Twitter handle of Ghana's Former Minister of Finance (2013 - 2016); Dep. Fin Minister (2009 -2012).
Balance Sheet ethos: all life is a balance, be pragmatic
Reminder: Russia-Ukraine war started in only late Feb (one month ago) and being blamed for past 4-year's failures? God forbid for a prolonged war yet how ready are we for its full impact in the weeks and months?
I taught a GIMPA cyber class today on Public Sector Budgeting and Budget Management. I wish to commend them: punctual and attentive; ending with fantastic insight during Q&A. Hopeful, Ghana!!
Gist of HE's speech? Seems economic mess is so deep that it will take 6 years to 2028 to unravel and resolve?
i) Beyond normal 3-yr (or 4-yr extended) IMF Program?
ii) Current Govt exits in 2 yrs & bequeaths 4 yrs of heavy lifting to next Govt from 2025? What is being negotiated?
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Ecobank Ghn Ltd's, Guaranty Trust Bank (Ghn) Ltd's (GTB Ghn) & United Bank for Africa (Ghana) Ltd's (UBA Ghn) Viability Ratings (VRs) to 'ccc' from 'b- The rating actions follow the downgrade of Ghana's Long-Term IDR to 'CCC' from 'B-' on 10 Aug 2022.
Wrong!! My good brother. I have been challenging anyone to cite the provsion in the Customs Act and relevant Tariff # that imposed such taxes. He or she can also cite the "amendments" by the current administration. None to date but still on standby.
The domestic $ bond was at 6% (better than all our Sovereign Bond rates) & was to finance self-financing projects with $ earnings to repay (same as Terminal 3). Also, same as using part ($250m) of the 2014 Bond as seed capital for GIIF. Who took over these funds?
Under
@JDMahama
&
@SethTerkper
, interest payments on the dollar denominated bonds issued in 2016 was $311m, and estimated interest on other private external debt was $290m. This left $500m of interest on bilateral and multilateral debt. Did these guys knew what they were doing?🙆🏽♂️
'If you can read this, thank a teacher". Recently, at a funeral in my hometown, Somanya (E/R, Ghana), I had the honour of seating next to a my favourie elementary (basic) school teachers (Mr Kpodzi, in picture). As you can imagine we said a few things about moulding character!!!
Borrowing and infrastructure: gratefu to the Veep for highlighling the NDC's projects in the debt stock. He just debunked the notion that our borrowing did not have any significant underlying assets or infrastructure. Remember, there was denial of their existence not long ago.
Trade surplus: what else to expect with 1 oil field and 3 fields from 2017 to date. A strong BoP means resilient reserves and currency. Since COVID largesse was about $6 billion in only 2020/21, how come the cedi is reeling so much?
With all due respect, assets match liabilities, with the apparent success sitting on a pile of loans. In reality, what seems unmatched in the 4th Republic is a default & exchange/rescturing of our domestic/external debt that could burden present & future generations beyond 2040.
A) Hindsight beautifully 2020 in 2022? Alternative to not using part of 2015 Bond ($200m) to redeem $750m/2007, fully due 2 yrs away in 2017? We also used $550m Sinking Fund (own oil cash) to repay rest of $550m (incl. $200m by current govt, on maturity). Worth a mention.
One of the most outrageous bonds out there must be the $1bn lent to Ghana in 2015 at 10.75% interest with a $400m guarantee from the World Bank.
A buyer of the bond in 2015 is already guaranteed to get $1.15bn. And they are still 'owed' $1bn, and $860m of interest payments / 🧵
Congratulations to Prof Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang. We salute and support her; ready as the Party with the most ideas to move on with her partnership of JM. T-he winning ticket!!!
After life in public office, I do a bit of consulting, I work with multi-lateral institutions and I lecture at the UGBS. I think it is important to talk to the youth of our country becuase they are the future leaders so I do that
Go & register to vote, overcome impediments patiently to prove the value of what no one should take away from you: your citizen's responsibility and right to vote. Be careful, though: wear face mask to cover nose & mouth; wash hands or sanitize; respect social distancing rules.
RIP, Sir. Another emotional moment when a national and global tribute is also so personal. The HIGHEST point in our relationship was a HUMBLE one: approving my post-graduate studies. Never dreamt then that I will ever step in your over-sized Minister shoes
A) 2023 Budget alert. Parliament will spend less time debating the Budget, likely shorter than last year. Yet, for Ghanaians many keen observers, 2023 Budget bears weight of (a) the likely contents of an IMF Program; and (b) a path to redeeming the economy. It is that important!
I have just been appointed a part time lecturer at the University of Ghana Business School. Looking forward to exciting interactions with students during my Public Policy lectures. In 2017 I did same as a Corporate Executive in Residence at UGBS similar to a visiting lecturer
Laudable as social benefit & pride too in Budget Responsibility Act (extract of Public Financial Mgt Act). Reminder: such major subsidy, to increase deficit, borrowing & debt didn't feature in COVID-19 package sent to Parliament. Does it still authorise spending ref Constitution?
NDC social intervention programs are not always about handouts. They are about how hospitals, clinics, rural roads, schools (school-under-trees/E blocks), bore holes, bridges etc can do to change lives in a more sustainable (not transient) manner. Infra, not consumption, is King.
The rolling back of once-popular social & fiscal policies is yet another clear indication of their unplanned & unsustainable nature.
Government reintroduces admission quota to Colleges of Education via @
@coverghananews
Looking forward to next Semester & meeting my Legon (UGBS) students, mostly of young, energetic and perceptive. Exciting part is stretching minds to keep pace with the thinking that goes round. Hope School Adm has worked hard to improve "new-normal" Web-based (Zoom) interaction.
When you put Budget resources into investment, you do'nt always get immediate praise for forgoing consumption ... you may even pay dearly for it. Reason those who prioritise consumption should not easily wish away & grab the eventual public benefit & awareness for investment.
A] Important to clarify that, under the CDB 2013 Western Corridor [gas plant & pipeline] and security project loans, we [a] sold crude at open market value; and [b] paid proceeds to underwrite the loans into an Esrow Debt Service Reserve Account [DSRA].
A) The point? NDC accused of going to IMF (2014) but NPP continued the Program, did not opt for only advice, but took balance of $988m. After "exit" (2018), NPP rushes to IMF for $1b CoVID cash & (2022) SDR $1b, is used to reduce the deficit, not invest.
A) Agyapa MIF will elevate Ghn's EU Anti-Money Laundering (AML) risks. Recall in May, EU put Ghn on Anti-Money Laundering (AML) list. Due to COVID-19, it deferred implementation to Oct 1. Instead of MoF & Parliament removing stigma, we chose defiance w/Sovereign Tax Haven move.
30% fall in staff wages to help fiscal consolidation? Total Expd: Budget (c135.6b), Rev. Budget (c133.8b), hence reduction is c1.8b (only 0.0133%). Note, total wages & allowances rise, not decrease: Budget (ghc35.8b) vrs Rev. Budget (c37.9b) = c2.1b or 0.059%. Waiting for 2023B.
1) We have always secured an IMF Program, 17 and counting. We should just work harder at it, as has been past experiences, and not raise expectations of getting a "quick" one, which is also a feature of all past Programs. The focus must be a "sound" Program.
One event from my Public Policy and Public Financial Mgt (PFM) classes in UGBS, Legon. Healthy and interactive discussions in graduate school sessions.
A) Hi Gabby, not to be intimidated by asking for expenditure debate (yes, incl. FSHS) as part of the way fwd in getting us out of "Caaa" grade. A fair or foul recall from 3 yrs ago (better grades) of Hon Minister asking those with the means to pay for FSHS? Still relevant?
Apart from advising Govt to do a Senchi dialogue what is JM’s alternative policy on the economy? His Finance Minister Seth Terkper has the answer: Stop funding the free SHS and payment of allowances for teacher trainees. He said this on Starr FM.
A) Common view is that the JM era had the most new taxes. These are levies we pay to date, with shaded year of intro since 2013. Some pre-2017 (eg., nuisance ESLA & FSL shd have gone but remain w/ increased rates, sm depositors owed & in place to pay collaterized loan till 2030+
A) To the serious, jokers & trolls, I am no coward tho' cautious. As VAT Coordinator (a) I faced Kumipreko etc (with my 2 kids, yes); (b) had chance to leave Ghn but stayed thro' VAT reintroduction b4 I left. VAT survived distractions & is most stable tax base. Yen ara asase ne.
i) Hi Koku, doing well? Ready to engage, been discussing a few (also what we did). 3 egs:
i) if you borrow, learn to repay (Sinking Fund & debt/ratings wahala);
ii) crisis are inevitable, prepare, w/ fields (Stabex/Contingency Fund, my crisis is bigger than yours is fallacy).
I just want simple answers to my questions about the economy: My senior brother, Seth Tekper, given the opportunity, what would you do differently? Pls pls pls convince me I beg u🙏🙏🙏
A) An e-levy reflective window. When VAT came on board some 20 yrs ago, it exempted basic goods & services, esp. basic educx, health & agric. Yet it was said to be regressive (higher tax burden on the poor). Today's e-levy proposal will tax e-transfers to buy the same supplies.
There was a Boss who did not get tired of pushing and, in turn, not bored of fiscal sermons; employees who contributed ideas; colleagues with own goals but who bent a bit; prayers too; friends w/ frank talk & citizen faithfuls; and for sacrifice, family (small & wide).
A] Some empathy & regret will help the correction, yet it seems missing. The present state of affairs did not begin in the present. So it can't & must not be wished away with patriotic pleas. When the citizens' alarms at the state of affairs were ignored, being corky went global.
Wishing us all a happy and healthy intellect to discuss our nation's affairs with vigour, yet friendly, passion in 2022 and beyond. Do some good to a friend or stranger in need, all year round.
Read a platform & still thinking our devt model. Used about $3.6b equiv (still counting) of tax rev to liquidate many banks. Borrow €170m (abt $200m or 20%) on one Bank. Note, we had set aside c300m of COVID loan for same bank. Nothing said of $250m for GIIF from 2014 Bond. GN
A] Ref. Censure Hearing in Pl'mt. Emphatic: no misreporting by JM's govt under the IMF ECF Program. I was in the House when the Hon. Minister made this allegation in presenting the 2017 Budget. We responded promptly and wrote an article, with cc to IMF's Resident Representative.
Espouses the true essence of "Father for All" & undertaking projects as national right in regions & minority areas that do not follow a partisan political way. Let's not even contemplate this notion as a national ideology. We all pay taxes.
Hmm. Our perspective: infra & touching lives? 2 sides of real, not counterfeit, coin. Hospitals & chps compounds touch lives, obvious; a good rural road minimizes post-harvest losses, income & lives; a "school-under-a-tree" brings a lot of dignity to young lives. Rest my case.
An appeal to all who follow/comment, incl. me following me! Try to breath in harder & deeper, less impulse, to be civil to "us". Else, it will be difficult to deflect missiles, as future Minister for Finance (yeah, next lucky one[s] among us!!). Many friends/family on other side.
I dedicate piece to youth who ff, esp, and urge them to take these advice on personal finance seriously. Follow the pessewa (cent, penny), please. Every generation has it dad & attractions. Some here 4u.
Underrated ways to stop wasting money in 2020
Yes, during crisis, introduce TEMPORARY taxes. Truth is NDC's 2015/16 temp taxes [i.e.,FSL, ESLA, SpL] remain [7 yrs], plus NPP new ones [abt 10]. Yet tax/revenue-to-GDP is stagnant as expdx rises. Secret behind deficits going into debt hole. Adage: when in a hole, stop digging.
#Budget2024
: You tell gov't not to borrow. You are also against gov't taking taxes. How else do you want gov't to finance its goods and services? - Hon. Stephen Amoah
#MetroNews
Do we need foreigners to explain it better for us? Another example is the zero-coupon bond, where we received about $350m immediately but will pay about $500m. Similar to the AFRIEXIM loan.
A Kenya man uses the government of Ghana's recklessness that led to the IMF bailout as a startling yardstick to warn Kenyans. Have a listen!! The NPP is a nefarious party.
Fitch Ratings Ghana Downgrade. An unwelcome way to start the IMF negotiations from next week (referenced in the release). Recommended reading ... you can download.
Lest we forget: b4 it was collaterized in 2017/18, NDC was using ESLA to banking sector debt. Now, the ESLA loan is part of Debt exchange plan. 2nd, the $250m from Stabilization Fund for COVID was set aside by NDC from 1 oil field. Imagine if we tripled it from 3 fields by 2020?
Clearly, the NDC cannot be better managers of the economy because
The NDC could not solve dumsor, manage the buoyant banking sector they inherited or manage a small guinea flow rearing project, etc. Can you imagine Covid and R-U war under NDC? Disaster!
#Ghana
#GH
A] While we have been away, a lot of water has passed under the bridge. With all due respect, besides my view of 170 qsns from an aspirant, many substantive economic principles have come directly from the Office of VP that will inform future policies.
A] This idea that NADAA's Govt did better than JM's is turning ridiculous. The funds/buffers left by JM include the rest of IMF ECF 2015 money. The alleged non-performance has NPP's 2.3% of GDP "OFFSET" it forged & added to the 2016 deficit [posted here].
Fraud [Urgent].
Please ignore any message [ostensibly] from me [esp. my WhatsApp or any other account] being in some kind of serious trouble and needing financial assistance. It is fraudulent.
3 only JM Buffers at end-2016 depleted by NPP:
A] $200m in Sinking Fund to pay bal. of NPP 2007 Sov. Bond.
B] $250m+ in Stabex Fund for COVID-19;
C] $250m GIIF Fund ... use?
A dollar would have been GHc25 by now if Mahama was in power – Miracles Aboagye
A] Not so fast, Veep. Stopping or retarding a policy and bringing it back after 7 years does NOT make it new. This Graphic news piece from 2016 speaks for itself.
To diminish the impact of Global financial crisis, shortage of gas supply from Nigeria, single spine, fall in commodity prices (2014) is to explain why, with 3 oil fields, we stopped PRMA buffers, failed to anticipate COVID-19 and struggle to manage the crisis with about $6b
Sm ans: Ghn in rn recession, 1st time in abt 40 yrs, despite IMF, BOG, WB etc US$3b for one crisis (JM avoided it, despite global finx/BRIC crisis, single spine, power crisis); end-2020 deficit to be 15% & debt close to 80% (JM end-2016 6.8% & 57% resp); 3 vrs 1 oil fields.
A friend called from the US perplexed as to how 6 million Ghanaians could vote for JM in spite of his record. I replied, 70 million Americans voted for a leader who advised his citizens to drink bleach against Covid-19. What is important is that both men did not win, I said.
Humbled to take a picture next to the Osagyefo's statue on African Union (AU) compund in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, a day before March 6, when Ghana celebrated its 63rd national day. Long live the Founder!!
The fiscal deficit in 2016 was 6.1% (see MOF correction in March 2021 Statement) without NPP's "offsets" of ghc5 billion for 2016. The NPP's deficits exclude "bailout costs", which without a provision in 2017 (despite ESLA) is still the lowest?
A] My friend, still arguing exchange rate issues? Note, the rate was approx. US1 = [old] c10,000. Govt removed the 4 zeroes within 24 hrs, after going to bed & waking up. Presto, $1 became Ghc 1 [with new cedi notes]. So the same qsn: who took it to c10,000 before it became Ghc1?
D-Day tomorrow. Be bold!!
Never too late to examine fact-based performance record, even if high-level. In making the Big decision. With truth as guide, we serve Mother Ghana well.
It was nice lecturing at Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy in the USA on Public Financial Management reforms (PFM): The Case of Ghana. I also enjoyed sharing my perspectives on Ghana’s Sovereign Wealth Fund based on the Petroleum Revenue Management Act
Be advised that we had a repayment scheme approved by P'lmt. We "escrowed" sales of crude oil to repay the CDB loan. Meaning? Judicious allocation btn devt & consumption. Pls, w/ 1 oilfield, was there a loan default, incl those of past govts, under Mills-Mahama-PaaK? Come again.
JM's oil cash (1 field) of $200m (Sinking Fund) used to pay JAK Bond bal. in 2017; most of $250m Stabilization Fund for COVID (3 fields record?). Also JM $250m plus GIIF for biz support & ESLA of Ghc41bill (2024) or $20b+ (2020) cd have paid all bank bailout, energy/road arrears.
Sm ans: Ghn in rn recession, 1st time in abt 40 yrs, despite IMF, BOG, WB etc US$3b for one crisis (JM avoided it, despite global finx/BRIC crisis, single spine, power crisis); end-2020 deficit to be 15% & debt close to 80% (JM end-2016 6.8% & 57% resp); 3 vrs 1 oil fields.
Bond Exchange
Thanking all who tagged me or seek my views on this matter. May I note
A] Refinancing govt debt & engaging stakeholders is no new experience; most recent were 2015/16 ESLA & World Bank-Guaranteed 2015 Bond used entirely to refinance $1b of domestic & external bonds.
With about 33,000 enrolled participants so far, our Public Financial Management online course continues to be the most popular course of our free and open Online Learning program. You can register for this course at
@IMFNews
@ATI_IMF
@jvi_vienna
May we reap a peaceful 2020 for obvious (Election) reasons. May we discharge our civic responsibilities (before, then, and afterwards) with utmost national interest in mind. Yen ara asase!!!
Lest we forget: doff our hats to late Paa K. Amissah-Arthur, JM's Chairman of Economic Mgt Team (as well as former Governor of BoG & Deputy Minister for Finance).
A] The persistent claim that the economy did well until COVID-19 must be persistently debunked. Its false accounting was exposed by citizenss & IMF Art. IV 2019 [before COVID] and, ironically, IMF COVID [yes] Loan Report in 2020. Yet the Govt has NOT done a correction to date.
Since all countries borrow, as the graph shows, the ability to achieve a US$2 bill p.a. "Big Push" for Infrastructure Devt shows mainly in embarking on massive projects between 2013 and 2016 while also reducing the rate of accumulating Public Debt from borrowing for the Projects.
A sub-sea accident just affected communication & Govt pleads for tolerance. Remember that other pirate ship sub-sea accident, Nigeria gas supply disruption & that pasto intolerant "dumsor" stance? Incidentally, the "dumsor2" debate is simplified: the necessity for timetables.
A) Our Debt/GDP ratio to hit 83% or more @ end-2021, despite recent official protests? BoGs Financial & Econ. Data report puts the level @ 78.4% (at end-Nov 2021) but excluding Bailout (see Note). The lowest monthly debt amt is 3.4% which, if added for Dec-21, takes it to 81.8%.
Lesson 1: we won't say it was was "photoshopped".
Lesson 2: a people it is so physical and tangible, it is not meant to be "eaten", yet is needed.
Lesson 3: it was feasible with 1 oil-firld than 3; with more external and internal resource flow.
Need we expect more?
And Mr. President
@NAkufoAddo
was spot on in Elmina today ….
*I thank the people of Elmina for trusting the Akufo-Addo government to deliver this project, whose sod I cut on 20th August 2020, and I thank them for not listening to the naysayers. I remember that, after cutting
JM's 4-year record in office is obvious, in comparison with the best of 7/8 years. Examples: Debt 57% v 100%+ [and default]; budget deficit 6.1% v 13%; buffers [ESLA, GIIF, Sinking/Stabex Fund] over $500m+ with 1 v 3 oilfields.
If you have ever dreamt of voting for JM/NDC, please perish that thought because he will use the 4 years to honeymoon at the Jubilee House. Remember, JM said no one can use 4 years to develop a country? Confirmed, ..he will use the 4 years to honeymoon at the Jubilee House!
Fare well, Sydney, gentle learned critic & friend. We agreed on policy issues, even from opposing debates. For my VAT book launch, Dr Sam Mensah, friend/adviser said to talk to him. He read, moderated .. with typical hilarious Sidney insights & jabs. RIP
Acknowledging all compliments. Get involved, your citizen's. Read wide and contribute, if you are fortunate. Be curious, no question is dumb. We have classmates at any level. We all contribute to nation-building.
A) EC on self-declaratory holidays? A public policy class quiz. As a public institution with public servants, is the EC subject to the traditional Xmas & New Year statutory holidays that the Ministry of Interior is yet to declare? Shut the door to ongoing 2020 election queries?
A) ESLA: Easy to take credit, yet very difficult to admit that ESLA flows used to pay banking sector bailout costs (especially, to Depositors), energy arrears (incl arrears to IPPs, BDCs etc), road arrears (contractors). ESLA used to restructure Bank debt without job loss in 2016
As the year closes, May I wish you all the very best of the Season of Goodwill. I appreciate the dialogue, so far respectful of each other's views. Paves way for improvement ... aha, more mainstream, less "technical"; as we appreciate professionals in the lane.
Contemporary headache? The real/true cost of bond issued for $500m & we received "net" $350m only? We call it Zero-Coupon Bond here. Ironically, it is due for a "bullet" pmt in abt 2 yrs, about the same period as 2015. Others follow but with no access to the Bond mkts, for now.
5 / The cost to Ghana is even higher because the World Bank has charged a 0.75% fee for the guarantee every year. That's a further $45m Ghana has had to pay for a ridiculously expensive loan
Stuck in 2016? With nearly 2 terms gone, 7th yr is of debt qsns, into 8th yr [next legacy?]. Legacy was asphalted roads & responsibility for maintenance. Issue of Green Book projects NOT photoshop settled. With 3 oilfieds & cash buffers, the qsn is why their maintenance failed.
Highly recommended, especially, for younger followers and friends. It not long so don't think it will take too much of your time. Enjoy and pick useful hints.
5 biggest resume mistakes, according to Harvard experts—and examples of what to do
Measure of domestic mkt mediocrity? Prevailing rates? Tendered (book-buiding) yet uncompetitive mkt offer? Did not take over-subscription, our fiscal discipline. Depositors earned zero (0) interest for funds in forex a/c (to date). Finally, take 10yrs when I can repay in 2 yrs?
Imagine
@SethTerkper
celebrating mediocrity cause you got a 6% rate on a domestically $ bond issued with 2 years maturity. No wonder Ken is also saying we should praise him for issuing a zero coupon bond. They’re not finding ways to walk away from such bad deals on int. markets😂
A] It is pity that, if true, statements like these divert our attention. Presently, we should be focussed on IMF Reviews & completing our debt restructuring exercises, for which we only got a dispensation to go the IMF Boared Board.
Dear H.E. Prof. J E A Mills: we honour you and the contribution you made to Ghana, from the humblest of vocation to the pinnacle. For some of us, our development was a personal commitment to you. We say, thank you.
A] BoG's release on financing deficits seems to focus on the present. Another COVID is the problem excuse? With the pre-COVID era pregnant with our situation today? Could BOG have been more candid with that era? I will not repeat my most recent tweet about the writing on the wall
The bulk of proceeds into ESLA (ghc40+ by 2021) which shd have terminated in 3-to-5 yrs (this year!!!), year of another increase after the extension of maturity dates (10 yrs+). Yet ESLA-related Bailout costs & Arrears (energy, roads & banking) still outstanding.. Good night.
Now, you understand why I say I miss the NDC. They knew how to fix fuel prices for real. No mercy! 82.7% increase in the price of your petrol in the 4yrs under Mills-Mahama; 91.9% increase in the next 4yrs under John Mahama. Akufo-Addo is slow. A mere 24.4% in his first 4yrs.