Peter Linder
@RealPeterLinder
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The OG of the O&G industry for 45+ years in various capacities. Most notably, I was a highly ranked O&G analyst as well as an energy fund manager.
Canada
Joined January 2022
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Probability of OPEC cut, 50%
Prob. of China opens soon, 75%
Prob. of winter arriving, 100%
Prob. of SPR release stops, 100%
Prob. of lower Russian prod,100% Prob. of geopolitical issues, 75%
Prob. of lower oil inventories 90%
Probability of $90+ WTI in two months:80%
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Musings of an Ex Oil & Gas Analyst: Today’s huge slide in oil and gas stocks was partly due to investors wanting to take profits from their huge gains in 2022 but wished to defer any capital gains tax for a year.
All opinions very welcome.
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I am going to go out on a limb as suggest that WTI bottomed out today at just under $76 and it will now steadily rise to over $90 by this year end.
I welcome all comments.
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I launched my oil and gas fund in October 2002 and for the next three years my little fund’s performance was phenomenal as my timing in hindsight was perfect. Forward 20 years and it feels like we are in the same (in fact much better) situation regarding oil and gas stocks.
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WTI oil price will likely break $90 in the next couple of days on its way to $100. Oil stocks here look very attractive today, especially while the overall markets are down. WCP BTE CPG HWX, who cares which one, buy all!
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Never wrong to take profits but be careful. Virtually all oil and gas stocks are way below their 52 week highs, I believe oil prices relative to supply/demand dynamics are still very low, and great Q3 results and dividend bumps are weeks away.
I am not a seller.
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Just now on CNBC.
For whatever it’s worth, J.P. Morgan recommending to overweight oil stocks. They see long term oil price at $100 with spikes to $150.
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The phenomenal ride for oil and gas stocks witnessed over the past two years is still in its early stages. I know this is an aggressive call but I suggest there is much money to be made from owning oil and gas stocks, and not as a short term trade but as a long term investment.
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Finally all the stars have lined up for steady rise in long term oil prices which in turn will propel most oil and gas stocks to new 52 week highs within the next few months. I also believe there are now no real obstacles for WTI oil price to reach $100 this year.
And yes, WCP
#1
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Every time I mention that fund managers are showing increasing interest in oil and gas producers, I get blowbacks, that it’s time to sell. I don’t understand this. Oil fundamentals are great and will only get better, so the more the merrier.These are not tech stocks of 1999/2000.
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On CNBC right now. Look at what stocks the four US fund managers just pick. Three of the four are major US oil stocks. The growing interest in oil and gas producers among institutional investors is rampant.
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TMX just commented that the expansion of their pipeline to Vancouver will be in operation by the end of this year. This will add 850,000 b/d to Canada’s export capacity and most importantly, for the first time to new markets in Asia.
Bullish for Canadian oil producers.
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New strategy here: I will post on Twitter whatever I wish to. If anyone has a problem with what I post, block me. I welcome all comments and criticisms as long as they are constructive, otherwise I will block you. And I will mention WCP as often as I please.
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Met today with the President and the COO of Pine Cliff. I was impressed: no debt and $50 million cash, long life gas reserves with 6% production decline.
Their high dividend yield of 8% is safe with capex only 25% of cash flow. For gas exposure, PNE is among the best to own.
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I must say that with over 30 years of being heavily involved with Canadian oil and gas stocks, I have never seen such a major decoupling between their share prices and oil prices.
Could this be the new norm? This is very possible but I don’t believe it is.
I remain fully invested
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I am in Florida on vacation. I truly don’t need the constant criticisms resulting from some of my Twitter posts. I love providing oil and gas information and even more so having some fun with it.
I will revisit Twitter in January. I wish happy oil and gas investing for all.
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Oil price $95-$100 by year end with: China loosing Covid restrictions, EU’s embargo of Russian oil soon, SPR releases ending, US Democrats further restricting drilling, US cold weather arriving, US$ weakening, economic soft landing more likely etc. Buy CNQ, MEG, CVE, WCP TVE, BTE
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Recently I posted “$90 oil by the end of this week and $100 oil by early November.”
Now I see $90+ tomorrow and $100 this month.
If you are not up to your max tolerance for holding oil stocks, then I suggest adding at tomorrow’s market open.
And raise your tolerance level by 50%.
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Imagine where oil stocks would currently betrading at if the DOW, S&P and TSX weren’t crashing today.
Assuming these stock exchanges stabilize or even rise next week, oil stocks will rip, especially if oil prices continue their rise. I see significant more upside for oil stocks.
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I would like to take this opportunity to compliment Eric Nuttall for his unwavering and persistent bullish oil price comments for the 2H/23 which have now proven to be correct.
And importantly, Eric’s reasoning that rapidly falling world oil inventories is the catalyst.
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Energy only positive sector today on the DOW and WTI is now less than $1 away from $90; is there a better sector than energy to invest for the foreseeable future? I don’t think so.
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My prediction yesterday that we have reached the bottom for oil prices and for oil weighted producers’ shares received considerable criticism. Well so far, my call has been the correct one.
And I now believe that today was the beginning of a longer term, positive trend .
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Two days ago I tweeted “Best buying opportunities in two years”. It is way too early to blow my own horn but what the heck?
I am only saying this because I am even more convinced that a strong recovery in oil prices and oil and gas stocks is well underway. I am all in.
#com
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It is very sad to me that some of you think that I am just promoting WCP because I have a big position in it. That has nothing to do with it.
Oh contraire, I am just trying to help the little people have a better life.
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Head of Energy Aspects , Amrita Sen, one of the top oil experts was just interviewed on CNBC. When asked for her forecast for WTI prices, she responded for 2023: “under $100 for first half and $110 WTI for second half 2023”. This is conventional thinking among several oil experts
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Twitter suspended me this morning, but they suspended the wrong RealPeterLinder.
I AM BACK!
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Apparently OPEC has begun discussions to potentially cut production when they meet October 5th. Should they decide to reduce output by 500,000+ b/d, I expect oil prices to jump by over $5 and approach $90 for WTI.
Importantly, this would set a precedent for future cuts.
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Now that we know Eric Nuttall has again a large position in WCP, and he is generally never wrong, my job of promoting WCP may be over. However as I also must help the little people, I won’t totally give up this responsibility.
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I must break my promise not to post for a week this one time.
Now represents the best buying opportunities for oil and gas stocks since mid 2020.
Such stocks as $CPG and $WCP are trading as if oil price is $65.
Remember these stocks are in their best shape ever in every respect
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Presented on CNBC this morning, this picture says it all.
Energy will remain the best place to park your money through 2023.
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I am not sure if I was clear enough regarding my opinion of WCP, so please allow me to be more emphatic: if WCP would be one one my grandkids, this stock would be by far my favourite.
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In my career as an oil and gas analyst and energy fund owner that span decades, I don’t believe I have ever seen such apathy towards quality oil stocks when oil prices are not only strong but experiencing a strong rally.
Nevertheless, I remain convinced that this is temporary.
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National Bank just raised $WCP’s target price to $18.50 from $16.50.
This represents a potential 70% one year return along with a current $0.73 annual dividend. And with 75% of FCF returning to investors, another dividend boost shortly.
Note that $WCP is my biggest holding.
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Oil price $90, gas price $6.15 on NYMEX, buy you favourites, and in case you may have forgotten, mine is WCP which I have been buying all morning.
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Please don’t be too shocked but I added a fourth producer to my stable: $BTE. Bought some this morning.
Reasons: low valuation, huge torque to oil price, excellent Clearwater drilling, large debt coming down, etc.
And yes, I used to be quite negative on the stock.
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Clearly there is minimal investors’ interest in oil stocks. Oil prices have been steadily recovering and more importantly their outlook has improved, led by China opening up. WTI currently up $2.50 to $77.64 with little market responses.
Great buying opportunity!
WCP perhaps?
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Interestingly no one is talking about natural gas, NYMEX gas right now up $0.72 to $7.50, that’s a 10% move!
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For the record, I came back to Twitter solely for medical reasons: during my brief sabbatical, my body started shaking, I had difficulty standing and my eyesight deteriorated. As well WCP offered my a huge stipend to return. I am feeling much better now physically and financially
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Canadian oil & gas stocks way undervalued according to Morgan Stanley.
See below:
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Amazingly, many oil and gas stocks are holding in very well today given the major weakness in oil prices, currently below $79. Some energy stocks are even up today. I am of course particularly pleased how my favourite stock WCP is essentially flat for the day.
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For the few who are unaware, effective this month, WCP’s monthly dividend jumps by 32% to $0.0483. Their dividends now provide a 5.4% yield with another dividend boost this summer. And of course investors must consider the likely significant share price appreciation forthcoming.
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MAJOR ALERT:
Unless $PEY hits $15 tomorrow (unlikely), I promised last week that I would be off Twitter for a year. So I will abide by this promise.
However, in the unlikely event that at least 20 of you give me a “Like” to this post, I will still post on Twitter.
Your call
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Well despite all my critiques, I am proven correct in consistently calling for WCP to be very successful in their non core asset sale to be announced in mid December and then to announce a strong (32%) boost in their monthly dividend to $0.483.
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WCP announced today that all three of their asset sales have now closed and importantly, their net debt is down to $1.5 billion. This means their debt is only $200 million away the $1.3 billion level at which WCP will again raise their monthly dividend by 26% to $0.068.
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Wow, frankly I did not expect this large reversal in oil and gas stocks with the large jump in oil prices. Obviously a great deal of profit taking but I would definitely be a buyer here.
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Last chance to buy Whitecap before their very positive press release tomorrow regarding their operations update, even stronger guidances for 2023, etc.
In my opinion, WCP is the best mid cap oil producer to own.
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I am a senior citizen with no knowledge of the energy sector.
I would like to buy three producers that will give me such a great return within six months that my wife and I can finally retire, otherwise she is leaving me.
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Eric Nuttall is by far the most knowledgeable re oil and gas fundamentals/stocks.But I have two criticisms when it comes to his target prices for the uninitiated: using $100 oil and more importantly 5-6 multiples. Being more conservative would give him even more credibility.
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Just imagine how oil traders will react in a couple of months with no imminent US recession, the start of the driving season, China opens up even more with decline in Covid cases, European economies stronger and lower exports of Russian oil and products:
Positively for oil prices
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Anyone have any ideas why WTI oil price right now is firmly over $80 and oil stocks are doing virtually nothing? Buying opportunity?
I think so.
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I will really go out on a limb and state that: This oil price/oil stocks correction is just about over and by later today, the start of a steady and sustainable reversal will arrive. I should never do this but what the heck. I am a gambler and I like the odds.
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I am convinced serious sector rotation into the oil and gas sector is imminent. There are just too many positive factors at play for such a rotation not to happen.
Consequently, I believe being heavily overweighted in energy stocks right now would be very prudent.
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Due to Eric Nuttall’s erroneous comments on BNN last Friday regarding Whitecap issuing shares to buy XTO for $1.7 billion, there is a large number that have accepted this notion.
Let me be clear, this was an all cash acquisition, rendering it very accretive in all respects.
#com
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Read $WCP’s 2022 results and guidances and my opinion is the results are excellent in every respects.
Congratulations to Grant Fagerheim and his very strong team for generating such results and creating one of the best Canadian E&P companies in the industry for years to come.
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A few days ago I predicted that WTI oil price would hit $90 by this Friday. Then I changed it to yesterday as the outlook looked even better.
Well, WTI just now surpassed $90.
I am clearly losing my touch regarding my ability to forecast oil prices, my apologies!
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As of today, I have officially won three lunch bets with three humbled men who thought that WCP at a $10.07 closing price will surely fall below $10 over a three week period. To not further embarrass the three, I will not name them, unless of course they don’t pay up.💪😀😋
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I am talking my book here, nevertheless WCP is a very attractive buy here with their great Montney assets, oil price up $4 nicely over $92 (technical breakout) and its share price is down.
If I am wrong, I’ll buy coffee and a donut to all who listened to me.
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WTI up $1.25 approaching $80 while oil stocks are doing nothing. It’s Friday and it has been a solid week for oil stocks. Nevertheless, I believe today is a great day to buy oil weighted producers.
With WTI about to break $80 and continue to move higher, I am adding WCP.
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Some of you have, and many of you are seriously considering taking profits on your energy stocks. You saw what happened in June 2022 (collapse) and you don’t want a repeat.
My opinion: never wrong to take profits but I suggest you don’t. In fact buy more, many strong tailwinds.
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More good news for WCP: the 20 million WCP shares owned by Manulife were recently sold. Consequently, no more WCP shares overhanging the market.
There is now absolutely no reason to hold back investors from aggressively buying WCP shares.
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As I write this, the DOW, S&P and Nasdaq falling strongly while oil prices are holding in nicely. And this follows terrible stock markets last Friday while oil prices were up over $4 to approximately $93 WTI. Could this mean there is safety in owning oil stocks? Definitely.
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Criticize $CPG and me all you want.
The transformation of $CPG into a premier Canadian oil producer is now complete.
$CPG will prove all their naysayers totally wrong in 2024.
Very little quality Montney assets left to buy.
$CPG shareholders will be well rewarded.
Stay tuned
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I recently took a position in $BTE. Note that among intermediate sized, non oil sands producers, $BTE has the highest torque to oil prices.
I believe we are heading towards $100 WTI oil price by end of this year. Those who share my bullish view on oil prices should be buying $BTE
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Next stop $100, no brakes on this train and it’s heading downhill!
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Here is an aggressive call: I believe we are on the path towards much higher oil prices and share prices for quality oil and gas producers. In my opinion, we are back to Jan-June 2022 period. If I am even slightly correct, then now would be a tremendous buying opportunity.
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WCP definitely no longer the “Rodney Dangerfield” of the oil patch. It is finally getting the due respect it deserves. I believe, fundamentally WCP is the best producer to own right now.
May have mentioned this in the past but again, just trying to help the little people.
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Out of hibernation for one time.
I expect excellent $CPG results in the morning:
- excellent Montney/ Duvernay results
- production beat street estimates
- large debt reduction/share buybacks
- production targets raised
- strong CF, FCF and earnings
Happy $CPG shareholders
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Just for information: I was an oil & gas analyst for 8 years, an energy fund PM for 10 years, related experience of 19 years. I have seen and analyzed 100’s of oil and gas producers going back 30 years.
I would rank $WCP today as definitely among the top 10 over this lon period.
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For those who knew me 25 years ago as an analyst with CIBC, they should remember me as a very aggressive one, usually pumping one name at a time (notably CNQ) and usually right.
I am still the same person, only now pretending to be an analyst and WCP is my choice, but without pay
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Whitecap released their guidances for rest of 2022 and 2023. Check their website.
Strong production growth, two large dividend increases (Q4/22 and mid 2023, $1.2 billion free cash flow in 2023 under $80 WTI.
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WTI oil price back to $90 on its way to $100, NYMEX gas price over $6 and winter coming. US gas drilling facing significant renewed challenges from Biden new Democratic governors. Buy what you like.
My favourite oil producer is Whitecap and my favourite gas producer is Nuvista.
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WCP delivers excellent Q3 financial and operational results highlighted by production exceeding guidance and most importantly, drilled 12 very successful Montney well on XTO lands since May (with XTO), now 100% WCP with 120 day production of 1,900 Boe/d (36% liquids).
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I have enjoyed chatting on Twitter most of the time. I will now take a short sabbatical. Anyone can disagree with my comments, in fact I love a good debate, but not when comments to me become hostile.
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I have been saying for a couple of weeks that oil prices are heading higher along with oil weighted producers. Today should be no different. WTI is closing in on $85, Brent $90. I am all in. Great opportunity for me while there are still skeptics. My pick is WCP. Time for a shot?
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Waiting for WTI Realist, who lost the WCP bet with me, to announce that “I am BRILLIANT.”
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All this doom and gloom and WTI is around $74 right now.
Sell your oil stocks if you believe in technical analysis and buy oil stocks if you believe in market fundamentals and not charts.
I am in the latter camp.
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February WTI right now is $75.12, up $1.71. Oil stocks are doing nothing. $CPG up $0.01.
Zero interest in the energy sector.
This cannot continue much longer!
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WCP is Eric Nuttall’s fifth largest holding this month. That says it all; don’t need to tweet about WCP any longer. Taking one year sabbatical.
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OK one Tweet on Birchcliff:
After market close today, BIR will release some very positive information which will likely include: total debt zero, confirm $0.80 dividend next year, possibly moving up date to end of this quarter, and very bullish five-year plan.
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If you love Montney wells, you got to own $WCP, $CPG, and $NVA, as I do. The market certainly agrees.
Met with a VP of $CPG this morning; their story is even better than I thought. If WTI oil remains above $80 for the rest of this year, $CPG should hit $15 by year end.
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It’s a beautiful day when stock markets are all down, oil and natural gas prices are down, and most oil and gas stocks are up: a break out? Yes!
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I believe there is a 75% probability that OPEC+’s announcements ( actual cuts/comments) from their meeting tomorrow will be strong enough to raise and maintain oil prices above the strong closing prices today ($86.22 WTI and $91.80 Brent).
I am interested in what other expect.
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I believe today is a breakout for oil and gas prices, take a look. Oil and gas stocks up but lagging given their recent corrections. This may be a very good time to go all in, especially for long term investors. And very soon we will have great Q4/2022 results and guidances.
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Worth repeating “If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs”. Never panic if you believe oil and gas price fundamentals longer term remain positive, stay the course. We have been here many times in the past and quality oil and gas stocks always recovered.
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Note that NYMEX natural gas price is up today over 11% with cold weather coming. And WCP is increasing its gas exposure to 35% of total production next year. Another excellent reason to buy WCP. Also it will likely go from the bottom performer this year to the top one next year.
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I bought more WCP this morning as WTI has broken out, now comfortably over $80. At this oil price, I expect WCP to again boost their very strong monthly dividend in 1H23 and continue to report great drilling results, including their Montney wells.
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Today will definitely be the best day for oil and gas stocks so far in November!😀
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Spoke to God and I was informed that I can now have two wives.
Just spent considerable time with NVA management and I am now officially also in love with this company. Bought some more NVA and you will now here me talk up both WCP and NVA. A brief report on NVA will follow soon.
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Next bet: I will bet lunch in Calgary that when WCP reports their Q4 results around mid February, the results of their recent Montney wells,along with many other positive updates, WCP stock will exceed $11.25, I also win if WCP hits this price before hand. Any takers?
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I have a very strong feeling, for reasons I already stated, that most Canadian oil & gas stocks will have a great week coming up.
If I am proven to be right and if my three horses score a trifecta, I am buying coffee for all my followers!
Now isn’t this really nice of me?
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Favour CVE, they will report Q3 November 2 before market open. They have and will continue to do a great job in creating shareholder value with an excellent management team. I expect the release will provide several positive news that’s not in the market.
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1) Within two weeks, WCP should announce the likely very successful sale of their non core 12,000 Boe/d production. I expect a total price of at least $400 million. This in turn would reduce their total debt to below $1.8 billion and immediately boost their monthly dividends.
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Which Canadian mid cap producer has the most growth opportunities via the drill bit over the next five years? My pick is WCP, and I say this with great confidence. I welcome your picks.
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I trust no one missed how well WCP has performed today despite WTI down by close to $3, and with a big volume of trades. Growing strong interest in WCP is clear indication that this producer is finally getting the recognition long overdue.
Yes I have a large position in WCP.
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Eric Nuttall also just mentioned on BNN that he recently bought 1 million shares of $CPG at $10.03. He obviously very much supports $CPG’s major acquisition.
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Over the past 2 years, I have held steadfast regarding my very positive thoughts on $WCP as evidenced by my persistent and aggressive buy recommendations.
Meanwhile, there were many who seriously criticized my comments.
I am pleased to announce that I have been vindicated!
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In a few weeks from now, I believe we will look back at February 2 and say to ourselves: “We should have bought much more oil weighted producers”.
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The OPEC+ move to cut production has effectively guaranteed that
$WCP will boost their monthly dividend to $0.0608 this July. With 75% of FCF pledged to shareholders, expect a 3rd dividend boost later year.
Tomorrow will be the start of great days for all oil/gas producers!
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