That Weather Guy
@That_WeatherGuy
Followers
557
Following
39
Media
354
Statuses
759
20+ year amateur weather dude! Sharing and talking all things weather. (90% tropics talk) 🌧🗣📸 (Thoughts Are My Own)
Inside the Eyewall
Joined August 2023
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
İran
• 491178 Tweets
Kyle
• 249452 Tweets
サッカー
• 122212 Tweets
Enrique Márquez
• 103821 Tweets
Sunderland
• 100899 Tweets
オフサイド
• 97058 Tweets
スペイン
• 92599 Tweets
Francia
• 81347 Tweets
Emily
• 65050 Tweets
Julian
• 56023 Tweets
#ErdoğanınYanındayız
• 54591 Tweets
Ekrem İmamoğlu
• 52055 Tweets
Mascherano
• 50703 Tweets
Ron Paul
• 45158 Tweets
Arabia
• 41834 Tweets
Game Informer
• 26849 Tweets
#FRAARG
• 24893 Tweets
Angola
• 24435 Tweets
#SonÇağrı
• 22027 Tweets
Hepimiz Erdoğan'ız
• 20786 Tweets
Argentins
• 18565 Tweets
Joshua Cheptegei
• 17648 Tweets
準々決勝進出
• 16778 Tweets
Equi
• 14820 Tweets
Simeone
• 14676 Tweets
Zenón
• 14197 Tweets
Almada
• 11291 Tweets
Mateta
• 10329 Tweets
Pinned Tweet
My
#2024HurricaneSeason
prediction;
🟢 20-25 Named Storms 🌀
🟡 10-14 Hurricanes 🌀
🔴 5-7 Major Hurricanes 🌀
🔵 Ace: 200-240
A strengthening La Nina and well above average water temps across the Atlantic, we're in for the long haul for a busy season.
0
2
4
Next week is going to be challenging for
#Lee
depending on how strong he is. He could very well bulldoze right through the trough that's going to pick him up. Some of the ensembles have shown a subtle western track today. Hurricanes of this strength create their own environments.
39
72
630
5am Update 🌀
Hurricane
#Lee
weakened to category 3 with 115 mph & 962 mlb. Looking at current satellite, he looks to be rebuilding his core again with deep convection firing around the center. He'll be moving over high ocean heat content on Monday & Tuesday. Possible cat 5
6
55
201
5am Update 🌀
Hurricane
#Lee
is holding steady this morning with 105 mph/960 mlb pressure. An eye wall replacement cycle is underway, which will expand the wind field and form a much bigger eye. This ERC is important for how strong Lee can get today through Tuesday as the storm
8
19
132
🌀 11am Update on
#HurricaneLee
. The storm is downgraded to Cat 1 with 90 mph. It is still much a dangerous hurricane with a large windfield. Lee is starting to lose its tropical characteristics as stronger shear and dry air are getting onto the system. TS warnings, watches,
5
24
83
5pm Update 🌀
Hurricane
#Lee
is still a Category 3 with 115 mph/958 mlb pressure. Looking at recent satellite and Lee might finally be restrengthening. New convection is trying to wrap around the eye again with strong thunderstorms on the west side. But that SW Shear is still
5
6
57
🌀 5am Update for
#HurricaneLee
. Winds at 100 mph, moving N at 9 mph. Lee looks like 💩 which is very good news. Very high confidence that Lee stays offshore of New England, but tropical storm winds are still expected along the coast.
⚠️ Tropical storm/hurricane watches and
3
12
48
5am Update 🌀
120 mph/950 mlb
Hurricane
#Lee
is struggling a bit this morning with the eye less distinct than last night. It seems like inner core changes are the issue. Lee can't seem to consolidate his core like before, which led to becoming a cat 5. Their still a chance for
5
10
47
@COStormChasers
It's not hype even the national hurricane center at 5pm said their is uncertainty on a northward turn next week. A few ensembles have been leaning a bit west. Yes the global models take turn him north but the global take their information from their ensembles.
3
2
44
11am Update 🌀
Hurricane hunters are finding Hurricane
#Lee
a bit stronger with a bigger but ragged eye. It looks like the eye wall replacement cycle is almost complete, and the wind shear looks to be relaxing with the outflow becoming better established. I'm very curious to
1
9
37
The forecast guidance for
#Lee
is interesting, it tells that the models have low confidence on where it's going down the road. That turn is coming, but how far west or east it goes remains to be seen and what impacts anyone will see.
The thing about hurricanes is 2/3 they take
5
5
35
@RidenourDamian
If that trough doesn't dig deep enough to catch him then yeah he's going west. Because if that high pressure to his east builds back in to the west, that's a problem.
1
2
31
Hurricane
#Lee
is not playing around tonight! Strong thunderstorms have wrapped around the eyewall, and the eye is so much better defined since the rapid intensification to category 5 a few days ago. Can he make it back to cat 5 again? Absolutely! There is plenty of high ocean
0
7
32
@RidenourDamian
First, never trust models. Their always wrong. They are always correcting themselves. Gathering data. Second, I've been through dozens of hurricanes over the past 20 years. I learn from experience, Ian, willma, Irma to name a few. Third, hurricanes 2/3 of the time are either on
7
2
27
It's time for New England to pay attention to
#Lee
, and this isn't to hype the storm up or spread fear. It's about spreading awareness for what's possibly coming. It doesn't matter if Lee makes landfall in New England or Nova Scotia. The impacts will be big and significant. For
2
4
28
5am Update 🌀
Hurricane
#Lee
remains a Category 3 storm with 115 mph/948 mlb pressure. It is still in the middle of an eye wall replacement cycle, double eye walls being observed by the hurricane hunters. Slight strengthening is still expected, but I doubt it now.
Beginning
0
9
26
Euro and GFS Ensembles on
#Lee
show him staying north of the islands and then taking that curve. How close to the US, he gets remains to be seen.
4
4
25
5pm Update 🌀
Hurricane
#Lee
is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle that will only broaden the already large windfield. Maybe slight strengthening could occur after the ERC is complete.
The 12Z Euro brings the hurricane pretty close to the Massachusetts coast like the
1
3
23
Very interesting 12Z run with the Euro...
#Invest95L
or future Hurricane Lee looks to stall for a few days? As if deciding where to go? 👀
Then, a trough that's supposed to pull it north and away from the US is gone.. Which leaves a bunch of windows 🪟 open.
1
8
20
The signals keep getting louder and louder 📈📈 for possible development in the Caribbean for the first week of November. The GFS has been throwing a hurricane towards Florida run after run. The Caribbean still has a tremendous amount of fuel left. KEEP AN EYE ON THIS 👀 👀
1
4
21
It doesn't get more perfect than this... 🤤 super typhoon
#Bolaven
has reached a level of intensity that many tropical cyclones hope and dream to achieve: the maximum potential hurricane intensity. Bolaven, you're going down in the record books bro 📚 👏
0
3
19
5am Update 🌀
The risk of seeing substantial impacts from Hurricane
#Lee
is increasing for New England. Both 0Z GFS & Euro show Lee much closer to the Massachusetts coast. This would bring very strong winds, heavy rains, and surge from Maine, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts.
1
5
20
Lee could be the strongest hurricane in decades for New England. The more west Lee goes, the more significant the impacts will be. Get prepared now even if it does stay offshore. Material things can be replaced, lives cannot.
1
7
19
5pm Update 🌀
Hurricane
#Lee
is strengthening once again now a Category 3 with 120 mph/954 mlb pressure per hurricane hunter data. It looks like Lee is finally getting his act together, with the shear backing down. The eye is starting to clear and warm as strong thunderstorms
0
7
18
#Lee
is looking seriously impressive on satellite this afternoon with deep robust convection rotating around its eyewall. He could very well peak tonight or early morning tomorrow as Cat 5. An absolute beast in the making. 👀
12Z models keep him off the east coast so far. 🤞
0
5
19
Hurricane
#Otis
looks like a buzz saw tonight 😳 the fastest rapid intensification of any EPAC Hurricane(beating 2015's Patricia 75 mph record) with 80 mph increase in 12 hrs... That eyewall will be like an EF4 tornado along the coast.
1
7
19
LOOK AT THE LIGHTING INSIDE
#Lee
!!! That's the sheer power of this hurricane. Just incredible and jaw dropping. 🤤🥹
0
2
16
#HurricaneLee
is a shell of its former self tonight. Once a Category 5 hurricane with 165 mph winds, now becoming extra tropical as he heads towards New England & Atlantic Canada. The book is about to be closed. 📖
1
2
16
@pmgaffney
He's going to slow down just of the Bahamas then a dip in the jet stream is going to scoop him up and turn him north. Then off he goes! Hopefully we'll off the East coast
1
3
16
11pm Update 🌀
Hurricane
#Lee
is strengthening tonight. He's back up to Major Hurricane status with a pretty good defined eye with deep convection around the eyewall. NHC says the peak is around 140 mph before weakening begins, but I say 150-160 mph. Lee could briefly hit cat 5
1
2
14
The 12Z CMC is interesting this afternoon with a "potential" tropical cyclone nearing the Caribbean in about 2 weeks after
#Lee
is gone. I always say 10+ days out is fantasy, but GFS Ensembles & Euro Ensembles are picking up on something forming in the MDR in that time frame.
3
1
15
Hurricane
#Lee
might give us one more impressive bout of rapid intensification Monday and Tuesday as he goes over high ocean heat content just north of the islands.
The HAFS-B model shows this with Lee dropping to 912 mlb. This would put him in the Top 10 most powerful
3
2
13
#Invest97L
has the potential to become a significant hurricane on its way towards Central America. The latest HWRF run shows that. There's lots to watch.
2
3
14
Hurricane
#Lee
tonight is going full BEAST mode! We could have a Cat 5 very soon per recon data.
0
2
12
🌀 5am Update on
#HurricaneLee
, holding at 85 mph winds. Moving N at 16 mph. Tropical storm winds extend out 320 miles, and hurricane winds 105 miles. Some hurricane gusts could graze Cape Cod as the storm passes to the East. Surge will be around 1-3 ft along the coasts. The
1
5
13
#Invest97L
is at 90%🔴 for 2/7 days of development. The next name is
#Nigel
. Could become a major hurricane in the Atlantic before coming close to
#Bermuda
next week. 👀
1
2
12
October looks to be busy in the Caribbean with an MJO passing over. The month can produce some big hurricanes like Wilma(2005), Michael(2018), and then November gets shut down. 🚫
1
3
11
Super Typhoon
#Bolaven
remains an exceptionally powerful category 5 storm with 180 mph winds and 905 mb estimated pressure.
0
3
11
5pm Update 🌀
Hurricane
#Lee
is a little bit weaker down to 150 mph. He may have peaked last night in intensity. Shear & dry air today have unexpectedly halted any further strengthening for at least 48 hrs. He could restrengthening as his passing north of the Leeward Islands
1
3
10
Both Euro and GFS curve
#Invest95L
away from the US. But Euro does it faster while GFS takes it much closer to the East Coast then curving out. 👀 Big hurricane down the road.
(Anything beyond 10 days is fantasy land)
1
2
12
11am Update 🌀
Hurricane
#Lee
is maintaining category 3 status with 115 mph/957 mlb per recon data. His pressure dropped slightly. The hurricane hunters did mention intense thunderstorms with mesovortices within his eyewall. But on satellite, he's having another bad day.
1
1
10
A look at
#Invest95L
this morning; thunderstorms are starting to increase with that spin. 👀
Good news so far, all models show future Lee curving out to sea.
More significant development nearing the islands something to watch for them.
2
0
11
Evening look at Hurricane
#Lee
and down to category 2 with 110 mph/962 mlb pressure with hurricane hunter inside the storm now. Still expected to restrengthen back to cat 4 Monday or Tuesday.
0
3
10
#Otis
has developed a fully closed inner core in just 6 hours... this is very concerning for the coast. The models completely missed the rapid intensification.
0
5
10
Hurricane
#Lidia
is approaching the western coast of Mexico tonight as a powerful category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds. Just this morning, she was a category 1... Some serious damage will take place along the coast.
0
0
10
What makes this even more heartbreaking to see the damage from
#Otis
they had zero warning that category 5 was coming(rapid intensification was not on the table 12 hrs before landfall) and
#Acapulco
never experienced a cat 5... 😔😔
Scenes of terrible damage in Acapulco, Mexico after direct hit from category 5 Hurricane Otis. These are a few pictures being shared by the media this morning. The worst storm surge should have been from the airport south toward San Andres Playa Encantada
60
796
3K
0
1
10
All the hurricane intensity models on TS
#Lee
show one hell of a storm north of the Leeward Islands. 🙏 The last time we had a hurricane of this strength in the Atlantic was Dorian(2019). I think both HWRF & HMON are holding back, I'm going with the HAFS-A/B with intensity.
0
3
8
Evening look at
#HurricanNigel
, and he's getting that look.. 👀 on its way to major status(cat 3+). Bermuda looks safe and out of its path.
2
2
10
A rare
#medicane
has developed over the eastern Mediterranean Sea that looks to make landfall in Libya. They can sometimes be tropical or subtropical depending on their environment. Usually their not strong staying within the tropical storm force range, but a few have reached cat
0
4
8
@KatrinaCA
The stronger a hurricane is the more it'll feel the upper level winds thus turning it more north in latitude. The weaker it is, it'll feel the low level winds and go more west into the Caribbean. But that's not always the case. A strong blocking high can cause a strong hurricane
0
1
9
The GFS is sniffing👃something in the Caribbean on the last week of September. Could be a Central American Gyre(CAG) setting up? As we head into October, their more common and tend to lift north into the Gulf. So far, no other models show this.
2
2
9
Evening look at
#invest95L
and not much happening on satellite. 60% 🟠 for 2 days and 90%🔴 for 7 days. Future Lee could get pretty strong down the line. Also 18Z GFS shows a "potential landfall" in North Carolina but I always say 10 days out is fantasy land, things will change.
3
1
9
@SummerLuvX0
Their is a dip in the jet steam or cold front that's going to pick him up and move the hurricane north. Well to our east.
1
0
9
Both NE & NW eyewall of
#Lee
have 140 knots winds, which would put Lee at Category 5 intensity for 11pm advisory.
Some of these drops are insane... 180 knots, 155 knots, 168 knots that's 180-210 mphs. But those are a couple thousand feet above the water.
On the surface,
0
2
8
Morning TS
#Lee
Update 🌀
Lee is quickly strengthening this morning, winds at 65 mph. Should be a hurricane today.
In the short term, Lee stays north of the islands, but long term the forecast is challenging. Some models curve him out while others, not so much.
1
2
8
Visible satellite on
#invest95L
, could be see TD or even TS
#Lee
at 11 AM?? 👀
It looks like the low level center is beneath some of the bigger thunderstorms. And that spin! So close now.
1
1
8
The
#tropics
aren't going to sleep just yet... 60%🟠 for development(next 7 days) for future
#Invest97L
with Central America as the main target. Just how strong can it become before landfall is important for any impacts. Iota in 2020 exploded into cat 4 in the same area...
0
1
8
12Z are in for
#Lee
and GFS, ICON and CMC has tracked closer for New England next weekend. 12Z Euro is loading in. Even if Lee doesn't make landfall, coastal impacts will be big; rain, wind, and waves.
1
1
8
@LightninBill90
I didn't mean literally bulldoze through it... if the trough is too weak or too far north and that high pressure builds more west, Lee could come closer to the east coast.
1
0
8
#Invest97L
looks poised to become
#Nigel
within the next day or two. Good news with this one, all global models so far curve him out to sea. 🌊🐠
1
0
8
#HurricaneLee
has gone post tropical this morning. Holding at 80 mph, landfall in Nova Scotia later today than he's outta here by tomorrow.
0
2
7
Morning
#Invest95L
Update 🌀
Little change overnight, still expected to be TD very soon(most likely today) then hopefully 🤞 passing north of the Leeward Islands.
Now Bermuda 🇧🇲 has to keep close eyes 👀 on
#Lee
with models bringing him very close to the island.
0
2
6
5pm Update 🌀
115 mph/946 mlb
Hurricane
#Lee
remains at category 3 this afternoon with little change in intensity. Hurricane hunters are finding the storm growing in size however. Starting tomorrow it will begin the weakening trend as he merges with a trough later in the week
0
3
6
Well, this is escalating quickly... 😳 now the question is how fast can it consolidate before hitting Central America this weekend. It would likely be tagged
#Invest97L
later tonight or tomorrow.
0
1
7
#HurricaneLee
will bring several hazards to New England and Nova Scotia on Saturday and Sunday Lee is gone.
🟢 The greatest amount of rainfall will be northern Maine where up to 3" is possible and Nova Scotia as well for flash flooding. The coasts could see 1" to 2".
🔴 The
1
3
7
Newly formed
#Invest98L
will have quite the favorable setup as it travels across the MDR. Low shear and plenty of high ocean heat content make this one to watch. 👀 Some dry air does look to impede development down the road as humidity levels drop a bit.
1
1
7
I've never seen a more perfect hurricane then
#Jova
right now, she is a BEAST! No doubt a Category 5 at 11pm advisory tonight.
0
2
5
@David24696498
And that's why hurricane hunters are needed more than ever. I respect everything they do.
0
0
7
12Z Euro showing
#invest95L
or Hurricane Lee getting pulled north and away from the US. 👏👏
An approaching trough will pick him up and off he goes. But he is going to be a MONSTER. Don't doubt he'll be a Top 5 ACE Hurricane. 👀👀
2
0
7
@WMN4SRVL
The reason why Lee will turn north and not go west is a trough that's going to pick him up. Buy how strong it is and how far south it dips is key.
1
0
7
The HWRF is still holding on to the idea that
#Invest97L
will become a major hurricane. Sooner or later, it'll come to its senses. 97L is gradually losing support down to 40% development.
0
1
7
Evening look at
#invest95L
, we could have a TD anytime now at 90/100% 🔴 for 2/7 days.
Their's good agreement on the models that
#Lee
will move north of the Leeward Islands, but if the HWRF is right, the islands will feel something...
Then you got zombie 🧟♀️ storms (Franklin).
1
1
7
@Timothy29238019
Yes, preparations should be underway. Nova Scotia will take the brunt unfortunately.
0
0
7
I mean, could it be possible...? In November?? The models have been sniffing for the first week of the month, BUT this would be HISTORIC and one POWERFUL Hurricane.
0
4
6
@NSPerspective
Thank you! At least minimal cat 1 or strong tropical storm. Lee will be merging with a cold front and that's going to increase the windfield. I've seen hurricanes hitting Scotia and they pack a punch with the winds. Fiona last year was pretty bad for you guys.
1
1
6
#Invest97L
doesn't look like much, but so much can change in 12-24 hrs.
#Otis
had taught us that intensity forecast has a long way to go still. I wouldn't write this storm off.
0
1
6
One thing I think all the models agree on;
#Invest95L
is going to be a powerhouse Hurricane Lee as it passes the islands 🤞to the north.
All those red line circling the storm show great out flow channels, helping it breathe and intensify even more.
1
1
6
The 12z GFS 500mb run is interesting with future
#Invest97L
with a low tropical storm in Central America BUT then restrengthens into a strong hurricane, kinda meanders about south of Cuba then maybe gets picked up by an approaching trough. Lots of uncertainty still...
2
1
5
Day 867 of tracking Lee... 😒
🌀 5pm advisory on
#HurricaneLee
has the storm at 85 mph, moving N at 15 mph. Tropical storm force winds extend 345 miles, and hurricane winds out 105 miles.
#Lee
is a BIG hurricane by Atlantic standards. New Brunswick looks to take the full brunt.
0
0
5