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Aidan Morrison
@QuixoticQuant
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Lapsed physicist turned entrepreneur and data scientist. Machine learning, modelling, economics, energy, defence. Energy program @CISOZ.
Sydney, New South Wales
Joined August 2017
This is my best effort to explain the essential truth about Australia's most prominent energy system model, @AEMO_energy's ISP, and the process that created it, in under an hour. Featuring @Bowenchris, @simonahac, @energybants, @clairlemon, @MickdeBrenni
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@unclepete_100 Funny thing is… I’m hearing crickets from the other side. Haven’t heard anyone serious engage at all. Not even to call me a heretic.
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Tom has relevant experience… in grids, and attempting to engage in debate about the ISP. The thread he shared here is a perfect example of why the ISP must be expunged from debate. We cannot allow fantasy to masquerade as fact any longer.
Sincere good luck establishing productive debate. In my last exchanges on the subject years ago, I'd had enough of personal attacks, badgering & sealioning. Yes, I am a nuclear advocate because I know it works, first hand, as first hand as one can get.
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Thanks Jae. More people must speak up. And yes, I probably shouldn't have indulged the 'bad-boy' take. I prefer 'footnotes guy'. But whenever you actually look at the footnotes, it forces you to come out swinging harder than most people think a 'nice guy' ever would.
I will be able to speak freely on the detail here in the very near future. And I will be. I have some big projects in the works, but for now I will just say that terms like ‘unbelievable scandal’ are if anything, understating, not overstating, the reality. I want to make three points about @QuixoticQuant: 1. The 'bad boy' framing is extremely unfair. Aidan is one of the most respectful and civilised in the energy debate in Australia. He is fairer than most - not a rusted-on nuclear bro, a staunch critic of SMRs, and he consistently concedes the challenges of a nuclear future in Aus. He always comes with evidence, and if he does identify people, it's always linked to a problem or evidence, not just a naked ad-hominem attack. There are much worse exponents of the latter on both sides of the debate. I would go as far to say that Aidan is one of the only good faith actors in the debate. And clearly, there is significant personal cost in occupying the position where even the slightest inquisition of the market bodies and climate movement gets you labelled as a dangerous, rabble-rousing heretic. If one was more interested in their personal financial or career interests, it would be far more rational to toe the party line, blindly cheerlead, and virtue signal to the top. Shut up and dribble. 2. He is one of, if not, the most rigorous and data-driven in the debate. In any other debate, the asymmetry between each sides’ quality and quantity of evidence would warrant a reversal of this status quo—where the evidence-driven side declares the hysterical side as ‘rabble-rousers’. It’s been almost 2 years since the first GenCost article was published on @DrCameronMurray FET, and there is still no substantive pushback on Aidan’s conclusions. No-one can refute any feature, or debunk any finding of what is now an extensive body of work at the @CISOZ. But because the conclusions drawn are so damning, and so many have so much sunk career cost in the renewables cheerleading team, it’s basically 'banish the whistleblower' at all costs. We have a situation where our energy system is guided by the virtue signalling and moral hope-ium from a professional activist class instead of evidence, at the cost of all Australians. 3. The ‘vested interests’ argument is nonsensical. Aidan is theoretical particle physicist, an entrepreneur and came from big data/machine learning before the energy space. I’m also in the NFP think tank space - it’s much less glamourous and scrappy as you might assume - and I would hazard a guess that Aidan could go and be much more handsomely compensated in the private sector to push ‘vested interests’ on both sides. I would guess that Aidan is making significant sacrifices in earning potential (relative to his skillset) and taking on significant career risk in doing this work in the public interest. The fact that the other side - including Aidan’s loudest public critic and literally a billionaire heirloom - label him the poster boy for dangerous vested interests is so disingenuous and lazy that it’s basically projecting at this point. You can feel the sense of frustration and helplessness here. We’re in a tragedy of the commons and there is very little safe space left for the muckrakers to coalesce. I truly hope Aidan is recognised in due time for his tremendous efforts and work, but also his courage.
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The Integrated System Plan from @AEMO_Energy is beyond salvage. It's worse than useless. It tells us NOTHING, other than what a bunch of politicians wish the future would be. It doesn't tell us what's affordable. It doesn't tell us what's reliable. It doesn't tell us what's optimal. It certainly doesn't tell us what's feasible. It cloaks plans that are none of those things - that came from politicians - in a livery that suggests it is independently determined by experts to be all of those things. The nail in the coffin is the 82% RE target for 2030. By forcing EVERY scenario to conform with that implausible ambition, the last claims of a useful degree of independence in the technical analysis have been removed. It is now completely divorced from reality, and entirely subservient to the politically determined policy ambitions of the government/s of the day. It cannot be called independent, or expert. This has utterly debased the debate. It's made it impossible to engage robustly and objectively (which requires distinguishing facts from fantasy) in a way that is evidence-based and civil, without appearing to suggest that others are completely ignorant, or partisan political hacks, and/or facing the same accusations in return. This is a disaster for the public discourse and an entirely untenable position for AEMO. If the greatest and fiercest policy debate of our time is to be fought this election on energy, our energy Market Bodies, such as AEMO cannot be perceived to be the sword and shield of a political party or policy agenda. That would fatally compromise the credibility, respect and perception of independence that they need to fulfil their statutory obligations for the good of energy consumers. It's my opinion that facts that are now public and recorded (but mostly still unnoticed, but they will be) make it inevitable that AEMO will be perceived this way. This situation can only be rectified if acknowledged and repudiated wholeheartedly from the highest levels of AEMO in a way that politicians and the general public cannot ignore. This should happen quickly, in order to prevent greater damage to the reputation of the organisation during the course of an election campaign. It MUST happen before the election, otherwise a change in government could lead to the Coalition demanding the same behaviour from AEMO, entrenching their status as a vassal of the government of the day. That would do permanent damage to AEMO's reputation and credibility, as the ISP flips from calling a renewables plan to a nuclear one 'optimal'. I must stress these views are entirely my own. I don't allege any ill-will or conspiracy. To the contrary, my heart goes out to the many people at AEMO and other market bodies who have done their very best, and acted with skill, care and professionalism. Their hard work may be tragically maligned by whatever follows. But with the ISP currently positioned as it is in debate, nothing can prevent attacks on the independence and integrity of AEMO as an institution escalating from here. In fact, efforts to pursue evidence-based, good public policy now demand it. This absurd situation can only be resolved by AEMO's own leadership. I hope @dfwesterman considers carefully.
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RT @cadlam: It is depressing to see Simon blindly endorse these disingenuous costing figures from the OCAA, which do not (perhaps intention…
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@LawleyEnergy Actually they suggest it makes little difference. The massive efficiency of heat-pump heating (assuming we electrify the smart way) is kinda equally cancelled out by the relatively poor gas-electricity conversion in an open cycle plant. Plus tx losses etc.
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