Yield Curve
@TenYearNote
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"Just close the f-cking door" -Chairman Powell .
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"Electricity was going to change everything. They were right. It did change everything, but the time to get out of electricity stocks was 1910."
-John Templeton
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"We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid."
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Whenever Im frustrated about life in the US I find solace in knowing it could be worse...we could be in the UK
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"US real 10Y rates are approaching 2.3% (based on 5Y/5Y TIPS), the highest in more than a decade when compared to recent lows in Dec'23-Jan'24 of ~1.6%. Indeed, real rates have consistently exceeded 1% for the last 18 months, and yet,
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Imagine holding civilian hostages and then complaining that you got mowed down.
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Lessons from Fintwit today:
Yield curve flattening is worrisome.
Yield curve inverting is worrisome.
Yield curve steepening is worrisome.
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"20% of respondents aged 18-29 think that the Holocaust is a myth. An additional 30% of young Americans said they do not know whether the Holocaust is a myth."
What the fuck is going on in this country?
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"$43bn of investment-grade debt raised on Tuesday. Twenty-nine companies issued debt, which marked the busiest single sales day for the market on record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg."
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"Conspiracy theories about a shocking institutional failure often take hold when an alternative explanation—incompetence—is unsatisfying."
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"I'm calling for 75bps emergency cut with another 75bps cut for Sep meeting, and that's minimum."
-Snoop Dogg
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Back in my day, had to wear a miner's headlamp to read research at night on the bus
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"We estimate $4.8tn of notional open interest across equities will roll off on the 21-Jun expiry. This includes $3.4tn of indices, $716bn of ETFs and $646bn of single stock options...the 2nd largest expiry of all time, with potential to become bigger over the next 3 trading days"
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"US Office prices are -20% from peak. 'Unprofitable Tech' is down -60% from peak. The average price of CCCs in the US/EU is 87c/82c. Tightening has had consequences...Dispersion is high. Equity shorts have generated more YTD alpha than longs despite the 'strong market".
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"Continuous efforts - not strength or intelligence - is the key to unlocking your potential"
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Candace Owens going full antisemite...was actually on my bingo card.
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If everyone is long, who is left to buy?
"S&P 500 companies executed $237bln worth of repurchases in Q1..Over the last 5 years S&P 500 stocks have repurchased $4.8 Trillion worth of shares (~$1 Trillion per year over 5 years) and $7.6 Trillion in the past 10 years."
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to private capital - with liquidity drainage, inverted yield curves and rising real rates threatening to deflate proliferating asset bubbles. And yet, after almost two years of an inverted yield curve (2/10) and positive real rates, none of these predictions have come to pass"
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there is no evidence of any meaningful (or even mild) dislocations in either financial or real economies. What does it mean? It was not long ago that strategists were ominously warning of troubles ahead - from tech valuations and leveraged loans to high yield, commercial RE
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I think
@British_Airways
still thinks it's a premier carrier, operates like a budget carrier. Absolute trash.
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I drank with Jack Daniels. I knew Jack Daniels. Jack Daniels was a friend of mine...you're no Jack Daniels.
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