WC
@Sanctuary_Bio
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Biotech investor. Tweets reflect my own opinion
Joined April 2017
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$SRPT Posting for the benefit of those not following STAT+ or following
@Biohazard3737
...everyone should be able to see this
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All biotech public acquisitions >$1B from 2018-2024 ytd. Included acquirer. Make of it what you will
2024 ytd to 2022
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I have some fun news
I will be joining Slingshot Insights as their research manager.
Looking foward to working with
@JMac_SI
and his team, and by affiliation, I'm sure I'll be working more closely with some of you as well!
Have a good weekend.
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@RampCapitalLLC
I don't say this lightly
This is one of the most offensive things I've ever seen on the internet
My god
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With $XBI at 52 week lows
36.6% of biotechs trade under cash
Over half of biotechs (51%) under $300M mc (microcaps) trade under cash
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In the spirit of the acquisitions announced this week, I decided to look at how some of the ones since 2014 have fared.
Guidelines:
- 2019 revenue guided in 14D-9/14A
- SMids only...didn't really want to consolidate large bio/BP revenues...mb later
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Personal news: over the last week while on vacay, things went to such utter shit that I decided the paycheque is no longer worth my physical/emotional health
I have requested a LoA, hoping will give me enough time to evaluate other opportunities
Enough is enough, wish me luck!
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$GLMD so disgusted by this that I took the time to mark this up. Did I miss anything?
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@drdagly
healthcare in this province is being gutted and people don't seem to care until it affects them or their families directly.
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Good morning
I liquidated a bunch of stuff yesterday (including imgn) to buy real estate
Such is life
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Seriously, hats off to
@AndyBiotech
and
@jq1234t
in this difficult time
Dessiminating objective info to digest however one sees fit
This is the true essence of
#BioTwitter
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I'm tweeting this because first and foremost, I'm ok.
I had a bad ski accident which could have been life-threatening.
I was skiing Lake Louise West Bowl, a new area (just opened this year).
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$BIIB in layman's terms, the most potent drug candidate ever developed wrt clearing amyloid beta in symptomatic AD didn't even make it to final analysis
Every trial with a similar approach should be instantly terminated.
Execs who disagree should be fired.
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I said I'd stop doing this, but turnover these days is really low and honestly I don't really care, in the spirit of 13F season lol
Top 10 concentration of 49%, 81% for top 20
Total of 40 positions in my long book
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Imagine having your head this far up your ass
I know Twitter rewards engagement, but I'm amazed he has over 20k followers
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Biotech investors when they see generalists freak out over current mkt volatility
Now they know what we go through on an almost annual basis ;)
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Going to recap CYTK here...because while history doesn't repeat, it does rhyme.
I was generally pretty happy with how my midcap clinical catalysts played out this year, particularly bbio, imgn and crnx, but it is very rare that the deck is stacked like it is for cytk.
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@calvns_here
@arihappywick
@TrungTPhan
It rly depends on how fashion-aware the observing person is.
Someone fashion-aware will spot these but an individual who doesn't care about these things won't
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That's about 19% of all biotechs. In fact, biotechs, pharmaceuticals and med devices make up 37% of all companies trading under cash
Let's face it, the vast majority of these are worth more dead than alive
There are 129 biopharma companies trading below cash right now
$XBI
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Just my humble opinion, but if you are trying to improve public perception to grow your businesss, disparaging one of the best buysiders on Twitter in such a ridiculous manner is probably not an effective use of your time
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$BIIB are you serious...I mean every other drug targeted amyloid plague has failed to show any clinical benefit, but sure I guess now it's different
And so begins the age of billions of unnecessary healthcare spend, compounded with more R&D $ wasted targeting amyloid plague
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A bit bummed out today. Just found out a friend from school whose cancer had metastasized passed away. He was only 32.
2020 has been an incredibly rough year, be kind to others, you don't know what they are going through
"Just remember, data always a face to it"
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Mkt caps of covid plays...
$MRNA - 30.8B
$VIR- 4.7B
$NVAX - 3.4B
$INO - 2.2B
$SRNE - 1.8B
Keep piling on, I'm sure it'll turn out great
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public biotech M&A >$1B certainly slowed to a crawl...June to 9/16 below
Hasn't been this slow since 2018 where there were actually no deals
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Thread for the new year, focusing on portfolio strategy and opportunity cost
In my time as a biotech investor, I think there have been 3 distinct eras
2012-2015: Rise of biotech, driven by key achievements by lg cap names. Valuations are obscene given actual progress
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Trump probably would have won if he had shown any semblance of competence in dealing with the pandemic
Instead he demonized Democratic governors, healthcare professionals, media
In the end, he dug his own grave. 237k dead. "I don't take responsibility at all"
Gtfo
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$XBI You really have to wonder if biotechs will ever make a meaningful recovery without low interest rates.
High cost of capital and total aggregate needs across the entire industry is proving to be an almost insurmountable challenge
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$XBI How bad has the 2021 been for biotechs so far?
Still well within parameters of every bear in the last decade
"Remember from whence you came"
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I try not to post personal stuff but I'll make an exception here.
Friend's wife was diagnosed with GBM. She's only 39, 2 kids. I don't need to tell biotech folks how bad that is.
If you wish to donate, link is here:
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$GILD balance sheet highlights...
$18.9B cash and equivalent
$24.6B current assets
$10.5B current liabilities
$21B LT debt
This is a "bet the farm" bet.
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@sharkbiotech
the FDA needs to grow a spine and CRL at the very least, and probably pull it. Enough is enough. These guys annualize at $1B and have never completed a positive confirmatory trial. It's companies like these that give biopharm a bad name
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@unusual_whales
there's a pretty obvious reason. Their lead is similar MoA to the LBPH drug which was acquired yesterday. Float is tiny + social media hype, there you go
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Buyouts of 2021...description/target
$PAND - IL-2 mutein fused to Fc backbone (Treg activation)
$FPRX - FGFR2b
$CNST - BET
$TRIL - CD47
$TBIO - mRNA
$KDMN - ROCK2
Takeaways? Seems like most buyout companies have relatively 'novel' approaches...
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I was on the fence about tweeting this thread, since I don’t use a pseudonym. But I think it’ll be useful to (cont)
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Biotech is so wild.
If you were tell someone 2 years ago that CD19 targeted therapies would become all the rage again you would be laughed out of the room and fired
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Account I liquidated yesterday looked like this, kept MRTX for obvious reasons but yea
Midcap focused, not an exhaustive list, also fond of $ACLX $AMLX $BHVN $EXEL $ROIV
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Reminder that $SRPT has done $333M in product sales first nine months of 2020, yet they still haven't completed the confirmatory studies over 4 years after eteplirsen was approved
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1 month median biotech return:
Large caps: -7.69%
Mid: -13.86% 1/41 below cash
Small: -15.46%, 9/157 below cash
Micro: -17.08%, 99/231 below cash
Nano: -18.38%, 155/270 below cash
Check this out
Median 1 month return across all below cash names: -20.61%
above cash: -13.91%
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@Biohazard3737
i can't even
whoever knew the optimal strategy for 2020 would be to think like a complete idiot and then make the trade before they do
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Hey kid, welcome to the family.
I shall name him Maximus. Or Max for short.
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Well that was my best day ever.
Suffice to say I held a lot of cytk going in
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$XBI thought I would put this out there. If you are a professional this obviously does not apply to you, but if you have struggled with position sizing, or continue to struggle with position sizing, maybe this can help.
Have a great weekend Biotwitter!
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Some SMid ideas I'm particularly interested in for 2020, esp in the first half
$OCUL watch the sales cycle...esp during Q1 earnings
$BLU P2 mid year
$AIMT late January PDUFA and subsequent sales
$ZGNX March 25 PDUFA...GWPH Epideiolex real world discontinuation, so...
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When was the last time we had 3 acquisitions announced in a day $ALBO $AMYT $CINC
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$TRIL from -58.6% ytd to +25.8% upon deal close
Makes you wonder about some of these beat down names...
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There we go ;) $FTSV
I've thought about this, crunched some numbers, and I think $GILD - $FTSV makes a lot of sense in the context of O'Day strategy
I have a base takeout valuation of about 3B EV...67/share
Depending on GILD optimism I think it could be as high as the 90s
Place your bets...
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Say what you want about about 2022, but there were some big P3 wins:
$BIIB - Lecanemab amyloid hypothesis is back...
$KRTX - simple combination of xanomeline-trospium safe and effective, even improving negative symptoms
$MDGL - THR-beta agonism hits on fibrosis!
What else?
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Maybe this is a tailwind for biotech
You can miss primary endpoint and get approval in populations not even studied
rare disease biotechs to the moon
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@PointsNorth_Cap
Saturday night investment club?
As important as investments are to my life, I can think of like 99 things I'd rather do on Saturday nights than discuss investments lol
Rough, but lessons learned I hope
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$MRNA new ATH and I guess worth more than $ALXN which has a $5.3B TTM revenue
Makes sense
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Are people seriously complaining that the $XBI is down 7% so far this week after being up 11% last week?
There were literally days in March where the XBI was down over 10% in a day
Memories are short, god forbid stocks don't go straight up 🤦♂️
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$IBB $XBI it's been ~ 18 months since I joined Twitter, and I wish I did it earlier.
For those who are new to Twitter and/or biotech investing, I've compiled a list of follows who are essential for navigating this space. Obviously not an exhaustive list!
Here's to a strong Q4!
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@Florian93721335
@hakahaka
@DrNGrewal
@DeL2000
You do, but at least if you aren't showing up at the bottom your friends are gonna flag patrol
If you are solo and a stranger doesn't see/find you, it can get very bad very fast. I refuse to ski solo, even on days that should be "easy"
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YTD median by market cap
Nano (<50M): -50%
Micro (bt 50 and 300M): -36%
Small (bt 300M and 2B): -17%
Mid (bt 2 and 10B): -8%
Large+: -19% (or -8% depending on definition)
Sounds about right...XBI is mostly small caps (-15%), micros and nanos left for dead funding-wise
With $XBI at 52 week lows
36.6% of biotechs trade under cash
Over half of biotechs (51%) under $300M mc (microcaps) trade under cash
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The more years I spend as a biotech investor, the more I am convinced that one of the best characteristics someone can have is to be mild-tempered. Unfortunately Idk how easily this can be taught, think a lot of it may boil down to personality
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You have to give $AMGN credit here...moved at lightning speed, AMG 510 only began enrolling for P1 in July of 2018
As far as oncology goes, that's gotta be pretty close to a record
$AMGN wins FDA approval for first KRAS-blocking lung cancer drug Story includes Lumakras price. $MRTX
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Quick list I put together, large biotechs ranked by lowest downside solely due to valuation, just imo ofc
1. ABBV
2. CELG
3. BMY
4. ALXN
5. BIIB
6. GILD
7. REGN
8. INCY
9. AMGN
10. VRTX
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Unbelievable call, even got valuation right
I have no idea how $MRK is justifying $40B+ for $SGEN but grats to the Baker Bros
@ofthegreen
Brilliant deal w/ Cascadian .. love the company, interesting to see how all these onco assets play out.. valuation well beyond my normal range of interest.. I often joke around w/ my DM biotwitter-mates, there will be one morning I wake up and see MRK bot SGEN at a crazy price.
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For the week...
$XBI +5.2%
$SPY -2.2%
Biotech investors when they see everyone else panicking about the dip in their tech stocks or w/e
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What a beautiful Friday afternoon, let me check my portfolio before I head out to enjoy the weather oh my god
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Did a call in early Aug on $CLDX, and I have to say, the KOL absolutely nailed the pigmentation risk
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Just heard of this $TBIO rumor and if it ends up being legit and is a catalyst for a biotech rally would maybe cap the circus of 2021
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Went to pick up some beer at some local craft brewery, lady asks me for ID
Took all my strength to not say "Erin, we graduated high school together"
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$GBT wow...no adcom, almost 3 months early
FDA sure is generous these days
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Maybe my perception is off cause I'm jetlagged as f and have been passing time catching up on
#ESMO23
, but is this not one of the most interesting ESMO in a while?
ALINA, PAPILLON, LIBRETTO-431, EV-302 v impressive
more interesting earlier stage data too
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What a gem. CEOs of this caliber are few and far between
Merck CEO Ken Frazier will retire later this year, leaving just 3 Black CEOs at Fortune 500 companies. He tells
@megtirrell
public service will be in his future, with a focus on equity, justice and education.
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And to think, the combined $BMY + $CELG has a lower market cap than either of these companies at their peak
Just an incredible showing of value destruction from both companies
Better hope two heads are better than one, this is BMY's last chance
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$AMRN commercially, this is the most important slide in presentation
There are probably 1 or 2 clinical readouts each year which really impress me, where I think 'History is being made today.'
This is one of them.
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It is staggering how much $GILD has spent on oncology and how little they have to show for it. Lot of pressure on TROPiCS-02 readout
Mb hire some BD folks from AZN or something, they seem to know what they are doing
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So like, just a reminder that since 2014, the $XBI has had a 20%+ drawdown in every year except for 2017
I.e this is still pretty normal
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Got asked twice about Ozempic (and GLP class by extension) over the weekend. Both times concerns about lean muscle mass was raised.
Clearly context is important and there is a lot of misinformation floating around
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OK cytk was the last event I cared about
Enjoy the rest of the holidays and see you in the new year ✌️
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As someone without a science background, really impressed with the content
@brendan_49
has put out this year, rly amped his game
If there was an annual BioTwitter "most improved" award I'd for sure nominate him!
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As the years go by my investing has only become more conservative, yet returns are still competitive as DD, and risk management, has made up for it
Ultimately you need money to make money. This Thanksgiving give thanks you are lucky to have that privilege! Not everyone does.
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I think I'm just gonna remind everyone that $SBTX pulled a $241.5M IPO and $BOLT pulled a $230M IPO at $663M and $670M each, both of which also priced higher than range
How do I say this nicely...please stop flooding the market with garbage. We don't want it $XBI
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Going through the feed on a certain ticker just now...I have to say it is pretty disappointing to see just how vindictive people can be
I hope you never make a high profile mistake in your career
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$FDMT $ADVM honestly I didn't know people were still interested in gene therapy for wAMD
concerns about steroid use, durability, inflammation, etc
pretty strong believer that the best targets for gene therapy are for fatal genetic diseases with limited or no alternative
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It's almost stupid how much $ was made by biotech investors this week...just unreal
Imagine not investing...to me, it's as silly as not cooking, exercising, or drinking beer
Once people understand it's the easiest way the avg person can accumulate real wealth, rest is history
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$SMMT and $TIL are top 1 and 4 performers in biotech YTD, up 949 and 451% respectively
honestly that SMMT can lead all biotechs at a current 20B valuation is remarkable
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$SGYP lessons learned, if they aren't obvious by now:
Getting a drug approved is often not enough. Need to consider competition, finances of company in question
Or put even more simply, take into account every factor possible that could affect the quality of your investment.
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Great thing about being in biotech is you see investors in other stuff talk about volatility and it just doesn't resonate with you on any significant level
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last tweet on $CYTK before the next wsj update lol
CYTK closed at 83.49 on December 27.
If you assume that JNJ, AZN and NVS submitted offers, It's probably safe to assume they were at a premium to the closing price. If NVS was the front runner, why is CYTK below that now?
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The $FTSV 14D-9 is actually interesting, there was a lot going on
Very interesting to see the urgency in getting the deal done after the leak
Wonder who party x was...safe to assume they are a smaller player...and still on the hunt
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This whole thing is just so sad and pathetic.
Millennials in states with uncontrolled community transmission, refusing to wear masks or distance despite evidence that survivors can still have permanent complications
Just so unbelievably selfish
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Some folks have been asking, this is what's on my book.
XBI: 1 yr 14.72%, 3 yr 14.52%, 5 yr 9.68% for comparison
IBB: 1 yr 9.83%, 3 yr 9.65%, 5 yr 3.56%
The idea behind so many holdings is to hold pretty high correlation to indices
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@sharkbiotech
imo, the 2020 market post-March has warped how a generation of new traders perceive the markets.
a market where valuations don't matter, where you just buy whatever Chamath/Cathie etc are buying without doing DD yourself
this is a true reversion to the mean
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$IBB $XBI some broad thoughts I have going forward, hopefully someone out there derives some value from this
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So on the positive side, I just got my first dose. Yay.
On the negative side, when I asked when I should come back for my second dose, the pharmacist replied "3 months. Or maybe 6 weeks. We actually don't know. Just phone us in a month"
Can see why little faith in our govt...
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$XBI +11.7% this week, 5 green candles in a row 😱
pumpkin season over?
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Let me get this straight
In the last month $ROIV IMVT-401 hit big, which they own over half of, they just sold Telavant for $7.1B (75% stake), and you mean to tell me the share price is actually lower?
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biotech investors not really being adequately rewarded lately...
$SRPT gets best-case scenario, +27%, should probably be ATH
$SVRA -10% on phase 3 hit
$VRNA flat on approval
granted caveats with the last two but why play at all if that's the case?
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