@SHEPMJS
@shepmjs
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For the first time since 1860 we are fighting both a political and a spiritual war. We must not lose.
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Amazing. The Presidential Medal of Freedom award once Trump is back in office
On the way to Erie, Pennsylvania.
Yes, we have Trump 2024 signs & eclipse glasses.
This is the most prepared we’ve ever been for a voter registration event.
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MSM in death spiral
Bloodbath at CBS News ... CBS News laid off Catherine Herridge along with 800 employees at CBS parent Paramount Global
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The Boston Globe report further commented about the "big turnout helping the two local GOP specials"
And again, when Trump is on the ballot it helps the down ballot as only he can get the turnout from unlikely voters
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Baris: “Our polling shows that If Trump is not on the ballot Indiana is gone North Carolina gone, Florida and Missouri are right on the line”
Basically future elections would be some combination of 2008/12 & GOP a presidential minority part in near perpetuity given demographics
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Haley 2.2% in Michigan's "only GOP voters can vote" caucus
You get the picture
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@Redistrict
Here's the background on this historic win. Demographics are destiny except not in the way the Dems thought;
"Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) is warning his party of a "self-inflicted tragedy" in the making among Latino voters.
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Yes I do like this;
Larry Sabato on MSNBC just now:
"The Democrats are in trouble."
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17%-there you go:
Trump's support has improved among voters of color. .
Most Black voters feel Trump is trying to earn Black support. Black voters make up nearly a third of Georgia's electorate, and 17% of them today are picking Trump over Mr. Biden
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Democracy Institute Patrick Basham's final poll. Predicted Trump win on 2016. Like Big Data Poll not carried by RCP/538
"GOP 51% to 46% +5 ahead of Dems in House minimum gain of 33 to 38 seats “probably gain” of 39 to 51 seats. Senate 53/54"
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Black intention to vote for Trump:
Cygnal Feb 2-8 21%
Big Data Feb 2-14 21.7%
These are near exactly the same as my aggregate of 28 such subset of polls
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Big Data Poll Update; Trump Versus Biden
Minnesota: Trump +1.3
Ohio: Trump +13.6
Michigan: Trump +4.7
Pennsylvania: Trump +3.5
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Thus dies the "Haley performs better against Biden than Trump" meme
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UPDATE:
HarrisX Trump 53%
Harvard Trump 53%
Dem Corps Trump 51%
Reuters Trump 51%
Marquette Trump 52%
CBS Trump 51%
Fox Trump 50%
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She would never win no matter who the Dem candidate was. It's also unconstitutional.
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Trump’s newly-established super PAC, known as MAGA Inc, has begun to book ad time in several key Senate races
AZ-Sen: $1 million (in cable ads)
GA-Sen: $750,000
NV-Sen: $127,000
OH-Sen: $1.34 million
PA-Sen: $829,000
The group’s Ohio commercial is online
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So very bad;
"Fox’s Peter Doocy asked Psaki about Biden’s campaign claim that if he were in office, Putin’s days of tyranny and intimidating Eastern Europe would be over."
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Blacks Trump 16% Hispanics 38%
🇺🇲 2024 National GE:
@EchelonInsights
🟥 Trump 49% (+2)
🟦 Biden 47%
.
🟥 Trump 43% (+3)
🟦 Biden 40%
🟨 RFK Jr 10%
🟩 Stein 2%
🟨 West 1%
—
Generic Ballot
🟦 DEM 49% (+3)
🟥 GOP 46%
538:
#22
(2.7/3.0) | 3/18-21 | 1,006 LV
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Breaking: DeSantis "Thigh food" scandal now in the MSM. There is no way back for him from this now
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Can't add a jot to that
The Republican Party is the dumbest party in the western world, right now. It may be the dumbest party in the history of self-governing societies.
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Since Trump commenced to solidify his lead in the head to head aggregate on 9/25 Biden has never been above 43.7%. Trump has led in every aggregate since 9/13, five straight months
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Deleted all links to 538, will never reference or see it again. The air seems somehow purer.
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My infallible predictions for 2022
1. Biden will not be president at end of the year.
2. President Harris will nominate Buttigieg for VP. He will struggle to get confirmed by House & Senate.
3. GOP will win both the House and Senate
4.Trump will announce he is running in 2024
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Today is Trump's best day across the board ever:
Trump leads in Pennsylvania aggregate despite the January Susquehanna Biden +8 poll and all seven Battleground states
With PA assigned to Trump he leads in No Toss Up States 293 to 245
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Imagine him taking time out to acknowledge my simple Tweet-there's really nothing that can be added
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Final delegate count from the three elections today
Trump 125
Haley 0
But she did participate
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Trump +1 poll (consensus atpit) Blacks 27% at the high end: (but each time I say that a poll comes out higher than previous). We can be confident Trump is higher than his +12 in 2020
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I still can't get over the assassination attempt, the miracle of the turned head miss, Trump's astounding presence of mind, and utter incompetence of the SS and their DEI hires. A lot to digest, a historic moment on many levels
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Donated to the Trump campaign, only way I can fight back practically so. I am confident I won't be the only one.
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The GOP should thank their lucky stars for Trump. Without him on the ballot they are cooked.
Again Whigs>>>>>>>>>>>> current GOP
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This is serious. If the bill passes it not only is a major block to Biden's election but frees up GOP cash and could get rid of Bacon in the primary
🚨BREAKING: Nebraska's unicameral legislature now has a filibuster proof Republican majority as Sen. Mike McDonnell switches parties from Dem to Rep.
This has massive implications for passing LB764, which would switch Nebraska to a winner-take-all electoral college state and
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Didn't become billionaires via political acuity:
Wall Street’s top GOP donors are slowly realizing that former President Donald Trump is all-but-certain to clinch the presidential nomination.
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My new article at American Thinker expanding on the shift to Trump in Favorabilty
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Remarkable figures and show the sometimes painfully transitory nature of political stardom;
RCP Betting Odds Aggregate President:
1/3/23
DeSantis 35% Biden 28% Trump 14%
11/25/23
DeSantis 3% Biden 28% Trump 36%
Biden was at 41% in May
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@yesh222
Republican Nick Howland will win the race for the City Council At-Large Group 3 seat.
@JosephFordCotto
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@yesh222
@JosephFordCotto
Indies again. If, as all polls show indies are deserting Dems in droves midterms will be slaughterhouse
"big factor expected to be independent voters. poll conducted by the University of North Florida that week showed independent voters are going for Howland by a 2 to 1 margin
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@Redistrict
In the one D/R head to head in what was a 1-2 point GOP win in two previous elections GOP running away with the race.
Surely this is at least in large part a reaction to the Mar A largo raid
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LOL;
USA Today Fav/Unfav:
Trump (-4) 46/50
Biden (-19) 39/58
Harris (-19) 34/53
Pelosi (-35) 29/64
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@Redistrict
@CookPolitical
Which is of course not the point regarding tonight's further confirmation of the historic shift by Hispanics (not Latinx) away from the Dems & the Electoral College implications for e.g. Georgia
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NY throws in the towel:
"If you’re counting on a Trump conviction before the 2024 election, look elsewhere."
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If that is the case then he doesn't have to pony up any cash. Getting kicked of twitter & starting Truth Social may turn out to be the libs biggest error ever.
#BreakingNews
tonite (via Fox News)
DJT has been granted the necessary approvals to (in effect) pledge as loan collateral his estimated $3 Billion stock valuation in "Truth Social" (i.e. set to soon go public as part of a merger).
This will permit him to secure a bond loan.
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IMO at this point in time Trump is solid at 268 electoral College votes. He needs one of MI/WI/PA/NE2 to be elected
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Three in a row and...two out of three ain't bad
Donald Trump has clinched the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination
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"The honeymoon will not last very long. Trump will succeed in painting Harris as out-of-touch San Francisco leftist, as Bush portrayed Dukakis Mass. liberal. Trump will find plenty of running room with that campaign, as there is hardly a left-wing cause that she has not embraced
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ABC/WashPost Poll 2/24
Biden Approval 37% Disproval 55% -18
Previous -12 (41/53)
The Economy 37/58
D vs. R Congressional R+7 Likely Voters
Certain voters R +13
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"Jury decides Trump must pay E. Jean Carroll more than $83 million in defamation trial"
These ridiculous court/lawfare cases may be hurting Trump financially but they are immensely helping him politically as the public can see the bias
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Including Dems, who can't vote in the poll, pushing up Haley's numbers, was egregious at best. Many thanks to all those who spotted it and for this explanation. The MSM can't get away with it anymore-we are watching and know stuff.
A Word on New Hampshire Polling Drama
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Carson is perfectly capable as the VP candidate and indisputably loyal.
Why Donald Trump Knew He Had to Run
Ben Carson says Donald Trump had everything, but he put all that on the line when he realized the country was going off the cliff.
Watch our full coverage of
@RealBenCarson
’s speech in Davenport, IA here:
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The best part of this Harris "honeymoon" (sic) will be the endless flow of salty tears when it collapses.
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Conversely if we strip out the Quinnipiac poll Trump's lead is 2.91 but of course it doesn't work that way for
@TheEconomist
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Example:
“Among Michigan independent voters, 40% support Trump, 35% Biden, and 26% are undecided. When these independent undecided voters are pushed, their overall ballot test is split: 51% support Trump and 49% Biden,” Spencer Kimball, director of Emerson College Polling said
Perfect example of why reporting results with leaners is debated among pollsters. Without leaners, you can see how Moreno could've surged at the last minute.
But with leaners, as least how they leaned, it gave the perception it was closer than it was.
FYI, it was not close.
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Rove theorized that Trump would win the Iowa caucus "by an unconvincing margin," Last year, he predicted that Trump's polling numbers would drop among Republicans. To his, and many others', disbelief, they rose.
Karl Rove admits Trump will win in 2024
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RCP on to it now :
"Reapportionment following last census will allocate 3 additional electoral votes to states Trump won 2 more to Texas 1to Florida – and three fewer to the states Biden won. This will make Trump’s path to 270 electoral votes slightly easier to navigate."
Solid analysis. Not enough is being said about how the census changed the Electoral College, making it mathematically "easier" for Donald Trump to win in 2024 than in 2020.
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Post Supreme leak Court Polling Biden Approval;
IPSOS 42% (9 days) -2
Rasmussen 41% ( 9 days) -2
IBD TIPP 39% (6 days) -4
Aggregate Approval 41.8 No Change
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My new article:
Trump has 8 paths to victory in 2024. Biden has 2. - American Thinker
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Whitmer now Cooper-why would they turn down the opportunity of a lifetime?
"North Carolina governor Roy Cooper is bowing out of Harris VP contest"
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Imagine how she would stand up to the Dems/MSM
onslaught if she were the candidate. Those Haley +17 polls would diminish
Yo,
@NikkiHaley
suggested that
@votetimscott
is endorsing
@realDonaldTrump
out of sexism.
"Fellas are gonna do what the fellas are gonna do."
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LOL Baris to be accused of polling too low:
But "So how plausible is this, what to make of it?" <(!)
"Across 5 high-quality polls month, Trump is averaging 20 percent of Black voters and 42 percent of Hispanic voters
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Absolutely killing it in rural. Big indication for midterms and since Trump only lost by 40k big indicator for 2024 at this point
Youngkin is rolling up huge margins in rural VA, making a lot of headway in outer suburbs and doing better than I'd have expected among in-person early voters. He's in the driver's seat right now.
#VAGOV
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Put it this way; Last five none-daily tracker polls:
GOP +2 +4 +5+6+7
Aggregate GOP +4.8
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NY Times ask a worried question.
"Share of Democratic Registrations Is Declining, but What Does It Mean?
Virtually every group of voters under 70 has become less likely to register as Democrats compared with Republicans since 2019.
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Yes-DeSantis might as well have worn a millstone to the debate, or not done it in the first place
And there it is...
9 seconds. Super scummy. Super deceptive.
But...
He got him.
Also super damaging.
Wake up.
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Movement in the Betting odds aggregate after the shock Fox poll.
Was Trump +19.0% today Trump +19.1%
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Remarkable 4 point swing to Trump in IPSOS Reuters of all polls
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Dear
@pizzahut
the response (so far) to this simple tweet from an ordinary person may give you pause for thought:
Impressions 383,000
Engagements 21,685
Likes 2,430
Retweets 837
Comments 1,006
Detail expands 5,312
Profile visits 2,803
Link clicks 9,100
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MSM/Twitter have dropped the Carroll award like a hot potato. The ridiculous award $ and perceived Dem bias has turned from a crowing moment to a Dem embarrassment and confirmation of "Lawfare"
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Dems in freefall everywhere;
GOP congressional candidates currently hold largest lead in midterm election preferences in ABC News/Washington Post polls dating back 40 years,
AZ, FL, GA, NC, NH, NV, PA, WI
Republicans 58% (+23)
Democrats 35
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"A Record Number Of Black Republicans Could Be Headed to Congress 81 Black candidates are running on the GOP ticket for the U.S. House likely that, come January, Republicans will have the most Black members serving together in the U.S. House since 1889.
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First real sign of GOP sweep;
"GOP pollster Frank Luntz is ‘scared to death’ about midterm elections:
‘I’m warning now that I don’t think we’re going to have a clear result on Election Day. Republicans will take control of House, Dems will keep their grip on Senate by a seat
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It is, surely, unprecedented for foreign leaders to visit the opposing candidate to a sitting president. I can't recall such previously. He has had visits from Hungary's Oban Argentina's Milei and now Poland's Duda
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Best wishes for a great Holiday Season and for the year ahead to all. From tomorrow no need to reply to me as I won't see any Tweets/DM's/Emails/skywriting etc. as blessedly going cold turkey (lucky me)
God bless,
Mike
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Republican admitted hack political consultant throws in the towel:
Mike Murphy: “I’ve been on the phone to New Hampshire Republican operative types and it’s grim. Trump is poised to decisively win the New Hampshire primary and put the nomination away.”
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"Can you believe all of these people giving the Nazi salute at a John Fetterman rally?"
Sauce for the goosestep
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Good for him
Great to have
@ScottPresler
at
@GOP
HQ today! Both of our organizations share these same goal: WINNING!! Exciting things to come! 🇺🇸
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CBS "With women, Democrats are +10 when they were +19 in 2018, and that’s after the fallout from Roe.
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Massive swing to the right in European elections. France, Macron calls snap election after huge swing against his party. Voters in election after election overturning the old order. USA to come.
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At this point in time we are looking at a Trump presidency with the Dems controlling both Houses.
Maybe that's what America wants.
That would almost certainly happen in the ensuing midterms anyway.
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Yes, this happened
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On October 18, 2023, Biden and Trump were tied in the RCP average of all polling. Since that day, 139 days ago, Trump has led. Every single day.
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Take no prisoners. Dems in New York won't
Breaking: Ohio governor Mike DeWine signs extreme gerrymandered Congressional map giving Republicans 80-87% of seats in state Trump won with 53% of vote
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RCP Betting Odds (where people put real money down not partisan propaganda)
Biden approaching freefall at 29.4 as Trump jumps to an unprecedented 6 point lead
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@ChuckModi1
@WhiteRoseAFA
You are a real gentleman Chuck, a credit to manhood and an exemplar to young men growing up as to how they should treat a lady
@ChuckModi1
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It is quite possible the F BI raid will go down in history as one of the worst politically inspired faux pas ever.
Only a vindictive, arrogant and ultimately panicked élite could have come up with such a self defeating concept
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As per Ohio the rural are energized with Trump "on the ballot" as, effectively, he was with the senate primary. This bodes well for November across the board
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