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@SeattleWXnut
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Never seen this kind of discrepancy for a storm that’s literally happening now. GFS all in, EURO says nah (opposite of a few days ago). Gotta love the PNW!
#wawx
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The GFS is now an outlier as all other major models are in agreement for an arctic outbreak in the Sun-Thur timeframe. Just waiting for it to cave…EURO is all in.
#wawx
🥶 ❄️ ⛄️
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Good morning storm lovers! I was ready for a rug pull but the latest EURO actually increased lightning potential. While lightning will be the biggest threat hail/wind are not out of the question. I’ll be updating throughout the day as things progress!
#wawx
⚡️ ⛈ 🌩 🧊 💨
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Good morning PNW! The GFS finally made the jump and now many models are showing a significant snow on Tue. Can’t emphasize enough that there is HUGE bust potential. High risk, high reward event. Don’t get caught up in totals but here’s some eye candy!
#wawx
❄️ 🥶 ⛄️
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I have a feeling this is going to be a storm to remember for some places. The 12z runs trended up in precip overall. They are already showing an impactful event but if the cold air holds longer than modeled it could get really ugly. Here are a few of them.
#wawx
🥶 🧊 🌧 ❄️
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Snow lovers rejoice. The EPS has 49/50 members showing 6+ inches of snow over an extended period beginning Saturday night. Note day temps will be marginal so this represents snowfall not depth. That said, incredible agreement on an exciting winter stretch.
#wawx
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Snow chances are increasing for next week! The EPS is one of our most powerful tools and all members show at least a dusting. The majority show 2+ inches. Too soon to look at specific amounts but, winter is coming ❄️ 🥶 Happy Thanksgiving! 🦃
#wawx
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👀 ahead to Tue night. Another high ceiling, low floor event. Big snow, freezing rain, or plain old rain are all possible outcomes. Right now the highly accurate EPS has a 30-40% chance of measurable snow and 10-20% of significant ❄️ (6+ inches). Update after the 00z runs
#wawx
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Impressive and unique thunderstorm set up tomorrow over western Washington. While I wish we had more opportunities for exciting weather, it does make it all that more special when it happens. Enjoy and be safe as there will be a lot of lightning with these storms. Cheers
#wawx
⚡️
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The EURO’s final call before the action starts. No more snow maps, just the radar and 🥃. Good luck to all!
#wawx
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Big time winter weather event possible next week ranging from snow, sleet, and ice. **Not a Forecast** but here are a few different maps to show the potential. Models are starting to align…
#wawx
❄️ 🧊 🥶
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Hoping to get a post out later tonight after the 00z models. Cold is near certain with arctic air moving in Thursday. There are still a huge range of outcomes concerning snow. More to come…
#wawx
❄️ ⁉️ 🧊 🥶
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Don’t be disappointed if you haven’t gotten any ⚡️ just yet. The HRRR wants to organize things a bit better this evening which would result in more widespread chances versus the popcorn right now.
#wawx
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I do not envy
@NWSSeattle
forecasting this thing. Models are still all over after tomorrow with a wide range of outcomes, especially Tuesday. That said, let’s enjoy tomorrow! Arctic front moving in with snow showers. Could be surprises in areas of convergence. Cheers!
#wawx
❄️🥃
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These are INSANE cape values for around here showing up on the EURO which it is typically stubborn with. Things will change but wow there is some serious potential here. I’ll continue to update as we move closer. ⚡️ ⚡️ ⚡️
#wawx
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High impact ice storm poss tomorrow night. Cold will not be an issue so hope it’s more sleet/snow but not looking good. Everyone should be prepared, especially anyone exposed to east gap winds as the cold could hold on longer than modeled in those areas.
#wawx
🧊 🌧 🥶
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The HRRR is now on board with the NAM for thunderstorms to impact the sound and much of western Washington late tonight into tomorrow morning. SPC has also expanded its coverage. Here we go!
#wawx
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Most recent 18z GFS MUCH more bullish on snowfall amounts this weekend. Still seeing huge swings so take it with a grain of salt but the trend is our friend ❄️
#wawx
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LOL
#wawx
You will likely see many exciting GFS snow maps over the coming days. While I love a fantasy cast as much as anyone, keep your expectations in check. If the EURO/EPS align confidence will increase. Here is a good illustration of different model performance. EURO in red.
#wawx
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Now just as big of a swing the other way with the 12z run. This is the highest accuracy model and it’s still all over. Good reminder to give
@NWSSeattle
and your local Mets a break, especially at longer ranges.
#wawx
Good example of why it’s best to lean on ensembles when forecasting at long range. Here is the run to run change in 500mb height off the 00z EURO for Thur pm. Still a cold solution but not nearly as crazy as what was being shown. Nothing is certain at this point.
#wawx
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Snow is a good bet. How much? 🤷🏻��️ Pick your favorite model! This represents a “blend” and seems reasonable. Cheers and happy holidays to all. Hope everyone gets something! ❄️ 🎄 🥃 ⛄️
#wawx
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Radar beginning to blossom in areas further south. Some of the meso models are now catching onto some light accumulations across this area. Enjoy the flakes!
#wawx
❄️
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Last night’s system relied too much on evaporative cooling. Fun to look at but once the air saturated and SW winds worked in it was over for many. All 👀 now on the Tuesday system as temperatures will be much more favorable. I’ll post details in a bit!
#wawx
❄️
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The model battle continues for the upcoming pattern. The GFS has taken baby steps toward the EURO but refuses to cave. There will be cold and snow but the question remains for how long and how much? Hoping things begin to converge with the 00z runs tonight. Brrrrrr 🥶
#wawx
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Well well well…the Euro wants to do pop up storms one more time this evening. A few areas got lucky last night. Hopefully someone else gets a chance tonight! 🤞 ⚡️
#wawx
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Hope everyone is enjoying the snow…round 2 incoming late Wed/Thur! Good agreement on all major models just a few days out. More details to come ❄️
#wawx
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Here we go! Convection is beginning to fire. This will be different from our usual weather as storms have the potential to develop quickly.
#wawx
⛈ ⚡️
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The Fri/Sat snowstorm continues to target southern Washington and Oregon. The time frame to keep an eye on for snow fans further north is Tuesday night. Long way to go but something exciting to track! More details to come as we get close.
#wawx
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Enjoy the wintery day! Not expecting anything overly impactful but some places could get ~1 inch of snow. Locally more if the arctic front stalls more than anticipated. Temperatures fall rapidly in the afternoon. Main event fri/sat still looking to head south.
#wawx
❄️ 🥶
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Exciting weather day on tap! Mother Nature will throw a bit of everything at us with thunder, ice pellets, snow, wind, and of course rain. Multiple convergence zones look to set up this aft bringing a variety of weather and low snow levels. Thunder snow anyone!?
#wawx
🦄 ⚡️ ❄️
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Pumping the breaks on the potential arctic outbreak ahead. The deterministic/control are a bit of an outlier at this point. The green line is the mean, the blue the control. We generally need 850 temps at least -6 for snow (bottom). That said, trend is our friend!
#wawx
🤞❄️
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Unfortunately for snow fans significant accumulations in the near term are unlikely. Outside a few rogue GEFS members there is strong agreement towards dry and cold. Light accumulation still possible. Hopefully we get something as we transition out of this pattern.
#wawx
🥶 🧊
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NAM has ⛈ fun for all tomorrow night into Thursday morning. This will be the best window for widespread thunderstorms. Similar to PNW snow the ingredients have to be perfect 🤞
#wawx
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There continues to be a great deal of uncertainty regarding a potential arctic outbreak. High ceiling, low floor scenario. While confidence is increasing there are a couple of clear rug pull scenarios. Enjoy the model riding but hold for now.
#wawx
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EURO vs UW WRF. Same general idea with slightly higher amounts on the EURO. Meso models have backed off a lot so the EURO actually has the snowiest outcome (good if you’re a snow fan). Unfortunately temps are marginal near sea level. Still some uncertainty as we get closer.
#wawx
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Exciting weather period ahead! We start with a heat wave ☀️ 🥵 as we head into the weekend and exit with a potential 💥 in the form of thunderstorms early next week. Too early for details but looking like a very unique setup with an ULL moving towards us from the east. ⛈
#wawx
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Latest EURO shows a solid event for most. It should perform much better than it has recently with temperatures plenty cold for snow. It’s satellite and radar from here on out. Good luck everyone!
#wawx
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EURO refuses to back down on some snow tonight. Relying on evaporative cooling with a dry east wind as upper level temperatures just aren’t there. I have my doubts…but 🤞
#wawx
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Winter may go out with a BANG beginning Tuesday/Wednesday next week. Big time cold upside for a potentially prolonged stretch. Unlike most of our cold snaps there is a ton of ensemble support so confidence is high. More details to come as we get closer…
#wawx
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Snow update! Models are spitting out some very snow scenarios over the next few days. Unfortunately for snow fans, it appears they’re overdoing it for the most part. 925 temps (~2,500 ft) are not very supportive. The best windows are Sat morning and more so Mon night.
#wawx
❄️
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Cold and snow looking unlikely for the foreseeable future. However, the active weather continues. We’ll have to keep an eye on this beast of a storm. Right now it looks like it will stay well offshore resulting in a potential wind event for areas prone to east winds.
#wawx
💨 ☔️
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Exciting thunderstorm potential per the EURO into tomorrow morning. Unfortunately this doesn’t start till after midnight if you’re hoping to enjoy the light show ⚡️ ⚡️ ⚡️
#wawx
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Good example of why it’s best to lean on ensembles when forecasting at long range. Here is the run to run change in 500mb height off the 00z EURO for Thur pm. Still a cold solution but not nearly as crazy as what was being shown. Nothing is certain at this point.
#wawx
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A grim reminder that as far as we’ve come, Mother Nature will always have a level of unpredictability. Hurricane
#OTIS
set to make landfall near Acapulco as a major hurricane after one of the biggest model misses in history. Good luck to those in its path.
#hurricane
#wx
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You will see me reference the EURO a lot when forecasting winter weather, especially in the mid range. Why? It’s simply the best at nailing 850 temps which are one of the key variables for snow. Here is a model comp over the last 30 days. EURO is the red line at the top
#wawx
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Watching Monday night closely for a chance of ⛈️. An upper level low will set up off the coast creating deep southerly flow aloft. The location of that low will have a big impact on whether or not this materializes.
#wawx
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The S word is creeping into the forecast Monday but it’s looking marginal. As of now you’re going to need a bit of elevation to see real accumulations, 500’+. However, there is a PSCZ signature which could bring higher totals to areas underneath. More details to come
#wawx
❄️ 🥶
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Tuesday night is looking more like a freezing rain to rain event than snow. Temperatures aloft are above freezing at the onset of precip with temperatures below freezing due to east wind. Hopefully it is short lived or the low comes in further south.
#wawx
🌧️ 🧊
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Fun looking storm for some areas along the coast tonight! Send updates if you’re out there!
#wawx
💨 ⛈️
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There’s a chance for some surprise nocturnal thunderstorms from the south tonight as elevated instability increases late. Will monitor as we get closer.
#wawx
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Okay…time to get excited snow lovers! We finally have agreement across ensembles. Transition to cold begins right around Christmas Eve. Here is this mornings EPS snowfall for SeaTac. Don’t get stuck on amounts but high confidence winter is coming.
#wawx
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With the impending threat of freezing rain, thought I’d compare the models to last years event. Not expecting as much impact as that one but it does not take much ice to wreak havoc. Eyes on the radar and thermometers. Areas exposed to east winds most at risk. 🌡️ 🌧️ 🧊
#wawx
I have a feeling this is going to be a storm to remember for some places. The 12z runs trended up in precip overall. They are already showing an impactful event but if the cold air holds longer than modeled it could get really ugly. Here are a few of them.
#wawx
🥶 🧊 🌧 ❄️
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Starting to see increasing moisture to our south. Watching this area for storm initiation.
#wawx
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You will likely see many exciting GFS snow maps over the coming days. While I love a fantasy cast as much as anyone, keep your expectations in check. If the EURO/EPS align confidence will increase. Here is a good illustration of different model performance. EURO in red.
#wawx
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Really nice post from
@NWSSeattle
for the upcoming event. It is also going to get VERY cold after this Wednesday/Thursday so you’ll have a couple of days to enjoy it 😃 good luck everyone!
#wawx
⚠️❄️🌨️ SNOW FORECAST
Snowfall probabilities have increased across the region for Tonight through Tuesday Night time frame. Light flurries through tonight, following by increasing snowfall rates Tuesday morning. Some areas may transition to rain or a rain-snow mix Tuesday.
#wawx
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Excited for the 00z model runs tonight! Potential for some real winter just around the corner. More to come…
#wawx
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Potentially active day on tap! The NAM has storms initiating in the cascades after 3pm with a nice ⚡️ show moving through the sound after midnight. The UW model is supportive with impressive CAPE. Areas south have an even better chance after that into the morning. Watching!
#wawx
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Snowfall amounts for tonight’s system. This is pretty much in line with the EURO. Nice widespread “warning shot” before a potentially more significant event Monday night into Tuesday.
#wawx
*This map reflects a MOST LIKELY scenario.
*Keep in mind that the labeled sample points reflect a single point, while the color shading is smoothed.
*We'll answer as many questions as we can, but for "What about my location?" your best bet will be
#wawx
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Hope some of you lucked out! ⛄️ Add’l light accumulations this evening as an arctic front moves through. Then it gets COLD. We get a break Wednesday before a potential impactful ice/wind event Thursday evening. More to come on that as we get closer.
#wawx
❄️ 🥶 🧊 🌬
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The clock is ticking for winter weather lovers. Seattle area generally needs 850s around -6 or less for accumulating snowfall. You can see in the spread a few members get there after the 9th but it’s just wishful thinking for now. Hoping we get one more cold ❄️ blast!
#wawx
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Potential arctic outbreak this weekend 🥶 models are locking in on a very cold pattern with improving snow chances. We have to thread the needle around here to get these events but it looks as good as a winter lover could ask for ~5 days out.
#wawx
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Very intrigued at the possibility of thunderstorms tomorrow evening. IF it pops, there is a lot of energy available. Models can struggle with elevated convection so more focused on potential at this point. Some of these values are over 2,000 CAPE!
#wawx
🌩 ⚡️
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Still a wide spread in the low placement from the EPS. ~25% of the members have at least 2 inches with a few big ones. We should get some clarity tomorrow.
#wawx
👀 ahead to Tue night. Another high ceiling, low floor event. Big snow, freezing rain, or plain old rain are all possible outcomes. Right now the highly accurate EPS has a 30-40% chance of measurable snow and 10-20% of significant ❄️ (6+ inches). Update after the 00z runs
#wawx
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Looks like we’ll be stuck in a mild pattern for the first half of January with our typical rainy/breezy conditions. Could be a pattern change back to cooler conditions mid month 🤞 east wind event still looks likely Wednesday.
#wawx
💨 🌧
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A few models have a pretty significant east wind event tonight for areas in the cascade gaps. The EURO/NAM tend to overdue these a bit but there is also support from the WRF. HRRR much lower. Gusts over 50 possible.
#wawx
💨
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3
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Areas will see light snowfall Thursday with the arctic front moving through but light amounts. The juicier storm heading into the weekend is trending south into Oregon. Silver lining is a stronger storm often trends north. Still time but might be more cold than snowy.
#wawx
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I’ve been avoiding posting snow maps but hard to ignore at this point as the EURO takes yet another step towards the GFS. Still HIGHLY uncertain but real potential.
#wawx
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It’s been pretty amazing how many bullets we’ve dodged in terms of widespread wind storms this winter. We’ve had isolated winds but avoided the big one. Looks like we’ll continue to dodge storms as they store just offshore.
#wawx
💨
3
1
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Hope everyone who got some snow is enjoying it! For those who missed out, you’ve got a good shot later today/overnight. Some pretty good consistency for location from this mornings models. Amounts will vary.
#wawx
❄️ 🥶 ⛄️
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Time to 🔒 in the upcoming cold pattern. This has a chance to be a prolonged, memorable cold snap. Will update specifics as we get closer to individual events. For now, dream of what’s to come! Happy Holidays!❄️ 🎄 🥶 🎁 🥃 🍻
#wawx
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1
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Same general idea on the 18z. Meso models are having a harder time picking it up at this intensity so there is some bust potential. That said this is a great setup for us and they will likely catch on soon.
#wawx
Exciting thunderstorm potential per the EURO into tomorrow morning. Unfortunately this doesn’t start till after midnight if you’re hoping to enjoy the light show ⚡️ ⚡️ ⚡️
#wawx
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And now back to our regularly scheduled programming…not seeing much excitement in the next few weeks. Mild, breezy, and rainy.
#wawx
☁️ ☔️ 💨
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Wind advisories posted tomorrow for areas prone to east winds with gusts up to 50 mph. We’ll have to keep an eye out for isolated higher gusts as some models are showing.
#wawx
💨 🌲 ❌🔌
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With no winter weather on the horizon we turn to teleconnections to find the next opportunity. One of our best leading indicators is the PNA. It looks like at least the 18th before we have an opportunity for a pattern change.
#wawx
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It’s that time of year where we start to pivot our attention from ❄️ to ⛈ ☀️. There will be some decent CAPE today and a chance for a few thunderstorms with the SE flow.
#wawx
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Some really impressive storms in the Oregon cascades. This is the area to watch. As they move North, flow becomes more easterly and then it’s a question of if they can survive as they drift our way.
#wawx
⚡️ ⛈
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Some convection popping this morning in the sound! First strike just north of Tacoma. Opportunity for this to develop a bit more this morning.
#wawx
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Still some disagreement in the models but the EURO has been locked in on a thunderstorm outbreak Monday. The GFS is much less exciting. Mesoscale models are coming into range which will help a lot. ⚡️
#wawx
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The EURO continues to insist on some snowfall Sunday evening into early Monday morning. Other models do not agree. Big test for what is considered the “king” of weather models…
#wawx
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1/2 I’ve never seen a more uncertain forecast this close to an event. NWS and most local Mets calling for all rain tonight. The GFS is very bullish on snow and the last two EURO runs have moved towards the GFS.
#wawx
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NAM most accurate on initiation. Let’s hope it holds as it paints an exciting picture the rest of the night! ⚡️
#wawx
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Most will be spared from big winds as the storm weakens and stays offshore. However, look out if you’re in the EPS Foothills. Cascadia winds will be a problem.
#wawx
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Some serious cold showing up in this morning’s runs. Here is the daily temperatures from the EPS (left) and ECMWF (right). Still a wide spread but the range is cold to arctic 🥶
#wawx
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