Is anything more cringe than linked in?

Thanks - this is well-articulated. The problem is that the glue factory outcome is still within the range of possibilities. The technologists may not get the concepts exactly right, but they are essentially describing the glue factory. Is the economics position simply that it may not happen? Unlikely to happen? We don’t know?

It’s clear to me that those complaining about government cuts to programs they highly value have never worked in the private sector. There, efficiency and changing priorities lead to layoffs and cutbacks in budgets all the time. When you think about it, it’s actually quite shocking that the USG never seems to lay off anyone and never cuts budgets. Everything that started is worth it for infinite time!

@SashaGusevPosts How is this different from saying we tip 20%, when in fact, with a 10% tax, it’s 15% of the total bill?

@sebatlab Imagine all this time when we thought we tipped 20%, but we were only tipping 15% because there was a 10% tax and we calculated the tip on the original bill. JFC.

@HistoryBoomer I think Musk is ‘achieve goals by all means necessary’. His goal is trimming government fat and he knows there will be protests (because all fat is still received by somebody), so he’s gone full MAGA to whip up political cover.

@PhilWMagness This is clear in comparing tariffs with no tariffs. But is there anything to the argument that replacing a $1 in income tax revenue with $1 in tariffs revenue? Including dynamic effects like investment movements and exchange rate adjustments?

Yes, the situation was very different. But you don’t need 20 years of calm to sign a peace treaty. Anyway, I’m not advocating that the US pressure Israel into anything. What got me going is the idea that the US can’t. That’s utterly false. Before Trump even became president, he mumbled something about neither side liking what he would do if they don’t stop the Gaza war, and they stopped immediately. The US represents a quarter of Israeli exports, but we literally wouldn’t notice if all of it stopped tomorrow because it’s less than 1% of US trade both ways. The US tech sector will do just fine without Israeli startups but not vice versa. If US vetos in the security council stopped, Israel would become a legal pariah state. Israeli GDP is half of Saudi GDP, and only a little larger than Iran or Egypt. Yes they have nukes, and nukes mean you don’t lose an existential war, but nukes won’t make your life better if your biggest international supporter and trading partner turns the screws on you. You would do a lot of things you hate to keep that partner on side - just like Canada and Mexico just did. That’s the meaning of asymmetric influence and power.

@rogtron @dilanesper Israel signed a peace treaty with Egypt less than 6 years after the Yom Kippur war.

@alz_zyd_ I thought the political fight was more about debanking…

@jaygirimd @NIH @petegroen @djc795 @adnanalkhouli @PennCardiology @CMichaelGibson @PennLDI A lot of the indirect costs are fixed/sunk (labs, buildings, machines already exist and paid for) so to that extent these overheads act like lump sum subsidies to fungible university budgets.

@dilanesper @darvas475 That’s mixing ‘we have no influence’ with ‘we shouldn’t do it’.

There are points here about whether the US can and should exert pressure on Israel and separately whether that pressure if it materializes can influence Israeli actions. Starting with the last point first, American actions can totally influence Israeli actions within existential limits. So no, the Israelis will never accept a 1-state solution because it violates the raison d’etre of their country. And the US probably couldn’t have prevented Israeli military action on 10/8. But could the US force Israel to abandon settlement policy and agree to a 2-state solution even with security risks? Absolutely! I mean, nearly half of Israelis already want that. Trump told them to stop it and they did immediately. Should the US exert the kind of pressure above? Opinions differ: allies, democracy, intel, tech, terrorism on the one side, Palestinian suffering and Israeli bad faith on the other. Probably other things I’m missing. Can the US exert the kind of pressure above? I doubt it. Netanyahu came to the US, dissed the relatively popular president of the United States in the United States by having Congress invite him to address them, to applause from both sides of the isle. Politicians bring up their support of Israel during congressional races that have nothing to do with foreign policy. AIPAC successfully primaries two anti-Israel Democrats in the last election. This is not intel and tech. But see my point above about ‘should’

@dilanesper Also a reminder that people will put up with shitty living conditions because they don’t want to abandon what they believe is theirs.

@ArmandDoma It’s a price control. Great for those who can get it at the controlled price, shitty for everyone else.

@HistoryBoomer Back in the comfortable debate confines of classical conservative vs classical liberal 🙂

@JeffreyRMillman Reducing a fungible subsidy to university budgets will kill biomedical research? I don’t think so.

@arghavan_salles It’s just capping a subsidy to university budgets. There are more requests for NIH grants than what the NIH can fund. First order effect on research is essentially zero.