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Q3 Strategy Guide & CIO Commentary
In the wake of the BTC spot ETFs, the most striking phenomenon has been the size and scale of the Basis trade.
This year, selling the Spot-Forward Basis (i.e. buying spot and selling forward simultaneously to lock in the forward premium) has
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𝗤𝗖𝗣 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝟴 𝗝𝘂𝗹
1/ There's been much talk about the upcoming GBTC share unlocks which begin in earnest next week. We've discussed Grayscale and GBTC previously but would like to go into greater detail in the second part of this note
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QCP Market Update 22 Jan
1/ The broad price puke from yesterday has been blamed on some negative headlines out of Biden's new "crypto unfriendly" administration. However, we think that the market was already due for a correction
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Part 1: In the last few weeks, Bitcoin has made an impressive rally on the back of potential ETF approvals and just pushed to a 62,910 high on the back of the Valkyrie and Proshares approval. Here’s our take on the matter. 🧵
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1/ If anyone had any doubt that the crypto market is becoming institutional, our option desk traded over $2 billion in options just this week. 🧵
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6/ We maintain our view that there will be a squeeze (likely to the topside) as liquidity thins out into the holidays and into 2022. If this happens, owning wings would be very profitable.
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1/ Since our last update, crypto markets have been trading sideways. BTC in a 18,600-21,870 range and ETH between 997-1,280.
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1/ Here’s our market update! 👇
For more updates like this in a more timely fashion, do join our Telegram community!
Now, on to the thread! 🧵
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Here's the full version of the
@RealVision
interview with
@RaoulGMI
and QCP Capital, filmed in March 2021.
Don't hesitate to reach out to us if you have any questions!
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1/ The bullish force is strong throughout the crypto world. Once again we saw a post-month end rally pushing BTC from 50k support toward the 60k level. ETH has been even stronger making new highs daily in what seems to be an unstoppable rally into July’s catalyst event (EIP-1559)
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𝗤𝗖𝗣 𝗠𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽-𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗦𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀: 𝗙𝗶𝗮𝘁 & 𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 (Part 1 of 2)
𝟭𝟲 𝗔𝘂𝗴 𝟮𝟭
1/ 50 years ago, on Sunday 15 August 1971 Nixon took the US off Gold convertibility. This was arguably the single most important economic shift in modern economic history
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**MARKET ALERT: Funding turning negative on Chinese platforms on this spot move higher, peaking above 44% annualized on Bybit (Chart 1). Could potentially see more short squeeze if spot legs up higher.
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FLOW ALERT: Market aggressively paid for over 13,000x contracts of 8-Oct ETH puts since Asia Morning (Chart 1), front-end Risk Reversal skewed heavily towards puts once again (Chart 2).
We remain wary of ETH downside for any near-term potential leg down.
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1/ 𝗢𝘂𝗿 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗙𝗢𝗠𝗖 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗶𝗲𝘄
This was a hawkish meeting, there's no 2 ways about it.
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1/ 𝗖𝗣𝗜 𝗣𝗥𝗘𝗩𝗜𝗘𝗪
It's CPI day!
Today's CPI is a potential curveball for crypto markets that have found a stable base to start the year.
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𝗤𝗖𝗣 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝟮𝟲 𝗝𝘂𝗹𝘆
1/ We turned bullish last Wed but weren’t expecting the short squeeze to happen quite so soon! We’ve been pleasantly surprised by how supported the market was after Wednesday & sentiment flipped decisively bullish into the weekend
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1/ Hello from Miami! Point-form summary this week with some insights from our meeting with Paul Tudor Jones. 👇🧵
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1/ Crypto prices have taken a bearish turn, with BTC down to 20,760 lows and ETH to 1,523 lows overnight. This is a sharp 17.7% for BTC and 25% correction for ETH in less than a week (from recent highs of 25,215 and 2,032 respectively).
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1/ Strong economic data lifted markets across the board. BTC traded to a 24,945 high and ETH is currently making new highs, inching towards the 2,000 level.
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2021 has been an eventful year for the crypto space, and a year of tremendous growth for us.
As we step into 2022, we'd like to share our year-end research piece with you! 👇
We hope 2021 has been a great year for you. Here's to a happy new year! 🎉
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1/ Hello! Here’s our market update for 26 March 2022. Before we begin, a friendly reminder to join our Telegram Community 👇
Let’s get started ✏️
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1/ Hello everyone! We are back with another market update for 29 May 2022. Let’s begin 🧵
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1/ Hello everyone! Here’s our market update for 31 Aug 22 🧵
Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech last Friday was clearly directed at markets - just 1300 words that took him 8 minutes to read.
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𝗤𝗖𝗣 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝟮𝟴 𝗝𝘂𝗹𝘆
1/ Another try at breaking 40k-42k in BTCUSD today despite Amazon’s firm denial of the rumors about them accepting crypto as a mode of payment
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𝗤𝗖𝗣 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝟭𝟱 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲
1/ The market looks like it's long gamma with BTC being pinned around the 40k level as we await FOMC headlines tomorrow. We agree with Paul Tudor Jones that this coming FOMC meeting will likely have a binary market reaction
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1/ Markets are abuzz with BTC up 16% since the start of the week. The market is hopeful Q4 this year will repeat the 180% rally we saw in Q4 last year.
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𝗤𝗖𝗣 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝟮𝟰 𝗔𝘂𝗴
1/ BTC edged above the 50k level yesterday in Asia morning, a key level that BTC has not closed above since the crash on 12 May.
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𝗤𝗖𝗣 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝟵 𝗝𝘂𝗻
1/ The Wave 3 sell-off turned out deeper & sharper than we had initially expected - falling all the way from $59,600 on 9 May to the $30k support level within 10 days, bottoming at the big figure on 19 May
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1/ Since our last update on 10 November. BTC went from a 69,000 high to a 58,638 low today (-15%) and ETH has gone from a 4,868 high to a 4,108 low today (-15.6%).
A series of negative factors could be the reason for this sell-off. Here’s a quick timeline. 🧵
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1/ The violent sell-off on Saturday saw BTC trade to 42,333 lows, a hefty 39% drawdown from 69,000 highs. 🧵👇
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1/ BTC has been trading in a 53,500 - 58,000 range since the big run-up last week. It’s also been noticeably outperforming ETH and most altcoins.
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1/ Feb 2021 ends on a very weak note, with BTC about 26% down from the high of 58370 (21 Feb). But to put things in perspective, this month is still set to be the largest absolute monthly gain in BTC history. This also means the market is still sitting on huge unrealized profits
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1/ Right after a massive Friday Deribit month-end option expiry, Elon Musk released a cryptic (somewhat bullish) tweet, causing a huge squeeze higher in BTC price. This closed out a strange week in markets marked by social media-engineered squeezes in tickers like GME & DOGE.
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Excited to be a part of $WOO
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* 9 active DOVs:
@ribbonfinance
@ThetaNuts
@StakeDAOHQ
@Tap_Finance
@Katana_HQ
@friktion_labs
@chestfinance
@Opium_Network
@sirenprotocol
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1/ In the last 2 weeks the Kimchi premium returned with a vengeance reaching over 20% the highest level we’ve seen since 2017-18. While restricted travel is a major contributing factor to the arb, one cannot ignore the buying frenzy in the Korean retail market especially in Alts
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The BTC ETF approval by the SEC and successful launch of the Proshares ETF ($BITO) has fueled a strong rally in BTC beyond the 64,900 previous high to a new all-time high of 67,000. 🧵
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1/ Hello everyone. Here’s our market update for 12 July 2022 🧵👇
In the past week, crypto prices have tested the upperside of the recent range with BTC trading up to 22,490 and ETH to 1,275.
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1/ We’re back with another market update! (9 Jan 2021)
Before we begin, we would like to invite you to join our Telegram community for updates like this! 👍
Let’s begin! 🧵
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𝗤𝗖𝗣 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝟯𝟬 𝗝𝘂𝗻
1/ Positive start to the week as we enter the second half of 2020 with promising bounce off the lows.
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𝗤𝗖𝗣 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝟭𝟵 𝗠𝗮𝘆
1/ We cannot stress enough the importance of holding 40k on a closing basis in BTC for all Crypto. Following our identification of the trend change earlier in the month we're now seeing Wave 3 take us from 58k to under 40k handle now
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1/ Greetings everyone! We hope everyone has been doing fine. A reminder that the release of our quarterly series, Just Crypto, is coming soon.
In the meantime, here’s our market update for 21 June 2022 🧵
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5/ We reckon the market is getting complacent as spot ranges compress in this 45,500 - 49,500 channel. And now would be a great time to buy some wings (far strikes).
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𝗤𝗖𝗣 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝟯 𝗔𝘂𝗴
1/ “...our sense is that the market will look to trade within this 30-40k range..”
Our guess was right! And we’re still keeping with this view for now
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The pattern this month thus far has been for Tuesdays to mark the range swing highs & lows
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𝗤𝗖𝗣 𝗔𝗹𝗲𝗿𝘁 𝟭𝟱-𝗠𝗮𝘆
1/2
- Massive BTC downside (puts) was bought in NY session today
- Trade details: 46k and 45k strikes, 21-May and 28-May expiries respectively, almost 3,000 BTC worth in total (that's more than 125 million USD notional!)
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1/ 𝗤𝗨𝗜𝗖𝗞 𝗖𝗣𝗜 𝗣𝗥𝗘𝗩𝗜𝗘𝗪
Tonight's CPI is being treated by markets as another watershed event, even if the Fed is only looking at it as just another in a series of prints to formulate their policy.
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1/ Some excitement to start the week on Monday with the leaked Walmart partnership with Litecoin which turned out to be fake news. BTC rallied to a high of 46,900 then quickly dipped to 43,465. Sign of a market starving for a directional catalyst.
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6/ However after the BTC top 2 weeks ago, the strength in US hours has lost momentum for the first time. This is a clear sign of exhaustion in demand from the US institutions and corporates who have been the primary drivers of this bull run
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QCP Market Update 21 Jun
1/ Two things today:
𝟭. 𝗢𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝘄𝗲 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲.
The FOMC meeting last week had hawkish sentiments that the market wasn't expecting or pricing into the June meeting
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1/ As expected we saw 14Apr Coinbase top we positioned for that bled into a deleveraging weekend selloff that smashed through both parabolic & channel trendlines. Our favorite trade last week was short Jun futures basis at 40-50% annualized implied premium looking to cover at par
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𝗤𝗖𝗣 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝟮𝟭-𝗝𝘂𝗹
1/ Roller-coaster price action in the week so far, starting with a slide lower on Sunday from 32,450 highs in BTC . The move down started in Asia afternoon and seems to have been triggered by one or all of the following factors:
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1/QCP Market Update - 27 Jan 23
In the blink of an eye, the first month-end option expiry of 2023 is here.
Market conditions are drastically different from the bearishness we saw in Q4 2022. The options market in its current state makes it seem like FTX never happened at all!
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𝗤𝗖𝗣 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝟬𝟮 𝗦𝗲𝗽
1/ This week, ETHBTC cross started moving towards our 0.0850 target level [view from 03 Aug Market Update
The outsized move higher in ETHUSD has been largely spot and vol driven (rather than leverage in futures)
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10/ Now we are keeping very nimble. Long wings all round and short small ETH vol against long vol in the Altcoins (which is now a very long list from new DOVs such as AVAX, NEAR, SOL, mSOL, 1INCH, ADA and FTM).
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𝗤𝗖𝗣 𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝟮𝟮 𝗙𝗲𝗯
1/ We're well into the 5th wave of the BTC rally from the March lows now - a wave characterized by declining volumes versus the prior 3rd wave, as nobody wants to sell here at euphoric fresh all-time high after high
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1/ FLOW ALERT
Large demand for ETH long-dated call options, including low-delta OTM calls (10-50k strikes), heavily focused in March 15k Calls (Chart 1). Longer dated implied vols have rallied over 10% past three days (Chart 2) with significant skew favoring calls (Chart 2).
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We are actively pricing options on $DOGE, $SOL, $LUNA, $ALGO and many more.
If you’d like to trade altcoin options, reach out to us at
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1/ 𝗙𝗢𝗠𝗖 𝗨𝗡𝗣𝗔𝗖𝗞𝗜𝗡𝗚
No immediate surprises on Wednesday with the 25bp rate hike and no shocking statements from Powell. The market reacted positively as a result.
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1/ Fresh off the release of the 2nd edition of our monthly, The Crypto Circular, here’s our market update for today! (3 Mar)
Do remember to drop a like, follow us, and join our Telegram Community for more timely updates like this 👇
Let’s get started ✏️
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𝗤𝗖𝗣 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝟭𝟲 𝗝𝘂𝗹𝘆
1/ We started the week with a sell-off in both BTC and ETH ahead of the June CPI print with the market fearing a high number. The inflation print came in at a very high 5.4% which saw the market sell off even more.
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1/ Market has been trading sideways but in a wide price range. A 4,600 point range in BTC (40,600-45200) and a 450 point range in ETH (2,735-3,185). 🧵
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𝗤𝗖𝗣 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝟭𝟬 𝗔𝘂𝗴
1/ A bullish self-reinforcing cycle seems to have developed in ETH. The dynamic is as follows:
- ETH spot rallied, pricing in the impact of EIP-1559. (85% price increase from the 1718 low in July)
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1/ As expected, BTC is taking a breather after being stretched at new highs (67,000). ETH tested the previous high (4,385) and has come back off as well. BTC has broken below 60,000 and ETH has broken below 4,000.
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1/ It’s that time again, for another market update! (12 Jan 2022) ⏰
And our regular friendly reminder to join our Telegram community for more timely updates like this:
Now, let’s get started! 🧵
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1/ Even in these uncertain times, we're committed to unlocking liquidity as a major market maker. We remain the number one maker on
@tradeparadigm
for the second month in a row with more than $1.16b in volume.
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5/ The fact that the market is so focussed on something like this just shows the lack of real catalysts or market moving events right now & strengthens our conviction in our short 30/40k strangle view- which we like even more now. We expect volatility to remain under pressure..
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𝗤𝗖𝗣 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝟮𝟭 𝗦𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟭
1/ “We think that the market will start paying attention (to macro factors) again towards Q4…” - 08 Sep 21 broadcast
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1/ In our last update (02 Sep 21), we indicated potential downside risk from the negative risk reversals (puts more expensive than calls indicating downside nervousness). These levels worsened as we broke above the 52k level in BTC. This was strange behaviour for a bullish market
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Our Co-Founder and CIO,
@dariussitzl
, had the pleasure of meeting a living legend in
@ptj_official
today!
During their chat, they touched on the state of
#crypto
and
#DeFi
! We look forward to meeting more groundbreakers in time to come!
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Part 2: The following are some of our thoughts and market views about what might follow on from the Bitcoin ETF approvals: 🧵
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1/ We had previously shared that we had assets held with FTX. However, we have sufficient equity to absorb the impairment from the position.
The impairment does not impact our clients nor our counterparties. Withdrawals remain open and trading continues as usual.
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1/ Like many of our friends and partners in the space, we are deeply saddened by the recent developments regarding FTX. While we had active trading positions on FTX, we were able to successfully withdraw a substantial amount of assets as we unwound our positions there.
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Our Founder & CIO
@dariussitzl
has been named in
@FintechNation
's Fintech65 list as one of Singapore's 65 top
#fintech
leaders in the
#web3
and
#blockchain
category 🇸🇬
Thank you for this honour 🙏
Full list here:
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𝗤𝗖𝗣 𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗔𝗹𝗲𝗿𝘁 𝟮𝟲-𝗝𝘂𝗻
BTC: DeMark Daily 9-13-9 Reversal targeting 39,400
ETH: DeMark Daily 9-13-9 Reversal targeting 2,550
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2/ Last week, the desk took on the largest amount of option buying ever. And in spite of the spot rally post-FOMC, vols trickled lower
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1/ All-time highs all around this week with BTC and ETH trading to 69,000 and 4,868 respectively, taking total crypto market capitalisation above $3 trillion.
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11/ We are now long gamma (short-term options) in both ETH and Alts and hoping for some explosive short-covering in the coming week. SRM calls have performed well for us this week as spot rallied almost 70% on positive developments around the DEX.
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7/ ..followed by a rally possibly on the back of the EIP-1559 mainnet implementation (long spot, long calls), and then the larger Q4 Wave 5 selloff on the Fed's taper (sell spot, buy downside risk reversals)
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1/ It’s time for our market update! ⏰
We hope everyone you’ve had a wonderful holiday season with your friends and family ✨
If you’d like more regular updates like this, do join our Telegram community:
Now, on to the thread! 🧵
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5/ Signs of institutional exhaustion:
We've done a timezone analysis which breaks down BTC moves into Asia hours vs. US hours (12 hours each). Since March last year, the clear pattern has been relentless US buying while Asian whales and miners have been on the offer
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3/ This week, we continued to take on huge option buying flows (including the 22,500 ETH calls bought on Monday morning)
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1/ As the team heads off to
@TheBitcoinConf
2022 in Miami, here’s our market update for 2 April 2022. ✍️
Before we begin, don’t forget to join our Telegram Community for more updates in a timely fashion:
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Despite the bearish spot action in the last 24hrs, BTC vols are getting heavily sold suggesting that the risk of a runaway move has been discounted by the market. This is quite supportive for spot
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1/ It’s that time of the week again! We hope your new year has been off to a great start!
For more market updates in a more timely fashion, do join our Telegram community👇
Now, let’s get to it 🧵
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1/ 𝗤𝗖𝗣 𝗠𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽-𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲
"As the crypto ecosystem continues to develop into the application and interaction layer on top of the fiat-based monetary system, our view is that we are really just getting started"
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1/ BTC has rallied by 20% and ETH 27% since we posted our month-end Crypto Circular last week ().
To re-iterate, we formed a bullish view February for two keys reasons:
1. Moderation of market expectations for Fed hikes
2. Positive seasonality in February
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3/ We think this dip is largely the result of market positioning. Long crypto has been become a crowded consensus trade and a correction was bound to happen, the negative headlines were just an excuse for longs to unwind
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14/ We are watching for a significant reversal in Tesla which has also been the poster child for BofA's next most consensus US Tech trade (Chart : BTC vs TSLA). A coordinated move lower by BTC, Gold & Tesla will signal to us a liquidity worry for the market
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1/ Markets stabilised across the board on the news of Evergrande making some coupon payments.
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7/ The post-FOMC rally allowed us to take profit on some of our long delta (long spot) and long gamma (short-term options) positions.
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We were recently ranked
#1
Market Maker for Q2 2023 on
@tradeParadigm
- where we also topped the leaderboard for 4 months consecutively! 🎉
Thanks to our clients, colleagues and supporters for helping us get there, and especially our close partner
@tradeparadigm
for the
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1/ It was exactly a year ago today, on Valentine's day 2020 that the market topped and eventually bled into the March 12th Black Thursday sell-off.
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6/ until mid-late Aug and for 1m implied vol to return to the long-term 50-60% range, where we will flip to vol buyers again. Right now our trading plan follows the 2018 BTC Analog - where we expect a dampened trading environment from here to Aug (short vol)..
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4/ BofA Hartnett's publication on Tuesday officially showed BTC overtaking US Tech as the hottest consensus trade in the market. While we’re not expecting a crash similar to 2018 this time, we see this as further evidence that price is likely to be capped at least until end of Q1
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