Sharp Football Analysis
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NFL analytics, betting insights, fantasy football analysis, game picks & props using advanced predictive models & data from Warren Sharp & a team of experts
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Winning seasons by Texas teams since 2012:
7 - Texans
5 - Cowboys
Trips to playoffs:
6 - Texans
4 - Cowboys
Playoff wins:
4 - Texans
2 - Cowboys
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Tom Brady is 1,154 passing yards short of the all-time record held by Drew Brees.
Brady averaged 289.6 passing yards per game in 2020.
That same pace would have him breaking the record in his return to Foxboro vs the Patriots in Week 4.
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Cheapest Offensive Lines in the NFL:
29. Seattle - $28.9 million
30. Miami - $27.4 million
31. Chicago - $27.3 million
32. Pittsburgh - $23.7 million
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David Tepper, the richest owner in the NFL, bought the Panthers in 2018. Since then:
Carolina is 22-43 (fifth-worst record)
0 winning seasons
0 playoff appearances
They have won only five games for three straight seasons.
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44% of all Tua's first down pass attempts have resulted in a first down or touchdown, the highest rate in the league
31% of the first and second down plays against the Lions have resulted in a first down or touchdown, the highest rate in the league
via
@LordReebs
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43.9% of all Tua Tagovailoa’s 1st down pass attempts have resulted in a 1st down or touchdown, the highest rate in the league
31.0% of the 1st and 2nd down plays against the Lions have resulted in a 1st down or touchdown, the highest rate in the league
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The
@Seahawks
have five Eastern Time Zone games this season:
WK1: @ ATL
WK4: @ MIA
WK9: @ BUF
WK12: @ PHI
WK15: @ WAS
Since drafting Russell Wilson in 2012, Seattle has a league-best 19-6 (.760) record on the road in the Eastern Time Zone.
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The league swings between "no celebrating" and "yea celebrating is cool" every 3 years.
they flagged Tyreek for taunting
the NFL is sick get lost
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Carson Wentz career earnings: $128.7 million
Record: 46-46-1
What's next for Wentz?
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Teams that ranked top-5 in third down avoidance in 2021:
1. KC- made AFC Conference Championship
2. TB- second best record in the NFL
3. GB- No. 1 seed and first round bye
4. SF- made NFC Championship Game
5. LAR- Super Bowl Champion
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It's HERE!!
The 2020 NFL Schedule Grid 👀
• color coded w day & location
• formatted to save as phone background
Plus deep analysis:
• full article on the 2020 schedule
• toughest & easiest schedule
• tons of insights & nuggets
Read:
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The New York Giants...
Are the ONLY TEAM in the NFL to not have even 1 week where they sat above .500 at any point
In any of the last 5 YEARS
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2024 NFL Bye Schedule...
Weeks 12 and 14 not ideal for fantasy football.
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Top 5 DL Pass Rush Win Rates in Week 1:
1. Chicago Bears, 71%
2. Washington Commanders, 67%
3. Denver Broncos, 64%
4. Las Vegas Raiders, 64%
5. Cincinnati Bengals, 54%
See all the stats and rankings for pass rush and run stopping DLs:
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With Tua on the field the Dolphins are 2nd in EPA per play, only behind the Chiefs
They are also 2nd in yards with Tua on the field, only behind the Bills
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He's getting paid $18 million a year to do this, by the way
Jets are down both starting CBs and Sean Payton is calling pitchy pitchy woo woo behind the line of scrimmage
this has been one of the worse play call games I've ever seen from Sean Payton
an epic disaster
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Just slid the ball into his back pocket like it was his wallet
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The Dolphins built a Madden roster
Tyreek Hill - 40 career TDs outside the redzone (next closest player has 28)
Chase Edmonds - 36% of career TDs from outside the redzone
Raheem Mostert - 50%
Cedrick Wilson - 63%
Jaylen Waddle - has that dawg in him
🎙️:
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There are 4 teams playing 3 straight road games w/o a bye:
• ARI
• NO
• NE
• WAS
Such teams are:
G1: 35-35 (50%), 39-31 ATS (56%)
G2: 30-40 (43%), 31-39 ATS (44%)
G3: 30-40 (43%), 32-38 ATS (46%)
Over that same period, road teams in general win 43% but cover 51% ATS.
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Roman Wilson may be the anti-Diontae Johnson:
- Converted 53.9% of red zone targets into TDs (1st)
- Caught 66.7% of deep targets (4th)
- 2.68 yards per route (14th)
- 2.19 yards per team pass attempt (15th)
Roman Wilson will fit right in with Pittsburgh
the anti-Diontae Johnson
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Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson were both drafted in 2018
Allen has played in 7 more games than Jackson
Comp.%
Allen 62.5%
Jackson 63.7%
Avg yards per att
Allen 7.2
Jackson 7.4
TD%
Allen 5.4
Jackson 6.1
Career Earnings
Allen $85M with $119M due over next 3 years
Jackson $32M 👀
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The Kansas City Chiefs and the Pittsburgh Steelers are the ONLY teams to not have a losing record over the last decade 👀
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Patrick Mahomes is the best playoff quarterback in the NFL the last 4 years
Out of 28 playoff quarterbacks, he ranks:
2nd in EPA/att (+0.17)
3rd in success rate (48%)
4th in YPA (8.0)
But the haters will call him a choker. OK.
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The Patriots have not converted a red zone possession into a touchdown since Week 9 (0-for-6 over that span)
Since Week 7, the Patriots are 31st in the league in touchdown rate per drive (10.1%), ahead of only the Broncos (10%)
Full Preview
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Join us in welcoming
@pamelam35
to the Sharp Football Analysis team! 🎉
Pam brings her wealth of experience and sharp betting insights to our 2024 NFL coverage.
We're thrilled to have her on board—keep an eye out for her first article coming soon at
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NFL Week 1 early lines are out...
Anything stand out?
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Meet the new Jets WR Malachi Corley:
- Similar style to Deebo Samuel
- Over 1,000 yards in the last two seasons, 70+ receptions each year.
- 69.4% yardage after catch; highest in his class.
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Over the last two years, Tony Pollard has averaged +0.50 rushing yards over expectation
Zeke? -0.01 rushing yards over expectation
That means Zeke is a replacement-level running back.
He’s not gaining ANYTHING beyond what would be expected based upon blockers & defenders
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And that system is "be good"
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The Buccaneers trade up and draft OT Cody Mauch with the 48th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft
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Detroit has allowed opponents to score a touchdown on a league-high 31.7% of drives
46% of the Bills drives have reached the red zone or scored prior, the highest rate in the NFL
Josh Allen has converted 50% of his passing attempts on third down, 4th in the NFL
via
@LordReebs
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Rich Hribar's updated fantasy RB rankings
Notable ranking adjustments:
Cam Akers: 20 to 17
Josh Jacobs: 23 to 26
Saquon Barkley: 11 to 9
Full RB rankings with reasoning and stats:
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Since 2012, the Jaguars spent $1.64 BILLION in free agency.
No team has spent more
No team has lost more
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Wednesday's in the Bengals cafeteria.
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Marvin Harrison has the route-running savviness of his father but in a 6-foot-4 frame
He will be the most coveted receiver to enter the draft since Calvin Johnson in 2007
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Nolan Smith just ran a 4.44 40 yard dash 😳
He also recorded a 41.5 inch vertical earlier today
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Jerry Jeudy did more work in this segment than he did on the field (5 targets, 3 receptions, 14 yds)
And there's more: Jerry Jeudy started dancing behind Steve Smith Sr. during the next segment.
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Blitz rate against Kyler Murray on 3rd down with vs without Deandre Hopkins:
Murray was blitzed on 23.9% of 3rd downs the weeks Hopkins played
Murray was blitzed on 45.7% of 3rd downs the weeks that Hopkins was out
Opposing teams sent the house on 3rd Down without Hopkins
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Betting recommendations:
268 Minnesota Vikings Under *SPLIT* (0.5 units on each) : under 24 first half -115 and under 48 full game [computer total]
Two-team teaser: 468 Minnesota Vikings +8 to 463 New Orleans Saints +8 (1 unit)
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gobble gobble
✅ T.J. Hockenson over 44.5 receiving yards
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Out of the backfield, Jahmyr Gibbs averaged a class-high 3.3 receptions per game over his college career at Georgia Tech and Alabama
This past year, he was targeted on 21.4% of his routes (second in the class), catching 44-of-52 targets for 444 yards and three touchdowns
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To date, 22 NFL players (9 starters) have opted-out of the 2020 NFL season because of concerns related to the COVID-19 pandemic
See the full list:
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Is Devon Witherspoon the most NFL ready CB in the draft? 📈👀
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Rarely good to trade up to draft a QB
#1
overall and then fire everyone involved in that decision.
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Potential first round pick Calijah Kancey was MOVING in his 40 yard dash 👀
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Davante Adams averaged more PPR points per game than any WR since Jerry Rice in 1995.
More standard points per game for any WR since Randy Moss in 2007.
@LordReebs
takes a top-down view of the WR production from 2020...
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The Russell Wilson-Nathanial Hackett Broncos got the worst possible referee assignment for the Sunday Night Football game vs the 49ers
Referee Shawn Hochuli is averaging 15 penalties per game
And Denver leads the NFL averaging 12.5 penalties per game
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Among all TEs in this draft class, Michael Mayer led the group in:
Share of team targets (31.5%)
Share of team receptions (31.9%)
Share of team receiving touchdowns (36%)
Share of team air yards (38.8%)
Rate of targets per route run (35.7%)
Yards per team pass attempt (2.39)
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Betting recommendations:
452 Cleveland Browns first half Under 22.5 -115 (0.75 units)
454 Jacksonville Jaguars first half Under 23 -115 (0.75 units)
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Betting recommendation:
472 Seattle Seahawks first half Under 24 -125 (at FD, -115 at DK) (0.75 units) (23.5 is ok if you don't have 24) [computer total]
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Which running back units are the best in the league?
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Betting recommendation:
468 Minnesota Vikings +1.5 (0.75 units) and sprinkle alt line MIN -3 +150 at DK (0.25 units)
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When throwing in less than 2.5 seconds over five yards downfield, look at where Zach Wilson ranked in the NFL:
1st in accuracy, 10th in success rate, 12th in YPA, and 14th in EPA/att
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Bill WR Stefon Diggs has NOT shown up to mandatory minicamp 👀
Head Coach Sean McDermott is "very concerned"
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Announcing Free Week 2020, where all betting recommendations from Warren Sharp & our premium fantasy articles will be 100% FREE for all followers:
» Learn more:
» Picks & Articles: , use password: sharpfreeweek
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Here is the No. 1 team with the highest YAC/reception, by year:
2021: SF (6.6 YAC/rec)
2020: SF (6.2 YAC/rec)
2019: SF (6.6 YAC/rec)
2018: SF (7.0 YAC/rec)
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Justin Fields has been pressured on 50% of his dropbacks...
...the highest rate in the NFL
That's bad news against this Cowboys defense
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The Eagles are a perfect 6-0 on the moneyline and 6-0 ATS when John Hussey officiates their games
Home teams with John Hussey are 75-38 since the start of the 2016 season, a 67% win rate. That’s the best home-field record for any official over that span
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Overall in 2021, the 49ers were still injury prone. Not much has changed.
Over the entire Kyle Shanahan tenure:
2021: third-most injured team
2020: most injured team
2019: sixth-most injured team
2018: fourth-most injured team
2017: 10th-most injured team
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Rich Hribar's updated fantasy WR rankings
Notable adjustments:
A.J Brown: 11 to 13
Marquise Brown: 24 to 17
DK Metcalf: 17 to 24
Full fantasy WR rankings:
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42% of the Seattle drives have reached the red zone or scored prior, trailing only the Chiefs (48.7%) and Bills (45.7%)
The Seahawks have scored the most touchdowns from outside of the red zone (14)
via
@LordReebs
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The Chiefs were the most efficient team at bypassing third downs on early downs
Last year 29% of their early down plays resulted in first downs the best rate of any team in the NFL
Only 18% of their offensive plays were third downs, the lowest rate of any team in the NFL
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The Giants used 11 personnel on 84.4% of their runs (3rd in the league)
Which allowed Saquon Barkley to have 11 carries against six or fewer defenders in the box, which opened up some room for him
He tallied 155 of his rushing yards on those carries
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Xavier Legette 📈
- 74.5% of his career yardage in 2023
- Impressive physically: 6'1", 221 lbs, 4.39 forty speed
- Accounted for 44.8% of team's air yards (highest)
- Showcased versatility with strong slot performance
- 4.0 yards per route against man coverage (highest)
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The Ravens:
• had a great 2019 season
• return almost all key assets
• already beefed up their DL
and they have 5 picks in the first 106 of the 2020 NFL draft.
Examine their roster, limited needs & analyze what they should do with their draft picks.
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Since Dak Prescott entered the league in 2016, Dallas has ranked 29th in the league in red zone passing rate (48.1%) and 30th in passing rate inside of the 10-yard line (38.8%). 30th and 32nd in 2019.
@LordReebs
looks at Quarterback Red Zone Reliance
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The opening MNF game of the season will feature the Ravens at Raiders.
Baltimore has a 10-3 record in season openers under John Harbaugh, winning five in a row by a combined score of 177-26.
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Murray vs the Rams has completed just 58% of his passes for 6.2 Y/A with 7 TD passes and 8 INTs
The Cardinals have trailed for 80% of their offensive snaps, the highest rate in the NFL
They have trailed by double digits for 38% of their snaps, the highest rate in the NFL
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The most expensive receiving corps (wide receivers + tight ends) in 2022:
1. $72.2 million - Patriots
2. $53.8 million - Jaguars
3. $49.5 million - Chargers
4. $47.4 million - Giants
It’s truly wild. The Patriots are nearly $20 million more than even the No. 2 group in the NFL
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With no added WRs in the draft, Davante Adams is set to rollover the end of his 2019 season. Over the final 10 games of 2019 back from injury, Adams accounted for:
*33.4% of the GB targets
*34.4% of the Receptions
*40.5% of the ReYds
*50.0% of the ReTD
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Frank Reich has yet to have the same starting quarterback in back-to-back years as head coach.
2022: Matt Ryan
2021: Carson Wentz
2020: Philip Rivers
2019: Jacoby Brissett
2018: Andrew Luck
Reich's record despite the QB movement: 37-28 (57%). With two trips to the playoffs
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New add: Sharp Football Betting Recommendation
451 Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 (buy 0.5 -125 if you have +3) (0.75 units)
» Picks & Articles: , use password: sharpfreeweek
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FYI: The QR code for the Raiders Week 18 matchup directs their fans here... 😂🤣
should we REALLY make our schedule release video in the sims?
yes yes yesyes
yesyes yes yes yes
yes yes yes yes yes
yes yesyes yes yes
yes yesye yes yes
yes yes yesyes
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In two games versus Pittsburgh this season, Baker Mayfield was pressured on 34.5% of his dropbacks and sacked on 8.6%.
In all other games, he was under pressure on 25.4% of his dropbacks and sacked on 3.8%.
Digging into the Browns at Steelers matchup...
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The 2024 NFL schedule features a schedule in which there are 101 games played out of 272 (37%) where one team has a rest advantage over their opponent.
The most in NFL history.
Full analysis of teams helped or hurt by the NFL schedule:
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Net Rest Differential
Top 5 (Best)
1. BUF
2. DET
3. DEN
4. DAL
5. TB
Bottom 5 (Worst)
28. NYJ
29. NO
30. NE
31. HOU
32. GB
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The most expensive receiving corps (wide receivers plus tight ends) in 2022:
1. $72.2 million - Patriots
2. $53.8 million - Jaguars
3. $49.5 million - Chargers
4. $47.4 million - Giants
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The Chargers have now allowed 30 or more points in three straight games, their longest streak since 2007.
The Titans have not scored over 30 points in 20 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the league.
Full game preview here:
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