Ray Duch
@RayDuch
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Director of the Centre for Experimental Social Sciences at Nuffield College, Oxford. Visitor @IAST1 Toulouse.
London, Oxford and Monbalen
Joined October 2011
RT @FannyYangETH: Eager to hear feedback from anyone who applies causal inference about this recent work with this amazing group of people…
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RT @pdebartols: This is joint work with amazing collaborators: @JavierAbadM @Guanbo17 @DonhauserKonst @RayDuch @FannyYangETH and Issa Dahab…
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RT @sarahobolt: 🚨 LSE Postdoc Fellow in Political Behaviour 🚨 We're hiring a 2-3 year postdoc fellow at the LSE to join our great team @LS…
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Out today in PNAS – well-identified evidence from our 16-country study: pandemics are global but political responsibility attribution is local & health outcomes trump the economy Tom Robinson @PeejLoewen Alexei Zakharov @PNASNews
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RT @egocantos: Please consider applying to present at the third edition of our Early Career Researchers in Law and Courts workshop. This ye…
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Attention experimental and behavioral social scientists! @EnriqueFatas is hosting #IMEBESS2025 22-24 May 2025 in beautiful Valencia, Spain @UEValencia. Please submit paper proposals to deadline 1 February 2025. @europsa
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Today is the day. Please submit!🔔 Reminder: Call for Papers – EPSA XV, June 26–28, 2025, Madrid! 📢 Submit your proposals by Dec 18, 2024 for the 15th EPSA conference at UC3M (Puerta de Toledo campus). 🔗 Submit: 🌟 Details:
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Congrats @tara_slough & @scottatyson - super important contribution -tks!
So happy to announce that my book with @tara_slough is now out at Cambridge Elements!! External Validity and Evidence Accumulation Part 1 develops key theoretical concepts for evidence accumulation. Part 2 applies those concepts to meta-analysis, replication, and extrapolation
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Definitely not to be missed! And how timely!
On Tuesday 3rd December, Professor Sara Hobolt, Sutherland Chair in European Institutions at the London School of Economics and Political Science, will present 'The Rise of Populism in Europe.' Admission is free, with tickets available via our box office
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Deadline approaching for #polmetheurope 2025! in London 7/8 April. submit by 30 nov.
🚨2 days to go to submit an abstract for POLMETH EUROPE 2025!🚨 Join us in London on 7-8 April to present and discuss innovative research methods and their applications. Submit your abstracts by 30 November via the conference website:
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Our final 2024 AI poll - thanks @RobertoCerina for pulling all this together! It’s been a fantastic learning experience for me.
🥳🤖 The 5th and *FINAL* PoSSUM AI poll is now live ! Explore the underlying data (1054 𝕏 users), crosstabs, national and state estimates here Digital fieldwork conducted from 17/10 to 26/10. We find Harris ahed nationally by ~2% points, BUT ... (1/n)
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Congrats @SThieme4
@PSRMJournal @cbsMiP @mikedenly @RayDuch @DwingerFelix @jcrohsaine @sanford_gordon @lauren_honig @SKates5350 @HLarreguy @giacomolem @alicemalmberg1 @KGMichelitch @politiconomics @hyeyoungyou It was really helpful for improving the paper.
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Our state-level numbers look good…Jury is still out but our #AIPolling may have solved the shy-Trump-partisan problem of conventional polling – Trump partisans are NOT shy on social media! @Nate_Cohn @aaronzitner @FiveThirtyEight @pol4casting @PollyVote
🗣️NEW: PoSSUM Poll🤖estimates for 05/10 to 15/10 - The race appears stable at the national level, and remains in favour of Trump at the electoral-college (Estimated EC: Trump 297 - Harris 241, P(R win)=0.74). Some movement at the state-level ... /n
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RT @ps_polisci: Guest edited by @MaryStegmaier & @p_mongrain, w/ contributions by @BrunoJerome_Z, @VeroniqueJEROME, @NadeauRichard3, @SCama…
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More rigorous evidence that #aipolling should be in our research toolbox @pol4casting @FiveThirtyEight @PollyVote
The 3rd PoSSUM Poll is now live -- This poll shows a Popular Vote tie, which implies a likely Trump win in the electoral college ...(1/n)
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Our AI rethink of election polling is paying off! Election forecasters take note…@pol4casting
🤖📊The PoSSUM Poll is back ! Our 2nd Artificially Intelligent poll of the election, conducted around the dates of the Presidential Debate, has been published: -- here you find the updated technical report, the cross tabs and State level estimates ... 1/n
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@RobertoCerina & #T2M team Oxford created an AI pollster aka PoSSUM -- share estimates from X survey: Trump & Harris in a tie at 46% -- red arrow is us benched against others, note @elonmusk & @GaryMarcus social media polling can be scientific - details:
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