Jagandeep Singh
@SeldonOnMarkets
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Stocks, Liberal Politics and Sports. Write a Monthly market post at the link below
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What is happening in the markets? I analyze the markets to determine the significance of the current top in the NIFTY.
My next post is now published (Link in the next post).
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This is going to be a longish thread. I've tried to review 23 corrections since Jan 2002 (excluding 2008-09) to find what kind of patterns exist in a correction and can we make any judgments from this history of corrections. So, Lets see what comes out of this.
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This is going to be a long-thread. Will try to do an assessment of the NIFTY & Bank Nifty to answer 2 different questions:
1. What happens in pre-election months?
2. Where are we today?
Lets start with the elections:
Q. What happens?
A. Surprise! Markets Trend every time.
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So, this is going to be a longish thread on the NIFTY.
In my last analysis, had mentioned that there wasn't enough data to analyze the NIFTY yet. In 2 weeks we now have more data to analyze.
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This is going to be a longish thread on the NIFTY. Attempt is to look at the NIFTY from a data perspective on 3 different Time frames (Weekly, Monthly & Quarterly) and try to develop a hypothesis on the next high - probability move in the NIFTY.
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30/n
If you've read so far through this, at times, rambling thread then I do thank you for your patience 😀
All of the above should be considered as notes from my analysis and should NOT be taken as any kind of investment advice!
********End of Thread*******
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A small thread on the NIFTY.
Today was the 7th consecutive red candle on the NIFTY Daily charts. This is the 34th instance of >= 7 consecutive red candles on the NIFTY daily charts.
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1. A small thread on where the NIFTY is today. Its almost impossible to make a prediction where the NIFTY will be in another 3 - 4 weeks; but we can definitely look at data to assess where we stand today
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Trying my hand at a blog-post. My market analysis is up at the following link
Feedback appreciated!
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@jawharsircar
The point is taken and correct, but Raghuram Rajan was not the RBI governor during Demonetization. It was Urjit Patel.
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As I wrote in my blog post, there is something to be said about what I call "the curse of the thousands".
NIFTY crosses a 1000 figure and then stalls the 100 - 200 range.
8000 - 8168 || 9000 - 9119 || 10000 - 10138 || 11000 - 11171 & now 12000 - 12103.
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Here we go again.
1. The stunning data point of this correction is that NIFTY has traversed > 2.5SD on the downside on the Monthly BB in just 2 months. No other correction has done that. The correction that came closest was 2008 when ~2.3 SD move happened in only one month.
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@wartranslated
Hard to see how Prighozhin gets out alive unless the coup succeeds and that can be quite motivating.
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@swaris16
You're under-estimating their capability for hypocrisy as well as excusing their own.
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My first blogpost. A different perspective of looking at Nifty data
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@vinayakkm
To win tough matches when you are expected to win it all is a skill Indian sportspeople are still learning about (across sport and I'll even include cricket here).
One reason why we don't have dominance across sports & also why Neeraj Chopra is so special.
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Just came across an astonishing bit of data.
None of the last 9 weeks have made a HH on the NIFTY. (Don't count 1 pt HH on 13th - 19th Aug).
This has happened only ONCE earlier in the history of NIFTY between April - Jun 2008.
10 weeks has NEVER happened.
#JustSomeData
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1. Friday was a crazy day and probably the word crazy also doesn't do justice to the one hour around lunch. The output of that one hour was a huge candle. So, today lets look at the WR (Wide Range) Candles and if that tells us anything about the next few days and weeks
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The absolute disregard shown by the NIFTY for 20WSMA & 50WSMA is extremely rare. It is so rare, infact, the last time it happened was 2008 & maybe more pertinent to today May - June 2006. In many other ways as well, this correction is quite similar to May -June 2006
#Observation
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Time for a short thread and analysis of the market based on RSI.
The NIFTY Daily RSI closed today at 82.49. This is the 7th highest NIFTY RSI is history and the 16th instance of RSI closing at > 80 for the NIFTY on the daily charts.
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Some analysis of today's fall. Today is only the 24th instance since 1998, where the NIFTY closed at >= -3 SD on the Daily charts.
The previous 23 instances occurred in 19 different moves.
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It took a while to get this done.
My first substack post with my market analysis at the end of Sept. 2022 is now published.
This is a very long one and look forward to the feedback.
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I have published a couple of my custom indicators on Trading View
1. Volatility and Time adjusted Composite RSI
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NIFTY closed at 19189.xx which is >+3 SD (with ref. to the 20dsma) on the daily charts. The last instance of this happening (that I can find) was 12th May 14.
The short-term rally should halt either here or early next week. Whether there is a consolidation or correction is TBD.
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Just Stunning.
#HDFCBANK
is now making its 8th consecutive red candle on the Weekly chart. Has NEVER done this.
For Context, In Jan 2008 it ended at 7 consecutive red candles on the Weekly Charts.
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The 3.5 day range on the NIFTY is less than 1%.
Just for context - ITC’s range in the same period is ~1.5%.
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Let me make it clear (once & for all)
1. I am not qualified to offer investment advice.
2. I don't understand your risk and how you manage it; so I am not in a position to offer any advice.
3. If my notes help you, you're welcome to use them.
4. Don't DM me for advice.
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Some Trend Lines are worth paying attention; like this one
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Anecdotal observation: Any big "reform" by this govt is mostly kept secret prior to announcement & what gets leaked rarely turns into an actual "reform" announcement.
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17.
Usual Disclaimer:
The tweets above are notes from my analysis and shouldn't be construed as any kind of financial advice.
**End of Thread**
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13. Where do we go from here?
Scenario One:
a. This is a "fast and Brutal" correction. In that case, the highest probability is that either the low has been made or will be made next week (difficult to time). There is a high-probability that this can happen.
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For some strange reason, I've always found it easier to do statistical analysis on the NIFTY rather than the Bank NIFTY. It seems to me that NIFTY has less noise on the charts and easier to detect patterns. Having said that I'm going to try my hand at the Bank NIFTY again today.
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@avinasi
@danbrettig
The event, the location (stadium name), the capacity crowd, the BJP workers bussed in tomorrow, the chants you'll see within the stadium during their lap of honor, the hagiographic coverage you'll see on TV news are all but a small example of the propaganda machine.
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New Blogpost: Part-I in an attempt at analysis of 52 NIFTY moves from 1991 - 2007. Feedback is welcome!!
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@gurkiratsgill
He has the bowler's equivalent of Elgar's luck. There is no logical reason he should be as successful, but I'm not complaining.
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Lets form a Baseline first:
1. On the Weekly charts NIFTY has seen green candles in 8 of the past 9 weeks as well as the past six consecutive weeks.
2. The weekly RSI is @ 77.xx
3. On the Monthly charts, July and August have been extremely positive and solid greens.
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The latest blog post with my analysis on the markets is up on the blog. Titled "The March begins anew?"
Link is
As always feedback is welcome and appreciated.
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This is the fifth time in NIFTY History there has been a fourth consecutive red candles on the monthly charts. This time by 0.35 points !!
There have never been five.
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My latest post is up on the blog: "The Anatomy of a NIFTY Top". Looking at history to figure out when tops happen
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5. General bear markets tend to go to or just lower than the 50MSMA. Broadly a range of 8700 - 9100 (as of today) & the real horror ones get to near the 100 MSMA; which currently stands @ 7500.
So, it has never really been now or never like the next 2 weeks.
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On a daily basis we sometimes get *too much* information these days, making it almost impossible to figure out the relevant signals from the noise.
At this point in time, the same is happening with Market Fundamentals.
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The latest blog post with my market analysis is up on the Blog.
"The Now or the Never Month"
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@saurabh_42
Maybe it just seems so to me, but KL always seems to come across as defending himself in the post-match interviews. Almost always. Even without a direct question being asked.
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My latest substack update is out.
The end is nigh?
I do a deep-dive into what does history and data indicate in terms of the pending duration of this consolidation and the direction of the follow-up move.
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A quick follow-up analysis on the NIFTY & Bank Nifty. The 3 threads listed below have, largely, played out so its a good time to review where we are on the Indices.
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NIFTY is, currently, making its 6th consecutive red candle on the weekly chart. In 23 years of NIFTY History, the index has made >= 6 consecutive red candles only 6 times!!
4/6 instances ended at 6 weeks & the remaining 2 instances ended at 7 weeks and 9 weeks.
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Read somewhere, the joke, that the desperation to arrest Chidambaram was because the government desperately needs advice on the economy!!
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A short update to my trading thesis thread here
Q. How do I select which strike to trade?
1. All stock market investing (and trading) is about predicting the future (to varying degrees). I mean if you believe that an industry would die, you won't invest in it for the LT.
2. To varying degrees, almost all predictions are wrong.
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Finally starting to read Gregory Zuckerman's "The Man who solved the market. How Jim Simmons launched the quant revolution"
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@vinayakkm
The luck of the draw too. World nos 5 and 12 meeting in the round of 32.
But, this kind of archery also shows how much of a missed chance the Team event was.
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NIFTY also made the narrowest range of the past 73 days today. Whats interesting about it is that it happened at ~20DSMA & 50DSMA. Since 2000, there are > 40 such candles but only 6 of them happened at / close to their 20DSMA & all of them led to a trending move in next 2-3 weeks
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11.
At the end of every single one of the 22 corrections (excluding current one), NIFTY rallied to near or beyond the +0.5 SD to +1 SD Weekly BB. This range today is 11264 - 11454.
Please note this is dynamic and subject to change.
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Today was the 9th cosecutive red candle on the NIFTY.
The only time in NIFTY history there have been >9 consecutive red candles was in 2001 when 9/11 led to a 15 day streak. Interestingly, 9/11 itself happened *after* 10 red candles.
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16.
A rise to near the -0.5 SD Weekly BB to 20WSMA (currently @ 10885 - 11074) is a very good probability.
What kind of correction is this? We'll know only when and where the rally post the correction ends.
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My latest Substack update is out. The data for this post surprised me, and forced me to change my prevailing opinion. Do read, share and provide feedback.
It may have been worth the wait ....
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23/23
I'll add further analysis on the 2 week time-frame in the next few weeks (depending upon time).
****None of the above should be understood or construed as financial advice or recommendation. These are my analysis notes and should be understood as such*****
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Quick thread on NIFTY HH - HL on the Monthly Charts (In lieu of TCS buyback, we might get a new HH on the Monthly charts tomorrow):
1. Since 1999, NIFTY has had a streak of >3 HH - HL on the Monthly charts 16 times. Streak means NIFTY has made a HH - HL every consecutive month.
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This is the 4th consecutive red candle (so far) on the NIFTY Monthly charts. Previous instances include 2001 - 2015 - 2016 & the only time it went to 5 consecutive red candles was Jul - Nov 1997.
Getting into some serious record breaking territory now.
#JustSomeData
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The curse of 12 months after General Elections.
In the 2 - 10 months after the general elections in India, the markets have seen an average correction of 29% from the top. Data cross all elections from 1996.
It's hard to imply causation, but it's interesting data nonetheless.
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This is going to be a thread analyzing the markets based on broadly 4 factors (unless something else strikes while doing the analysis):
1. Seasonality
2. RSI
3. Multiple Time frames
4. Some data analysis
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I may seem like a broken record (esp. in times of euphoria), but, be very cautious about tomorrow.
Do remember, LS election related price action doesn't end on the first day or the first week. There'll be multiple opportunities over 6 - 8 weeks (whichever way the market moves).
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Lets try an assessment of the NIFTY and the BN after the budget.
1. NIFTY is @ 50WSMA and between -0.5 to -1.0 SD on the BB.
2. BN is also the same. Just a smidge below the 50WSMA and between -0.5 to -1.0 SD on the BB.
3. On the Monthly charts, both indices are at +1 SD BB.
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The next week - and I don't say this lightly - will be one of the most consequential weeks for the NIFTY in its recent history.
Where the NIFTY ends the week, the month and the quarter could really define the direction of the next 20% on the index.
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A couple of quick tweets on my analysis style and how you can DIY.
I look for unique data patterns (ignore candle patterns).
Candles are just a representation of data. Where there is data, maths and statistics can be used.
@bbands
made it very easy to use statistics on charts.
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@MichaelVaughan
It is not a pitch issue but a skill issue if England can't score 200 in five consecutive innings in India.
Pitch is just an excuse for a team with Zero skills to play spin.
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#4
.
These types of corrections tend to happen in primarily bullish markets and esp. from ATHs.
In a nutshell, The Sep 2018 is the most common type of correction seen by the NIFTY.
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@ap_pune
Most bear markets are three steps down and 1.5 steps up. This has been a vertical fall. It has been equivalent to a 10-11 month bear-market in five weeks.
Assuming we hit 8500 tomorrow, this will be a 1/3rd decline in NIFTY and 20% in 2 days. That kills every portfolio.
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Every index & stock has its own characteristics.
Bank NIFTY is a relatively new index (in Quarterly terms) but a thing to note is - The 3 prior instances of multi-quarter bear markets from an ATH, happened AFTER it tested range of +2.5SD to +3SD BB Band on Quarterly Charts.
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In my experience, the test of 2.5SD to 3.0SD (positive or negative) is one of the most reliable indicators of mean reversion.
Plot a Bollinger Band with the mean as 20 Period SMA and these Standard Deviations and see for yourself.
#EasyTA
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For the first time yesterday, I had gone all in on my own analysis. Was 95% long options (index and stocks) and thanks to Nirmala Sitharaman today has been a day to remember!
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I've watched just one episode of this series on Netflix but that one episode was such brilliance that I want to ask everyone to watch it & this series.
Language: Japanese
Series: Midnight Diner: Tokyo Stories
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Will need to validate this but I think IndiaVix is now becoming a semi-useless indicator to track.
IndiaVix is calculated using Monthly index options whereas a huge majority (70%+) of options volume has shifted to weekly volumes.
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Irrespective of where the bottom lies, NIFTY has gone from an ATH to 50 MSMA in < 2 months. This is an absolutely astonishing pace of correction.
For Reference, in 2015-16 it took 11 months, in 2010 - 11 nine months, in 2007 - 08 nine months & in 1999 - 2000 took 8 months.
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The last and ONLY time NIFTY tagged the -3 SD (BB) for 3 consecutive weeks was in Sep - Oct 2008.
This is just the 2nd time in NIFTY history.
#historic
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Bear Markets or Bull Markets Or corrections, the one certainty in markets is Mean Reversion.
I looked at 34 instances where the NIFTY spent more than 6 days below the 20DSMA since 2010.
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Well done
@isro
.
Landing on the moon is insanely difficult and you came very close to achieving unprecedented success on the first attempt!
Kudos to the team and I'm sure you'll succeed the next time!
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To Be or Not To Be ......
......... A Bear Market?
If I had to write an article on the markets today, that will be the title.
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These were the two primary twitter threads which detailed my expectations on the market correction in Sept.
Over the next 2 days, I'm going to update these threads with further analysis as we have got more data.
1. Friday was a crazy day and probably the word crazy also doesn't do justice to the one hour around lunch. The output of that one hour was a huge candle. So, today lets look at the WR (Wide Range) Candles and if that tells us anything about the next few days and weeks
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In Dec, NIFTY has confirmed an outside candle on monthly charts. Observations
1. This is 18th instance of Outside candle on Monthly charts.
2. 6 instances of Green candle (like the current month) & 12 instances of red candles.
3. 7 of 18 instances resulted in a top or a bottom.
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Sometimes I am tempted to post here:
This is the history of 25%+ corrections in the NIFTY
1998 - 2000 - 2002 - 2004 - 2006 - 2008 i.e., every 2 years & then 2011 - 2015-16 - 2020 - (?)
We are now close to a record for longest duration between two 25%+ corrections on the NIFTY
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#1
Every correction > 10% since Jan 2002 is included in this analysis.
Some of these corrections could also be corrections within a longer down trend.
Some key analysis parameters are:
1. Speed of Decline
2. Duration of Decline
3. Types of Candles in the Decline (Weekly Charts)
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This is what I'd tweeted just after the budget.
Never imagined that we'd see a decent jump & the higher probability scenario will work out. Even I didn't trade my analysis effectively.
There is a slightly higher probability that we see the fall continue for the next 2 - 3 weeks & reach close to ~11300 on the NIFTY.
The worst case scenario, in which my LT prediction is belied, is a fall to 200WSMA near 10200 - 10300. This would be a very low probability (IMO).
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A very short thread on the IT Sector and its astonishing rally.
As of now, CNX IT is practically at 3SD on the Quarterly chart. Infosys is at similar levels & HCL Tech has exceeded 3SD on the Quarterly charts.
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The latest update on my substack is out. Do read, share and subscribe.
This post is an assessment of the markets as the NIFTY reaches its all-time high. Objective is to evaluate the current market hypothesis and determine potential direction.
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I don't know if this helps but my panic attacks were initially caused by a major financial loss (in the markets) and there was a time I'd get an attack at the thought of visiting a mall and spending money.
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There has been no change in my view on the NIFTY. The expectation was a move to the previous ATH before elections (contained in these two threads)
This is going to be a long-thread. Will try to do an assessment of the NIFTY & Bank Nifty to answer 2 different questions:
1. What happens in pre-election months?
2. Where are we today?
Lets start with the elections:
Q. What happens?
A. Surprise! Markets Trend every time.
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This is utterly fascinating.
With 3 trading days left in June 2023, NIFTY and Bank NIFTY are both on track to create the lowest monthly range in history.
NIFTY Current Range: 2.27%. Current record: 2.42%
Bank NIFTY Current Range: 2.52%
Current record: 3.31%
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Over the next two - three weeks, I will try and analyze major stocks and indices to form a view on 2020.
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Since I don't think I'll be able to write a post this week, here is a short market thread.
On budget day, the NIFTY made the widest daily range since 7th March 2020.
It is WRB 496 i.e. the Widest Range Bar in the past 496 days.
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19 medals including 5 Golds. What's an astonishing Paralympics this has been for India.
I sincerely hope these Paralympic champions get the same support and the same awards as our Olympic champions.
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CY 2018 seems to be the narrowest annual range in the NIFTY ever!
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The fastest correction to 200 WSMA in NIFTY History.
One record after another. This is just an astonishing move.
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S&P is now forming the Widest Range Candle (%) in the past 85 months (Last such Instance was October 2008). There have been 11 such instances since 1960. Only ONE of those (August 1998) ended the month at the lows. Other 10 instances showed significant recovery by EOM (Calendar)
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Weekly Charts first:
1. The NIFTY rebounded in March - Spril from > -3SD & has now tagged and exceeded the +2SD for Six Consecutive weeks.
2. There have been 12 prior instances since 1998 when it has tagged or exceeded the +2SD for >= 5 weeks.
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Someday, I want to understand how a global *slowdown* in Auto sales is apparently causing an auto industry recession here?
Esp. when Indian companies (excl. 1-2) have minuscule export volumes & domestic buyers don't depend on foreign funding!
Excuse ke naam pe kuch bi chalega!
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