Sarah Caul
@Sarah__Caul
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MBE. Currently working on PSP Review. Previous Head of Mortality @ONS during the pandemic. All views are my own, re-tweet and like doesn't imply endorsement.
Joined March 2012
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Pinned Tweet
A thread of (hopefully) useful links which I plan to pin to the top of my profile for ease of access
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Today we released an update on Deaths involving COVID-19 by vaccination status up to December 2022. Here is a thread on the release (1/10)
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Throughout the time series those unvaccinated had a higher age-standardised COVID-19 mortality rate than those who had had any vaccination and those who had had a third dose or booster at least 21 days ago. (6/10)
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Here is a little thread on deaths involving COVID-19 by vaccination status (1/6)
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Today we released Vaccine effectiveness estimated using 2021 Census variables, England: 31 March 2021 to 20 March 2022 (1/9)
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Today the team have released statistics on risk of death following COVID-19 or positive SARS-CoV-2 test in young people and Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine uptake by socio-demographic status and occupation (1/5)
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@IainMulady
@beverleyturner
For a cause to be mentioned on the death certificate it must have contributed to the death. To week ending 4 Feb 22 there were 165,871 deaths involving COVID-19 in England and Wales. The majority will have COVID listed as the underlying cause and may have pre-existing conditions
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A lot of new followers 👋
I'm the head of mortality analysis at ONS. I tweet about our releases and write threads to help explain the data
Here to help people understand the data and answer as many Qs as I can
This is on top of my work, so may be slow to respond.
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Using age-standardised mortality rates, which takes into account the size and age structure of the groups. Those vaccinated had a significantly lower rate of death involving COVID-19 for both males and females in April and May (4/6)
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There has been a lot of interest in mortality in relation to the vaccine and the difference between ONS figures and Yellow Card data. Here’s a thread explaining the differences. (1/9)
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In summary, the numbers are correct but do not tell the whole story. We should take into account the population of each group which tells us that those vaccinated have a lower rate of death involving COVID-19 than those unvaccinated. (5/6)
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Vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 mortality was 58.7% for a first dose, 88.6% for a second dose and 93.2% for a third dose. (8/9)
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Such an honour to receive my MBE today and very glad I got to do it on the same day that
@myer_g
received his OBE
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This five-part Q and A thread answers questions I regularly receive on Twitter in relation to mortality and
#COVID19
. If I haven’t answered a question you have please tweet it to me.
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There has been, understandably, a lot of interest in today's vaccine release. Hard to keep up with notifications but I'm trying my best to respond. May not be that quick a response!
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You may have seen this chart showing that more people vaccinated are dying with COVID mentioned on the death certificate compared to those unvaccinated. However it doesn’t show the full picture. (2/6)
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Between 21 Mar 2021 to 20 Mar 2022, vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation for COVID-19 was 52.2% for a first dose, 55.7% for a second dose and 77.6% for a third dose (7/9)
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Thank you to the team that produces this for all their hard work and for allowing me to tweet about it (10/10)
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The risk of death publication can be found in the link () and the stats comment is shown in this picture (2/5)
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I shall do more responses tomorrow. For now the most common things I've said today:
1. Numbers do not take into account the population of the groups, please use the ASMRs
2. If you are vaccinated you are included in the vaccinated category. Even if you had the vaccine yesterday
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Today's release shows the number of deaths in the North East and the South West regions were below the five-year average (3.2% and 2.8% fewer deaths). This is the first time since week ending 23 October 2020 that deaths in any English region have been below the five-year average.
The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 26 February 2021 (Week 8) was 12,614.
This was
▪️ 1,195 fewer than Week 7
▪️ 1,066 higher than the five-year average for Week 8
➡️
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In the latter half of 2022, non-COVID mortality rates for vaccinated people and those who have had at least a third dose or booster have been more similar to those of unvaccinated people than earlier in the year, although they remain slightly higher for unvaccinated people (7/10)
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Hi everyone – I'm now using my account in an official capacity for
@ONS
as Head of Mortality Analysis. So expect to see more tweets on health analysis and life events! (Mainly deaths but I’ll try and throw in some births and baby names to cheer up the balance!)
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Two clarifications on the methodology. 1. ONS count someone as vaccinated from the day on which they receive a vaccination. (3/10)
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I would like to thank everyone for their kind words over the weekend. Still hard to believe that I've got an MBE! I'm very fortunate to receive this for a job that I absolutely love. I'm so proud of the work we've achieved, my
@ONS
and wider health statistics colleagues.
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Here is the ONS thread
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Today's release means we have a year of COVID death registrations (Week 11 2020 to Week 10 2021). In that time there have been 651,310 deaths registered in England and Wales, 120,181 above average. 135,808 (20.9%) mentioned COVID-19.
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A thread on 10 common Qs in relation to our analysis of mortality by vaccination status
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Using our ONS data for deaths registered up to June 2021, there has been 4 deaths where adverse reaction to the vaccine was mentioned on the death certificate. Of these, 0 had it as the underlying cause of death (8/9)
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The number and characteristics of those who are vaccinated and unvaccinated are different, are we need to take these into account when looking at the number of deaths for each group (3/6)
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2. the ASMRs are not equivalent to measures of vaccine effectiveness; they account for differences in age structure and population size, but there may be other differences between the groups (particularly underlying health) that affect mortality rates. (4/10)
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And a paper published here: (4/5)
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For personal reasons, I'll be unavailable on here for the foreseeable future
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We were planning on including information on spring and autumn boosters but we currently do not have access to the data. We therefore decided to publish rather than wait for the data (5/10)
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Although the methodology to calculate rates has not changed for this release there have been some changes including updating to census 2021 and the removal of period to date numbers. More information can be found in the release (2/10)
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Here is a thread on vaccine effectiveness published the team published as a pre-print (1/9)
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@jneill
@allanplaskett
@wheezylouse
@hartgroup_org
@ONS
We report the number of deaths involving adverse effects of the vaccine as part of monthly mortality analysis, as of January there were 0 deaths in England and Wales
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The headline release and datasets can be found here: (9/10)
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There are many breakdowns in the release including which dose and whether it was within 21 days or not, age group and sex. These are just the high level points. (8/10)
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There is also a blog published alongside the release (3/5)
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@DavidTaylorYork
@leithshorebook1
@ParkinJim
@whykeepitup
@SGriffin_Lab
@MichaelYeadon3
Hi all - for a death certificate to mention COVID it must have contributed to the death. 'Due to' means it was the underlying cause, 'involving' means it could be the underlying or a contributory cause
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@USMortality
We do reports on excess deaths which will look at the cause in any excess deaths. Next one is out tomorrow
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@truthorcorrupt
@jneill
@AThankless
@profnfenton
@d_spiegel
No we didn't. We added that as extra information. It's my release, I've been doing it since before the pandemic. The only changes have been adding extra information. We still count death registrations each week
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There is a lot more information in the release. I'll respond to any queries but may be slow due to meetings (9/9)
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@UncommonSense74
The data isn't biased, we are independent. There is a possibility that your circumstances doesn't tally with that found across England
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Today's suicide release shows that in 2020, there were 5,224 suicides registered in England and Wales, equivalent to an age-standardised mortality rate of 10.0 deaths per 100,000 people and statistically significantly lower than the 2019 rate of 11.0 deaths per 100,000.
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@955196
Apologies, I'm not sure the issue is? COVID is to be mentioned where it contributed to the death - this is the same as all causes. If it's probable COVID but no test results then COVID - which to me suggest if it's evidence then put it? If they were unsure it would go to coroner.
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The link to the vaccination uptake publication is here: (5/5)
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I took some time of for personal reasons, but now I am back and ready to answer any mortality related queries you may have! If you reached out whilst I was away, you may want to tag me again if you still want an answer
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Vaccine effectiveness is the reduction in risk due to receiving a vaccine (4/9)
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@Jikkyleaks
@JohnBeaudoinSr
@Vnafilyan
@sarahjestock
Actually, all that information is available online:
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Hopefully this has helped explain the difference between the two sources and the benefits of both (9/9)
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Today’s analysis also accounts for a wide range of a wide range of socio-demographic and health-related factors and aim to estimate the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines (3/9)
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@jayne_puligan
@PappeP
@Emma34770971
@BottomleyFiona
@GrandePois
@RoxanneLJames
@JuliaHadley15
@EmmaKennedy
@Matthew_Wright
Hi all - To May 2021, there have been 139,722 deaths involving COVID-19, of which 124,200 were due to COVID. There have been 3 deaths involving the vaccine, of which 0 were due to the vaccine. This information will be updated to include June on Friday.
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The age-standardised mortality rates published in our Deaths by Vaccination status release only account for differences in age between vaccinated and unvaccinated people. (2/9)
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It is estimated by comparing the risk in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, accounting for differences in each population (confounding factors) (5/9)
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@mugglematrix
If the jabs did more harm than good then that is what we would present. What benefit would we get from lying about the jab?
We are independent and we present what the data shows. I'm sorry if you don't like what we report because it doesn't support your views
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A list of what we take into account can be found in section 2 of the release (6/9)
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Today we released a new blog on what we are doing around excess mortality: (1/3)
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Private homes are the only place where deaths have been consistently above the five-year average (2015 to 2019) in all months from January 2020 to June 2021.
1/5
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As expected there has been some discussion around the change to the five-year average. I've been in meetings all day and so have not been able to reply individually. Here is a thread which should hopefully answer all the questions I have seen. Sorry, I do love a thread! (1/12)
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As part of todays release, we published the number of deaths coded as a result of the COVID vaccine, which was 0 in both England and Wales for registrations up to January 2021 (Table 12 - )
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We have also updated table 12 in monthly mortality analysis, the number of deaths where adverse reaction to the vaccine was mentioned on the death certificate is 15, of these 10 had it listed as the underlying cause (up to December 2021)
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Today, thanks to the amazing people I work with, we have managed to release weekly deaths, deaths registered in 2020 and COVID-19 in 2020. Alongside this we have helped in an article on births and deaths, updated our QMI and User Guide (technical information on deaths)
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Today we have released monthly mortality analysis for January 2023. Part of which includes the leading cause of excess deaths for the month
Mortality rates for Jan 2023 were significantly higher compared with Jan 2022 in England and Wales:
▪️ 63,177 deaths were registered in England – 11.7% above the Jan five-year average
▪️ 4,230 deaths were registered in Wales, 13.6% above the average
➡
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Taking a break from answering some questions to ask some questions to raise money for the samaritans in memory of a close friend, Danielle Cornish
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@UncommonSense74
That is unfortunate that you have had 4 people die in relation to the vaccine.
However, that is your experience and those around you (assuming they know the same people) and doesn't mean it necessarily is the story across England
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Today we have released 'Excess deaths in England and Wales: March 2020 to December 2022' (1/4)
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@truthorcorrupt
@jneill
@profnfenton
@d_spiegel
Hey - I lead on this work for the ONS. The number of deaths is higher for ONS because not everyone will have been tested for COVID-19. Especially at the start of the pandemic where the number of tests were limited.
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A1: ONS counts a death involving COVID-19 as a death where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. This means the medical professional believed COVID-19 had been involved in the chain of events that led to the death (1/6)
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Really happy that
@RoyalStatSoc
asked me to do this interview. Love talking about statistics and about how much I love my job!
Our 'Statistics Are Vital' campaign looks to highlight the crucial role statisticians have played in our response to Covid
For our second interview we speak to
@SarahCaul_ONS
who was awarded an MBE for her work on mortality statistics
#VitalStats
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I won't be interacting with the post which claims I made another organisation stop publishing, however I will add the vaccine threads to my pinned tweets.
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@truthorcorrupt
@AThankless
@jneill
@profnfenton
@d_spiegel
COVID would only be mentioned on the death certificate if it contributed to the death. We have cases where someone tested +ve but it was not mentioned in the death certificate
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Vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 mortality was 58.7% (52.7% to 63.9%) for a first dose, 88.5% (87.5% to 89.5%) for a second dose and 93.2% (92.9% to 93.5%) for a third dose, with evidence of waning 3+ months after the second and third doses. (5/9)
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@CodeDissonant
We have quite a few releases on long covid. Here is one which has links to others at the bottom. Hope that helps
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@judysimpson222
@Christo19725794
@elijah3570
@GMB
The number of deaths due to the vaccine are reported monthly in table 12 (). The number is currently 43 deaths involving the vaccine, of which 37 were due to the vaccine
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@SenseiTodd
This is based on census 21, so is fairly recent. We model so that we can take into account the differences in the population groups, however the data tables have the results not fully adjusted
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@jtweeter14
@Sharpe_Actuary
Just because someone tests positive for COVID doesn't mean that it will be mentioned on the death certificate. The death certificate is a legal document and if you believe any doctor has been falsifying records then I suggest raising it with the doctor or coroner in question
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Within today's release () we've updated Table 12. This shows that for deaths registered up to June 2021 there has been 4 deaths involving adverse reaction to the vaccine, none of which were the underlying cause.
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A nice change from deaths today. My grandparents are celebrating their 65th wedding anniversary. One of 352,944 weddings in 1956 (.) My grandad still looks at my grandma like a love sick teenager!
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@ClareCraigPath
@JaneHogarth84
To 1: I don't see evidence, I see an assumption based on excess deaths? You've assumed people were putting COVID instead of the actual cause. There are alternative explanations which could contribute to below mortality in some causes. Or have I missed a link to evidence?
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Today we published monthly mortality analysis, we have added a table (table 13 in the reference tables) on deaths involving the vaccine by age-group
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A1: Information provided on the death certificates take longer to collate but provide more robust figures on the number of deaths involving and due to COVID-19. (6/6)
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For ONS data, we look at where COVID-19 vaccines causing adverse effects is mentioned on the death certificate. Meaning the medical professional certifying the death believed, to the best of their knowledge, that the vaccine was part of the events that led to the death (5/9)
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The nature of Yellow Card reporting means that reported events are not always proven side effects. Some events may have happened anyway, regardless of vaccination. (4/9)
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A1: Also, in some cases, the person may have tested positive for COVID-19 but the medical professional believed that COVID-19 did not play a part in the death. This means COVID-19 would not appear on the death certificate. (4/6)
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The person certifying the deaths will have access to all the information surrounding the death and can complete a post-mortem and hold an inquest if necessary to determine the cause of death (6/9)
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Today, on top of the usual weekly deaths (last release until after the festive break), we have released a few publications on international comparisons of excess mortality (1/8)
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@955196
- COVID-19 can be placed anywhere on the certificate (which is why we have deaths due to and deaths involving COVID)
- Only when it is the underlying cause
- Doctors can use things other than the test to come to COVID-19 as a cause
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Busy today, can't keep up with all the twitter notifications. So..
1. We will announce a date for COVID by vaccination status soon
2. The delay has been to improve data sources and noted on the website
3. I won't be commenting any further on this (it's not my work)
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This data takes longer to come through as it is based on death registrations and deaths that go to a coroner to be investigated tend to take longer to be registered (7/9)
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The Yellow Card scheme is useful because it helps monitor potential side effects of the vaccine and is timely. Any member of the public or health professional can submit suspected side effects through the Yellow Card scheme. (3/9)
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I’ve taken the yellow card details from their release. I’m happy to be corrected if I have misinterpreted something (2/9)
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@mcbride360
@localnotail
@jneill
@naturaltosmile
All causes can be mentioned on the death certificate. If someone died of influenza, it would be mentioned on the death certificate.
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New favourite insult is 'knucklehead with the dyed hair'. Never thought my hair would come into it! Previously dyed red, now dyed purple. Although glad to see the description of 'red hair and glasses' continues.
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Today we have updated our deaths involving COVID-19 by vaccination status to include deaths occurring up to 24 September
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