Samuel Bendett
@sambendett
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Analysis of military robotics, drones/UAVs, AI and Russian military weapons development. CNA, CNAS and CSIS. Opinions my own. @sambendett .bsky.social
Joined October 2010
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Explanation for major volunteer/DIY efforts on both sides in this war: "Soldiers are forced to improvise and ensure their own safety in conditions where new technologies threaten life faster than information reaches the top military brass and security measures are formulated."
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A DIY copter made in Yemen from sticks and a simple motor. Talk about drone proliferation - this is about as simple as it gets.
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1/ "Drones made of plastic foam or plastic are harder to find on radar. Ukraine buys them from commercial suppliers, along with parts such as radios, cameras, antennas and motors. The drone units mix and match parts until they find combinations that can fly past sophisticated
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1/3 Ukraine's Robert "Magyar" Brovdi, talking with The Economist: During the next 6-8 months, humans will no longer be needed to control drones in Ukraine - the war will become truly unmanned. The evolution of such technologies will...
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1/ QUICK TAKE - Russians are worried that Ukrainian military is targeting their fixed-wing ISR drones: "This is an extremely alarming development. While people do not directly die from such actions, the consequences may be more serious than from the delivery of dozens of Abrams
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This looks like a real photo - a Russian MBT has piled "everything" for EW protection against drones - "antennas in the 800/900/2.4/5.8 MHz and GHz ranges, added blocks for the 700-1000 bands, plus a generator and battery."
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1/ This is an interesting thread from a Ukrainian soldiers going through Western military training in Germany. Key points that stand out: "They do not rely on electronic devices at all, and the fact that we go on missions with Chinese smartphones and tablets was wild for them."
Тред про навчання в Німеччині. Частина 2
Так я був у взводі розвідки, навчали нас американські рейнджери. Програма була націлена саме на розвідку. Було три основних інструктор, ось такі мордовороти. Вони втрьох були однаково квадратними.
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Chinese “version” of what happened with its balloon over US territory
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1/ Russian Telegram channels are reporting a large-scale Ukrainian UAV strike on Crimea overnight - "five UAV groups (32 UAVs total) from the Shkolny airfield in Odessa took off in several directions to targets - Russian air defense units destroyed 17 drones and..."
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1/2 From Russian Telegrams: Ukrainians' use of large, heavy agricultural quadcopter/multirotor drones is a major threat to the Russian military. Dubbed "Baba Yaga" (an ogress in Slavic folklore) by the Russians, such drones can carry up to 50kg of bombs.
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Pro-Kremlin Telegram: "Recently, the Ukrainian military buyers have bought up almost the entire market of FPV components in China - for around 50-100,000 quadcopter units. They already trained more than a 1000 FPV operators. They turn these drones into kamikazes with a grenade
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1/ Good
@thewarzonewire
summary of today's unmanned strike on Sevastopol. This will no doubt be analyzed by the Russian MOD and the use of maritime military autonomy will once again be debated as essential to Russia's warfighting capability. But...
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1/ SHORT THREAD: An update on the Russian drone operations we have seen 18 days into this war. Earlier, Russian advance lacked ISR/combat UAV that were part of their regular CONOPS/TTPs as defined by training, exercises, and military deployments to Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh.
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1/ Russian Telegram channels are discussing a new Ukrainian air defense suppression tactic: Russian aviation launched guided bombs/missiles from a safe distance, forcing Ukr. military to position air defense systems closer to the front line to shoot them down. Then...
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8/ For reference, this is what Russians are worried about.
Ukrainian FPV drone attacks and destroys Russia’s ZALA ISR UAV.
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THREAD: Five days into this war: a few observations about technologies not actually seen so far – UAVs. Its still early to make any definitive conclusions, and Russia military experts warn that much can change still. 1/
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Russia’s Dmitry Rogozin via his Telegram channel: “Marker UGVs have arrived in Donbas. We will start uploading target images and combat algorithms, and will install anti-tank weapons.”
1/ Dmitry Rogozin's efforts to prep for the arrival of Marker UGVs include creating hardened facilities for UGV/UAV training and manufacturing - the following is from his Telegram channel.
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4/3 Magyar" noted that "tomorrow" experienced fighters can go to different countries of the world to train the NATO army in the latest war tactics: "This will be an element of our practical gratitude for your help in our struggle for our freedom, for our land, for our families."
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2/ "Many units/actions depend on such ISR drones (Zala, Supercam, Orlan). Destroying our "eyes" in the sky will set us back a generation, forcing us to fight in 2D while the enemy continues to wage war in 3D. FPV drones are cheap, but big ISR UAVs are not."
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1/ QUICK TAKE: Appreciate the thread by
@WarintheFuture
yesterday that highlighted key points in current and future combat UGV development that we can discern form this video. Would like to add the following points as well. Firsts, what we are witnessing is a rapid...
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3/ "If previously Ukrainians were waiting for supplies of scarce Western missiles for air defense, now they can also use interceptor drones with great effect. FPVs can already fly at speeds of up to 500 km/hour. All our slow-flying drones, including Geran (loitering munition) are
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"The drone, made of Styrofoam-like material and costing $1,500, crashed into one of the antennas, detonating on contact. With the Russians’ jamming ability suddenly disrupted, the Ukrainians then destroyed the EW tower..."
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1/ QUICK THREAD: While Russia was hosting Army-2022 military expo, Ukraine hosted its first international Drone Hackathon on August 26 in order to develop new ideas in military technology for the production of drones.
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1/ QUICK THREAD based on an interview in an article below with an operator of a Ukrainian heavy R-18 multirotor drone. Main points below:
R-18 operator Yevhen talks about the peculiarities of his work
#aerorozvidka
#airreconnaissance
#drone
#droneoperator
#Ukraine
#war
#StandWithUkraine
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4/ "In addition, the Ukrainians plan to shoot down our attack helicopters that come close to the front line. Fortunately, there were no such cases, but the enemy is working on this. Another advantage of interceptor drones is their mobility and stealth."
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Greek specialists fitted a Hydra-70 rocket on a heavy quadrotor drone.
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1/ QUICK TAKE - Russia’s Dmitry Rogozin (former head of Roskosmos and self-styled mil-tech volunteer) sounds impressed and concerned with Ukrainian drones: “They fly in entire squadrons consisting of pairs of heavy Baba Yaga attack UAVs - each drone carries up to 6 munitions and
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1/ QUICK TAKE from Russia's Project Archangel volunteer effort on the impact of Ukrainian drones on Russian advances and tactics - quick translation as follows: "How are things now? Frankly, they suck. From October'23 to today, the Ukrainian forces have been slowing down and
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I just realized that Ukraine's official military doctrine "APPLICATION OF UNMANNED SYSTEMS IN THE DEFENSE FORCES OF UKRAINE" begins with my quote. Very humbled and rather shocked. 😳
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6/ "...were able to establish a system for detecting and destroying our fixed-wing drones. Building such a system is the key to successful (interceptor drone) application. Without it, an FPV drone will not find a target at an altitude of several thousand meters."
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1/ QUICK THREAD: In light of Prigzonin's slow advance, and in light of key MOD officials like Shoigu and Gerasimov so far missing in action, a brief historical note: coups and revolutions often succeed or fail precisely because of the role the military takes in such events.
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2/3 "...lead to the fact that artificial intelligence will be the main tool of warfare, since already 50% of all "strike activity" is formed by drones. Hundreds of AI systems are currently being developed at the same time, and they are being tested in experimental modes."
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The rise of Turkey as one of the global UAV manufacturing leaders is certainly one of the most interesting emerging technology stories of the post-Cold War world.
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7/ We urgently need to pay attention to this. There is nothing to protect our fixed-wing UAVs in the sky, so the only answer is to destroy the enemy’s fixed-wing drones in exactly the same way. Whoever is the first to clear the sky of the enemy's ISR UAVs will get amazing
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5/ "Their use does not require multi-ton vehicles, which in modern conditions cannot be hidden. Two people on motorcycles is already an air defense weapon that is extremely difficult to detect. But the most dangerous thing here is that the Ukrainians..."
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3/3 "In six months, pilots will no longer be needed. The drone itself, depending on its development, will decide what to attack, how to distinguish "Zhiguli" from a tank and definitely not confuse a Ukrainian with an enemy." Starts at 32:46
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Another eyewitness video of a Wagner convoy reportedly breaking through then "truck obstacles" on the way to Moscow - the types of obstacles I posted above that are supposed to protect Moscow highways.
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Ukraine's Mykhailo Fedorov: "We are sending more than 270 Ukrainian-made "Vampire" strike drones from the Army of Drones to the front. They can carry up to 15 kg of payload. The military will use them to destroy vehicles, tanks and enemy defense structures, fortifications or
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1/ THREAD on the Russian perceptions about FPV use and availability, and on their own capacity to meet the demand, translated from several Russian Telegram channels: "The ratio of UAVs at the front is now approximately 1 to 6 - not in our favor...."
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1/ QUICK THREAD: Mikhail Fedorov, Ukraine's Ministry of Digital Development: Kyiv is preparing for a “war of drones”: "Ukraine is now engaged in the purchase of drones that can intercept other drones. This is the next stage in the development of ideas."
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4/ “The doctrine of war is changing,” said Pvt. Yevhen Popov, the commander of a national police unit fighting in one of the bulges. “Drones that cost hundreds of dollars are destroying machines costing millions of dollars,” he added."
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1/ This morning strike by a Ukrainian USV on the Russian Navy's "Olenegorsky Gornyak", Ropuchya-class landing ship in Novorossiysk port. The USV was apparently packed with 450kg of explosives.
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Ukraine's Sergyi Flesh: "Mark my words - in six months to a year, both sides will begin to produce enough FPVs to target every single soldier - all will be detected and destroyed day and night in a zone of up to 5-8 km. All infantry will retreat underground, and all surface
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1/ THREAD: Russia's Starshe Eddy Telegram channel discussed a recent battle near Antonovsky bridge involving drones and FPVs that was considered "a prototype of the war that we will see in the near future." Main points translated below.
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6/ The points about Western militaries not having the equivalents of cheap, commercial-type drones for tactical ISR is a major topic of deliberation in the US military today.
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2/ "Operators also switch between frequencies mid-flight or fly close to the ground to evade Russian units trying to track them. Unlike some military drones, Ukraine’s simpler versions fly without GPS navigation, which is both an advantage and a disadvantage; without it, pilots
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1/ Quick thread on reflections from Russian Telegrams on the impact of FPV drones on unit movement: "The infantry movements occur in small groups, and not even 5-15 people, but in twos or threes. Both we and the Ukrainians are watching each other’s every move. Therefore,
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1/ QUICK TAKE on the Russian perceptions of a Ukrainian advantage in FPV drones: “An analysis of battlefield shows that the enemy is many times superior to the Russian military in the FPV use. At the same time, the Ukrainians have an increased FPV range - up to 30 km - due to the
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3/ "Ukraine’s teams said that they preferred flying multiple missions with cheap drones, knowing they would lose some, rather than spending more for small advantages on any particular type of drone. We use cheaper wings."
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1/ THREAD: Yesterday, Russian Defense Minister Belousov's comments about how many drones are at the front caused a slight confusion. Russian state media outlet RIA first reported him saying that "domestic FPV drone production has grown to 4000 per day." But then...
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Updated map of Turkish Bayraktar drone acquisition (red) and interest (green)
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This is a significant development.
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Interesting video of a Ukrainian small UGV platform for demining ops - it stretches out the UZP-77 hose-like, mine-clearing line charge assembly that explodes and detonates mines along its path. Obviously, this was not a live fire test - Ukrainians wanted to see if UZP can be
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Russian state media reports on the "Zont" (Umbrella) EW system for vehicles and equipment on the move that can reportedly jam FPV drones within a radius of up to 500 meters. Earlier, some Russian volunteers criticized such promotion by defense companies by arguing that no system
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8/ "A day earlier, Hacker had flown his plastic-foam plane and its GoPro camera directly over two of Russia’s most sophisticated electronic warfare systems, a Moskva-1 and Borisoglebsky. Each could scan for radio signals and triangulate their source, but both missed Hacker’s
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9/ Some background to point 3/ about drones reaching 500km/h - that may have been an exaggeration by the Russian commentator - the fastest FPV-type drone reached around 400km/h and it was not weighted down by a munition/mortar.
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1/ QUICK THREAD on Russia's ARMY-2022 defense expo and forum. Last week featured both new and familiar developments and systems. Few main points below:
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Another DIY small UGV project in Ukraine - armed with a machine gun or an RPG. Note a companion quadcopter for ISR.
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Ukrainian UAV films a Russian rocket strike. There appear to be no Russian EW or air defense systems covering the area, allowing the Ukrainian drone to record the attack. H/T
@faineg
🇷🇺 forces filmed firing in heavily populated area. Town of Trostyanets (north),
#Ukrainian
UAV films rocket system firing next to railway station. 🇷🇺 army clearly poorly trained, as 3 self-propelled artillery & many vehicles incl fuel truck all around.
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Turkish piloted and unmanned aviation (current and planned) in one graphic
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1/ A few quick thoughts about Prigozhin's seemingly momentous "March of 10,000" that was stopped today. These are very preliminary thoughts, and much can change in the coming days as this situation settles down one way or another.
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5/ "They have different drone types, but this is purely brigade level. This shows that in addition to the war with the aborigines in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, the Americans have not participated in a serious war for a long time. Their army does not have an analogue of the Chinese
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11/ A key elements in the article is a low cost UAV solution that allows for immediate adjustments in tactics and technologies. But as the authors state, the adversary also can adapt just as quickly. The key is to stay one step ahead.
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1/ This video shows one of the reason why so many militaries - Russia included - are developing unmanned/autonomous combat vehicles. In the video, one tank is upfront conduct a recon....
Ukrainian UAV footage showing a Russian tank being struck with a munition, possibly an anti-tank mine.
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1/ Today, Dmitry Rogozin published a video of Marker UGV tests with “Kornet” anti-tank missiles somewhere in Donbas. A few notes on this test
1/3 Dmitry Rogozin via his Telegram channel: "Today, we started our training of Marker UGV operators, we begun testing equipment to hit Abrams and Leopard tanks, and we are discussing the front-line training grounds and the place of mass production of combat robots."
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1/3 Russian Telegram-based sources are concerned about improvements in Ukraine's UAV tactics: "As soon as they notice a worthy Rus target from a Fury-type drone, they try to hit it with Excalibur or Himars rockets. Himars have become an integral part of counter-battery combat."
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1/ QUICK THREAD: How does Ukrainian military use small quadcopters to constantly keep pressure on the Russian forces? This pro-Kremlin Telegram post offered a few details - main points below:
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9/ "The solution his teams have created — using drones with few metal parts and frequently shifting radio frequencies — will most likely work for a few weeks, before Russian forces make their own adjustments and find a way to jam the signals or shoot down the Ukrainian drones.
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5/ "Gremlin called out way points, altitudes and headings. Hacker flew hugging the landscape, below Russian jamming signals and above the sweeping, dense minefields that have thwarted the advance of Ukraine’s infantry and armored vehicles, gravely wounding soldiers each day."
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1/ THREAD on the impact of small quadcopters in the Ukraine war over the past year - based on my earlier analysis of how 2022 went and what I thought would be relevant in 2023. First, my thread from December 31, 2022:
1/ A THREAD: As 2022 draws to a close, a few words about how technology helped shape and influence the war in Ukraine – specifically, the impact of commercial quadcopters.
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4/ More from the Ukrainian soldier: "For a week, we were taught to read maps, take the azimuth, transfer the azimuth from the compass to the map and vice versa. When we told them that we use electronic cards on tablets and phones, they did not take us seriously."
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1/ QUICK THREAD about Russian military comms in Ukraine: A DNR commander noted in a recent interview that his forces, along with other Russian troops, are using a new type of communication that does not allow for subscriber identification.
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3/ (For the record, "Kropyva" is a Ukrainian proprietary intelligence mapping software developed for planning, calculations, and orientation that is used by hundreds of units throughout Ukraine).
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1/ One of the more relevant relationships to watch in the coming months will be between the incoming Defense Minister Belousov, the re-appointed Prime Minister Mishustin, Deputy Prime Minister Chernyshenko and the Minister of Digital Development Shadaev. All four are...
Andrei Belousov, Russia’s incoming Defense Minister, is a big promoter of domestic drone and UAV development, along with supporting domestic high-tech research and development.
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7/ "Through the summer, Lieutenant Arutiunian’s pilots lost a dozen drones that were blinded by jamming or shot down. Improvising on the fly, they tweaked their equipment, flight paths and frequencies with each loss."
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1/ QUICK TAKE on a Russian deliberation about the UAV/drone evolution influenced by the war in Ukraine - main points below: "The (Ukraine war) became a triumph for small UAVs. Previously, everyone was afraid of Bayraktars, but now everyone hides when FPV drones appear."
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1/ QUICK THREAD: Russia's MK newspaper published a critique of ongoing mobilization and military preparation for the war. Main points below:
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2/ "But after "Kropyva", I don't want to go back to paper docs at all. The same for quadcopters - the concept of DJI Mavics and the use of civilian copters is simply not even in their plans. Of course, they study our war, but they are still surprised that we use it (quadcopters)
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1/ Russian MOD announced that most domestically produced drones do not meet technical requirements - mostly due to the “components base issues” that force “simplification” of drone models.
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1/ Tomorrow, August 15, is the opening day of ARMY-2022, Russia's biggest international military expo running for 8 years in a row. The forum lasts 6 days, with international military exercises/drills taking place around the world as part of this event. Few comments below:
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6/ "Even as they hunt the Russians, though, they are being pursued by enemy drone teams themselves. Russian drones regularly overfly the positions of drone reconnaissance units, a few hundred yards up, and pilots are a priority target."
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1/ Russian sources and eyewitnesses are reporting a massive Ukrainian drone attack in Moscow, Tula, Kaluga, Smolensk and Bryansk regions. According to the Rybar Telegram channel...
Large Ukrainian drone attack on Russia this morning, with explosions and intercepts reported in Moscow, Bryansk, Tula, and Kaluga.
Seen here, a Ukrainian one-way attack drone flying over the Russian city of Tula this morning,
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2/...there is a significant gap between Russia's own understanding of military autonomy and the actual use of such systems. While Russia claims to run multiple UUV/USV programs, only a few such systems are actually fielded, and mostly in ISR capacity. Therefore...
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10/ Great reporting by
@AndrewKramerNYT
and
@lynseyaddario
on how quickly Ukrainian drone forces can adjust their tactics and procedures to deal with a constantly evolving Russian CUAS and drone threat.
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The Uran-9 combat UGV made an appearance on May 9 parade, as it did in years past. For some reason, Russia chose not to showcase Uran-6 demining UGV that was already deployed in combat regions. Nor did the Russian MOD showcase any of its UAVs.
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1/ QUICK TAKE - The Russian military is systematizing the experience of using UAVs in combat. DefMin Belousov recently visited "Rubicon" - MOD's first Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies formed in August 2024 in one of the functioning UAV combat units.
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Russian military blogger Kirill Fedorov on the idea of blocking Telegram in Russia: "Literally yesterday we were guiding Iskanders via Telegram, our artillery is guided via Telegram, aviation. This is reality! We are fighting on the Internet! We have drone broadcasts via
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1/ INTERESTING: Russia's Kaspersky Labs indicated that China's TA428 government-connected hacking group is behind numerous attacks on Russia's defense-industrial enterprises.
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1/ QUICK THREAD about Russian commentary on using Shahed-136/Geran-2 loitering munitions in Ukraine. First, Geran-2 is preferable to launching cruise missiles since the drone launch is very difficult to observe and detect, given that it can be launched off a truck.
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1/ BREAKING: Ukraine is about to receive a number of THEMIS UGV platforms for logistics - evacuation of the wounded and delivery of ammunition. First UGV is apparently already in Ukraine.
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Results of Russia's new anti-drone police are trickling in: In Moscow, a woman called police on a man she thought was "assembling a large drone" - turns out the man was assembling a child's car seat next to his vehicle.
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1/ QUICK THREAD on Ukraine war (drones, combat, mobilization) from the director of "Veche", one of Russia's non-government orgs that provide assistance to the soldiers. Main points below:
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The Russian operator says “Давай по нему отработаем”(Let’s test on this…), which to me sounds like they wanted to test their systems on this unfortunate tractor.
Russians have released a video in which they claim a Russian Ka-52 helicopter strikes on “Leopard 2 tanks.” Only for some reason this “Leopard” looks more like a tractor. For example, John Deere 4830.
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1/3 Russia's Kalashnikov released a video of Lancet drone production facilities, signaling that so many are made that the drone's chief designer Aleksandr Zaharov "has to use a Segway to go around his enterprise." Additionally...
Russia's Kalashnikov (part of Rostec) is pledging to increase the production of reconnaissance UAVs. Kalashnikov manufactures ZALA drone series, which is key to Russian military's recon and Lancet loitering munition's guidance to targets.
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1/2 Russian Telegram on the Ukrainian drone tactics: "Now they are attacking in groups of several drones, where some act as a distraction for our counter-drone guns, while others try to break through and strike. Not to say that this leads to increased losses, but it adds to the
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Responding to Shahed/Geran: Oleg Boldyrev, manager of "Ukroboronprom", said that by the end of this year, Ukraine will launch a new 200kg drone capable of flying "thousands of kilometers" and carry up to 75 kilograms of combat payload.
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3/ "That is, the Ukr. air defense is given no choice - if thye will not shoot down Rus. glide bombs, important targets are hit on the front line. If they try to shoot them down, their air defense systems can be destroyed."
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