I'm excited to be working with
@TCMLLC
& to bring the TML Model Portfolio to fruition! This is a service of my passion for finding
#TrueMarketLeaders
, studying their big moves, capturing the move while applying a set of rules, (1/3)
Nasdaq broke below the 40-week SMA for the first time since reclaiming it on 4/17/2020. To get an idea of what happened in the past when this index broke below the 40-wk line, let us take a look at what has happened since the secular bull market started from the March 2009 low.
$PLTR almost tripled from its IPO base of 11.42 in four weeks. It has now consolidated for four weeks, finishing at all-time weekly closing high. It may be working on a flag pattern here. See if it rebounds on volume.
Growth leaders pull back in and around the 21-day EMA. See if they find support and bounce or turn lower to test the 50-day/10-week line:
$DOCU $ZS $DXCM $TWLO $DDOG $LULU $TDOC $IPHI $TTD $CHGG $COUP $WIX $NFLX $VRTX $NOW $CMG $ZM $SHOP $PTON $FSLY $SE $CRWD
Strong earnings gap ups on huge volume to watch:
$FSLY +46% on 7x vol
$TWLO +40% on 8x vol
$CHGG +32% on 13x vol
$DDOG +24% on 6x vol
$PTON +16% on 5x vol
$WIX +14% on 3x vol
$PYPL +14% on 3x vol
Nasdaq logs a Day 8 Follow-through Day (FTD) as it gains 1.73% on heavier volume vs yesterday. The index closed just below the 50-day SMA.
@IBDinvestors
shifts Current Outlook to Confirmed Uptrend.
$QQQ $SPY
$TSLA has been consolidating quietly and is now six weeks in a new base (502.49 std pivot). Potential early entry if it can break above its descending trend line.
Major indexes showed strong gains towards the close.
S&P 500 triggers a follow-through day action with a 1.66% gain on heavier volume. Nasdaq finishes at 1.24% but still below the 50-day.
@IBDinvestors
shifts outlook back to "Confirmed Uptrend" from "Uptrend Under Pressure."
$ROKU 44% deep cup forms a 12% deep handle (462.99 std pivot) with 3 tight weekly closes along the handle. Watch if it can bounce from here above last week's high.
$SQ is now 8 weeks in its current consolidation and may be working on a handle after reclaiming the 10-week line in the prior week. Standard pivot at 283.19 unless handle forms.
Nasdaq (+2.76%) and S&P 500 (+2.02%) rallied on heavier volume vs yesterday, triggering a Follow-Through Day.
@IBDinvestors
shifts Current Outlook to "Confirmed Uptrend".
$QQQ $SPY
Nasdaq (+3.41%) and S&P 500 (+1.89%) log strong gains as S&P 500 reclaims the 200-day SMA.
Volume surge towards the close helps trigger Follow-through day (FTD) for both indexes.
@IBDinvestors
shifts the Current Outlook to "Confirmed Uptrend."
$TSLA pulls back to the 50-day line on light volume for the first time since breaking out of its early stage base through 502.49. It closed just below the 10-week line and may be working on a flat base (900.40 std pivot). On watch if it rebounds from here.
$NIO recently pulled back to the 21-day EMA after undercutting the top of its base at 57.20. It is now consolidating for 5 weeks and may be working on a base-on-base pattern. See if it can rebound from here and through resistance at around 64.60.
$TSLA is now 5 weeks in a possible flat base / high, tight flag pattern as it consolidates on light volume after doubling in 8 weeks in a prior uptrend. Watch if it can reclaim the 21-day EMA then clear 884.49 and recent high of 900.40.
$NIO pulls back to around the 21-day EMA on light volume, just below the cup base's pivot of 57.20. Watch for a bounce from here to reclaim the 57.20 pivot.
Select list of
#TrueMarketLeaders
that finished at all-time weekly closing high: $LVGO $DOCU $ZS $AMD $PINS $SQ $TWLO $IPHI $ETSY $TDOC $CHGG $FSLY $NVDA $NOW $SQ $CMG
Follow the moves of these leaders at
#TickerMonkey
#TMLmodelPortfolio
+60.36% YTD
$NIO reverses higher after finding support at the 50-day line for the first time since breaking out of its first stage cup with handle. It may be working on the right side of a new base. On watch if it can follow-through next week.
With the uptrend under pressure & the lack of setups, caution is warranted on initiating new positions on growth stocks. See if new bases will develop in the next few weeks.
$QQQ $SPY $IWM
A number of leading growth stocks broke below the 10-week line, mostly on heavy volume. They will likely need some time to repair their charts, perhaps form a new base.
$TWLO $ETSY $SHOP $CHGG $TTD $COUP $WIX $DXCM
$PINS shakes out to the 21-day EMA then closes the week back within the range of its earlier earnings gap up (+26.92% on 7x avg volume). Finished down for the week but closed near the top of the week's range. Look for upside follow-through.
Nasdaq triggers day 5 follow-through day after holding above last Friday's pink rally day. This marks the 5th FTD since the November 2021 high.
@IBDInvestors
shifts Current Outlook to "Market in Confirmed Uptrend."
$QQQ $SPY $IWM
$CRWD is now in a 6-week consolidation and may be working on a double-bottom base (116.18 std pivot). On watch if it can break above the base's descending trend line.