Fund Manager AG Capital Value Flexible fund; Director of Value Asset Management (Pty.) Ltd. ; Elliottwave chartist, father of 3 ; tweets are not advice.
Gold bullion($)- compare the elliottwave textbook regular flat pattern of 3 equal waves to the actual physical $Gold bullion price moves from $ 2089 to $1673 to $2079 to $1663 on Friday = 3 equal legs in price = textbook consolidation completed = 2200/2500 in 2023/FED in a corner
PPC - little over 18 months ago it was trading at 45c with R5.5 billion debt and every pundit said it was going to the wall. We punted it on twitter. Today R5.40 with R1b in debt mkt cap of R8b & gov. passes leg. for local cement purchase only. Love the markets!
Value in SA market:
Exarro on a pullback to R195.00
Merafe on a pullback to R1.50
Bell @ R13.80 plus a 50c dividend if you can get!
Altron below R8.00 if you can get? R11.50 target.
SUI at R31.00 - buy for longer term.
Small and mid cap shares - the most exciting upside over next 3 to 9 months based purely on technical analysis are as follows:
Hulamin to R4.90
City Lodge to R5.80
BLU tel. to R8.15
BELL to R12.90
York to R4.80
Grindrod to R8.05
Wescoal to R2.00
Merafe - announced that they will earn close to 70c in trading statement & that they have a billion cash in Bslance sheet. Share is R1.70 on mkt. cap of R4b. P/e of 2.4x with a billion cash in the bank. Extraordinary dividend announcement is expected.
Thungela produces 14 -15 m tonnes p.a. & mkt. cap is R34 billion. Salungano produces 8 million tonnes p.a. and mkt cap is R670 million. Investors,say Thungela is cheap. It is 50x more expensive than Salungano for less than double the production. Takeover?
City Lodge - just had breakfast with the CEO of a listed JSE company. He's staying at City Lodge Waterfront CT. Said car park was full last night & had to park in the overflow parking area. Reassuring my view that occupancy levels are now moving above 50%.
PPC - trading update says 68c for 6 months so looking forward to around R1.36 / R5.40 share price = p/e of 3.9x with an infrastructure rollout to come soon in 2022/3. This stock has much higher levels to cone in next 12 -18 months.
If I'm right - and the mega infrastructure "political" rollout takes place it could be as much as R800 billion into infrastructure - you want to be long PPC; WBO; RBX; ACL; AFT; SSK; MUR; AEG as these mostly "unloved" shares could all be 10 baggers in 2 years.
MID CAP buy list:- Arcellor Mittal (ACL) back from 7.20 to 5.75 target 8.20; Nampak (NPK) buy weakness target R7.80; Murray(MUR) going to get to R23 / R35 in next 12 months; BLU telecoms (BLU) target of R10.50 in 12 mth. BELL buyout R20.00; City Lodge to R8.50 return to normality
Nampak - has fallen from R4.20 to R3.00 on a trading update with NO figures given & CEO saying that ALL divisions trading robustly and strong and capacity & 100% & revenue up > 20% to R18b plus (mkt. Cap is R2b) .The short covering is going to be a Netflix movie inside 12 months.
Bus. Day report today - Netcare CEO says symptoms of patients with Omicron variant are far milder than the first 3 waves. Only 10% of their Hospital patients requiring oxygen vs. 100% in previous 3 waves. This is very good news.
Merafe - production for 2021 was 379 kilo tonnes. Price for last 2 quarters was 180 US cents per pound / 2200 pounds in a ton / so $3960 per ton x 379 000 tons is $1.5 billionaire or R23 billion Rev. p.a.....On mkt. cap of R3.2 billion. Big dividend coming
City Lodge: running at it highest occupancy in last 8 years at 63% Previous highest was 62% in 2017. Share price then ave. R155.00/ 13.1 share dilution (rights issue) which = R11.83. Current share price R4.70. Rerating of this share is high. Esp. with dividends resuming. No debt
Xmas stocking: single digit p/e: 50% to "double baggers" list for 2022.
MUR
PPC
BLU
BEL
WSL
SNH
AEL
CLH
MFL
SDO
WBO
JBL
AFT
Note: Everyone is a single digit p/e share on fwd. 12/18 month forecast earnings basis.
Nampak trading statement this morning : 6 month HEPS up 100% to 36.5c which puts it on a p/e ratio of 3.7x. Too cheap at R2.80 as 12 month heps could well come close to a R1.00 With FY Revenue close to R20b & mkt cap. at R1.78b this share is WAY too cheap here. Buy.
PPC - earned 66c for 6 mth to Sept. Debt down from R2.8b to R1.2b so intetest bill costs now more than halved! Increase profitability. Expect min. R1.50 FY March so p/e of 2.6x with PIC funded infrastructure rollout to come. Cheap!
Looking at the below simplistic taxation overview of who wins when the dust settles - the 1% drop in corporate tax next year may seem too little in some business owners minds!
City Lodge - they announced essentially that they broke even for the 6 mth. period July to Dec 2021. With very poor July (16%) & Aug (21%) occupancy means Dec.must have been blowout. Looking forward this business in 2022 will be very profitable.
Jubilee Metals - beautiful asymmetrical triangle coming to fruition - which is bullish for a move to R5.60 on the break out and move. This has been a massive consolidation period on a very profitable & fast expanding tailings miner moving into green metals. Patience = Reward.
Jubilee Metals - grew 12 mth revenue 143% to almost R3 billion. Grew HEPS by 114% to 39c per share on share price of R3.45 = p/e ratio 8.8x for business growing at over 100% = severe opportunity.
Cheap SA inc. Shares: First Adapt IT...now Imperial. Next is Bell ; Altron; Caxton; Metrofile; York Timbers; Hulamin; Aveng and rest. All to be bought out at significantly higher than current prices. Patience will be rewarded.
Anglogold - way too cheap here at R366..for a gold price of $2050 heading to $2350.. Especially with zero risk to load shedding with 98% of gold assets offshore. Short term target is R440...
Longer term 12 months target of R680 to R780.
Harmony was R89 on 6 March/Rand price of gold bullion - R27,641.On Friday it touched R35 & Rand price of gold was at R27,580. Sure they have had a few 'issues' but a 60% drop in share price. I would say in 6/9 months it will be higher. Price gap at R54.18. # fed pivot # weaker $
Sasol:.. after a corrective move from R300 to R244...we have a trendline break on Volume (150% of average). From R244 to R265 in 2 days. Buy any weakness. Target is R380 inside 9 months.
Rand/US$ - after every major crisis/scandal since 2001 the ZAR seems to have "peaked" at the actual crisis time & then recovered somewhat significantly post the crisis "peak of pessimism point" - over the next 12 months on average R5 - R7 every time.
Should this be different ?
SA Inc. quality mid & Small caps for 12 - 18 month view
Coronation - 11% div yield
City Lodge - occupancy @ 52%
Altron - for Netstar value unlock
Reunert - Solar 100MW play
Jubilee - chrome, copper, pgm
Nampak - R18b turnover vs. R2b mkt cap - too cheap.
PPC results - stellar in all departments. The increase in EBITDA margin from 14.3% to 18.7% is exciting, further reduction in debt by over R300m; eps of 66c for 6 mths - fwd p/e of 4x. Gov. Infrastructure spend is the kicker for 2022.
PPC - I know i am beating the drum hard on PPC. But then I did the same for Hulamin at R2.10 & York timbers at R1.90. Both doubled inside 6 months. PPC may in fact double but ill take some profit at R8.00 level. Patience is required for the catalyst.
City Lodge/ SUI - Barloword says car rental profits tripled in last 6 months & now 17% above pre pandemic levels. This is a good read through to City Lodge & SUI profitability - looking forward. Still both very cheap on a relative basis.
JSE trades on 9x forward p/e compared against historical ave. of 12.5 x this plus SA price to book is at 1.7x vs. Global ave. Of 3.2x - widest in 23 years! Top 40 can go to 80000 plus in 12 to 18 months if you have patience. Sell the Fangman buy SA Inc.
Merafe - great set of results with 70% increase in revenue & 5% decrease in prod. cost incresing EBITDA to R2.45 billion and a dividend if 22c - with R972 million cash in balance sheet. Dividend yield of 12%.
Nasdaq down -13%
Sp500 down - 9%
Top 40 - reach all time high yesterday.
This essentially depicts the value in Top 40 vs. US markets and supports my view that SA equity will out perform in 2022. Driven mainly by Resources & perhaps gokd shares.
Murray & Roberts returns to profitability with R530m to R560 million EBITDA....last FY was a 17m loss. With order book at a record R60 billion...the current FY you can expect the real money to be made ending June 2022. Target price in a year R17 to R23.
Thungela (R30 billion mkt cap.) does 16m tonnes p.a. and Salungano did 8 million tonnes this year (R500m mkt cap) so TGA has 60x bigger mkt cap on double production - opportunity as Salungano now moving to export coal due to high demand from Europe, India in current energy crisis
Exxaro - Coal price has more than doubled in last year. Thungela from R25 to R100 and Exxaro barely moved in comparison. The right move now is the catchup trade for EXX on fwb. p/e 3.5x and div yield of 15% plus ....jeez the mkts can be ignorant sometimes.
Markets seem very "transitory" right now - time to focus on PURE value shares :- CLH; AEL; CML; SUI; PPC; RBX; SSK; RLO; SUI; PPC;MUR; NPK; PAN; Harmony; GFI.......
Bell equipment (Bel)- JSE sens says they going to earn R4.20 to R4.50 per share on 100m shares so around R420 million to R450 million & market cap is R1.5 billion. Expect large dividend announcement with FY results to fund offer to buy out minorities. NAV is R42
PPC - Value Partners Pty. Ltd (Anthony Ball) Non-Executive Director bought a further R48.5m worth of PPC in the last week taking his total purchased to approx. R84m purchased in the last 10 days.
Value in SA market:
Bell - p/e of 4x paying div of 4% NAV is R39. City Lodge - occupancy > 50% / NAV is R12.00
Altron - Netstar value is R4.5b yet Altron worth R2.2b & R800m cash from sale of Nashua + 4 x tech. div. trading highly profit.
Coronation on div. 9% / takeout target?
City Lodge - way too cheap here with 6 months earnings looming and likely to be up over 100%. Leisure & hotels shares still not anywhere near their pre-covid prices with occupancy levels now higher than pre covid & accelerating into season.
Jubilee production update : PGM production up 47%; Copper production up 70% to 1314 tonnes targeting 10 000 tonnes of copper p.a. by 2024. Chrome - additional 615,000 tonnes of concentrate. Interesting is the diversification into greener metals like copper and cobalt here.
African Rainbow Capital (AIL)-Tyme bank is the hidden 'gem' here. This digital bank just starting - signed 600 banking terminal presence in Foscini group stores. Applying for Malaysian banking licence to tap into 110 million unbanked customers via their retail partner in Malaysia
City Lodge (CLH) FY results presentation at Mt. Nelson. July and Aug. FY24 occup. both at 61% up 10% on 12 mths to June 23. Room rates rising further & mgmt. expecting another 12% up in FY24. Loss making Sandton hotel 'potentially' sold for R80m on books at R20m. Good start FY24
PPC - this is a buy here now after volume based reversal yesterday. Plus a meaningful pullback from R5.90 to R3.45 to shake out all the weak hands.The budget speech note of gazetting pension funds to bankroll infrastucture rollout was not a typo. It will happen soon;this year.
Plat/Palladium - sanctions on Russia which supplies 40% of global palladium will open up opportunity for SA pgm producers going forward & no doubt push pgm prices upwards due to supply / demand - might just be the stellar sector for 2022.
Sasol shorts are getting greedy here now at R175. On a 3-12 mth view we could see some attractive upside gains. With ZAR at 19.12 supportive & with WTI arguably $84 to $120 inside 12 mths. I would think the bounce could be sharp to $230 (initially). Price gap at R269 min target.
Afrimat - both of their iron ore mines "all in costs" production costs are $45/ ton. Current price is around $118 after recovering from $90 drop. Technical call is back to $170 to $180. Share fell from R63 to R46 now R50. Price target is R83 inside 12 months.
Merafe - announced earnings nearly 70c and R970 million cash and no debt. Puts it on s p/e of 2.2x with a big dividend expected. Printing cash at current prices. Can easily go to R2.50 to R3 from here.
Jubillee metals (JBL) looking very cheap here with pgm prices breaking upwards. Tailings operator with 50% margins at last reporting and increasing production buy 75% in last year. R3.16 to R3.25 is great buy zone.
Nampak from R2.00 to R2.80 in 10 trading days - up 40% finally I think the "compulsive shorts" on this one- got hurt & bloodied late last week. Stock is still way to cheap even here at R2.80! Technically can go to R7.00 in next year on E wave.
Long term share portfolios: Sasol & Anglogold at these current share prices in 2 to 3 years time could well both double & perhaps even double twice in 3 to 4 years
Section 163 of Companies Act protects minority shareholders against the outrageous offer today of BELL...of R10 for a Company NAV of R40 approved by same Board 2 months ago. Do not sell your shares. Force fair value at R35 via Sec. 135 Act !
@goolammv
Thats why ANC polling at 37% now from 66%.... 25 years ago.....this amount & level of corruption destroys a party eventually. Prepare for a surprise in May 24.
Jubilee Platinum (JBL) - has not move whilst most platinum shares have jumped 35% in 3/4 weeks. Chart is exceptionally bullish. That is a bull flag pattern below and projects to R8 area. Ironically Hulamin had the exact bull flag pattern - which I alerted here a few mths ago.
City Lodge and Sun International shares are set for strong rises - given that they are still so low considering domestic & international travel are back to 75% of pre-covid levels with occupancies & room rates reportedly doubling from March 2021 levels in W.C.
City Lodge occupancy incr. from 2 year record in Nov 21 of 41% to February at 46% with breakeven at 38%. CLH nicely profitable for last quarter & occupancy rising to 46%. The new enhanced food offering = Food and Bev rev up 128%. The stock is cheap with that excellent result.
City Lodge - Business Day today - CEO Widegger says first 4 months occupancy tracking pre-covid levels (56%). Says likely to exceed those levels over next 6 months inferring 60% & higher. Breakeven is around 38% occupancy.
Stefanutti as they are not bankrupt, made a profit in operating results, totally restructured their bus., cut all fat, bankers backing them & CR has a plan to launch a mega infrastructure deal backed by the PIC pension fund over next 2 yrs so ANC can gain back 50% vote.
Pan Africa Gold (PAN) great results R1.3 billion profit after tax; earned 68c ; plus cleared debt to almost zero paying a 4.85% dividend & share buy backs ti be approved due to p/e ratio of 5x. Great mgmt team. What if gold price moves to $2500?
Arcellor Mittal - appears to have completed a consolidation pattern with the low put in at R7.00 on Wed. Weekly candle looks very bullish with that reversal. Chart pattern suggests wave 4 completed at R7.00 and we are starting wave 5 to new highs. Price target is R13 to R15
Metrofile - add to that Sabvest picked up 4 million shares 2 weeks ago at 3.07.Christopher Seabrooke a wily investor judging by his impeccable growth track record at Sabvest. Something " brewing" here esp. when looking at the chart & insiders buying large chunks of equity.
Virgin's Richard Branson says they are rejoining the Cape Town - London flight route and will add 80 000 seats during season & will be flying all year round by 2024. Great news for hospitality sector.
You can add BEL ...JBL...BLU....RBP .....EXX ....AIL and CLH to the list of deep value shares. BEL (p/e of 3.5x) ; BLU (p/e of 6x); RBP (p/e of 4 x) ; EXX ( p/e of 3x).
Last time gold was $2000 Anglogold hit R640 in August 2020. Anglogold was R295 a month ago now R380. So essentially exceptionally cheap here today. Gold goes $2850 - Anglogold can go R1600 over time. From most hated to most loved perhaps.
City Lodge (CLH) - Reverse head and shoulders with neckline at R6.50 - when that breaks we tag R11.20 area by end of year. Occupancy then will be around 60%+. Love a simple business with fixed overheads. 10% extra occupancy + puts around R400m straight to bottom line profit.
OMNIA - strong results out puts it on forward p/e of just 10x. Debt reduced from a Billion last year now cash of R700m on B/S. With shortage of fertilizer globally - OMN becomes an attractive takeover target like Hulamin, Afrox, Imperial, Distell, AVI...
PPC-double digit sales volume reported in most regions; readymix volume forecast up 35% y.o.y.; debt down from R5b to R1.2b after lime bus. sale; Imports dropping due to shipping costs;massive turnaround here; SA infrastructure play; price target R8.15 then above R10 further out.
Short sellers love selling S A. Inc. against global / rand hedge long. That "trade" is going to blow up in 2022 in their hedge faces. S.A. Inc / emerging mkts. will outperform Nasdaq & SP500 for next 2/3 years.
Jubilee Metals (London listed chart) - appears to be in a bull flag after strong run up. Bull flags are generally "half way resting points" to their ultimate targets & are bullish for long-term investors. Target price is around R6.50 in ZAR - medium term (18-24 mths)
Harmony is earning R1,450,000 per kg. currently & costs are R890,000 per kg. Last quarter 13,500 kgs production x margin of R560,000 per kg = R7.6 billion for 3 months of production/ sales. Revenue for FY24 est. R60 billion on 1,650,000 ounces; continues to rise each quarter.
Foreigners bought SSW, GFI, AMS and Sasol yesterday. R400m SSW bought. They bought R2.2b Newgold day before. Sold NPN, Mondi, Bidcorp and BTI. Certainly moving long into commodities with $ DXY moving below 200 MA. Backtested 200 day at 104.12 fallen away to 103.54. Target 92.
City Lodge erupts higher on reverse head and shoulders breaking coupled with Red List removal news - first target is R5.05 before a rest. The leisure stocks are SO under owned and cheap.
Exxaro had great detailed trading stat. today consid. rail issues of late & I see the R. Bay coal price has spiked. Exxaro has a cup and handle technical pattern that projects to R310.00. After those earnings & coal price surge - think easily this year plus a robust dividend!
Murray & Roberts seller (PIC) appears to be out of the way today with close to 10m shares trading hands & share up 5%. MuR has massive potential on a 12 to 18 month view especially with the Biden infrastructure rollout & Clough div. a specialist engineering bus. in USA. BUY.
Arcellor Mittal - stellar results this morning on a p/e of 1.2 x ....what if commoditity prices start rising on a weaker $ and rates go on hold? Blue sky potential here. Debt down significantly. Cheap !
Raubex/Murray & Roberts: RBX order book R17b vs. MUR of R65b. That's before Sanral pulled their approved tenders which affects only RBX. RBX mostly exposed to SA, MUR 90% offshore. MUR mkt cap is R3.7b versus RBX at R7.1b ;margins roughly the same.MUR too cheap on relative basis.
Platinum PGM turnaround happening on chip problem abating. Jubilee metals ( JBL) has not move yet and ironically it has the most upside over 12 months. You may want to buy a few for the bottom drawer here.
Pan Africa Gold (PAN) - heps of 61c and dividend of 18c on share price of R3.33. So, p/e ratio of 5x on a dividend yield of 5.6% with almost no debt, plus ramping up solar green energy projects & AISC of $1327 = exemplary cost controls being enforced here.
City Lodge - wave 1 was the all-time low of R2.22 to R4.70. Wave 2 was classic a..b...c retracement to R3.36 recently. Wave 3 is min. 1.618 x wave 1 which counts to R7.40 area (min.)....pullback then wave 5 to R8.80 yo R9.50 min. Purely technical using elliottwave analysis.
Nampak looks very attractive here at R2.07 after producing stellar results a month ago. Share has fallen almost 50% on excellent production results. Long term thus can go to R7.20
Salungano group (SGL) - how long before it gets bought out currently on on a 'paltry' mkt cap. of R420m producing 8 million tonnes p.a. & has 63 million tonnes of Reserves.ExxaroThungela or European consortium desparate for coal?Value of those coal reserves is $21b at RBT price.
PPC - bull flag still flapping & attached to flagpole. I suspect we may get one more test of the lower green line boundary (not compulsory). So bullish into 2022 with price target of around R7.50. Catalyst for break - infrastructure rollout.
Altron ( AEL) - another "sleeping value play". They unlocked Bytes for massive value unlock to shareholders recently. CEO is restructuring business strategy into a technology focused group. Netstar seems the next value unlock here. Target price R18.60.
When the head of SARS steals R80m in graft/ corruption of tax payers money. Kinda ironic in a way. Tax collector stealing tax payers hard earned money. Should go to prison.
Nampak - Elliott wave target is R7.15 in a wave 3 move after lengthy consolidation below R4.00. R1 billion debt reduced just with trade finance facility in Nov 21 plus trading very strong on glass bottle shortage now - expect debt to decrease by R3b into FY 22 - possibly more.
City Lodge - 74% of hotels open as at Feb 21. Occup. at 35% on open hotels Feb 21. 5% in June 20. R300m free cash flow on 52% occup. Pre-covid. They will be back to normal occup. inside 12 months-mkts look ahead 6 in pricing. Think this is very cheap. So does Duncan Artus.
ACL...Arcellor Mittal....amazing how so many think it has done its run from 30c to R5.40. It was R260.00 ten years ago! It has not even recovered 3% of its fall from grace. Patience people.... patience & let profits run.
Thanks guys but have been getting a little unwarranted 'stick' lately from one PM in particular & just needed to put things in perspective - your support is appreciated.
@RodloweLowe
Rod you only discussing your views,this is what fintwit should be about.Whether right or wrong,people need to take what others say and make their own call. Never feel bad about what you say here, more opinions the better this place is. You putting your money where your views are
City Lodge SENS update - average occupancies running at 57% from July to Nov 22 with November month at 60% - November at 60% is now significantly above pre-covid averages of 56% when the share price was R12.50 to R13 40 (rights issue adjusted).
Nampak - great set of 6 month results. Rev up 24% to R8.1b; operating profit up 26% to R668m; EPS up 105% to 35c; puts shares on p/e of 4x; cash gen. by operations to up 30% to R1.1billion plus access to R750m unsecured trade finance facility. NO Rights issue here i.m.o.....!
City Lodge - increased occupancies with better room rates for the FY to date - room rates up 9.5%. So occupancies up 100% from last year and room rates up 10%. Share price was R13 (pre covid rights adjusted) with worse stats. Share price rerating imminient ...Ewave target is R10
Reunert (RLO) - the below details on their renewable energy platform strategy is why they are so correctly geared for the Eskom crisis & CR (Newcom) announcement yesterday. Renewable energy is about to liftoff & Reunert has the business platform to profiteer out of it