Ryan Lundquist
@SacAppraiser
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Appraiser, housing market analyst, graph maker, blogger, speaker, woodworker wannabe, and family man.
Sacramento, CA
Joined October 2009
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Pretty cool to be in the New York Times today. It’s a piece about tech companies, and I shared some thoughts about tech home flipping.
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@SheriffJCooper
It would actually be nice to see videos of customers filming someone getting arrested in the store. Can’t remember the last time I’ve seen that on social media. It’s usually someone running out the store with merchandise and no consequences.
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Talked to an owner with a 2.3% mortgage rate. He says he’s never moving. I can’t tell you how many times I hear that today. Of course, plans change, and so do markets. But his mortgage is $400 below market rent and about $1400 below the replacement mortgage at today’s value.
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Goodbye. Zillow is officially gone from the Sacramento housing market. After announcing failure as an iBuyer in late 2021, they have officially sold their last unit. Ironically, they sold this property to Opendoor.
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BREAKING NEWS. Person who was wrong about mortgage rate predictions all year now has a new prediction.
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Okay, here's a map I made to show all 9,000+ units owned by Invitation Homes in California. It's mind-blowing to look at this on the neighborhood level. Check out the map on my weekly post:
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The housing market is like a Hot Pocket taken out of the microwave too early. It’s somewhat hot, but it’s sort of frozen too.
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The California Dream for All program is scheduled to start tomorrow. This will give first-time buyers up to 20% for a down payment. It's a shared appreciation loan. I'm anxious to see how many buyers jump at this, and how this affects certain price ranges.
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The Zestimate was $170,000 lower than the list price, but within a day of the property listing for sale the Zestimate increased by $170,003 to match the list price (technically $3 higher). Seems legit.
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7% mortgage rates again. I recall in January when some were saying things like, "Bro, we'll be at 5% in May." This is a good reminder that predicting rates is very difficult to get right.
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I visited the Boise area this weekend to see some family members. So many massive garages in new residential developments.
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@texasrunnerDFW
Bob, I want you to go to a mortgage calculator with 7% rates at today’s values and ask yourself one question. Can you afford the house you currently own?
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I talked to someone selling & buying today. Selling a home at 2.5% rate, and buying at 6.5%. The new monthly mortgage will go up by $1,100. The new home is 10% higher in value, but the huge difference is it's on acreage. A lifestyle change is the motivating factor here.
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Opendoor bought Zillow's last home in Sacramento at a discount, and it's finally listed 90 days later.
History of property:
- Zillow bought $700K (11/2021)
- On market 119 days (cancelled $624,900)
- Opendoor bought $354,500
- Modest improvements made
- Now listed at $632,000
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Some thoughts on 8% rates:
1) Higher rates will take more demand out of the market.
2) We've seen an increase in active listings lately due to fewer pendings. This could start to increase more. Time will tell.
3) We'll have to see if 8% is a psychological barrier for buyers
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A California legislator's office reached out to talk to me about my blog post this week. Not sure I've had that happen before. Haha. Look, I think it's great to bring attention to corporate ownership of residential real estate, and I'm glad that's happening. But I also told them
Okay, here's a map I made to show all 9,000+ units owned by Invitation Homes in California. It's mind-blowing to look at this on the neighborhood level. Check out the map on my weekly post:
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My Halloween costume. Meet Low-Rate Larry. Whenever 8% rates come up, Larry is quick to tell you about his 2.5% rate. He does this in person and on Facebook posts in particular. Larry is not shy about humble brags and flexing how much of a real estate genius he is.
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Pretty cool to be quoted in The New York Times today. “The Market Tectonics of California Real Estate”
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"If I can't sell it for what I want, I'll rent it." A seller told me that about her owner-occupied house. I don't have stats on this, but I've been hearing this more lately from sellers and even property managers who are seeing an influx of cancelled listings become rentals.
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I'm rebranding a desk I made for my youngest a while back. Very pleased he has come around.
#kings
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I’m not a fan of the slogan of dating the rate and marrying the house. I get it, but being comfortable with the payment today is the key. Promising a lower rate or opportunity to refinance in the future isn’t guaranteed. Buy or don’t buy, but be confident in your decision.
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This week I gave a talk to a room with 200+ people, and I asked for a show of hands who has a mortgage rate below 3%. Then I asked the same people if they have incentive to sell this year. Literally one hand went up. Welcome to the housing market.
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I’m not a fan of photos being removed from MLS after a property sells. Seems like this is a growing trend. As an appraiser, I really want to see photos when considering comps. I’d be okay if this didn’t become more common. Thanks for coming to my TEDx talk.
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After nearly two decades, my wife is closing her taxi business. It was a good run, but clients just weren’t tipping, and they often needed service outside of normal business hours. On a serious note, congrats to my youngest son on finally getting his license. Mom taxi is retired.
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I asked some real estate agents how they would describe the market. A few responses:
- slow
- weird
- hot under median price
- tight
- either a bidding war or crickets
- steady
- slower for dated homes
- seems like a lot of people are holding
What would you add?
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I drove through some neighborhoods in the Boise area. Lots of garage space.
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If you work in real estate, I recommend planning for low supply and low volume ahead. If something alters the trend, great. I like the idea of being realistic about the market that actually exists, and being surprised if something else occurs. Know what I’m saying?
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I talked to a real estate agent today who is working really hard to make things work. Young guy. Single dad. "If I don't produce, we don't eat." That hit me. Being self-employed is not for the faint of heart.
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Today marks 999 days without alcohol. I gave it up for health reasons. It’s been good. No regrets.
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If you ever wondered if there was a connection between the housing market and the Sacramento Kings…
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A Realtor told me this week it's taking buyers losing an offer to realize it's not a real estate buffet where they can take whatever they want. Buyers, you do have more power, but there is still competition - especially for lower-priced units and homes that check all the boxes.
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I want screenshots. If true, I suspect there is a story. The market has likely declined, but this is extremely sharp. And if true, we have to be careful not to take one extreme example and judge the entire market. One tree doesn’t always represent the forest.
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UPDATE: Opendoor bought Zillow's last home in Sacramento and it's now pending
- Zillow bought $700K (11/2021)
- On market 119 days (cancelled $624,900)
- Opendoor bought $354,500 (discounted price)
- Some improvements made
- Listed 90 days later $632,000
- Pending after 22 days
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STAT: Zillow now only owns 15 homes in the Sacramento region and 9 of them are listed for sale. Zillow announced failure from their home flipping venture almost eight months ago, and it's taken time to sell their holdings. In November they owned over 500 units in Sacramento.
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Ten years ago today I started a blog. Little did I know it would change my business and life in so many ways. It's been an amazing journey. Thank you for your support and all the conversations through the years.
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I talked to a real estate agent who told me the seller would not accept an offer that was less than 1% below the asking price. The buyer walked, and this property is now sitting. Sellers, there is a limited pool of buyers today, so be realistic and not too picky.
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I’m going to be taking some time off of work. I have some intestinal issues and my insides are on fire. I welcome your prayers. I won’t be working for the forseeable future. No blog posts. No market stats. No videos. Hopefully a short period of time. Thanks everyone.
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I had to go to the ER today. This isn’t exactly the place I’d like to be right now for lots of reasons, but I was so dehydrated. They are going to keep me overnight. Thank you for your prayers everyone.
#ERselfie
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The narrative about FICO scores has blown up this week. Many articles have outright misinformation. I don't know the person who wrote this, but it's thorough. This topic is tough because it's technical. Gotta be careful of sensational headlines though.
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An update. I am hanging in here. Mostly on the couch. I’m not woodworking. I’m not on vacation. Just trying to heal. Feeling depleted. I lost 12 pounds this week. Nice to lose that Covid gain I guess... Feeling so grateful for my wife. I couldn’t do this without her.
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Three years ago today I gave up alcohol for health reasons. It’s been a good ride, and I think I’ll add another year. It’s never weird if you drink around me either. Here’s to another year ahead.
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Some thoughts. The housing doom perspective has been so consuming in recent years on social media, especially on Twitter. It's honestly hard to interact with sometimes because of such incessant negativity. Ultimately, I wonder if anything constructive comes from an intoxication
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Opendoor owns 354 properties in the Sacramento area per Tax Records and it's impressive that 305 of these units are on the market. Though only 17% of the units have a pending contract, which means 83% of their product is sitting instead of selling.
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Big real estate headline 42 years ago published in
@sacbee_news
. Found in
@saclib
archives.
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A sign of the times: "Home insurance will be cancelled as of August 1st due to condition of home." A client just got this message from the insurance company. This property needs cosmetic attention throughout (built in 2003).
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An ad from a builder. This is how they are moving inventory. Concessions to buyers have been a tractor beam.
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Goodbye. Redfin is officially gone as an iBuyer in Sacramento. They announced an exit a few months ago, and their last property has now sold. They did well on this one. Acquired in December 2022 for $480K & sold in April 2023 for $630K (looks like paint and flooring was added).
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Concessions are making all the difference. A buyer in Roseville is getting a rate buydown at 4.99% and a $20K credit. This is exactly why we are seeing builders with glowing sales numbers lately.
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Some newer homes in the Lakeview Oaks area of Folsom. Thoughts?
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I live in California, and people sometimes jump in the comments on my socials to tell me what they think of the state. Some quick thoughts about that.
Two things about communication:
1) If we're not talking politics, don't make it political. That's like dropping a toxic bomb
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If rates go back down...
1) Rates going down can help bring back some demand in the housing market.
2) We're missing about 40% of buyers locally, so modest rate declines aren't an instant reset button. Not trying to be a killjoy, but we're still struggling with affordability.
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Love seeing this. This is the lowest I’ve seen in a couple of years since the price of one 2x4 spiked to close to eight dollars. Spotted at my local Lowe’s this morning.
This is great to see. Spotted at my local Lowe’s last night. The price of a 2x4 is finally below $4. It really should be $3 or a little less, but it was closer to $8 dollars at the height during the past two years.
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Someone told me I would be working at Walmart as a greeter later this year after the housing market crashes. Well, all I have to say is I don’t care what the manager says. I am definitely tackling anyone who tries to steal something. You won’t get past me. 
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Before computers, local MLS sales used to be found in books like this. Tonight I’m pulling comps and researching since a client needs a value for a date in 1993. In those days there was no, “But Zillow says my house is worth…”
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Hi friends. Today begins day four of hospitalization. I am in good hands. The nurses have been phenomenal. It has been tough though. Some days have been better than others. Last night was pretty brutal. I appreciate your love and support so much. It means the world to me.
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I don’t have a pool, so I made this today from scrap in the garage. Ha ha. I just need to buy some sort of filter on Amazon now. My family rolls their eyes, and maybe rightly so. But the first plunge was glorious on a day that’s going to be 110°.
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Opendoor is struggling in Sacramento. You may have noticed many of their current listings are priced below what they paid. Well, today I have some fresh stats to unpack what is happening. This isn't meant to throw shade, but only unpack trends.
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Opendoor had massive losses this past quarter. Here’s a comparison to when Zillow was an iBuyer. Image from Mike Delprete.
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The housing market is like a hot pocket taken out of the microwave a tad too early. Some portions are blazing hot while others are only warm. What I mean is not all neighborhoods and price ranges have the same temperature.
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As of today I've been an appraiser for 20 years. It's been a great ride, and I look forward to continuing to grow. On a related note, I'm not a fan of people flexing how long they've been around. I suspect this happens in all professions. So people will say something like, "In my
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Heading to a 90s birthday party tonight as a 90s skater.
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This is pretty cool. I am very honored to have been listed in
@SacMag
as 100 notable business leaders in 2021.
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STAT: 72% of Opendoor's active listings in the Sacramento region are listed below what they paid for the property. This doesn't account for future price drops needed, real estate fees, repairs, or holding costs. The biggest difference is a property $280,500 below acquisition.
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My youngest is now 18. Today, we're going to open his own IRA. Giving him a little money to get started, and excited that he's been preparing for this and understands the importance. I wish my parents would have done this for me. Glad to get to do it for him. Gen X to Gen Z.
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Kids are literally being murdered at school. And the adults in the room are doing nothing but arguing over the right to bear arms. What about the right of kids not to be murdered? What the fuck is it going to take to see change? Clearly murdered children isn't enough.
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"Zillow can't smell if 20 cats live there." Two years ago today. Haha.
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Sellers, if you are only getting offers below the list price, and the property has been on the market for an adequate amount of time, the market is speaking to you. My advice? Listen to what buyers are willing to pay, and don't get stuck on the price you hope to get.
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Sellers, my biggest message right now is to respect the pendings. Rates are flirting with 8%, and this makes it more difficult for buyers to afford a home today. Demand is still here, but higher rates will reduce the buyer pool even more. It's easy to get stuck on sales from the
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@GRomePow
There is a difference between math and the market. I think price stats across the country show your math isn't how it works in the real world. Would it be healthy for prices to come down though? Of course.
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The housing market feels like a relationship that's been struggling, but it just had a good vacation. There is some excitement at the moment, but there are still deep underlying problems.
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A seller wants to price according to a refinance appraisal from the spring. I strongly discourage the idea. Look to current comps. The median price has dropped 10% since then in Sacramento. Don’t live in the past or let a prior appraisal be a shiny object.
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Talked to a local buyer purchasing new construction. He got a $20K price discount, rate buydown, and 2% toward closing costs (had to use builder's lender). He went from a 2.85% rate on his current home to a 5% rate. Downsizing into a single-story was the goal.
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@ErrolWebber
I get it. But people are allowed to believe different things in this country and even change their minds. Most of all, she's an American, and let's root for her to get home regardless of her politics, lifestyle, or whatever.
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Taking some time off of work. My insides are on fire. I’ve shared before that I have ulcerative colitis. I haven’t had a flare for four years. Well, having one now. Anyway, not asking for anything. Just laying low for however long it takes to heal. Much love.
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Big news from FHA. It sounds like the seller paying for the buyer's agent commission won’t count within the allotted 6% seller concession allowed under FHA. Yet, it also sounds like part of this comes down to what normal looks like in the market. From FHA: "If sellers continue to
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In real estate, we often obsess over prices, and people online talk as if it's so easy to time a market. But you know what? Lifestyle doesn't always collide so perfectly with market conditions. Buy or don't buy. I don't care. I'm just saying lifestyle is not something to ignore.
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I gave up alcohol two years ago today for health reasons, and it’s been a good experience. I’m going to add another year now, and I invite anyone to join. No pressure. And it’s fine if you drink around me. Happy 4th!
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A client needs a valuation for a date in the early 1990s for a legal situation, so I’m using the old MLS books from that time to find comps. Here’s what MLS used to look like. These books are organized by Thomas Guide number.
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Just got an email from Airbnb cancelling our rental in New York City next year. We'll be getting a refund, and now we'll find a hotel. If you didn't know, short-term rental regulations changed there, so it's going to be difficult for most units to rent for less than 30 days.
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A seller had an offer for $670K in early summer, but the deal fell apart. Now there is an offer for $610K. This is not to say every property in Sacramento has gone down by this much, but it highlights a sharp price change and the need for sellers to adjust expectations.
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The housing market had a sharp downward change in sales volume two years ago when mortgage rates spiked. Ever since, volume has been subdued. Locally, we're still missing 33% of the pre-2020 normal. If you work in real estate, and you're still standing, congratulations.
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I went to the American River earlier today. It was just what I needed. There’s something about water that refreshes the soul. Also, I got in a 0.68 mile walk. Stoked to be progressing. Small steps. Thanks for putting up with my health posts lately too.
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Speaking of this last unit, Zillow bought it for $700K in Nov 2021, and withdrew the listing at $625K last month. Then they sold it to Opendoor for $354K. I haven't pulled comps, but it's not hard to imagine a fat discount that'll look good on paper for Opendoor in the future.
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