FPL Schadenfreudist
@Schadenfreud1st
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@fplscript pod 1/2.🇮🇳🇪🇸 @ManUtd fan. Chess,Cricket,Maths. xMin👑. EV modeller. Correlation ≠ Causation. @fplreview Elite 1k. SHINZOU WO SASAGEYO. Bruno zealot
FPL 2023/24 - 3,802 🌏
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Pinned Tweet
The EV model is back for 24/25, and it's come with a major upgrade to the content!
👀Adjustable Mins EV model
⚽️Model eG output
📈A better EV model (performance metrics)
💰Daily Fantasy Sports EV model (FanTeam etc.)
#UCLFantasy
#UCL
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World Cup Fantasy Projected Points are now live on the webpage! 🏆
@elevenify
and I have generated projected points for every player using a machine learning model. 🤖
Just use the WeTransfer link in the page to download the spreadsheet.
👇
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#EuroFantasy
#euro2024
Player-level Model is now live for the Official Fantasy game!
Data for
#MD1
will be available to everyone pre-deadline.
Top 10 projected points for MD1 👇
(95-xMins model only!) Bring your own xMins :D
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#EuroFantasy
#euro2024
Final player-level model run is now complete prior to the
#MD1
deadline.
Model changes include: A separate bR model for fbref to UEFA conversion, age profile, MOTM EV revamp, & a slightly more accurate model (~3% increase)
MD1 EV posted with free access
#EuroFantasy
#euro2024
Player-level Model is now live for the Official Fantasy game!
Data for
#MD1
will be available to everyone pre-deadline.
Top 10 projected points for MD1 👇
(95-xMins model only!) Bring your own xMins :D
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#EuroFantasy
#EURo2024
Captaincy matrix for every day of
#MD3
Due to uncertainty of minutes for many teams, I have filtered out options that are likely to start.
Please utilize lineups from both Group A games to verify the 95-xMins model recommendations.
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#EuroFantasy
#euro2024
Final team-level model run is now complete prior to the
#MD1
deadline.
Projected Goals, Goals Against, and Cleansheets are up along with trends, downloadable as a file.
Projected Wins have also been posted for DFS tier patrons.
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#WorldCupFantasy
#MD1
EV for selected players*:
1. GK
🥇Pickford 6.3
🥈Sommer 6.2
🥉Lloris 6.0
2. DEF
🥇Molina 6.3
🥈Alba 5.9
🥉Cancelo 5.8
3. MID
🥇di Maria 8.4
🥈Fernandes 7.0
🥉Sarabia 6.7
4. FWD
🥇Messi 9.0
🥈Ronaldo 7.4
🥉Mbappe 7.3
*Only players predicted to start
World Cup Fantasy Projected Points are now live on the webpage! 🏆
@elevenify
and I have generated projected points for every player using a machine learning model. 🤖
Just use the WeTransfer link in the page to download the spreadsheet.
👇
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@OddsOnFPL
Wow imagine how badly Rooney has ruined him as an Arsenal fan for him to constantly bring up his name in this interview
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@FPLProp
@OfficialFPL
Have been keeping track of The FPL scout and FF scout
FPL scout is on 369 points (~2.4m rank)
FF scout is on 389 points (~1.5m rank)
Pretty appalling tally considering they essentially wild card each week (100 itb shouldn’t make that big a difference)
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Noone:
Absolutely noone:
Noone in their right mind:
Andy Martin:
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#EuroFantasy
#euro2024
Captaincy matrix for every day of
#MD1
# of possible captaincy selections:
MD1 - 5
MD2 - 4
MD3 - 4
Please utilize lineups from the Germany-Scotland game to verify the 95-xMins model recommendations.
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Analytics has been of great help to my health. No more obsessing over decisions, what-could-have-beens and eye tests. Make transfers (preferably w/o hits), review the data model and repeat. All of this inside a year as well. Highly recommend it. Thanks to the
@uncertainty_pod
.
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@NBCSportsSoccer
You do know that Vidic and Evra were signed in the January trf window, right ? Talk about recency bias.
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#WorldCupFantasy
#MD2
EV for selected players*:
1. GK
🥇Courtois 4.9
🥈Alisson 4.6
🥉Martinez 4.6
2. DEF
🥇Molina 4.5
🥈Mladenovic 4.1
🥉 Sandro 4.1
3. MID
🥇di Maria 7.4
🥈Ziyech 6.6
🥉de Bruyne 6.4
4. FWD
🥇Lewandowski 8.3
🥈Messi 7.5
🥉Mbappe 6.6
*predicted to start & p90
#WorldCupFantasy
#MD1
EV for selected players*:
1. GK
🥇Pickford 6.3
🥈Sommer 6.2
🥉Lloris 6.0
2. DEF
🥇Molina 6.3
🥈Alba 5.9
🥉Cancelo 5.8
3. MID
🥇di Maria 8.4
🥈Fernandes 7.0
🥉Sarabia 6.7
4. FWD
🥇Messi 9.0
🥈Ronaldo 7.4
🥉Mbappe 7.3
*Only players predicted to start
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#EuroFantasy
#EURo2024
Captaincy matrix for every day of
#MD4
As with previous MDs, I have filtered out options that are likely to start.
Please utilize lineups from the Switzerland-Italy game to verify the 95-xMins model recommendations.
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I had genuinely planned to publish the attack and defence ratings based on my data model today, but looks like
@FPLmeta
beat me to the punch 😂.
Attack & Defence Ratings for the upcoming
#FPL
season(Avg. xG projections). Brentford the anomaly. Waiting for
@wee_rogue
's ratings⏳
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#EuroFantasy
#EURO2024
Team-level model run is complete, baselines posted on Patreon (free access) to download, link below 👇
Projected Goals, Projected Goals Against, and Projected Cleansheets.
Projected Wins have also been posted for DFS tier patrons.
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@FPLCheetah
Yeah this is fair. Probably Watkins over Haaland for me just because of the game time Haaland has missed and Pickford over Martinez but that is probably trivial
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#WorldCupFantasy
#MD3
EV for selected players*:
1. GK
🥇Alisson 5.6
🥈Simon 5.03
🥉Pickford 4.7
2. DEF
🥇Dumfries 6.2
🥈Raum 5.8
🥉Guerreiro 5.6
3. MID
🥇di Maria 8.2
🥈Asensio 7.7
🥉Sane 7.6
4. FWD
🥇Messi 8.2
🥈Mbappe 7.5 (rotation?)
🥉Ronaldo 7.1
*predicted to start & p90
For anyone who still hates themselves enough to continue playing Official World Cup Fantasy, our webpage has been updated with fresh EV numbers for MD3.
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If Maddison has a million haters, then I am one of them.
If Maddison has ten haters, then I am one of them.
If Maddison has only one hater, then that is I.
If Maddison has no haters, then I am no longer on earth. If the world is with Maddison, then I am against the world.
#FPL
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Finishing skill vs npxG p90 for all PL players (Career data)
Been improving my player-level model in preparation for UCL 2024/25. As part of the data extraction and training the model, I've plotted some aspects of FPL-relevant data*.
*This excludes the latest additions to PL.
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🏆 EURO 2024 FANTASY IS LIVE 🚨
@elevenify
and I will be creating a points prediction model again!
Feel free to sign up below to get notified when the model goes live!
#Eurofantasy
#EURO2024
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#EuroFantasy
#EURO2024
Captaincy matrix for both teams playing in
#MD7
.
As with previous MDs, I have filtered out options that are likely to start. Please utilize lineups to verify the 95-xMins model recommendations.
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Remember, there are no manual interventions in price changes. 😊
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#UCLFantasy
#MD1
🔒
The response to my EV model has been overwhelming!
Thank you for your patronage and support ❤️
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#EuroFantasy
#EURO2024
Final team-level model run was completed yesterday prior to the
#MD4
deadline.
Projected Goals, Goals Against, and Cleansheets are up along with trends, downloadable as a file.
Projected Wins have also been posted for DFS tier patrons.
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One of the worst days of my life today after I got a confirmed diagnosis of a torn ACL. Watching football is going to be so painful going ahead. The road to recovery seems daunting to say the least.
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An Istanbul special
Rolling the FT (could potentially need all 3 subs)
OR: 1.99M
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Haaland + Nkunku still cost 21.5m, the same as last season
Three players who had their 2023/24 seasons interrupted through injuries 🤕
They all have a point to prove this season as £6.5m midfielders 👊
#FPL
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279
4K
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#WorldCupFantasy
#MD6
EV for selected players*:
1. GK
🥇Lloris 5.2
🥈Martinez 4.5
🥉Bounou 3.1
2. DEF
🥇Molina 5.3
🥈Hernandez 4.6
🥉Kounde 4.1
3. MID
🥇di Maria 5.8
🥈de Paul 5.0
🥉Ziyech 4.9
4. FWD
🥇Messi 7.7
🥈Mbappe 6.5
🥉Giroud 6.2
*predicted to start & p90
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Konsa 9pts autosub 🥳🥳
FINALLY got the jam everyone else has been getting
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#EuroFantasy
#EURO2024
Captaincy matrix for both days of
#MD5
As with previous MDs, I have filtered out options that are likely to start. Please utilize lineups from the Spain-Germany game to verify the 95-xMins model recommendations.
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310k rank rise 🙌🏿 what. A. Week.
Could’ve been so much better with Andreas > Mitoma instead of Darwin > Toney but we take the massive W with the WC played in
#GW27
.
Tinkering time 🌟
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Considering GW31-38, esp. for those WC-ing in 31, like myself. I have considered both versions, one without time decay for xPts and one with time decay(lambda = 0.85). Parametric studies are for first team xi values ranging from 83m to 90m for all 8 valid
#FPL
formations.1/n
Finally got time to delve into optimising xPts for the rest of the
#FPL
season (w/o considering transfers) courtesy data from
@fplreview
. Thank you
@sertalpbilal
for all your work, really prompted me to make some time for this stuff (finally). Parametric studies to follow.
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#euro2024
#EuroFantasy
#MD1
Team 🔒
Hope you've found the Euro2024 Fantasy content useful!
Real fun building the model and sharing the numbers, and collaborating with my good friend, elevenify.
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#WorldCupFantasy
#MD4
EV for selected players*:
1. GK
🥇Lloris 4.7
🥈Martinez 4.6
🥉Simon 4.4
2. DEF
🥇Molina 5.9
🥈Acuna 5.4
🥉Trippier 5.3
3. MID
🥇Perisic 6.4
🥈Paqueta 6.2
🥉Fernandes 6.1
4. FWD
🥇Messi 8.2
🥈Mbappe 7.1
🥉Ronaldo 6.1
*predicted to start & p90
Our webpage has been updated with fresh EV numbers for MD4/RO16 for the
#FIFAWorldCup
Fantasy Game.
@elevenify
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#EuroFantasy
#EURo2024
Captaincy matrix for both days of
#MD6
As with previous MDs, I have filtered out options that are likely to start. Please utilize lineups from the Spain-France game to verify the 95-xMins model recommendations.
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Since I am on WC this week, I am tracking price prediction performance of the 3 most popular sources: Hub, FPL Statistics & Fix.
Even with the 2 weeks, it's too small a sample size but should be interesting to track nonetheless.
Reference:
Day 1 ⬇️
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Hopefully, the first of many milestones.
While I realise it’s an insignificant number for many
#FPL
creators, I just wanted to express my gratitude.
We appreciate the support shown by the community and we hope to grow even more this season ❤️
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#EuroFantasy
#MD7
OP: 368
OR: 18k 😐
Carlito has done his part, time for the NT to follow suit! 🇪🇸
Thank you to everyone who has engaged with Euro Fantasy content & supported my work. Publishing EV for 3 consecutive int. tourneys has been a rewarding experience.
#VamosEspa
ña
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#EuroFantasy
#MD4
OP: 194 pts
OR: 39k
Trying to save WC for SF if possible
Gambled on Sabitzer being on pens
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#EuroFantasy
#EURo2024
Captaincy matrix for every day of
#MD2
# of possible captaincy selections:
MD2 - 4
MD3 - 4
Please utilize lineups from the Croatia-Albania game to verify the 95-xMins model recommendations.
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This game is corrupt beyond all measures. A proper, clear-cut assist not given.
765
145
4K
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#GW37
team - Out of Chips
Zabarnyi > Gvardiol (hate it)
Neto > Vicario
Only 1GW left and then we will be there for Euro Fantasy.
OR: 4.3k
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I think WC28 is the way to go for my team. This probably seals it.
Estu, Hwang, Ake, Areola, Pau, and possibly even Solanke :(
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Our model CS% are up:
ARG: 62%
BRA: 60%
FRA: 53%
ESP: 51%
ENG: 50%
NED: 41%
POR: 37%
CRO: 36%
JAP: 25%
USA: 22%
SUI: 20%
MAR: 20%
SEN: 19%
KOR: 11%
POL: 10%
AUS: 10%
#MD4
#WorldCupFantasy
Round of 16 - % Chance of Progression to QF
66% 🇳🇱 vs 🇺🇸 34%
85% 🇦🇷 vs 🇦🇺 15%
45% 🇯🇵 vs 🇭🇷 55%
81% 🇧🇷 vs 🇰🇷 19%
-
69% 🏴 vs 🇸🇳 31%
85% 🇫🇷 vs 🇵🇱 15%
30% 🇲🇦 vs 🇪🇸 70%
65% 🇵🇹 vs 🇨🇭 35%
Source: elevenify x
@Schadenfreud1st
WC model :
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#UCLFantasy
#MD1
OP: 93
OR: 11377
What a start to the data model! Galeno has entered fantasy folklore ❤️
Went Openda over Taremi against the model (cost 2 points)
Fran not starting, Mbappe and Kane getting ridiculous penalties the only sources of sourness
#MD2
WC Loading...
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A short story worth telling
(don’t @ me when Murphy outscores both of them despite playing far fewer minutes)
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#GW36
team
Morris > Isak
Got the same front 7 as everyone else to forfeit any chance of climbing ranks in the last 3 GWs
OR: 6.3k💀
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#EuroFantasy
#EURo2024
Final team-level model run is now complete prior to the
#MD3
deadline.
Projected Goals, Goals Against, and Cleansheets are up along with trends, downloadable as a file.
Projected Wins have also been posted for DFS tier patrons.
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Me on -94.6 variance looking at Sarabia owners crying over a YC
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#WCFantasy
Final Update
OR: 2929
OP: 445
I was privileged to not only see the 🐐 do 🐐 things in the final, but also to see the overwhelming response to the initiative undertaken by
@elevenify
& I. Over 15k views in a month, 100s of downloads per week are stratospheric numbers!
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