First time meeting the old intern boss in years! Glad my
@asianstudiesgu
friends could join me for this extraordinary opportunity to talk to LDP policy chief Hagiuda. He gave us some insight into his thoughts on Ukraine, defense, and GX.
Fukuda Tatsuo, son of former Prime Minister Fukuda Yasuo & grandson of Seiwakai founder Fukuda Takeo, indicated that he will seek the dissolution of the Abe faction created by his grandfather.
Fukuda Tatsuo will probably lead charges by the mid-level and junior lawmakers today in the Abe faction general meeting seeking the dissolution of the faction. Its options were narrowed down yesterday after the PM’s announcement.
So it seems Fukuda Tatsuo wasn’t just leading the charge for disbanding the Abe faction by speaking out at the meeting later tonight. He & around 20 Abe faction members submitted a resolution to faction chief Shionoya calling for disbandment.
BREAKING: Nikkei reports that the EU will sign separate partnership agreements w/ Japan & South Korea on security/defense industry cooperation. The Japan deal — ranging from joint investment in manufacturing to cybersecurity — could be signed by year-end.
A lay of the land on potential candidates for LDP president in the post-Kishida era.
(NOTE: This is my personal list of potential candidates I'm tracking and is in no way an indication of who will run or who I think will win)
Personal life update: Starting today, I will be working as an Associate at The Asia Group’s Tokyo office. I am very excited to be returning home to Japan after spending my undergraduate and graduate years in America. I’m looking forward to the new challenge & meeting new people!!
A thread (admittedly late) on what happened behind the scenes leading up to Kishida's decision to not seek re-election.
LDP VP Aso's ambiguous position on supporting PM's re-election bid ultimately led to decision. Aso told PM to "think about approval."
Nikkei reports the GOJ plans to loosen its defense equipment transfer policy in the upcoming Basic Policy (Honebuto) to be released in June.
It will allow Japan to transfer equipment to 12 countries w/ which the country has transfer agreements with.
1/
Kyodo reports that Seiwakai (Abe) faction members pooled approx. ¥80 million from excess fundraising party ticket sales between 2018-2022 without first sending the money to the faction. Most, if not all 99 members also received a total of ¥500 million from the faction slush fund.
Wow. Kyodo reports that the PM will not seek reelection. Open field here we go. Now it’s anyone’s to win. It honestly looked like he had a shot at reelection but pressure mounting, especially from lawmakers in vulnerable districts.
Lost for words when I saw this… I know some people dislike the LDP and former PM Abe but this is a tragic event that one could not imagine would happen in Japan. I really hope he recovers.
Now that the three factions (Abe, Nikai, and Kishida) implicated in the scandal are expected to dissolve themselves, attention turns to remaining factions, including the Aso faction led by VP Aso, who opposed abolishing factions.
Mainichi poll shows respondents want Kono Taro to be the next PM. He scored higher than Kishida. Quite shocked that Koizumi—who used to rank 2nd-4th—now ranks below Hashimoto Toru & Yamamoto Taro.
Yomiuri reports that Japan will apply “official security assistance” for the first time to provide the Philippines with small patrol boats, radars, and drones. Kishida will announce the launch when he meets President Marcos on November 3.
Big night for the CDP, as NHK projects a win in all three by-elections. Tough call for PM — call general election before it gets worse or not at all.
Tokyo-15: Sakai Natsumi (37)
Shimane-1: Kamei Akiko (58)
Nagasaki-3: Yamada Katsuhiko (44)
Kyodo poll finds the CDP has overtaken the LDP among voters as the first choice for PR votes in the general election (18% vs. 16%). LDP still ahead in regular approval ratings (25% vs. 12%). Not a good sign for the PM as he mulls when to call election.
Full list of LDP Diet members punished for their involvement in the fundraising scandal. Top execs (decision makers) get severe punishment, followed by other execs & those who received over 10 million, and then those between 5-10 million.
Mainichi with the exclusive that Digital Minister Kono had his first dinner meeting with VP Aso, his faction boss, since May 21 and reportedly informed him of his desire to run for the LDP presidency in September. First “official” candidacy.
BREAKING: Mainichi reports that the Tokyo Public Prosecutors Office will likely give up on indicting senior Abe faction members, including ex-faction secretary-generals, as they have found it difficult to prove collusion with accountants (will be arrested).
Mainichi reports that several Abe faction members had separate bank accounts to pool excess fundraising party revenue without informing the faction, separate from kickbacks received from money members deposited into faction bank accounts. Total slush fund up to ¥600 million.
LDP instructs candidates to cease all campaign activities for the time being. It’s a highly unprecedented move just days before the election. But understandable since we are facing an unprecedented situation.
As things stand, the most realistic option is calling a general election in the fall after electing a new leader. For Kishida, the best of the bad options is now to hope things get better and call one right before the September LDP presidential race.
Summary of the LDP proposal to the GOJ for the upcoming revision of the 3 defense/security documents. Some important concepts may be renamed/redefined too. Proposal to be finalized by the end of the month.
Basic points:
Chugoku Shimbun reports that then-PM Abe handed 1 million yen to an LDP candidate in an East Japan district during the 2013 HoC race, likely using the Cabinet Secretariat's "secret funds." The money was not reported in either Abe or the candidate's expense reports.
LDP’s internal analysis shows it is set to lose 42 seats and lose its singular majority in the Lower House if an election is called within the next few weeks. Ishin is set to gain the most, adding 34 seats to reach 75 seats (not enough to replace CDP as main opposition). 1/
Yukan Fuji reports that sources close to Koizumi Shinjiro say he may be preparing to run for LDP president given the dire state of the party and that he’d win if he places second and gets into a runoff against a less popular candidate like Ishiba.
BREAKING: Japan to lower classification of COVID-19 under the Infectious Disease Act to “level 5” in April. Among other things, people will be allowed to take off their masks in indoor settings.
Former State Minister of Education & four-term lawmaker Ikeda Yoshitaka and his policy secretary were arrested for underreporting around ¥48 million in fundraising party ticket sales received as kickbacks from the Abe faction slush fund between 2018-2022.
Kamiwaki Hiroshi, the professor who brought forth the Abe faction slush fund case to the prosecutors, plans to bring the case against senior Abe faction members to the Committee on Inquest for Prosecution, where the decision to not indict them could be reversed.
W/ Georgetown alum, Minister for Digital Transformation Kono Taro @ CSIS
DFFT will continue to play a central role during Japan’s year as G7 chair
大学のOBにあたる河野デジタル相
@konotarogomame
と一枚。今年G7議長国の日本の役割についてのスピーチ、大変勉強になりました!
Another blow to Kishida’s approval: State Minister of Finance Kanda Kenji resigns as Cabinet member after reports surfaced that he failed to pay taxes on four separate occasions. He’s the third Cabinet member in a month or so to resign.
Obviously I’d need to add Noda to the doc but here’s what I have for Kishida, Takaichi and Kono. I think I’ve pretty much covered every policy they’ve talked about.
ANN reports that LDP Secretary-General Motegi is considering ordering senior Abe faction members to leave the party over their involvement in the scandal. Obvious opposition from the senior members. It would be a very serious decision to appease the public.
Shukan Gendai predicts that the LDP and Komeito will lose their majority in the Lower House in the upcoming general election, down from a combined 293 seats to 213 (> 233 seats for majority). CDP stands to make major gains, possibly up from 96 to 166.
We have yet to hear from Defense Minister Kishi, Abe’s brother. Not sure if he is in Nara or in Tokyo (Kantei). I guess the media are leaving him alone for now, as they should.
The purge of key Abe faction members seems imminent now as reports continue to mount about their alleged involvement in the slush fund scandal. Two big questions: who wants to accept a Cabinet position on a “sinking ship” & what happens to the LDP’s largest faction??
🚨HOLY SHIT
Kishida is kicking ALL the Abe-faction members out of his government:
Matsuno out as Chief Cabinet Secretary.
Nishimura out as Minister of Economy.
Hagiuda Koichi out as LDP Research Council Chair
Takagi Tsuyoshi as Diet Affairs Cmt. Chair
🇰🇷 to send 7-person delegation to 🇯🇵 to discuss bilateral and trilateral relations with U.S. between April 24-28. Delegation to be led by Deputy Speaker of National Assembly Chung Jin-suk and will include ex-diplomats and experts from academia.
BREAKING: The Kishida faction plans to dissolve its political organization (used for fundraising) and cease operations at its faction office. PM’s former faction (bearing his name) makes the first big move, probably leading by example & to win over voters.
The Kochikai faction, the oldest LDP faction created by PM Ikeda Hayato in 1957, officially disbands. Former faction President Kishida announced the intention, the faction officially declared it today. The end of an era.
BREAKING NEWS: PM to visit South Korea and meet President Yoon on March 20 to emphasize bilateral ties ahead of April’s legislative elections. It also happens to be the day Ohtani’s Dodgers play the Padres in South Korea.
Ex-PM Suga makes the most explicit public statement calling for Kishida to step down and a new leader to reform the party. He said there is growing concern within the party that a change in government is coming if no changes are made.
Jiji reported that U.S. Ambassador to Japan Ram Emanuel is planning a visit to Yonaguni and Ishigaki Islands in Okinawa as a check on China's ambitions over Taiwan. Extremely rare for sitting ambassador to visit the frontlines of a potential contingency.
I still cannot believe what has happened. This is a massive loss to Japan. He has been THE prime minister since I took an interest in politics. May he rest in peace.
ご冥福をお祈りします。
PM press conference:
Kishida announces that he will not run for reelection, explaining that the LDP needs a new leader to indicate its desire to change after the political scandal.
Pleased to see my first “interview” get published in a foreign language newspaper! Thanks to
@CostanzaRdO
for accommodating the time zone and letting me answer questions in writing. Looking forward to keeping up with the race for next prime minister.
🗞️ Can a woman save Japan (and the LDP)? In today’s
@Corriere
della Sera, Italy’s leading daily newspaper, my story on
#Y
ōkoKamikawa, Foreign Affairs minister + rising star. What are her chances of becoming 🇯🇵’s next PM? [Featuring analyst
@RinNishimura
]
Quick roundup of Abe faction members and amount of kickbacks they underreported in their expense reports. Inquest Committee could set ¥20 million as threshold for relaunching investigations toward possible indictment.
New Year’s exclusive from Sankei: Prosecutors will investigate ex-PM Mori Yoshiro’s direct involvement in creating/maintaining the Seiwakai faction’s slush fund, which some claim was first made over 20 years ago when Mori was faction president.
Japan-U.S.-Taiwan lawmakers meet online for inaugural “strategic dialogue”. According to Nikkei, discussion focused on responding to Chinese military pressure, promoting FOIP, possible U.S. and Taiwan accession to the (CP)TPP and Taiwan joining WHO as an observer.
Running theories for Renho’s run:
1. Internal CDP numbers show anti-LDP sentiment enough to defeat Koike
2. Renho using this to raise profile and test waters for CDP ahead of HoR election (she makes switch from HoC)
3. CDP underestimated Renho’s unpopularity relative to Koike
Aso reportedly told Motegi that his faction would have to back Kono, one of their own, if he runs. Honestly, he could be thinking about the run-off, where he may back Kono initially but then throw his support behind another "status quo" candidate over the Ishiba/Koizumi type.
Ex-PM Koizumi Junichiro met with ex-LDP secretary generals Nikai Toshihiro & Yamazaki Taku, as well as ex-policy chief Kamei Shizuka and reportedly said the LDP could be wiped out if the opposition unites. A big IF that is yet to materialize.
Wow. I don’t think there’s ever been a Secretary General of the ruling party who has been eliminated right after being named to that position. Kishida may have to pay for it later but it’s also just really embarrassing to have to be revived later.
🚨🇯🇵🗳️KANAGAWA-13
New LDP Secretary-General under PM Kishida, Amari Akira, on the verge of losing his seat against Futori Hideshi (CDP), TBS exit poll says.
Damn. Damn.
Reshuffled Cabinet
14 changes and 9 lawmakers taking on ministerial positions for first time.
Kishida faction gives up one position (held 4 before) while Aso gains one. Ave. age & no. of terms up one year each from last Cabinet.
Gendai Business published a piece a few weeks back about the post-Kishida race. Headline suggests PM may bow out after the G7 summit in Hiroshima in May.
🧵 on some candidates they name
Yomiuri reporting that the GOJ plans to purchase up to 500 Tomahawk missiles as initial “counterstrike capability” by around 2027. The domestic missile is expected to take until 2026 to deploy.
For reference, the UK purchased 65 missiles for approx. ¥19 billion in 2014.
Journalist Tazaki Shiro explained recently that the CDP’s internal survey in March projected that the party would win 150+ seats in the next general election, a significant increase from 97, while the LDP would fall to around 200. Explains CDP’s confidence these days.
I translated the LDP Political Reform HQ’s interim report released yesterday. If anyone wants to read the whole thing instead of news articles summarizing it, here it is.
Ex-Environment Minister Koizumi Shinjiro said that the former Abe faction execs should be asked to leave the party, as it would be unfair to others who have left the party for other scandals to give them lenient punishments.
In April 2021, then-PM Suga went into three by-elections and lost all of them (one by default). He failed to recover from this, among other factors, resulting in a decision to not seek reelection in September. Kishida is “bold” though, so could defy odds and run anyway.
BREAKING: CDP’s no-confidence motion against the Kishida Cabinet is defeated in the Lower House. Final vote tally 167-288, with LDP & Komeito easily outvoting the opposition parties.
Kishida Cabinet approval reaches a record-low in the latest NHK poll, falling to 21% (-3 pts. from May). Disapproval went up 5 pts. to 60%. This is the lowest approval rating since the LDP returned to power in 2012. LDP approval also hit record-low since 2012, at 25.5%.
Safe choice: Motegi
Popular choice: Ishiba or Kono
Likely to win base: Takaichi
Dark horse(s): Koizumi/Hayashi/Kamikawa
Key players to watch: Aso, Suga, Kishida, Abe faction (what remains of it), Nikai
Mainichi article with a table on what political parties are proposing to tighten rules on political funding. LDP looks bad as the only party without proposals for policy activity fees and reinforcing penalties. And they're the ones causing the problem.
Sankei explores the political battles within the LDP leading up to September's LDP presidential election — it looks like an "Aso vs anti-Aso" battle with ex-PM Suga serving as a key determinant of the outcome.
Not really surprising since the party’s main goal in the next general election is to overtake the CDP as main opposition rather than toppling the current government. It needs to be taken seriously as a national party first to take on or negotiate with the LDP. Very strategic.
Holy ****.
Under the leadership of Baba Nobuyuki, Ishin no Kai has chosen a side (to keep the LDP in power):
'we need to destroy the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan' Baba dixit today.
@Cadeyrnn
Huge thanks to
@NikkeiAsia
for publishing my op-ed shifting the focus away from a possible Trump 2.0’s impact on Japan to a need for strategic recalibration of Japanese engagement with the United States and China. In short, there will be growing pains to adjust to new reality.
Jiji reports that the dissolution of the Unification Church is part of the PM’s strategy to prepare to dissolve the Lower House and call a general election by the end of the year.
I would just like to say that some are praising the PM for his “courage” to disband his faction, but 1) the Kishida faction’s staff was indicted over the scandal and 2) the move more or less helps Kishida for a potential reelection bid. I think the public can see through that.
Proof Kono Taro is popular among the electorate ➡️ more than 100 LDP lawmakers requested his presence at their campaign events despite only 86 voting for him in the 1st round of the presidential election.
Reshuffled Kishida Cabinet lineup:
Ex-FM Hayashi back as Chief Cabinet Secretary
Ex-Justice Minister Saito Ken at METI
Matsumoto Takeaki back at MIC
Sakamoto Tetsushi at MAFF
Kyodo reports that JCP Chairman (委員長) Shii Kazuo may be replaced at the January party convention by Tamura Tomoko (policy chair), the first change in chairpersons since 2000. She would be the 1st female chairperson. Shii could be named central committee chairman (議長).
PM was in town for the summit with Biden. He stopped by at SAIS to give a speech on Japan’s foreign policy direction going forward. Really emphasized “turning point in history” (歴史の転換) and Japan’s deepening/expanding cooperation w/ the U.S.
Economic Security Minister Takaichi Sanae indicated her desire to run for LDP president, citing a phrase by Chinese warlord Liu Bei of the Three Kingdoms which says people should try their best and let the heavens decide their fate.
Not a good sign for LDP Secretary General Motegi, as Yomiuri reports VP Aso is not keen on supporting his bid for the presidency. Aso has a couple of choices: Kono (own faction), Kamikawa, Kobayashi, among others. His backing matters a lot.
Confirmed LDP leadership lineup starting August 2022. Four new faces and one vacant pos. in the Upper House.
Hagiuda is expected be a mediator between the GOJ & conservative (Abe folks) forces, esp. the Abe faction on issues like defense spending.
For starters the largest faction in the party just lost its leader. I doubt anyone can fill the Abe-sized hole.
And then there’s Yamaguchi too. If I’m not mistaken, the Abe lineage has come to an end (is it possible for Kishi’s son to carry it on??).
There will be ample time to think about the political implications of Abe's death, but needless to say it leaves a significant power vacuum in the LDP.
Nikkei with breaking news that the PM will cancel his trip to Central Asia (August 9-12) to prioritize the GOJ's response to the possible Nankai Trough earthquake. PM would have joined the first "Central Asia Plus Japan" Dialogue summit.
Kyodo reports that the LDP will consider asking some Abe faction members to leave the party, after the senior leadership were unconvinced they had feelings of remorse for causing the weaken during this week’s interviews. Perhaps the four interviewed this week?
Yomiuri reports that LDP leadership has urged senior Abe faction members (likely the seven who were not indicted) to quit the party themselves and/or resign as a lawmaker to take responsibility for the scandal, amid growing calls for accountability from the public & lawmakers.
Who would’ve expected our great nation top a group with two former world champions!! On we go to face Morocco! Two teams with a lot of spirit face off in the round of 16. 夢は続く
#FIFAWorldCup
We could see a fundamental shift in LDP power dynamics, with the Kishida-Aso-Motegi triangle slowly becoming obsolete and the so-called anti-establishment (Suga, Ishiba, etc.) supporting the PM’s decision to dissolve his faction. Brings up Q of coalition building in September.
U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel, who has continued to criticize China on social media despite reports Washington asking him to stop, tells Sankei in an interview that China lacks transparency and a sense of responsibility required of a great power.
Asahi reports that an increasing number of LDP Diet members (excluding Kishida faction folks) believe the PM is done and cannot win reelection in September. An unnamed member says the presidential race is an opportunity to discuss wholesale reform.
Digital Minister Kono said today that he would support restarting nuclear power plants that have received safety approval from the Nuclear Regulation Authority, seemingly walking back his “zero nuclear” position to pander to the conservative, pro-nuclear LDP crowd.
NHK reported overnight that Abe faction acting leader Shionoya Ryu & ex-HoC Secretary General Seko Hiroshige are likely to be booted out of the LDP, while tough measures expected for Shimomura, Nishimura, Nikai faction’s Takeda, Matsuno, Takagi, and Hagiuda.
Mainichi reports that LDP Secretary-General Motegi's political organization did not disclose the use of around 94 million yen in expenses between 2020-2022 in its expense report. That is around 98.1% of all expenses between 2020-2022.
Article on why LDP will not rush to pressure Kishida into stepping down:
1. Results were expected (2 default losses)
2. Internal instability
3. PM away for diplomatic trip (no time for opposition to pack the pressure)
4. September is more important
Missed this earlier but the Abe faction will take a “13 Lords of the Shogun” (NHK drama) style council structure, with 7 senior members taking on leadership roles. Acting President Shionoya Ryu (10 terms) will serve as leader for now—they’ll keep Abe’s name for stability. 1/
The National Police Agency will look into the security measures that were in place to protect former PM Abe during his stump speech. Again, some Twitter users are questioning whether this could have been prevented and whether there were problems w/ the security measures.
New Abe faction scandal — Former Mie Governor & LDP lawmaker Suzuki Eikei referred to prosecutors for receiving ¥10 million in donations from a construction company with a public works contract in his district prior to the 2021 Lower House election.
Sneak peak of the project I’m currently rushing to finish. With the LDP election in a few weeks (campaign starts in a few days), I figured I had to wrap my head around everything that’s going on (and wow there was a lot just in the last weeks). In the process of making a table…