The Conservative Income Investor
@TCII_Blog
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Ultra long-term investor tweeting about stocks and investment philosophies that may benefit you. Subscribe to my Patreon for real-time investment disclosures.
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In 1902, the NYSE began trading stock in Philip Morris & Co. Ltd. This was the greatest investment opportunity in the history of the United States, with 247,500,000% returns to date. The dividends have been so extreme you'd own the company 5x over if you tried to reinvest.
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Charlie Munger warns of inflation. Then, 40-year high inflation ensues.
He warns of investing in Russia. Then, a war breaks out.
He warns of investing in crypto. Then, Enron-sized fraud follows.
And this is his predictive track record in his late 90s. Truly exceptional.
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Autozone $AZO has repurchased so much stock that its share count has declined from 71 million (2006) to 20 million. Organic profits only grow at 8.5% but every single excess dollar gives owners more of the pie. Hence, shareholders reap 17% long-term annualized returns.
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In 1937, Benjamin Graham recommended Coca-Cola $KO stock 18 years after its IPO on the basis that it had no debt, was scalable with recognition, and was growing over 20%. As we sit here looking at Alphabet $GOOGL stock 18 years after the Google IPO, it sounds a bit familiar, no?
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After meeting Bill Gates in 1991, Warren Buffett bought 100 shares of Microsoft $MSFT as a "tracker position" to get the annual report in the mail. He hasn't bought any more since then. Nevertheless, the investment has compounded at 20% and turned $6,500 into $2.5 million today.
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Charlie Munger was one of America's very best. He served in WWII. He assisted in building a nearly trillion-dollar company from the ground up. His amicus legal briefs changed laws. He gave tons of money away. He was the rare combo of rationality and generosity. RIP good sir.
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Since 1989, Coca-Cola's dividend has grown from $0.02 to $0.44 quarterly, or about 9.8% annually. For the investor that has reinvested those dividends? 13.0% annual income growth. A $1,000 $KO dividend income stream in 1989 is now $56,000 in annual dividends. Compounding works.
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Abbott Labs $ABT is one of the best investments of all time, compounding at 14.4% over the past 50 years to turn $10k into $8.5 million. And yet, there was a decade where it only delivered 1.8% returns. Diversification and dividends are how you compensate for the inevitable wait.
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Stocks with hefty dividends and single digit P/E ratios are perpetually underrated (and therefore undervalued). Dividend-paying stocks with a P/E ratio below 10 have provided 13.7% annual returns since 1990. Margin of safety and outperformance. Wealth comes from what is ignored.
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At a 1993 lecture, Buffett compared Procter & Gamble vs. Coca-Cola vs. McDonalds. He ended by saying, "Own all three and you'll be fine." $30,000 into those stocks would be $742,000 today for 11.2% compounding. Worst year was 14% decline in 2000. Dividends would be $17k per year.
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Charlie Munger is stepping down as Chaiman of Daily Journal. Sad but incredible that he took a dying legal newspaper business and turned it into a legal software powerhouse with side bets. He compounded at 13.1% annually (vs. S&P 500 at 9.8% and legal publishing industry at 4%).
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Coca-Cola $KO has crossed the 3% dividend yield mark. That is always the threshold for solid returns and building your family's wealth. You get your 3% dividend, your 5-6% growth, and 1% from stock buybacks. It works because actually receiving 10% returns in real life is great.
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The sneaky way to compound is to buy stocks with 7-8% growth paying out dividends of close to 4%. Neither the growth rate nor the dividend gets much attention, but the repetition of these twin interactions for years and years produces prodigious wealth.
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Costco $COST has turned $10k in 2010 into over $100k today. Part of the gains come from the massive special dividends in 2012, 2015, 2017, and 2020, which are responsible for $20k of the final amount (with full reinvestment). Doubling your capital on special dividends alone. Wow.
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I love Southern family offices that have a Coca-Cola $KO position that has been on the balance sheet forever. A $100,000 holding in 1985 has thrown off $4.3 million in dividends (doesn't even include what allocating that cash could have done). It is the empire that funds empires.
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I am re-reading old articles from 2010-2013 about Microsoft $MSFT when it was in the $20s. Many analysts treated the firm like it was a coal miner even though it was earning over $20 billion per year in profit. When cash machines are discussed like bankruptees, it's time to buy.
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Home Depot $HD and Lowe's $LOW are two of the biggest mistakes of omission in my career. They grow better than tech companies in good times, and they hold up earnings better than most would think during soft or weak conditions. They are very unique holdings with hard-to-replicate
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Gotta love America, where you can get rich off toilet paper and diapers. Kimberly-Clark $KMB has now paid out $10,000 in total dividends on a $10,000 investment over the past 12 years with dividends reinvested. Selling the basics, over and over again, is the march to wealth.
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Since 1982, JP Morgan $JPM has compounded at 12% annually. It's one of the Top 100 wealth creators in the country's history. And yet, investors had to endure a period from 1986-1995 and 2000-2016 in which they made no money. Patience is not optional if you want long-term success.
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In 1983, McDonalds $MCD served its 45th billion burger. Since then, the stock has risen from $2 to $262. Many businesses that appear unfathomably large are just getting their compounding started. I say, buy, hold, and enjoy the rewards.
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Buying Microsoft $MSFT stock in 1999 at 55x earnings would have resulted in a loss as recently as 2013. Through today? 12.3% compounding, turning $10k into $190k with all dividends reinvested. One of the best "extreme valuation burn-off" success stories of all time.
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Monster Beverage $MNST controls 40% of the US energy drink market. For reference, Coca-Cola "only" has 25% market share. It is a dominant, high-margin, wide-moat machine. Since 2000, the stock has compounded at 35% annualized, turning $10k into $12 million. Truly exceptional.
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Warren Buffett gave a speech at Notre Dame in the early 1990s in which he specifically identified AT&T $T as a poor long-term investment for a blue-chip stock because its heavy infrastructure spending permanently siphoned off profits that would otherwise have provided long-term
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Coca-Cola $KO is up 9% this year and is growing earnings at 7-8% and paying out a 2.7% dividend that increases every single year. This is why older investors politely decline the advice of RIAs and their grandchildren to sell their "sugar water stock" to invest in electric cars.
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In 1990, Credit Suisse was bigger than Berkshire Hathaway. Now, Berkshire Hathaway has the cash on hand to buy Credit Suisse more than ten times over. Praise and entrust, rather than criticize as suboptimal, the guys who keep mountains of cash on their balance sheets for you.
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In 2012, Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B traded at $87 per share. Now, the company has $87 per share...in cash alone.
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Simplicity is great. Since 1990, a McCormick shareholder that has reinvested every single dividend has obtained a 5,816% total return. Someone that invested with Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has gotten 5,815%. Basic salts and spices beat titanic investment intellect.
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Johnson & Johnson $JNJ is on the precipice of trading at $150 which would provide a 3% dividend yield.
Historically, investors at this yield rate traditionally scored 10-12% returns while receiving growing dividends every year for life.
There are simple ways to build wealth.
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A large number of "compounders", which I'll define as stocks with 30+ year track records of 10% or greater annual returns, are now trading at P/E ratios on the low side of historical average. In terms of the math and common sense, this spells solid long-term returns ahead.
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Halloween reminder of Hershey's $HSY perpetual dominance as an investment. It owns Reese's, a brand that has 40% profit margins. Up 24% this year, 126% over the past five years, 11,605% since 1982. Counting the dividend, annual returns over 12% on 20, 30, 40 year time periods.
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Exxon is up just shy of 200% since it was ejected from the Dow Jones in 2020 after nearly a century in the index. Its replacement, Salesforce, is down almost a third. Stock market indices are not passive. Active decisions get made, and some are quite costly.
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Coca-Cola $KO stock is up 7.3% this year and paying a 2.7% dividend. The 10% compounding magic is occurring right there in plain sight and perpetually neglected as it makes its owners richer. The backbone of permanent wealth creation in America for over a century and counting.
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Apple is great and all, but the company's earnings per share have only doubled since 2012, and that is largely due to a buyback binge funded by $90 billion in borrowing. The corporate earnings grew from $41 to $53 billion. Sorry, but this growth doesn't deserve a P/E ratio of 38.
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Coca-Cola $KO generates $25 million in profits per day as it provides about 4% of global beverage consumption. Every 100 shares you buy gives you a 1/40,000,000th cut of the best cash flowing business of the past century.
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Monster Beverage $MNST stock has climbed from $0.10 to $100 since 1986. It's a thousand-bagger and a top forty investment in history of investment markets. And yet, it declined in value by more than 30% on 11 different occasions. Volatility is both inevitability and opportunity.
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With dividends reinvested, an equal-weighted portfolio of Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson, 3M, Microsoft, and Colgate-Palmolive has increased its dividends by 13.4x over the past twenty years.
Someone collecting $7,500 in annual dividends in 2002 would be collecting $100,000 now.
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I suspect Warren Buffett will be providing cash to some large American companies in exchange for 8-12%-yielding preferred stock and some warrants to buy the stock at an unfathomably low price a decade from now. It is Berkshire's signature move.
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Coca-Cola $KO at $60 with a 3% dividend yield becomes the default opportunity cost against which everything must be measured. The list of stocks offering better risk-adjusted returns is far shorter than many might think. And of course, loading up on KO now is a potent choice.
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Costco $COST is a fantastic company with immense competitive advantages that will one day deliver market-beating returns even for those who paid over $600 per share last month. But for the disciplined value investor, it needs to fall to $250 before it becomes a self-evident buy.
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Meta $META traded at $90 in November. Ninety! Billions in cash rolling in quarterly, no debt, near monopoly business, and single digit P/E ratio. One of the best opportunities in the modern blue-chip investing era imho.
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Peter Lynch turned $4,000 in his late wife's IRA into over $11 million in value ($8 million account value after $3 million in withdrawal quite a few years back). Equal in investing acumen to Buffett and Munger, and amazing what can be accomplished with skill in the market.
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When Chipotle $CMG had its health crisis and saw its stock fall from $758 to $247 as profits dried up from $400+ million to near break-even, it is underappreciated how the stock's recovery to $2,278 was facilitated by the fact that the company has no debt on its balance sheet.
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Visa $V has raised its dividend 21.0% annually over the past decade. The remarkable part? It has grown earnings so quickly the dividend payout is still only one-fifth of overall earnings.
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Microsoft $MSFT has been doubling its intrinsic value every four years this century. When the first of the month rolls around, a shareholder could think, "This company is now worth 1.5% more than it was worth this time last month." An absolute jewel for long-term compounding.
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I'm reading old 2003 Motley Fool finance articles ... much concern at the time about McDonalds $MCD losing its dominance due to "healthier eating trends". Every article thesis is, "People will stop going to McDonalds because Americans are becoming more health conscious." Exactly
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About a fifth of Berkshire Hathaway can be traced to the fact that Warren Buffett remembered that trains still exist while the rest of the world mostly forgot.
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While Coca-Cola $KO investors collect their 3% dividend and 6-7% annual growth as a returning birthright, hundreds of thousands of AI companies will come and go.
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Stanley Black & Decker $SWK has been making dividend payments continuously since...the presidency of Rutherford B. Hayes. It now yields 4.3%. When it briefly reached that yield in the 1980s, it went on to produce 13.9% annual returns. Excellent opportunities abound around us.
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Warren Buffett bought HP. Why? The company controls a quarter of our PC market and has globalized costs of production downward while raising prices moderately. Also, it increases printer ink costs to consumers 5x as much as it pays each year. It's the GEICO of the home office.
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Coca-Cola $KO remains The Great Lifetime Investment. You collect your 3% each year, watch your capital grow another 7-8%, and bask in the reliability and inherent stability of receiving a functional royalty on 3.5% of the global beverage supply. Then, prosperity cometh.
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In 2002, McDonalds $MCD investors earned less than 1% in dividends. Due to high earnings and dividend growth year after year, McDonalds investors are now collecting 36% of their initial investment as dividends annually. A rising dividend becomes substantial income quickly.
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From 2020-2040, an anchor portfolio collection of ExxonMobil $XOM, Coca-Cola $KO, and Johnson & Johnson $JNJ stock is primed to deliver 10-13% annual returns. Their glory days are back and they're marching ahead with billions in retained profits anually.
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This is the thanks you get for combining longevity, integrity, and extreme skill in a way that delivered prosperity to all who joined you.
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Since its IPO, Home Depot $HD stock has increased 223,550%. It is one of the Top 50 wealth creators in the history of capitalism. And its employees get a 15% discount on any company stock they buy. The door to becoming a millionaire is open wide - just have to walk through it.
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From the high of 2000 to the low of 2009, Microsoft's stock price fell from $120 to $15. The tech firm almost tripled its earnings over that time frame, but the burden of the shift from extreme overvaluation to deep undervaluation is a "fright." Why margin of safety matters.
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The only stocks that have created more wealth than Berkshire are: Apple $AAPL, Microsoft $MSFT, Exxon Mobil $XOM, Amazon $AMZN, Alphabet $GOOGL, Johnson & Johnson $JNJ, Wal-Mart $WMT, and IBM $IBM.
Naturally, Buffett has either owned or lamented not owning each of these stocks.
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Every year, formerly exciting “investments” wither away. Meanwhile, the Coca-Cola $KO investors who are frequently discounted as not imaginative or ambitious enough, go about their business collecting 3% dividends and 7-8% earnings growth. Avoiding ditches is a major life hack.
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Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B now has more cash on hand than its entire market capitalization at the 2009 lows.
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Psychologically, the rise of Gamestop et al. has to be wrecking proper expectations. An old Credit Suisse study estimated that 0.5% of USA investors compounded at 10% or greater over a lifetime. We are currently in a moment where 10% returns are considered "a bad afternoon."
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ExxonMobil $XOM has paid out over $15 per share in dividends (counting added shares due to reinvestment) over the past four years. During parts of the pandemic lows, the stock traded below $30. Nothing ages better than blue-chip stocks from a point of distress.
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Since 1992, ExxonMobil $XOM has paid out more than $65k in dividends on a $10k investment. With dividend reinvestment, those 1,598 new shares were worth only $51k in October 2020. Now they are worth $152k. Reinvested dividends can lay low for years, then boom, significant wealth.
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Warren Buffett once said that fear strikes everyone all at once and confidence returns one by one. Same thing with greed. Many embraced crypto in 2021, and day by day, more and more return to the reality that it is real assets in the real world that create durable wealth.
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As Credit Suisse faces insolvency, go back and watch the Q&A from the past two years of Berkshire Hathaway meetings. So many investors complained about too much cash. Turns out, the guy who turned $125 into $593 billion knew what he was doing. Emulate Buffett, not Ulrich Koerner.
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In blue-chip stock land, buying a stock on the way down (1) may feel foolish for 1-3 years, but (2) experiences a "turn" where at some point 5-10 years later you see with clarity that the purchases on the way down is where you achieved compounding at Buffett-like rates.
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Since 1980, the fifty largest European banks have returned 4.4% annually. Like American car companies, this is not a category you need in your portfolio. You take on 100% blow-up risk without any inherent probability of meaningful gains. Classic example of high-risk/low-reward.
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Munger reiterated that Graham's career outperformance came almost entirely from GEICO. Take away that decision, and the Intelligent Investor would be theory without practitioner reality. Buy quality, hold quality, and accept that a small part of quality delivers the prosperity.
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I still can't believe Apple $AAPL traded at a single-digit P/E ratio less than a decade ago. It not only wields extreme pricing power against consumers, but other companies as well. No wonder Buffett owns almost a billion shares. It's the new Standard Oil and Coca-Cola combined.
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Since 2008, Louis Vuitton stock $LVMUY has increased ten-fold counting dividends. It is the rare business that keeps on reinvesting and earning 30% net profit margins without financial engineering. Needless to say, I am watching the stock's decline from $168 to $113 closely.
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If you are broke in your 30s and make a billion-dollar fortune without lying or stealing, participating in a lottery-style event, or bubble asset valuations, you deserve all the praise you get.
Am I the only one starting to think that Charlie Munger is overrated?
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Monster Beverage $MNST is one of the most understudied wealth builders. It has been, literally, the best investment ever at various times. Decentralized strength with multi-year distribution contracts at over 100,000 locations in 154 countries. High profit margins, strong growth.
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In One Up On Wall Street, Peter Lynch mentions the parking lot test - i.e. prioritize companies whose parking lots are bustling. This would lead to investments in McDonalds $MCD, Starbucks $SBUX, and Dominos $DPZ, which would have generated 19% returns over the past twenty years.
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An interesting fact about Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B is that, for its stock portfolio, 60% of its investment selections are held for less than a year while only 4% are held for more than a decade. Even more interesting, it is the 4% that creates the bulk of Berkshire's wealth.
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York Water $YORW is a small Pennsylvania water company that has paid dividends continuously since 1816. They literally mailed checks during the Civil War, World War I, Great Depression, etc. Since 2000, the investment has delivered 12x returns. This is why income investors exist.
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Coca-Cola $KO stock now yields 3.1%. Investors that bought the stock 3-5 years ago with a starting yield of at least 3.1% have earned 8.2% to 10.9% annual returns since then. A great, mature business that keeps ploughing ahead (something that is appreciated more these days).
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In October, Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B was in the $260s.
$100+ billion in cash, dozens of subsidiaries, excellent management.
And still, an opportunity for nearly 35% in less than a year.
Don't buy the hype that dramatic wealth doesn't come from the established firms.
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The retail investor, with his Coca-Cola $KO, Johnson & Johnson $JNJ, and Exxon-Mobil $XOM stock, has been a much better steward of capital than nearly any hedge fund manager that has appeared in the public eye over the past five years.
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McDonalds $MCD has almost doubled profits from $6 per share in 2020 to $12 now. Why? It charges rent to franchisees and collects a fee of gross sales. So it captures a royalty stream from franchisees and ultimately customers. All-time great investment. Up over 12,000% since 1983.
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The part of Finance Twitter that was telling you how to double your net worth monthly in 2021 has pivoted towards doomsday prognostications. Meanwhile, those who collect Coca-Cola $KO, Johnson & Johnson $JNJ, and ExxonMobil $XOM dividends will continue to prosper through it all.
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Berkshire is made for these conditions - rising rates that provide billions in interest income and drive down valuations so that incredible companies can be bought outright at a fair price. A lesson in there for the management of your own personal affairs as well.
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Visa $V is up 27% over the past six months.
When it briefly dipped below $180 in October, it was probably a major buying opportunity even though the P/E ratio didn't look cheap.
For a few rare businesses, P/E ratios in the lower 20s *is* the discount bin. Visa is one of them.
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Warren Buffett knew what he was doing buying See's. Since 1988, a "Big Chocolate" portfolio of Nestle, Hershey, and Lindt has delivered 15% annual returns. Putting $3,000 into each back then would be $1.2 million today. Plus, little volatility - worst annual performance was 11%.
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Costco $COST currently has $15 billion in cash and $6 billion in debt. The $15 special dividend, for each of the 442 million shares, will cost about $6.7 billion. It will have $8.3 billion in cash and $6 billion in debt after the special dividend. Still very financially strong.
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Scotts Miracle Gro $SMG is the type of company Warren Buffett would acquire. Dominates lawn care, has stable demand, has grown profits 13% annualized for past 15 years, raises dividend every year, and trades at 10x earnings. Tech resistant industry that will always be around.
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Per Alice Schroeder in "Snowball", part of the incredible story of how Charlie Munger clawed forward from his terrible low to a new beginning in his personal life.
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Domino's $DPZ is possibly one of the best proofs-of-concept with the franchise model. It has a very loyal customer base of about 300,000 people who visit the store weekly. It's the pizza version of McDonalds.
As a result, the stock has compounded at 36.5% annualized over the
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Buy-and-hold-forever investing is the friend of the investor who properly understands magnitude. If a *single* Nike, Home Depot, Starbucks, Microsoft, Berkshire Hathaway, etc. ends up in your portfolio over a 30+ year time frame, nothing else matters. You've trounced the game.
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Coca-Cola $KO is set to pay out a dividend on Monday, a nice little tradition that has been going on during 42% of the country's history. May all your investments be so prosperous.
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Over the past five years, Procter & Gamble $PG has returned 13.5% while the S&P 500 has returned 9.3%. Almost no one talked about buying P&G stock with any regularity over that time frame. And yet, it delivered "hot tech" style returns. The tortoise/hare analogy remains on point.
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During every 35 year period dating back to 1882, an investor in ExxonMobil $XOM or one of its predecessor entities has always generated at least 100% yield-on-cost for an investor that chooses to reinvest dividends (i.e. an initial investment of $10,000 paying out at least
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Credit Suisse $CS has a 25 year-track record of destroying capital, saying "whoops, it won't happen again", and then destroying capital. It is the reverse Berkshire Hathaway - it turns See's candies into textile mills.
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Microsoft $MSFT is the ultimate buy-and-hold investment of the 21st century. Strong profit margins, strong volume growth, strong earnings growth, strong cash position, strong adoption as default product of global business. Much more wealth creation to be had from this investment.
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Following the salmonella outbreak, Chipotle $CMG stock fell to $312 in December 2017.
The stock now trades at $2,219, for a 38.6% compounded gain.
Recognizing low valuation amid acute events that will be resolved remains the ultimate skill for creating medium-term wealth.
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I just read Home Depot's $HD annual reports. It is notable to me how the company benefits from economies of scale - profit margins are double what they were in 2002. It grows profits 18% annually because it operates logistics w/ Amazon-like efficiency but with less competition.
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Since 1985, Johnson & Johnson $JNJ has compounded at 13.4% to turn $10k into $1.1 million. The dividend has increased every year, the profits have increased in every three year rolling period, and it never had a down year more than 10%. An 'ole reliable stock to own long term.
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I think the greatest evidence of Coca-Cola’s $KO moat is that Costco essentially gave up competing with them. That’s about the best market signal that could indicate a business has centuries ahead of it.
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I am always amused when stocks like Microsoft, Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson, etc. are described as "great stocks for beginning investors". What a restrictive misnomer! They're great stocks for anyone who wants to make a lot of money in a low-risk way for the rest of their lives.
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Over the next thirty years, I would expect an equal-weighted portfolio of Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B, Costco $COST, and Daily Journal $DJCO to outperform the S&P 500. Munger's legacy will roll on.
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Visa $V has grown earnings at a 17.5% annualized rate since its March 2008 IPO. Most years, earnings have generally grown between 14% and 22%. It has been one of the most obvious, reliable compounders in the world. Less than two dozen businesses in its league globally.
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1. Warren Buffett is well-known for his Coca-Cola investment in which he allocated over $1 billion slightly over three decades ago and grew Berkshire's position in the stock to $25 billion today (plus the billions in dividends paid out along the way for further investment).
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Coca-Cola $KO needs to come down another dollar or so to hit that magical 3% yield mark. It has almost always delivered returns north of 10% for investors that bought the stock at that yield point or higher and then held on for 10+ years. Also, the dividend raise is coming soon.
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