#natgas looks like cash is going be +.10 for tomorrow and after a solid jump in HDDs, cash for the rest of the month is up 1c for the Hub and 4c lower versus the screen. I am not impressed and I dont think the market is either! 👎

@FibChartsPro Well that is what makes a market I guess. The balances look very soft to me. I don’t see how 1600 is in the cards. 3600 🤷‍♂️

@FibChartsPro i am just thinking back towards $3 and not interested in being short the front .. June and November look rich to me..

#natgas Salt Storage in Texas vs Lousiana tells me Texas a better short than the Henry Hub. Issue of course for both markets is no cold weather though we still have time.. Would rather be short May NG here instead of the front

#natgas

@PermianLigand its long way from sucking and I think there is a reasonable chance breakeven's go down on Trump Tax incentives to produce american products

@PaulSaladino7 General fear is higher production at this point. Also better breakevens for producers should Trump cut corp taxes for corporation producing products in the US

@FibChartsPro the last two times salts were this low was 2021 and 2022. Apr/Jun was -10 and its -30. the caveat to argument is that Salts may build for a week or so from here and they did not in 2021 and 2022. Cold 2h FEB? may we draw like 2021-2022?

@cap_zay We may not go anywhere ... if feb is normal

@cap_zay Feb deserves a risk premium 3.50/4 March deserves be over $3 due to risk premium and its discount to next winter I think .. still struggling with April, but 3.50+ to me was expensive but not sure what to do with the downside .. would probably cover shorts down there

#natgas the "reality" of US NG however is that it's now much easier making money being long futures than short them. Short Cash, long futures appear to be the most profitable way to trade this, and I am not sure that is going away. 🤔

@NycStock was referring to the Jan cash markets for Texas, which are down $2 for West Texas, while Hub gas for Jan is down $1

#natgas #OOTT

@PaulSaladino7 I could see cash for a few days $10 in Feb in the right circumstance ( cold ). I could see $10 for forward gas, but it’s window the closes in a few years when global gas prices fall. If you said $6 for next winter … I wouldn’t argue too hard with you.