...
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Here's a complete list of US states showing a week-over-week increase in reported 7DA
#Covid19
cases:
/end
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This man is 100 times more despicable than he is stupid, which is amazing considering he’s one of the stupidest people I’ve ever encountered.
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Our lunch lasted more than 2 hours, and our conversation (of course) ventured outside 1L prep. I walked her home, then said "I want to see you again, but tomorrow's too long to wait. How about dinner tonight?" Our first (official) date was that same night, 5 years ago today.
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News reports, blue-check tweets, and political reaction to the
#NuVariant
over the coming days/weeks will break down as follows:
98% - Hype, overreaction, sensationalizing
1.5% - "thIs ProVEs tHe vaXx dOeSN't wOrK"
0.5% - Measured analysis driven by known facts and data
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Had to free climb 15 stories and slide into the narrow opening of my office window. There was no mask mandate in the building and ventilation/filtration was dodgy, so elevators and stairs just too risky.
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My son's school goes to full-time in-person learning starting March 1.
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8/ The default of some people (still) to treat a mask like wearing a shirt or shoes blows my mind. If that's the case, why haven't they just been a part of our daily wardrobe forever to save thousands of lives a year? It's an unserious position.
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7/ How many thousands/tens of thousands of children fall into one or more of these buckets: speech delayed, ESL, autistic, hearing loss, Down Syndrome, developmentally delayed, etc.? Do we really think a couple years masking these groups (among others) has no ripple effect?
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9/ Bottom line: I'm glad the dam is breaking politically on masks, even if it comes later than I would've liked.
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I understand gaslighting/clapping seal Twitter's reflexive like or retweet of an utterly moronic, low-info, embarrassing tweet like this. It's "narrative swarm" tactics. But serious people with two brain cells unironically retweeting this drivel should re-examine their lives.
1200 dead of COVID yesterday in Florida.
Not the total for a week or a month, but ONE SINGLE DAY.
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EFD: US
#Covid19
hospitalizations "approaching last winter's crazy Omicron levels."
Last year = 161,833 peak; over 100k for 40 days straight; Pre-wave *low point* in Nov was 45,678
Current level = 45,279
This man lies with such unbelievable ease.
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1. Wastewater is lower than all 3 years.
2. Covid Hospitalizations *much* lower than all 3 years.
3. Covid ED % *much* lower than all 3 years.
4. There were more deaths in 2 days the first winter than there will be this entire month (by a lot).
5. It's not even winter.
It's the worst winter yet. I've never seen so many students or teachers sick with Covid, hospitalized with Covid, missing meetings, missing deadlines, falling behind on work, unable to work, barely functioning, all of them reluctant or scared to protect themselves.
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@andy_murray
6% of Britons think they can train for 4 years and run the 100-meter dash in ~10s flat
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Holy hell, was this an eye-opening experience for me! All I did was *correctly* note the reporting snafu between FL and the CDC (normally 3-day average updated on Tue and today updated a day early and treated as a 2-day average). Attributed no malice.
And boy did folks come out!
The daily case counts for Florida currently posted on the CDC COVID Tracker are incorrect. The current listing states 28,317.
The accurate data are as follows:
Friday, August 6: 21,500
Saturday August 7: 19,567
Sunday, August 8: 15,319
The 3 day average: 18,795
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I've included a chart of HHS data as of 5 minutes ago. Hospitalized with confirmed Covid in Idaho:
Adults: 690
Children: 4
Just over one half of one percent, so not *quite* 1/3 if my math is correct.
1200+ likes. 790+ retweets. Great job, team.
Breaking News from Idaho:
No masks in Schools.
330 new cases in the last 24 hours.
Children now account for a third of COVID hospitalizations.
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“Almost anyone”
Except the very large group who consistently voiced concerns about the second- and third-order effects of these policies likely rippling out for years—and taking perhaps a generation to discover and quantify the full scope.
New data suggest that the damage from shutting down schools has been worse than almost anyone expected
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550+ Likes
250+ Retweets
Not remotely true.
This Jan/Feb, we saw cases near 300K and several days with deaths >4K. Not even close to current numbers. As I've said before: Covid is shitty enough on its own. You don't need to lie and dress it up in a vampire costume. Please stop.
#NEW
The US had the highest number of new cases of COVID-19 on Thursday in over a year.
The US also had the highest number of deaths from COVID in over a year.
Both numbers were the highest in the world. Unvaccinated people are driving the Delta variant surge.
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Saw this story, and I swear to you I thought it was from ~2 months ago as I read:
"Covid-19 cases will likely surge again in the U.S. as the highly contagious B.1.1.7 variant takes hold across the country"
Nope. Dated today. Yowza.
Brief thread 🧵🧵🧵
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Thank you to all the folks wishing me well, but I'm pretty much golden at this point. Symptoms started Monday evening, peaked yesterday, and are essentially gone as I'm typing this. Thus the wine (pinot noir).
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6/ But I feel gaslit by those who stone-faced say that the cohorts of children, esp. those currently 4-7 years old (started pandemic 2-5) masked the entire day will be just fine coming out of the other side of this. Perhaps most will. But...
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Folks, I urge a little caution with the Florida
#Covid19
numbers showing on the CDC right now. FL reports its Sat+Sun+Mon numbers on Mondays, which the CDC *usually* updates on Tuesday for the 3-day span (and divides the total by 3).
Please read this brief thread...
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It is getting tiresome watching media, government, and other Twitter folks present erroneous numbers for certain states’
#Covid19
positive testing percentage.
Many of the Johns Hopkins percentages are flat wrong, and it's the denominator problem (again).
🧵THREAD🧵
1/
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I know we love focusing on aggregate numbers, but given everything we know, increasing vaccine and booster uptake in nursing homes and LTCFs by 0.1% would do more than a 100% under-12 vaccination rate. Doesn't look as cool on charts, but it'll save more lives.
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@jaketapper
To all those wondering "how are they paying for these?" Almost certainly it's the personnel themselves.
In the Air Force, someone in the unit often made a clever or sarcastic challenge coin centered around an odd event.
Folks chip in $10 a pop, and that was that. Ease up!
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5 years ago today my wife and I went on our first date. We had met only once several months prior. I was a student interviewer at my law school, and I interviewed her for admission. She killed it. And that was that, until I received an email nearly 6 months later...
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After ~4 months of gathering and posting state dashboard data, this will be our last day. I’ll still post regularly on Covid data and trends to keep the fancy talking heads honest and provide context to the numbers. But the dashboard-to-pastel graphic pipeline is off.
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Lately, it seems like there has been mass acceptance that the only benefit to the
#Covid19
vaccine is reduced severity post-infection, and that the vaccines do nothing to blunt transmission in the age of the
#DeltaVariant
. The comparator data I see shows otherwise.
🧵Thread🧵
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Just because you are vaccinated does NOT mean you can go in the pool within 30 minutes of eating.
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DAY 1—and a hell of a start. We just hit our lowest % positive in the entire pandemic (3.97%), besting the 3.98% we posted way back in June, which was the only other day under 4% (7-day average).
All our metrics continue to trend downward nicely as well.
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Sigh. I know you know better
@CDCgov
.
I posted a thread (see next tweet) about the "death rise." The *exact same* holds for cases. And % testing positive has dropped week-over-week for 52 days straight. Today's data will (without doubt) make it 53. (Tests matter too!)
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Father-in-law got the word today that he’s cancer-free following treatment.
Happy Friday!
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*Today’s
#Covid19
Update Thread*
Data retrieved directly from state dashboards, and not every state updates its numbers daily.
All graphics are 7-day averages, but today's raw reporting for each metric is in tweet below.
UNITED STATES
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As an aside, thanks again to you all for hanging with me all this time—some of you for more than a year now. I’ve got folks from all sides of the political spectrum that just want data, and hopefully good news to accompany it.
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@kathrynw5
Our Cavalier King Charles Spaniel is an excellent apartment dog. Bergdorf says hello:
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4/ The only persuasive evidence is apparently that which confirms priors. Endpoint-driven nonsense. Data where policies and confounders inherently drive the results. One need only utter the unfalsifiable "it would have been worse without masks," and the team nods along. Auto-win!
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People gave moving speeches, but I don’t really remember them.
But I’ll never forget looking at MadDog, Diablo, Galtzy, Locker, and everyone else who tried to keep it together when Piston’s
#milkshake
brought us all to the yard.
♫ “Lala-la la la.” ♫
#MemorialDayWeekend
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This is not a serious person. Quite possibly the lowest intellect-to-ego ratio of the remaining Branch Covidians.
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One thing to keep in mind: everything we're seeing is with essentially a wide-open society. So, even with Delta + Normal Life, we're still at less than half our hospitalizations and ~1/4 of the daily deaths of last year when so much was still restricted or shut down. (16/n)
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Lack of nuance is why I started tracking & posting Covid data. Worse is the lack of any desire for nuance. And worst of all is the actual striving for a lack of nuance.
Those in the last category above induce clicks and turn profits off useful idiots in the second-to-last.
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It's embarrassing that you're using percent positive (and burying the massive delta between testing denominator over time in your cut off Y-axis) when the self-selection into testing continues to shrink and skew toward the sickest. 300-600 tests--really? Dishonesty is your brand.
@TheLawyerCraig
@KelleyKga
I can't figure out what minimizers like you get out of harming and killing people.
New York.
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2/ We can see that a study from the Catalan schools (Spain) showed that transmission increased with age, and that the youngest cohort showed the lowest transmission despite being the only unmasked group. But that doesn't persuade.
The main finding was of a clear age dependant gradient on transmission within school bubbles
R* = 0.2 in pre-schools up to 0.6 in high schools
4/
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I know I’m pointed in my posts with Zero Covid, but I’m mostly pissed at the high-follower types spreading misinformation and clear hyperbole.
Posts like the one below make me legitimately sad though, and my heart breaks for all of those who have such skewed perspectives.
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When you’ve previously hit ~30k Covid patients in the ICU, 1.5k can seem low.
It is. That’s because it’s near all-time pandemic lows and less than half of anything we saw in 2021, and has barely moved despite several weeks of increasing cases and positive testing %.
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@COVID19Tracking
*Today’s
#Covid19
Update Thread*
(tests, cases, deaths, hospitalizations, ICU, and % testing positive as of Today, 1 week, 2 weeks, 1 month, and 2 months ago—data from
@COVID19Tracking
for the last time!)
UNITED STATES
(Thoughts and region-by-region breakdown in thread below)
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EFD: amplifies "realistic" projections of 100K worldwide
#monkeypox
cases by August and 1M by Sept & UK alone could see 60K *per day* by 2022 end
Reality: 69K cumulative cases worldwide as of 10/4 & UK currently at 2.7 daily (note: not thousand, just 2.7)
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Is this
@CDCgov
study just lining up counties irrespective of region and classifying as either mandated or not? Where do we think most of the non-mandate districts are located? Perhaps in places already riding a rocket upwards? A couple ideas to confirm this exciting mask news...
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Still hands down the most reliable ratio on Twitter, whether replies locked or not. The term “gaslight” fails to capture the degree to which she has perfected the art.
Nearly 9 out of 10 respondents say schools have become too politicized, following a year of political attacks on teachers waged by politicians stoking culture wars and banning books for political gain.
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I've been vaccinated for months. But if I were to need critical care in a stressed hospital system that had to triage, medical professionals should make that decision based solely on the exact same factors and ethics that applied prior to 2021.
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