SouthernValue
@SouthernValue95
Followers
10,726
Following
1,537
Media
651
Statuses
5,094
Infinitely curious. DMs open. “Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up.” - Charlie Munger
Boston, MA
Joined June 2019
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Vance
• 1061157 Tweets
#เทควันโด
• 494787 Tweets
Iraq
• 423725 Tweets
Alberto
• 389387 Tweets
Stolen Valor
• 252685 Tweets
Kursk
• 202430 Tweets
BEST WISHES FOR SAROCHA
• 199166 Tweets
Wisconsin
• 195037 Tweets
#เทนนิสพาณิภัค
• 182399 Tweets
Trump 2024
• 159918 Tweets
GIVE VINESH SILVER
• 133328 Tweets
Tampon Tim
• 123556 Tweets
Ripple
• 119348 Tweets
ISIS
• 117357 Tweets
#erişimengelinikaldır
• 89447 Tweets
Eau Claire
• 80201 Tweets
Walthamstow
• 52979 Tweets
Brighton
• 37473 Tweets
Leverkusen
• 37211 Tweets
Vienna
• 37039 Tweets
Quincy Hall
• 33652 Tweets
Home Affairs
• 31406 Tweets
Nelly
• 31249 Tweets
Chidimma
• 27125 Tweets
Stona
• 18820 Tweets
Bon Iver
• 18178 Tweets
#الاتحاد_انتر_ميلان
• 17262 Tweets
Chamath’s “cheap insurance” 5yr short bets have lost -77% and -106% as we approach year 4.
The growing short case on $FB and $GOOG:
1. New product experiences
2. Regulation
3. Taxes
4. Anti-trust
If you have the capital/stomach for a 5yr+ bet, here’s how I’d build the short case...
196
455
3K
43
86
2K
$GOOG clearly admitted last night that they are not seeing adequate *current* ROIC on AI capex, are likely over-investing, and struggled to provide concrete examples of killer apps deployed at scale, but emphasized that adoption of new technologies takes time, and the risks from
28
85
977
“ROIC is one of the most important principles in investing, which is so utterly misunderstood, most people don’t even know how to calculate it: NOPAT / WACC,” -
@chamath
😂
38
35
522
Stanley Druckenmiller:
“I was up 42% last year and I’m up 17% this year. I’ve made those numbers bc of the Fed not in spite of them. I have 6 outside money managers who are up a lot more than me. A monkey can make money in this market.”
13
40
450
Perhaps the whole scooter thing will become a relic of this VC bubble.
Tampa decides to phase out scooters over the next 3yrs.
The timing of $BRDS SPAC and the speed at which it incinerated shareholder wealth is just incredible
21
26
364
Why do some people feel so compelled to be opinionated on things they have literally no clue abt?
22
9
364
Below is a long thread on 7 key levers that will drive growth at $ADSK for the next decade. Investors have been fixated on mgmt.’s guided $2.4bn FCF by Jan ‘22, but I believe there is vast opportunity beyond that point. First, a summary of the drivers. I will expand on each one:
10
44
331
In my immaturity as an investor I mistook my contrarian bias for being an independent thinker. Today I strive to actually be an independent thinker, even when it leads me to conclusions that are quite consensus.
8
29
257
Note & analysis from Bernstein showing that the number of titles in a streaming library don't meaningfully drive engagement - new releases do. Candidly, I overestimated the value of libraries to legacy media companies in building sustainable DTC businesses $DIS $WBD $NFLX $PARA
17
27
254
What are the best annual letters or stock pitches you’ve read / heard lately? Kindly link below.
13
16
226
Good note from Kash/Goldman software team on what's weighing on the sector and their view from here:
- $15B of AI revenue at hyperscale clouds (~2% of global software revs) bypassing normal budget scrutiny. In a no-growth budget environment, that elevates the scrutiny on
@JaredSleeper
S&P 500 margins have been in contraction for 2yrs, wage pressures persist, rates are in restrictive territory, driving widespread belt tightening. Last year cloud optimization was the low hanging fruit and I think now as companies go into software renewals post layoffs, SaaS
0
1
18
1
18
223
Last time KC won the Super Bowl the S&P500 fell 30% in the ensuing 2 months
12
20
216
So you cant buy big tech (no earnings clarity), semis (cycle/already bounced), SaaS (too much SBC), media (shrinking profit pool), gaming (cyclical), telco (competition), internet (ads), ecom (recession/margins). All TMT has become uninvestible. Have fun with Staples/Utes/Energy?
24
15
220
The following funds run by investing "legends" have underperformed the S&P since 2010, over a full cycle, w/ many different flavors of value investing:
- Sequoia
- Oakmark
- Longleaf Partners
- Davis Ventures
- Fairholme
- Fenimore
- Berkshire BV/S
- Markel BV/S
The game is hard
17
22
206
Buffett, Malone, Diller all long in the tooth. Who are some great dealmakers still under 60?
- Andy Florence, CoStar
- Neil Hunn, Roper
- Jensen Huang, Nvidia
Dark Horses
- Josh Silverman, Etsy
- Larry Culp, GE
- Jeff Lawson, Twilio
Zuck’s likely done doing deals
Who else?
48
12
205
Day 1 Bezos vibes from Andy Jassy today on CNBC.
This is exactly how you want your CEO to look - zero vanity and all business. Balding (didn’t get the power shave or Elon plugs), blue collar shirt & modest loose-fitting suit, healthy but not jacked.
12
9
201
The near-term bear case for software is below, expressed in a CIO anecdote shared by UBS analyst Karl Keirstead on software bloat and vendor pricing aggression. The bull case is that extrapolating the current digestion period is too punitive. $MSFT $CRM $NOW
"Our focus right now
4
18
198
Terry Smith causally labeled $FTNT as a duopoly w/ $PANW in firewalls. Each has ~20% share in firewall, and far less in SASE and Cloud which are their respective growth markets... duopoly rly? C'mon
Sold $AMZN bc of 1 comment on grocery and took credit for them not doing it yet?
25
11
193
I’m late to this but the
@BillAckman
recount of his comeback story on
@lexfridman
podcast is truly remarkable. Lost $4B on Valeant, public short campaign turned disaster in $HLF, faced redemptions, facing litigation, Paul Singer was going activist on his public activist business,
8
11
185
$AMZN is changing the way they purchase servers, and this will have a material impact on FCF for the next few years. But its nothing to worry about.
3
18
179
A bad short: Trades 30x consensus estimates, but it’s actually 25x bc they both manage expectations and execute exceptionally … re-rates to 35x as everyone recognizes they’ll continue to beat AND consensus moves up so you lose 2x (fundamentals and multiple)
A decent funding
4
16
180
$2TN market cap, and the WORST looking slide deck in corporate America. Still Day 1 at $AMZN
22
14
169
Uber has gotten so bad in tier II/III cities. Prices and wait times have skyrocketed generally to make it no longer a “no brainer,” and I’ve now been stranded at both Tampa, San Diego airports and downtown Richmond. Did COVID break ridesharing or just transitory?
25
9
165
It cost $25k to have a baby with no complications + 2 nights in the hospital
Among the charges is $4.3k for room and board... I slept on a couch and ate cafeteria food - I can assure it was no St Regis 😂
No refund for the processing error which delayed meds to my wife 5hrs 😬
42
4
169
Investing legend Jeff Vinik in recent interview:
- Spending more time on stocks (less on Lightning/RE), read 8hr/day
- Key to investing is to be bullish long term but avoid bubbles
- Expects light recession then 5-10yrs of prosperity
- Expects rent to stabilize from new supply
2
13
170
$PLTR: “We have a good chance at becoming the most important software company in the world,” CEO Alex Karp told BBG during an interview Monday. “Demand is unprecedented for Palantir’s AI,” he said.
They reported … 13% growth? Do they know what the word “unprecedented” means?
17
2
156
Distribution of U.S. sports rights in order of annual value (by distributor and by league) from MS
6
28
148
$FB will generate ~$158 this year per US sub, nearly identical to $NFLX, but with over twice the gross margin, and 4x the users.
FB has grown US ARPU ~30% for 8 years, while growth has stalled recently.
I think $FB is cheap relative to its long term opportunity set. But (ctd)
8
21
141
41% move in $GOOG since November but you were too smart and had better ideas
14
9
141
Who was your favorite guest star on Friends? Mine was Howard Marks
8
7
139
Not that anyone cares but $MKL just crushed earnings… grew TBV/share >25% in ‘21. Insurance biz growing 17% while underwriting at 90% CR. 80% of mkt cap covered by equities, excess cash, & ventures (if worth 15x FCF). Implies insurance trading ~3x. Embedded rate hedge to boot.
12
9
135
$ADSK isn’t cheap.
Nor should a quasi-monopoly growing 18%, with 92% Gross margins, enormous embedded income statement investment, and which likely grow substantially >GDP w/ high contribution margins until my 1yr old has a college diploma, be.
9
11
135
AWS outage demonstrates the potential resiliency of an intelligently architected cloud network. $NFLX operates in the impacted AWS US East 1 region, but is up and running. NFLX can move from one AWS region to another in a few min - often w/o impacting video streams due to its CDN
2
20
135
Broken clocks are right twice a day and Jeremy Granthams perma bear calls are right once a cycle. A timeline and cautionary lesson for investors:
2010: Grantham sells stocks out of the financial crisis, saying stocks are now overvalued:
6
14
135
$SNOW's Slootman: customers foray into AI has been experimental, it's expensive, there's no clear business model yet to pay for it
"We cant unleash AI & have no business model to pay for it. People will get tired of that really quick. GPUs aren't cheap, as powerful as they are."
6
23
134
This is why it gets the premium multiple. This is effectively a recurring revenue business w/ a price insensitive core customer. Long live $CMG
6
2
119
Feels like you’re stealing businesses @ current prices in Telco/media ( $WBD $CHTR $DIS ), home/construction ( $FERG $FND $LOW $HD ), semiconductors ( $ON $LRCX $KLAC $TSM ). Software companies I never thought I’d own I can now get to hurdle IRRs w/ reasonable assumptions.
16
4
116
Surprised but not shocked to see Warren Buffett at MS TMT this year, on the front row to hear Colette Kress explain how early we are in the shift to accelerated computing. It’s now clear that $NVDA is in fact his secret 4Q stock addition.
8
5
118
Giverny capital flies under the radar, but this is one of the most impressive modern records I've seen. Very difficult to find managers who can last 28 years, let alone put up these absolute and relative numbers. Winning in multiple market environments. Hats off.
10
14
114
"Lemonade will acquire Metromile in an all-stock transaction that implies a fully diluted equity value of approximately $500 million, or just over $200 million net of cash"
Buffett had Geico.
I pick
@Metromile
.
The company announced today that it is going public via a SPAC ($INAQ) and I led the PIPE.
This is an incredible company disrupting car insurance and giving customers a best in class experience.
My one pager is attached. 🙏🏽
326
300
4K
10
8
113
$CHTR share price decline of -68% since '21 peak almost exactly mirrors the decline in its '24 FCF estimates.
9
8
113
What are the best financial history books? Just for open exploration of major financial events, not opinion pieces abt the direction of inflation or gold or rates.
@jfc_3_
?
40
16
106
End of quarters - that magical time of year folks on FinTwit will compare their performance excluding cash drag to the index excluding dividends
8
5
104
FinTwit will idolize Thoma Bravo while passing on buying good SaaS cos down -50-70% themselves, despite the advantage of no takeout premium, bc of trailing GAAP profits (& pivoting into oil bulls as WTI hits cycle highs). Always investing based on what is vs what is likely to be.
9
2
104
Monish Pabrai looks like someone pretending to be Monish Pabrai
2
2
103
What is your best investment idea that has little or nothing to do with AI, GLP-1, or your macro view on rates/inflation?
59
4
102
Not surprised $TGT beat on the topline based on the credit card data.
That is, my wife’s credit card data…
3
0
99
Hard not to be excited abt U.S. housing setup for next several years, and many companies levered to these themes trade at double digit near-term earnings/FCF yields and are aggressively buying back shares
Awesome setup to buy $ORLY $AZO in '18 setup by GFC auto sales cohort and "cash for clunkers". Ideal auto aftermarket customer group declined LSD for 5yrs before inflecting.
Anything like this today in a different industry where trend is set to reverse or data blurs real trend?
9
1
67
9
6
103
Einhorn: "We're not in a bubble. We don't have any basket shorts on at the moment."
5
5
101
A little known & poorly followed company called Amazon Dot Com just reported operating income that was 40% higher than consensus estimates. Sometimes pays to look in the forsaken corners of the market where inefficiencies still exist. $AMZN
4
3
102
$AI grew subscription revenue $4M yoy, or 7%, during an AI bubble.
More impressively it only took an incremental $16M COGS to deliver that revenue, for an incremental gross margin of -300%. Real impressive.
Definitely an AI winner and definitely a software company.
11
2
98
BREAKING: "Roaring Kitty" is set to be a billionaire as GameStop stock, $GME, surges to $67.50/share in after hours trading.
If $GME opens at or above current levels tomorrow, his shares will be worth ~$325 million and options worth ~$700 million for a combined ~$1 billion.
675
3K
23K
3
6
99
“Father Orlando, who art in Miami, hallowed by thy capital. Thy monthly buyouts come, thy will be done, in the rest of TMT as it is in SaaS. Amen”
2
12
96
Not everyday you see Jim Cramer murder a CEO on public television
14
9
96
They are right, “Liberty Media has blood on their hands!” But it’s not the blood of puppies, it’s active value investors.
$CHTR $LBRDA $QRTEA $LXSMA $SIRI $TRIP
14
11
93
The biggest obstacle I've had to overcome in life is starting my professional career as a telecom and media analyst.
14
2
94
"Q: Are you building ahead of capacity this year? A: The risk of under investing is greater than the risk of over investing."
3
4
93
ROIC matters. $INTC announcement is much better r/r for semicap than Intel. Why? $INTC takes the risk, Semicap has certainty of high-ROIC, aa'l installed base to drive services, gets paid on front end. INTCs ultimate result will be delayed and could be low ROI or even big losses.
3
8
89
Recall that this transaction was contested by shareholders at the time. Kudos to management who defended the sale by saying 1) this is the second most expensive PE SaaS (edtech?) buyout ever and 2) we suck and are failing. $PS
7
7
91
What are the most hated stocks in the market right now not in any sort of financial distress, growing, profitable, and trading at reasonable valuations? $PYPL $ZI $EXPE $DIS $ETSY $DG what else?
28
4
89
Concise summary of the $DISCK / $WBD bull case by BofA:
3
12
89
When you were bearish all year into a face ripping market and your team is the worst in the league
Looks like Panthers owner David Tepper threw a drink into the crowd…
1K
2K
22K
5
1
89
Excited for these Super Bowl commercials to stock up on new short ideas
Last years crop of 43 public companies who advertised underperformed the S&P by -15.5% through today. (not counting private mkt flops like FTX). An evenly distributed portfolio returned -23% vs -7% for SPY
3
9
87
Application software trading well below pre-pandemic mults (from Gugg's Ostrie). Rest of the pack, not as much.
5
2
87
$ADSK price increases since '19 continue at 5%/year like clockwork:
4
5
85
Bunch of high quality biz with reasonable stated multiples, poor technicals & consensus too high, but also under-earning so actual multiples are OK. They also seem to be the names everyone is too scared to own while foolishly trying to time the bottom. These are called longs.
5
1
84
$MU $KMX forced to turn off capital returns right when returning capital is most enticing.
12
1
83
The S&P 600 index is:
- -22% below 2021 highs
- -2% YTD
- Never entered a new bull mkt w/ S&P500/NASDAQ this year
- 5.4% 10yr CAGR
- Flat for 5yrs back to Sept’18
5
12
84
🚩Narrative violation alert 🚩
Cleveland on weak SSS trends, cannibalization, and potential slowing of store growth for $FND
6
5
82
If you’re uncomfortable owning a bureau through cycle at ANY price I’ll gladly provide liquidity
$TRU isn’t $VRSK / $FICO qual. but God isn’t making more bureaus & they’ve competed rationally for 60yrs. India asset = 💎. 14x depressed EPS (prob <10x ‘25/‘26) is simply too cheap
8
0
79
Wifey doing her best to help $AMZN beat on this 3Q guide. Record Prime Day for SV fam by factor of 2-3x.
8
0
77
What is the cheapest stock you know of on 2024 or 2025 PE/FCF that you think with >80% probability will grow organic Earnings/FCF above nominal GDP for the next decade?
A few $ZI $MKL $LOW $APG $GOOG $CHTR $BRK $PYPL $TSM $SPLK $ARMK $FERG $AMZN
16
6
77
“$ADSK is so critical to the sectors it serves that most burgeoning engineers, architects or contractors are trained on its programs in college. In a field where coordination between different professions is required, the work mandates a de facto industry standard: that's $ADSK.”
2
12
73
HBO Max starting out the year on a strong note:
$DISCK $T $DIS $NFLX $VIAC
3
9
71
Love coming to Omaha, always unexpected and fortuitous conversations had and relationships made that make it worth it. Usually come away with 2-3 good stock ideas to mine. And of course special to be in presence of the undisputed 🐐for as long as he’s able to stay at it.
7
1
75
When a company on your watchlist is inching towards your buy price, then suddenly gets acquired
3
2
73
"Sure its a bad industry w/ LSD growth & increasing competition, but they're better operators, emerging from an investment cycle, will buy gobs of stock for yrs. Yes its levered but incumbents are acting rational & they wont need a major network upgrade for a while."
$CHTR
$TMUS
7
3
72
Oh no, Sheri is screwing over $PARA shareholders and riding into the sunset? She's getting the M&A premium and common shareholders are actually getting more dilution to by SkyDance? Apollo "$26B offer" wasn't rly ironclad? Shocked. I'm just shocked.
8
2
71
Hey friend
@Ross__Hendricks
, just reminding you (as requested) that your negative post on $AMZN marked THE bottom $AMZN in May. It is +36% since. The stock crushed estimates and is +7% AH. TTYL
5
1
71
I personally disagree with this and I think it may be why Buffett missed out on so much of tech. Spreading the data is useful for getting to unit economics, operating leverage, seeing how something in reinvestment mode can be very cheap. Good example would be AMZN for a long time
One of the most underrated WEB quotes:
'If you need to use a computer or calculator to figure it out, you shouldn't buy"
1
9
60
9
2
72
Tom Russo still talking abt Nestle which has compounded at 6% over the last 9 years, trades at a 33% premium to SPY multiple, and has negative volumes but he’s convinced is invincible vs. PL
4
3
71
$CHTR now <200mm FDSO… they bought back 25mm shares last year at prices much higher than the current $560
If they keep attacking the stock at this pace, we will be looking at $100 FCF/share in 4-5 years from sharecount reduction alone
& FCF will grow a lot
2
5
68
$FERG well run, wide perceived moat, crowded hedge fund hotel, trades 16x fwd PE
Organic revenue is declining slightly for the 2nd year as they burn off pandemic resi excess. Leader in fragmented industry where alternatives are abundant and pricing power is extremely limited.
5
3
69
Seeing a company publicly mock a shareholder for believing LT performance targets, which were in numerous investor materials and filings for years, and which mgmt repeatedly used to divert attention from mediocre operating results, is a first for me in this business. $RBA
4
1
66
Awesome setup to buy $ORLY $AZO in '18 setup by GFC auto sales cohort and "cash for clunkers". Ideal auto aftermarket customer group declined LSD for 5yrs before inflecting.
Anything like this today in a different industry where trend is set to reverse or data blurs real trend?
9
1
67
$INTU with 43% trailing Adj. EBITDA margins just let go of 10% of its workforce
4
3
65