Stillman
@Stillm4n
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BTC 2018 vs. now. (3D vs. 10h). All I am going to say is if we get this move next, don't mistake it for a bear flag.
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As the atmosphere gets increasingly euphoric, remember this: We are robbing a bank right now. The silent alarm went off and the police is on its way. Grab as much as you can. Keep an eye on the exit. Keep the getaway car engine running. Make out like a bandit.
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Next up on medium is my recent research on $ICX
@helloiconworld
. Most of you might have read it already but I'm re-uploading it there to have everything in one place:
ICON ($ICX)
A Network-of-Networks with the Potential to transform the Blockchain Industry
medium.com
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So we've all been wondering how the Fear & Greed index looks in bull markets since the data only goes back to 2018. I figured it out today. This is the F&G index compared with the data on % of BTC UTXOs in profit provided by
@glassnode
:
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1/ What bothers me about the Elon stuff isn't "muh manipulation", it's how it all happens with a complete disregard of facts and data. The dynamics of Brandolini's Law get amplified to ridiculous proportions if the bullshitter is one of the most influential people on the planet.
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1/ Anon you still don't understand the unprecedented force that is the $AMP tokenomics. This is building up to be a perpetuum mobilé of wealth made possible by an inspired design and a commitment to decentralization unheard of among enterprise focused projects. Let me explain.
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1/ Was this the top sir? Let's look at what we got for $BTC. TLDR: The likely answer is no although I encourage you to be aware of the fact that onchain-data isn't as scarce as it used to be back in 2017 when only Woo, Ikigai and their quant friends looked at it. "Fair value":
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The hidden bullish divergence that nobody is talking about. $BTC
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Just received
@helloiconworld
's newsletter. When you see it all lined up, you realize that price is way behind of $ICX value: Mobile wallet, Line Plus partnership on Unchain, ChainID/Samsung, Korean customs ... I still stand behind every word in here
ICON ($ICX)
A Network-of-Networks with the Potential to transform the Blockchain Industry
medium.com
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Waking up to see whole of CT agree with Zhu Su that BTC.D doesn't matter made me fell very uneasy about the market. I'll watch it even closer from now on. The immediate pump on it out of a 4h bull flag was a nice touch.
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Re: $ICX: "Korean Ethereum" only tells half of the story. Theloop works with business partners directly, creating solutions tailored to their specific needs. Those private chains are then connected to the (public) nexus. So
@helloiconworld
is the "Korean Hyperledger" too.
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1/ Not seeing much useful content on the feed today so I'll make an attempt. Let me start off with some general observations on sentiment leading into this and then I'll get into charts.
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1/ Recently did this write up in the dojo and I think it's worth sharing here too: Since we are approaching the all time high retest area it is going to be useful to study past cycles in order to prepare for what's ahead. This is that area back in 2016:
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Alameda is going to be able to extrapolate what everbody in crypto is holding in their portfolios on average at any given time through the Blockfolio data. Since trades are won on information/perception asymmetry and Alameda are kind of kings at that game consider me scared lol
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To everybody affected by this $BTC price action, be very careful about getting sucked in to miner capitulation narratives, China bs and bear euphoria calls. CT is ripe with them right now and you have to keep in mind this unfolds after a 41% correction already happened.
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While many next gen platforms continue to accept Eth for their ICOs, CryptoCurve on
@wanchain_org
will exclusively accept $WAN tokens in public sale. That's how you create proper and natural demand. For an in depth look at WAN head over to my write up:
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"Everybody is a genius in a bullm-" The hell is this? It's rare that you can watch somebody play a perfect game but
@koreanjewcrypto
pulled it off over the past couple of days. ... On his phone from fucking Disneyworld.
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On occasion of their presentation in Dubai today, I just published my research on
@wanchain_org
$WAN. If you enjoyed my in-depth look at
@helloiconworld
, make sure to check out this sequel on the 2nd member of the
#interoperabilityalliance
:
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Current outlook: The market is slow cooking participants in order to trigger emotional stop losses into capitulation on the people that didn't get liquidated yet. The volume here is extremely high, if a higher low holds here it takes us at least into the complacency shoulder.
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1/ It's time to write about
@HamachiFinance
's Ponzu Protocol and what they call the "DAE" (Decentralized Autonomous Entity). Innovation rarely happens in the world of meme coins but I think the DAE is the kind of innovation that might have people make spread sheets in the future.
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1/ $BTC's weekly RSI is at its highest point ever and we are going to get hit with the wall of fear soon. Tether fud is key in the crypto bullmarket playbook and it already started to raise it's head (notice how it's been rather quiet during the bear?)
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Just the beginning for $QASH, I hope everybody loaded up by now. We sure had enough time haha
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$HBAR
@hashgraph
trying the good old "google partnership" scam announcement that even has the fact that it's just them becoming a client of Google Cloud IN THE SUBTITLE and it works. This has to be altszn. Chart is a beauty though lmao.
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Wonder what the equivalent to Corona and the markets crashing was in August 2012? (It was the collapse of Bitcoin Savings Trust ponzi) And in August 2016? (120k BTC got stolen from Bitfinex, leading to a shutdown) Price will find a reason but BTC did this exact move every cycle:
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5/ Why am I posting this today? It's not because of Elon. I woke up to this news that the last Northern White Rhino died. The first response below the post is by a creationist questioning evolution and science. The Rhinos died because of human superstition. Idiocracy is here.
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/2 This way, we can find out how much time we spent in "Extreme Greed" conditions in past bull markets:
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2/ Flexa isn't a company, it's the network. While the $AMP token isn't like owning traditional equity, it's the closet thing to it: When a transaction through Flexa occurs, all of the fees are paid to the AMP stakers providing the collateral on Capacity.
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If $DAG can break 144 again I'm calling it and this train is leaving the station. 8 month long bull flag about to resolve.
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$BTC Dominance just closed a daily outside of the years-long uptrend for the first time.
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Never talked to
@Anbessa100
but always admired his charting skills and out of the box thinking. I watched his perfomance this season closely and he didn't miss a beat. No way it's not him behind the handle. Salt on CT through the roof & now turned against the value in the system.
@cryptonator1337
@CryptoDonAlt
@MoonOverlord
It's rally sad tbh. I never thought to receive this much hate. I am
@Anbessa100
, if you know my charts and my content, there is no question about it. Literally everybody who I thought would be salty prooved it today
All the best to all of you though.
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1/ Fun fact: My two favorite founders,
@trspalding
and
@wyatt_noise
both worked on NASA programs. Tyler as an engineer for the Mars Crew Module and the Space Shuttle program and Wyatt on an algorithm aiming to detect intelligent communications for SETI. Absolute legends.
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Vechain mooned on the premise of being a supply chain solution. But
@vechainofficial
are innovating on smart contracts in general, features of a true next gen platform. On the Thor Blockchain, we'll be able to mimicking the complexity of real world contracts in an accessible way:
Part 2: How the Transaction Model Enables The Necessary Public Blockchain Adoption.
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In light of what will happen around
@QUOINE_SG
's Liquid platform, their ICO hub and the allmighty $QASH token over the coming weeks, I'd like to share my analysis with you guys again as a reminder of why we are holding this 💎:
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4/ Sounds like treacherous regulatory ground? Flexa went through the pain of setting up shop in New York (the toughest place for crypto regulation in the US) and their token sale was 100% compliant with the SEC. You don't take chances challenging the payment industry.
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Sharing an updated version of my write up on
@QUOINE_SG
's Liquid platform and the $QASH token as part of their bounty program. Glad to see them getting their marketing game on & looking forward to their upcoming World Book beta. Still super bullish on this
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6/ Recap: $AMP supply is finite. At some point all tokens are on the market and each one gives you a greater number of returns as adoption grows. The network is buying tokens each day. The only sell pressure left is people exiting. But who exits a yield that just keeps growing?
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1/ The
#wallstreetbets
#gamestop
event, to me, is a fable of lions and foxes. In that story, the lions are the funds and gatekeepers of traditional finance and the foxes are a demographic of increasingly sophisticated retail traders that
@chamath
identified on CNBC.
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7/ Lastly, why am I optimistic in adoption? There are several reasons, the first one is that the team has the (very grand) vision and the skills to pull it off. Just watch this presentation from Consensus 2019 and I bet you'll sense it too:
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Current theory on $MATIC: They did a shitcoin airdrop today, then the usual sell the news happened but for the first time we had margin trading on an illiquid Binance book in place to cause a cascade. Other coins like $RVN dumped 30m later which points towards a ripple effect
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3/ Flexa isn't a company. There is no business taking a cut. Let that sink in, compare it to Flexa's 2017-2018 peers. All value flows into the token. There is more: The AMP to pay staking rewards is purchased from the market in order to return all charged fees to the stakers.
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Just a warning for the potential top buyers and future community members out there. $MATIC 30m vs. $BTC daily.
#thistimeitsdifferent
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Prepared this F&G Index correlation chart in response to a question yesterday when BTC hit the current low. I highlighted extreme spikes and prolonged clusters close to these extreme levels. As
@bbands
said on Uponly last night, fear and greed will always be driving market forces
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$ncash illuminati scheme confirmed. Hipsters will get on board just for the triangles. No doubt, this will be the next $trx
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Tone Vays isn't the only one in the leading crypto personnel that can't resist milking a kid's suicide for advertisement:
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I expect the 3D close on BTC tonight to be pivotal. Bullish engulfing should be the start of a move to fill the full inefficiency above. Anything less and I expect to go all the way back down, potentially make new lows.
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1/ Alts look very promising across the board. The shitcoin index has been leading and now it looks like the others are about to follow:
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This is huge news coming out of ICON, glad I didn't get impatient with my $ICX position 🔥
I just published “Joint Venture between ICON and LINE: ‘Unchain’”
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5/ Now consider this: The last row on this slide represents a 1% market penetration of retail payments in the US alone. Flexa is prepared for global adoption (and adoption is a key word here in terms of this market cycle). $14.2B collateral value, $1.3M in daily fees/rewards.
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After
@ArbitradeX
's announcement of their $DIG contracts over $10 billion dollars in gold bullion with S.I.O.N. Inc.,
@seriousjew
and I took a closer look at the company to clear up some confusion and doubts. We stumbled upon some impressive details:
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9/ So this is one of those "billion dollars problems" that innovators look to solve. For smaller merchants, the situation gets even worse, some of them pay up to 4% for each payment. Flexa offers to reduce these fees significantly by replacing a very archaic architecture:
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My body is ready for that final push that sucks in mum&dad's money.
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12/ One last thing since I got your attention. The thread that makes you think everything is gonna be alright is going to hit 100 likes in an hour while this tweet got 32 likes in total. Next time don't fade the lazer eyes hubris indicator boyz and girlz:
Man this hidden Tier 4 subscription is really paying for itself. Thank you for hooking me up
@glassnode
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$NU Nucypher is shaping up to complete a market cycle on the 4h just like on the $OTCO chart I shared before the breakout. This one is shaped a little differently but makes a lot of sense. Being cheap on Coinbase and having Curve's Michael Egorov as CTO is going to help too.
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Updating this real quick. $MATIC Very grateful to Kazonomics for teaching us about crash cycles.
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8/ The other major reason is that adopting Flexa is in the best interest of the Merchants. This is a b2b play, Flexa doesn't need to cater to retail/users. Walmart pays $5b in processing costs on payments a year. And they get the most competitive rates.
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2/ This continues to further the erosion of reason- and fact based discourse in favor of feelings and opinions, a trend that has been ongoing for a while but got into full motion during the Trump era in the US. The damage this is going to do to society can't be underestimated.
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Getting very close to the target range for BTC.d that we've been eyeing in the dojo for around a year now. The way to get there requires some pain but the rewards are worth it.
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1/ BTC bearish retested the 4h 200EMA for the first time since the end of Defi Season September 2020. Back then it went to retest the 21 EMA on the weekly for support. To me this is not the place to be balls to the walls 100% risk on in crypto. A glimpse of hope, however, ...
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4/ A more anecdotic evidence of this behavior is how Elon keeps interacting with the Randy scammer account despite 100s of people explaining to him that the scammer has been stealing from victims in crypto for years. No way he didn't see, and no way to counter his follower count.
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Now we got official confirmation about France's new supportive stance on crypto icos and blockchain tech straight from their minister of finance. Leading Nation's fomo picking up!
Nous ne raterons pas la révolution de la
#blockchain
!
#Cryptoactifs
,
#bitcoin
,
#ICO
,
#fintech
... La France veut être force de proposition pour construire le monde de demain ! 🇫🇷🚀
Ma tribune sur
@Numerama
👇
#G20Argentina
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"Few understand" has to be the most factual and accurate meme I've seen on CT so far.
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Similar to how DOGE acts as a canary for the start of a true alt season, its blow off is also heralding the macro blow off of said season. Enjoy the ride and protect them gainz.
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The fact that Dag price action is structuring out above the diagonal resistance of a two year flag is kinda epic.
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$RSR is one of the most bullish looking charts out there right now imo, especially if you consider how close the USDT pairing is to price discovery. Took the first bite at 28 sats in May and added more two days ago on the retest of the breakout at 40-38. Not a daytrade. ⛩️
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1/ Now that we covered BTC price action around all time highs and risk management, let's take a look at what was up with altcoins like $ETH, $XRP, $LTC, $XMR, $DASH and $ETC at that time in 2016 and see if we can draw some conclusions.
1/ Recently did this write up in the dojo and I think it's worth sharing here too: Since we are approaching the all time high retest area it is going to be useful to study past cycles in order to prepare for what's ahead. This is that area back in 2016:
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1/ After comparing a bunch of macro analyses on time frames, fractals and the MAs over the past week, I bought some $BTC today. I'd also like to throw my own take into the mix that revolves around something I'd like to call historically traumatic shake-out events:
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Take-aways
- If I only posted shit like this I'd be at 100k followers
- Both the people liking the tweet and the ones disagreeing tend to miss the conditional if-clause
- Majority on both sides don't factor in lower time frame = lower outcome magnitude
- high hopium & salt levels
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Unlike during the BTC leg down yesterday, ETHBTC is rising against this drop. Dynamic shift:
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Du Duh Duuuhhhh.
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Summary of Matrix' $MAN role in a mega project by the Chinese government. The news has apparently been out for months but few people noticed. I've seen they recently confirmed this in their Telegram too (as well as in 2 interviews):
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3/ In the case of Elon it's pretty obvious how he disregards and ignores any attempts to explain the mining issue in a more nuanced fashion regarding energy mix, energy grid efficiency etc. You would expect him to be aware of all of this so it's likely intended.
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10/ When the Flexa SDK comes out this summer, anybody will be able to implement the Flexa network architecture in their apps. I expect numerous payment implementations coming up that run on it and I am optimistic that some of the names associated are going to blow minds on CT.
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11/ Lastly, let me show you one of my macro BTC charts:
- 1W bearish engulfing at exactly the same spot on the log growth curve we engulfed last cycle
- RSI still ranging in bull market oscillation range
- 1W OBV uptrend still intact
We are very close to entering the buy zone.
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1/ Bit of macro data from this morning's dojo call: Surprisingly (?) the trend of BTC leaving exchanges is continuing:
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13/ While all of this is going on in the background, only $AMP holders need to concern themselves with these intricate operations. Retail users will just see and use an app that allows them to quickly (<1s) pay with stablecoins, CBDCs, cryptocurrencies and other digital assets.
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Seeing a lot of "can't go up unless the dumb money left" and I think it's quite the opposite: If this is supposed to turn into a July '17 situation you need dumb money to stay and buy more. That's what I ('17 dumb money) did during July and China Fud. A bull market needs buyers.
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@JJcycles
@ByzGeneral
If you look back that's how they've been operating during the past micro cycles: They start building the long exposure on the way down and pretty much immediately after the bottom is in they start covering. Pay attention to when they start covering again, could be a bottom.
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" $ETH recovering on news that Michael Saylor doesn't hold any " - SOURCES
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12/ Remember that there is a finite amount of $AMP, so what happens if adoption grows so much that daily transactions require more collateral? Once all $AMP are staked in Capacity, the only way that collateral can grow is by $AMP's unit price appreciating. ... (dramatic pause)
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Very bullish for crypto, means that while there is going to be increased regulatory scrutiny, established stablecoins do have a role to play once CBDCs have arrived. This could have resolved differently. (Sidenote:
@FlexaHQ
still the best proxy token investment for this scenario)
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If Altcoin Dominance was a tradeable asset, with you long or short this chart? Act accordingly.
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Yup, almost exactly the same amount as yesterday. Wild
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You learned to make a swap on Uni by now? Very nice, you are still ahead of probably 85% of the market. There are still other, darker grounds out there though where big game is being hunted.
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