Moscow is starting to feel the pressure. What makes me say this? 1. RU seems stuck militarily. A big chunk of the RU force is already involved in the war. There are problems with reinforcements, heavy casualties and equipment losses. #RussiainvadesUkraine 1/8

The goals of the „spec-op“ have not been reached so far. RU seems hesitant to storm Kyiv or Odesa – street fighting in 2 big cities would be a major risk under the circumstances. The idea to occupy the whole or large parts of the country seems even more unrealistic. 2/8

2. Unprecedented sanctions imposed with unprecedented pace start to bite. So does international isolation, even if Beijing signals continuing support. Western weapons supplies to UA not to be underestimated in this context either. 3/8

RU society is in a stupor, but polls and other signs suggest the mood is not enthusiastic. People are shocked, shaken up, disorientated. Already now the only tool the state has to deal with resistance is relentless repression. This is driving the unhappy 4/8

out of the country and into inner emigration, which stabilises the system in the short term. But it might change, and perhaps quicker than they or us expect. A lot also depends on the elite - difficult to get a clear picture of the mood there. 5/8

Yesterday we saw very slight movements on the RU side, openness to talks, tiny adjustments in Moscow’s negotiating position. All of a sudden „denazification“ vanished from Peskov’s speaking points. So a deal with Zelensky’s UA is becoming thinkable? 6/8

Of course, all other maximalist demands remain on the table: demilitarisation, neutrality, recognition of Crimea annexation and DLNR. And Moscow keeps playing an atrocious game with UA civilisan population. They are trying to find some kind of exit, but they may still 7/8

@SabFis3 Kharkiv is key. Who holds Kharkiv wins the war.

@SabFis3 Russians overwhelmingly support the war thanks to government propaganda and while they’re moving slowly, they’re moving.

@SabFis3

@SabFis3 Chinese general, military strategist, writer and philosopher Sun Tzu wrote that when an army surrounds its enemies it is prudent to “leave an opening”. This strategy is often referred to as building a “Golden Bridge” as it allows one's enemy to avoid certain defeat through escape

@SabFis3 Thank you Sabine. I agree that we need to maintain pressure. I don't think RU will risk attack on Kyiv - Putin is in shock at the response and troops are demoralised. But we will see.

@SabFis3 @threadreaderapp please unroll, thanks.

@SabFis3 They can't take Kyiv.

@SabFis3 Danke für die Einordnung!

@SabFis3 Meanwhile, thousands of lives will be lost, millions of lives unended, and dozens of cities destroyed. For what? Putin's legacy.

@SabFis3 ...the worst would be the use of a tactical nuclear weapon, as a demonstration or otherwise. If things go bad enough chances increase for this hopefully unlikely scenario.

@SabFis3 RU cannot end the war until UA either accepts harsh terms, or RU has completely dominated UA on the battlefield, following which RU may offer more reasonable terms Why? Must uphold the impression (illusion?) that RU is a superpower of the first order

@SabFis3 Odesa is risky. If they play the usual bloodbath thing there that would blow back. Mutiny seems to be the reason the landing has not happened yet. They risk losing a big battle there. In a way Kyiv the same. They're stuck, waiting something to happen to find a way somewhere

@SabFis3 Putin-regime has NOTHING to demand - they have to PAY for every inch and human they have destroyed and murdered in Ukraine!

@SabFis3 Russia has already lost the war. Even if it occupies the Ukraine.

@SabFis3 Odesa is pretty safe for now. Even getting to it will entail a push they seem to be unable to make.

@SabFis3 As McDonald‘s restaurants are to withdraw from Russia - what else is there about to happen…🤔🤷‍♀️

@SabFis3 Regarding #China , there's this.

@SabFis3 You are naive if you don’t think Kyiv falling is only a question of time