Chris Smyth
@Smyth_Chris
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Whitehall Editor of The Times. DMs open
Joined September 2009
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Three quarters of Brits now too poor to marry a foreigner
It is deeply unconservative to say that only people earning above the 73rd percentile of the income distribution can live with who they love. A very very misguided policy.
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Away from Cummings, today's case data makes pretty clear we are on an upward slope again.
Infection rates are now 25% higher than on May 3.
Given what we've been hearing today: what's the plan?
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Breakig: biggest advance yet in Covid treatment announced by Oxford scientists.
Death rate cut by a third in patients on ventilator when given dexamethasone, a cheap steroid.
Probably the best news we have had so far in this pandemic.
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Today is the first day of local election purdah.
So obviously the government will be making no major and politically sensitive policy announcements
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NHS Test & Trace is laying off 6,000 idle contact tracers and allocating the rest to regional teams to work with councils, in acknowledgement that a centralised call handling system isn't the best way to fight local outbreaks
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Tory MP and chair of the intelligence and security committee Julian Lewis has a pop at the company owned by Tory co-chair Ben Elliot in the Commons
"Cleansing British public life of dirty Russian money is not 'Quintessentially' difficult," he says.
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Neil Ferguson of Imperial says his modelling shows that with NHS ICU surge and new national lockdown, Covid-19 demand on hospitals likely to be "within capacity"
This could work...
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Peak Matt Hancock anecdote from Helen MacNamara in spring 2020. She asked how he was coping:
"He reassured me that he was ‘loving responsibility’ and to demonstrate this took up a batsman's stance outside the Cabinet Room, and said, ‘they bowl them at me, I knock them away’”.
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Very gloomy sign - Germany may have to re-tighten lockdown only a week after easing began because the virus is now spreading too fast
UK is watching this experience closely and it's likely to strengthen those urging caution about relaxing lockdown
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Significant move from
@WHO
- they are following Britain in recommending the Oxford AZ vaccine be given 8-12 weeks apart, saying a longer gap "associated with greater vaccine efficacy" and will reach more people.
And recommend for over 65s too
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There are now 3,090 Covid patients in English hospitals.
On March 23, the day lockdown was imposed, there were 3,097
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HMRC figures out today show most pensioners now pay income tax
Up 2m since 2020 to 8.5m. Awkward for Sunak as he makes threat of Labour "retirement tax" central to his campaign
Quite a lot of caveats to his promise of no pensioners paying income tax
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Asking for Covid restrictions now is qualitatively different to asking for them last winter. Then it was to stop utter implosion of NHS. Now it’s to ease a very bad winter.
That’s a very different social bargain.
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Travel into Britain likely to be back to normal for the first time in two years by the end of the week.
Ministers are meeting today to drop passenger locator forms and tests for the unvaccinated - expected pretty imminently
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We have a new YouGov poll soon...
It manages to be even more dramatic than the last one
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New: PHE data shows that two doses of Pfizer vaccine cuts your risk of dying of Covid by 97%
This is up from 80% reduction after one dose. New data on Astrazeneca also shows it is as good as Pfizer after one dose (80% reduction in risk of death; data not yet out for two doses)
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Death figures update: last night only 28 new fatalities recorded.
Alas this is not good news, it is because there are now so many deaths NHS using a 7.30am cut off instead of 1pm.
So govt looking at changing how they are reported 1/2
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Boris Johnson has just told the committee that he would have told businesses from the No 10 podium that it was up to them whether they held un-socially distanced leaving drinks during the pandemic.
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New: Rishi Sunak cleared by Lord Geidt over wife's tax affairs and his US green card.
Ministerial sleaze chief concludes he declared everything he should have and handled potential conflicts of interest properly
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New: The government is proposing a 1% pay rise for NHS staff in 2021-22.
This is going to be explosive after the lack of extra cash in the budget - unions livid and preparing to accuse ministers of failing staff who got the nation through the pandemic.
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Matt Hancock says that "the liberty of all is at stake" when people asked by contact tracers to self-isolate.
Huge emphasis on civic duty to stay at home because reality is it is not feasible to enforce this on mass scale.
And Cummings row couldn't be worse timed
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PM and NHS seem to define new boosters target differently.
Johnson promised all adults "will have the chance to get their booster before the New Year".
NHS "will offer every adult the chance to book" by Dec 31- with millions of jabs actually happening in Jan and Feb
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Sweet Jesus look at these response times for cat2 ambulance response - that's heart attacks and strokes
The target is 18 minutes. Last month ambulances averaged A HOUR AND A HALF
One in ten cat2 calls waited three and a half hours
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PM claimed that concern about asymptomatic transmission is hindsight.
On March 26 Yvonne Doyle of PHE said this was "a crucial issue", that while the extent of it was still unclear "in theory" staff could infect patients this way and so "precautionary principle" needed.
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Boris Johnson still relaxed about the Covid numbers.
He told Cabinet that " our autumn and winter plan continues to keep the virus under control and that hospital admissions remain broadly flat"
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For those asking why we are delaying when we have vaccines: the answer is we have the luxury of *only delaying* because we have vaccines.
Without vaccines, with these numbers we'd be heading back into lockdown
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Kwasi Kwarteng effectively says that fraud and computer scams are not "something people experience in their daily lives" as he defends PM's claim that crime is falling
(which it only is if you exclude fraud)
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Superb revelation in here that Keegan would have returned from holiday earlier to deal with RAAC crisis - but was caught up in last week's air traffic control failure chaos so couldn't get back
NEW: Where was Education Secretary Gillian Keegan as the RAAC crisis unfolded?
She flew to to Spain on Friday August 25th, staying there for six days and returning on Thursday August 31st, sources say, confirmed by her office
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Whitty actually answers
@BethRigby
question about biggest regret, saying it was not speeding up testing capacity
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Matt Hancock acknowledges for the first time that official hopes for vaccine take up was 75%
It's now 95% among 75-79 year olds
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Patrick Vallance mischievously points out that flattening of cases came as people cut back on socialising "as initially suggested by Jenny Harries and Chris [Whitty] before Christmas"
Both of those suggestions of course caused much anger among MPs and some ministers
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Ouch. Official statistics chief says of government testing data: "The aim seems to be to show the largest possible number of tests even at the expense of understanding".
"not surprising that given their inadequacy data on testing are so widely criticised and often mistrusted"
Sir David Norgrove has today replied to
@MattHancock
, Secretary of State for Health and Social Care regarding the Government’s COVID-19 testing data
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Magnificent answer from Chris Whitty when asked if the lockdown will have done enough to allow it to be lifted on December 2:
"That is what the prime minister has stated he intends to do".
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7 million people dragged into higher tax bands, OBR now says
Fiscal drag now due to raise £41.1 billion, twice what Hunt's 4p NI cuts raise
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"The idea that the lockdowns caused the problems with things like cancer is complete inversion of reality. If we had not had the lockdown, the full system would have been in deep, deep trouble", Whitty says
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Good line from
@DamianGreen
opposing tiers, citing constituent saying "if the Government imposes stupid rules, people will stop obeying the sensible rules as well... Since then, the national debate has moved on to how big a scotch egg has to be to constitute a substantial meal."
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There is Cabinet meeting this afternoon and lots of talk in Whitehall that announcement will come after
Silence from the centre
Some say July 4. But intriguing suggestion from some that the date set may be after the summer. Or even reshuffle
But something is definitely up
Westminster rumour mill in overdrive that Sunak is about to call election for July 4. May yet prove to be unfounded but No 10 currently silent on the question
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Kwasi Kwarteng disagrees with Sunak and Javid to back PM over Savile accusation.
"Entirely legitimate... perfectly reasonable... absolutely in scope..." he tells Trevor Phillips
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Confused about what the rules are where you live?
Look them up with our postcode searcher
We built it because the government hasn't.
New:
@BorisJohnson
need never worry about not knowing what the local lockdown restrictions are ever again.
Here
@thetimes
we've built him a postcode lookup with all the rules and restrictions. Give it a spin:
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Chris Whitty is raising the alarm in government about thousands more middle aged people than usual dying of heart problems.
He fears they have missed out on preventative drugs like statins when people avoided GPs during the pandemic
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Latest U-turn: Hunt has now ditched Truss's opposition to energy windfall tax
"I am not against the principle of taxing profits that are genuine windfalls... nothing is off the table"
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Not sure that saying "I'd been planning to miss this D-Day event for weeks and no one thought it was a problem" is quite the riposte the PM seems to think it is
PM speaking about leaving D-Day early.
Says “itinerary was set weeks ago before the GE campaign” and apologises again > Q as to why it was always scheduled for PM to leave the event early, regardless of the general election.
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All of the of coronavirus antibody tests ordered by the government have been rejected for use
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ONS reporting that 79 per cent of those who tested positive for coronavirus showed no symptoms.
This could mean far more people are infected than previously thought - or it could mean that the test is not accurate enough to screen the general population.
Vital to resolve
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V tough benefits crackdown promised by Hunt:
Not only will jobless refusing work lose benefits entirely, but they will also lose entitlements linked to receipt of Universal Credit
So no free NHS prescriptions, dental care, warm homes discounts, etc
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Sunak tells Musk he wants people to be more willing to give up "the security of a regular paycheck and be comfortable with failing" to start up companies
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John Newton firmly pinning responsibility on abandoning contact tracing in March on government, not Public Health England
@CommonsSTC
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Sunak's interview with
@SamCoatesSky
just now suggested he didn't think yesterday afternoon's D Day event mattered because it wasn't British
Says he "participated in all the British events with British veterans" and only skipped "the international leaders' event"
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Chris Whitty doesn't seem to be buying South African data suggesting Omicron milder or that cases peaking.
He told Cabinet "no reliable evidence" of SA peak
And still "too early to say how severe" Omicron is but "we can expect a significant increase in hospitalisations"
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Conservative voters strongly back ban on trans conversion therapy, despite Johnson’s U-turn on the issue, polling for The Times finds
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Another great answer from JVT on summer holidays. "The more elaborate your plans" the bigger risk that they will be cancelled.
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The irony is that the Tory MPs railing against Chris Whitty last week may now find that their hopes of avoiding new restrictions depend on whether people did in fact heed the chief medical officer's advice to cut down on socialising
Boris Johnson's best hope of avoiding tighter Covid restrictions is that people have not been listening to his advice
🔍 Analysis from
@Smyth_Chris
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Green list of 12 quarantine-free countries announced today - but it looks like all of them currently ban tourists
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McVey says civil service rainbow lanyards and staff networks must go
“Working in the civil service is all about leaving your political views at the building entrance. Trying to introduce them by the back door via lanyards should not happen.”
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Antibody test due to be evaluated "this week" and then available to order on Amazon, PHE says.
3.5 million ordered so far and more on the way
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Senior No 10 source putting a positive spin on struggles to fill vacant ministerial posts:
"Maybe this is a good opportunity to slim down government. We are focusing on delivering and the economy and this is an opportunity to do less better”
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Whitty points out there is at least a compensation for the speed at which Omicron is spreading.
Says it will probably "peak really quite fast. My anticipation is it may then come down faster than previous peaks"
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Met Commissioner Mark Rowley as good as says attendees at CCHQ party will be fined.
“I think we can all guess which way it will go,” he tells
@TheNewsAgents
“We can all see the colourful nature of the video and how much it tells a story way beyond the original photo”
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Shami Chakrabarti offers unexpected backing for Rishi Sunak's plan to block Scottish gender recognition law
While saying she is "sympathetic" to law's aims, "we may have a clash between the position in the UK wide legislation and the position in Scotland" she tells BBC R4 Today
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Whitty takes a swipe at the Treasury when it comes to Covid outbreaks in care homes sparked by staff.
"We didn't spot the effects of people not having adequate sick pay - it's one of those things that's obvious when you when you see it"
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Only 14 Tory MPs spoke in Sue Gray debate, and not all of those were entirely backing the PM
The last 16 interventions were all by opposition MPs as so many Conservatives had left by the end
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Hugo Keith begins by asking Matt Hancock to admit that his "pandemic diaries" are not in fact diaries but was written up after the event
Hancock admits this
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Constitutional historian Peter Hennessy gives Boris Johnson both barrels:
"Johnson has more disdain for the constitution than any other PM…
"He hasn’t got a single feel for either proper behaviour, proper procedure, not a single nerve end.
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Geidt highlights two decisions by the chancellor which could have been a conflict with wife's non-dom status.
But says the first was declared and second did not affect her.
Not a huge surprise, given Geidt had already said before the inquiry that Sunak had done nothing wrong
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We may not get any death figures today, as they are looking at moving to publishing first thing in the morning.
Aim is to give more time to collate NHS data and inform families before ages and locations made public 2/2
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Dept of Health says that "Anything higher would require re-prioritisation", which sounds like Whitehall-speak for the Treasury wouldn't give us any more money
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We did not need a 150-page report to tell us that Boris Johnson was late to lock down, that Test and Trace failed and that vaccines were a success.
But we did need it to start the process of ensuring that the epic failure of the British state to last March never happens again
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Hancock says that second dose appointments for Pfizer jabs booked for after Monday will be cancelled so more first jabs can be given.
Second doses will be postponed for later months
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Chris Whitty on new variant: "Relatively localised, but it has spread to some other countries in very small numbers... the sensible thing at this stage is to be precautionary, and then, if things look good, ease back"
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Latest state of government communication: asked if she can guarantee there won’t be any more changes to tax plans in mini budget, Chloe Smith, the work and pensions secretary, says: “ I'm not in a position to answer your question this afternoon”
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Dominic Raab was urged to change “bullying” behaviour by heads of all three departments he ran, inquiry has been told
Excl with
@matt_dathan
and
@hzeffman
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Covid cases have stopped falling.
Seven-day UK average ticks up for the first time since January 4. Now averaging 93,240 after today's data.
A lip on the downward slope, start of a new rise, or are we settling into a high plateau?
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The full damning evidence of
@theresecoffey
's hatred for the Oxford comma
Department of Health civil servants beware
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The seven-day average for Covid confirmed cases has fallen below 10,000 for the first time since the end of September.
It now stands at 9,688
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Only "large scale testing and contact tracing" will allow lockdown to end and the economy restarts, Ferguson says
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Grant Shapps says if Tories want someone to fight the war on woke "don't vote for me".
Bold pitch, especially given
@PennyMordaunt
forced onto the defensive on gender today
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Flu vaccine as well as Covid jabs set to be come compulsory for all NHS and care staff, government sources says. Consultation to be launched imminently.
That's more than two million people about to find that two vaccines become a condition of employment.
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GP rebellion brewing over new vaccination strategy.
@TheBMA
says it is "grossly unfair" to elderly patients to cancel their second dose appointments next week and is encouraging doctors to defy NHS advice.
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MP very close to PM says: "It’s over.. [but] he thinks in classical terms, for him there is no greater honour in resigning than being killed... if you are going to die, go down fighting"
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Excl: The Treasury should be split up and the job of cabinet secretary abolished, a government-ordered review of Whitehall will recommend
Francis Maude has delivered calling for a radical shake up of the civil service, now being studied by ministers
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Whitty ends a punchy evidence session by insisting that every chief medical officer back to the 1850s would tell people to scale back socialising in a pandemic.
"I don't actually think that any ministers feeling are treading on their toes on this one. This is my job."
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Good stat from
@TorstenBell
at Treasury committee on pensions tax breaks
"Nearly as many bankers as doctors" will benefit from budget changes
25% of those with £1m pension pots are doctors
20% work in finance
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As he steps down as chief scientific adviser, Patrick Vallance expresses frustration at claim Covid policy was “following the science”
He said this was “absolutely too much of a shorthand” and “can't possibly be right, in the sense that the science is an input is not an output”
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Risk that the economic hit of long-term lockdown could harm health more than Covid-19 is "very valid consideration", says Ferguson.
But govt not focusing on that, only on ensuring the NHS can cope
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A record 78,610 Covid cases today. UKHSA says there will be "staggering" increase in the coming days.
Head of NHS England says they are preparing for a wave of hospitalisations "as big or even bigger than the previous wave this time last year".
Happy Christmas everyone.
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UK cases down for fifth day in a row. England hospitalisations still flat. London hospitalisations down for eight days in a row. All good
But big rise in numbers in hospital to 17,120 - sounds like its getting ever harder to discharge patients as care homes / local NHS struggle
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Penny Mordaunt shouting "stand up and fight!" at Tory party conference, with the air of someone slightly disappointed that security have confiscated the sword
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Now Whitty blasts people who say we are focusing too much on Covid over cancer and other health conditions: "This is sometimes said by people who have no understanding of health at all, but I don't think it said anyone who's serious."
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BMA head Phil Banfield rejects Sunak's pay deal
Calls it "yet another pay cut in real terms" and says PM "missed a huge opportunity to put a credible proposal on the table"
As well as junior doctors, consultants "are likely to continue to take industrial action", he says
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Sunak urges doctors to call off strikes
But warns them: "Today’s offer is final. There will be no more talks on pay... No amount of strikes will change our decision"
Not sure that will go down well
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World tennis No 1 Daniil Medvedev could be barred from playing at Wimbledon unless he provides "assurances" he does not support Putin and does not wave the Russian flag.
Sports minister Nigel Huddleston says he is in "discussions" with All England Club on Russian players
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Cummings uses success of vaccine procurement - run centrally outside normal structures - to slate the "disaster" of the established bureaucracy.
But ignores success of the roll-out, which has been done entirely through existing NHS structures with central govt at arm's length
Cummings has also used this appearance to put on record the manner in which he, Simon Case & Vallance took a grip of the vaccine roll-out. This, of course, the stand out success for govt & the thing that’s helped cushion PM and party (see polls) from Covid u-turns/mistake
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Whitty says that very few unvaccinated are anti-vaxxers. As well as convincing them that jabs work and don't have serious side effects, he says convenience is key.
When he was last on the wards and treating unvaxxed, "an awful lot of them said they hadn't got round to it yet"
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Truss accuses Chris Whitty of pushing smoking ban out of belief that "government knows best"
Interesting choice to take on CMO directly
Latest favourability ratings
Whitty +48
Truss -50
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Aggressive subtweeting of Liz Truss ahead of their meeting tomorrow
I am sick and tired of trickle-down economics. It has never worked.
We're building an economy from the bottom up and middle out.
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NHS to cancel all routine surgery from April 15 for three months.
As many patients as possible to be send home.
aim is to free up a third of 100k beds in England
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"We are spending 30 per cent less person on our health service than the Germans are." Stevens says. Punches are not being pulled here
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Before lockdown 29 million people in England were living under tier 1 rules.
From next month just 714,000 will be
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Daily deaths now 98 by seven-day average - first time below three figures since start of October
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London daily hospital admissions have now doubled in three weeks. That's a pretty clear signal that Omicron is driving a surge of serious illness.
But they are still less than a third of their January peak, so the big question for the whole country: when will they stop rising?
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