PVI Guy ✯
@PviGuy
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Posting maps of each state's Partisan Voter Index for every election
Joined July 2020
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Pinned Tweet
#ElectionTwitter
I've created a new metric called the County Power Index, or CPI, which measures the percentage of a state's total votes that each county casts.
@kilometerbryman
and
@lxeagle17
have helped me to make this map of CPI for every state in the country.
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As I've mentioned before, ethnic identity used to be a highly salient issue for White voters. For example, FDR's opposition to Nazi Germany caused a substantial number of German-Americans to defect to the GOP in the 1940 election.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a map of the percentage of ethnic French by county, according to the 1980 census. The most French area was Vermilion parish in Louisiana, which was 55% French.
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#ElectionTwitter
Despite the fact that FDR was one of the most popular presidents in US history, several counties still voted against him in all 4 of his elections. Here's a map of how these ancestrally Republican counties voted in the 2020 election.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a dot map of the 2020 presidential election in the US. Biden managed to win the popular vote by dominating in the most populous states like California and New York, while Trump was unable to get enough votes out of Texas or Florida to overcome him.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a map of how each state's congressional delegation voted on approving the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1993.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a map of the swing by county from 1964-1976. Jimmy Carter did substantially better than LBJ in the South while doing worse in regions such as the Northeast.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a map of how each state's congressional delegation voted on the Immigration Act of 1965, which eliminated quotas established in 1924 and opened Asian immigration.
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During the 1984 presidential election, New Hampshire voted 13 points more Republican than Mississippi.
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#ElectionTwitter
In this thread, I'll discuss the impact that the World Wars had on German-American voting patterns (fyi, this is an extremely long thread).
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a map of how each state's congressional delegation voted on the Equal Pay Act of 1963, which prohibited wage discrimination against women.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a map of how each state's congressional delegation voted on the 1965 Voting Rights Act.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a map of how each state's congressional delegation voted on the Civil Rights Act of 1957 which was the first law of its kind passed since Reconstruction and empowered the federal government to enforce school desegregation and voting rights.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a map of the swing by county from 1952-1964. LBJ made massive gains in traditionally Republican areas of the Northeast, while the Solid South flipped to the GOP over backlash against the Civil Rights Act.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a map of how each department swung from the 2017-2022 French presidential elections. Emmanuel Macron lost ground everywhere, with his steepest decline occurring in the south-central region.
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POV: the GOP just banned beer
right-wingers being anti-beer is how Democrats win back the German vote
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#ElectionTwitter
The area known as the "German Triangle"in North Dakota, which was inhabited by Volga German immigrants, voted 73% for FDR in 1932 but in 1944 the Democratic party only received 33% of the vote in this region.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a map of how each state's congressional delegation voted on the Affordable Care Act of 2010, also known as Obamacare.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's why Illinois used to be a swing state during the mid-twentieth century:
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a map of how each state's congressional delegation voted on the welfare reform legislation of 1996, which limited welfare benefits and required most recipients to get jobs.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a map of the average PVI for each state during the Fourth Party System from 1896-1928. The reddest state in the country was Vermont at R+38, while the bluest state was South Carolina at D+100.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a map showing how each state's congressional delegation voted on declaring war against Japan in 1941.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a map of how each state's congressional delegation voted on the 1964 Civil Rights Act.
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#ElectionTwitter
According to polling, the national environment is now R+8. Here's what that would look like based on PVI, if each state experienced the same 12 point swing that VA and NJ did:
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a map of how each state's congressional delegation voted on the Social Security Act of 1935.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a map of how each state's congressional delegation voted on the Indian Removal Act of 1830, which declared that Native Americans east of the Mississippi River were to be moved to new lands in the west.
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#ElectionTwitter
As this graph shows, Georgia is currently divided 50/50 between Democrats & Republicans because the GOP pulls slightly greater margins from red areas while the Democrats have slightly more voters in blue areas.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a map of the 1958 Senate elections by county. An economic recession, the successful launch of Sputnik by the Soviets, and the Eisenhower administration's support for "right to work" policies led to the Republicans losing 13 seats that year.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a map of the trend by state from 2004 to 2020. The state that trended Democratic the most was Utah, which shifted 18 points, while West Virginia was the state that trended Republican the most with a 31 point shift.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a map of the average PVI by county during the Fourth Party System of 1896-1928, also known as the Progressive Era. During this period, the Democrats were strong in the South and the West, while Republicans dominated in the Northeast and Midwest.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a map of how Abraham Lincoln's vote share in changed by county from 1860-64 in the North. Lincoln lost a lot of ground in the Northeast as a result of anti-war backlash, but was able to improve in parts of the Midwest.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a dot map of the swing in raw votes by county between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections in Florida. Trump netted a colossal 200K votes in Miami that swamped the swings to Biden in other urban areas and caused the state to shift to the GOP.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a map of how the congressional delegation in each state voted on the 1986 Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act, which imposed sanctions on South Africa for discriminating against its Black citizens.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a map of how the congressional delegation in each state voted on making Martin Luther King jr a national holiday in 1983.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a map of how well Socialist party candidate Eugene Debs did in each county in the 1912 presidential election. He won 6% of the popular vote, which is the best performance for a Socialist in American history.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a graph of the Catholic vote by year. Catholics used to be overwhelmingly Democratic, but since the 1960s they have become a swing vote in presidential elections.
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#ElectionTwitter
I've created an interactive Google Map of the places both John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon visited during the 1960 campaign!
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a map of how each state's congressional delegation voted on the 1956 Federal Aid Highway Act, which authorized $25 billion for constructing 41,000 miles of the Interstate Highway System.
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@Breakfast4Dinn6
I meant total population of voters in 2020. I probably should have specified
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a map of how each state's congressional delegation voted on the failed Equal Rights Amendment in 1972, which was intended to strengthen equality for women under the Constitution. It passed Congress, but was three states short of ratification.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a map of the percentage of Jews by county in 1952, according to a survey conducted by the National Council of Churches. The most Jewish place in the US at the time was Brooklyn, which was 58% Jewish.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a dot map of the 1980 presidential election in Hawaii. Despite the fact that Ronald Reagan won Honolulu, Jimmy Carter managed to achieve a narrow victory in the state through winning the other counties by large enough margins to offset this.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a map of each county that swung more than 10 points to the Democrats from 2004-2012. Bush-Obama voters were prevalent in counties that were either majority-minority or suburban.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a map of the congressional vote in the House of Representatives for declaring war on Germany in 1917. Many of the NO votes came from congressmen in the Midwest who represented districts with sizeable German-American populations.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a map of how the congressional delegation for each state voted on the Iraq Resolution of 2003, which authorized the use of military force against the regime of Saddam Hussein.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a map of the congressional vote in the House of Representatives for passing the 19th amendment to the US Constitution, which gave women the right to vote. Many of the NO votes came from Southern districts.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a map of the percentage of ethnic Italians by county according to the 1980 census. The county with the most Italians was Staten Island, at 38% of the population.
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#ElectionTwitter
To demonstrate why Georgia is more promising for Democrats than North Carolina, here are 2 graphs comparing the political trends in both states to each other:
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Even before the 1960s, the South was experiencing a racist backlash against Dems, as this swing map of 1948-60 shows. This wasn't due to trade policies, but because of the support of national party figures for policies such as desegregating the armed forces.
Yeah, this is the textbook definition of "economic anxiety", isn't it?
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a map of what the ethnic background is for each majority-Catholic county in the United States.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a map of how each state's congressional delegation voted on the Social Security Amendments of 1965, which created Medicare and Medicaid.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a map comparing the 2022 gubernatorial elections in each state to the 2020 presidential results, adjusted for PVI. The best performing Democrat was Joy Hofmeister in Oklahoma, while the strongest Republican was Phil Scott in Vermont.
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#ElectionTwitter
While nothing can surpass the level of racial/ethnic polarization in the South today, there is one historical place that can rival it: North Dakota during WW2. The GOP was able to win Volga Germans by Assad-level margins, while FDR was strong with Norwegians.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a map comparing how the ballot initiative to enshrine collective bargaining into state law in IL did compared to Tammy Duckworth's margin by county. The pro-union vote did much better in southern Illinois, while it underperformed in the Chicago suburbs.
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#ElectionTwitter
During the 1940s, the Democratic party saw such colossal hemorrhaging with German voters that the northwestern portion of the state which had formed their base became the most Republican part of the state. Left image is 1896, right image is 1944.
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#ElectionTwitter
: Here's why California was a battleground state during the mid-twentieth century:
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a swing map comparing the 2022 gubernatorial election in Wisconsin to that of 2018. Tony Evers' biggest gains were in the suburbs around Milwaukee, which have a large amount of college-educated voters.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a thread on some of the most anti-Catholic areas in American history. I'll examine the 1928 and 1960 election results provided by
@Mill226
and compare them to religious maps made by
@politicsmaps
to show which counties saw the largest religious backlash.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a map comparing the NO vote on the Kansas abortion referendum to Joe Biden's margin by county. The pro-choice vote outran Biden by around 30 points in the state, with the largest difference being 61 points in Greenwood county.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a map of how each state's congressional delegation voted on the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882, which prohibited all immigration of Chinese laborers into the country.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a map of how each state's congressional delegation voted on the Federal Assault Weapons Ban of 1994.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a map of the trend by state from 1932 to 1944 over the course of FDR's presidency. The New Deal helped to swing the industrial Midwest and Appalachia to the Democrats, while WW2 caused Germans in the Midwest to trend sharply towards the Republicans.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a map of the average margin by county in each state during the New Deal era of 1932-1948. During this period, the Democrats dominated in the South and West while the Republicans retained some strength in the Northeast and Midwest.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a dot map of the 1961 Senate special election in Texas, in which John Tower became the first Republican to win a Senate election in the former Confederacy since Reconstruction. Tower barely won by dominating in suburban areas like Houston & Dallas.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a dot map of the 1976 presidential election in California. Gerald Ford narrowly won the Golden State by running up large margins in Orange county and San Diego, while remaining competitive in LA and the Bay Area.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a dot map for Alaska that I made which shows the margin in votes that each borough was won by. Alaska remains a solid red state because the GOP is able to rack up thousands of votes in the areas around Anchorage as well as in Fairbanks.
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#ElectionTwitter
WW1 was so unpopular with the Volga Germans in North Dakota that they overwhelmingly voted for Warren G. Harding in 1920. Perhaps as much as 90% of ethnic Germans in the state voted Republican in protest against Woodrow Wilson's foreign policy.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a map of the most Democratic counties in each state during the 1968 presidential election. Then bluest county in the country was Duval in Texas, which voted 89% for Hubert Humphrey.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a map of the most Democratic county in each state during the 1964 presidential election. The bluest county in the country was Duval in Texas, which voted 93% for LBJ.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a map that I made of the percentage of German-Americans by county according to the 1980 census. County with the most ethnic Germans in the country was McIntosh county, ND, which had a population that was 92% German.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a map of the 1944 presidential election in Arizona by congressional district. Franklin D. Roosevelt won both districts by double digits, with AZ-01 (Maricopa county) voting for FDR by 13 points while AZ-02 (rest of Arizona) voted Dem by 21 points.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a map of the change in GOP vote share by county from 1948-1960. While support for the Republicans declined in the Northeast and many majority-Catholic areas, Nixon made enormous gains in the South compared to Thomas Dewey's performance 12 years before.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a regression graph that I made comparing the % of ethnic Germans by county in ND to the % of votes that Wendell Wilkie won in 1940. The 2 variables are extremely correlated, as it appears that about 90% of Germans in ND voted red in opposition to WW2.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a dot map that I made for the 1960 presidential election in Hawaii. JFK squeaked out a victory in the state by a margin of 115 votes despite winning only 1 county. This is because he won Honolulu, where the majority of the state's population resided.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a dot map by state of the 2004 election, the last one the Republicans won a majority of the popular vote in. Bush accomplished this by netting a substantial amount of votes from states like TX and GA while keeping his losses narrow in CA and IL.
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In 1920, 38% of Jews voted for Socialist Eugene Debs, while only 19% supported Democrat John Cox. Many Jews at the time were involved in the Socialist movement, and they were cracked down on by the Wilson administration during the Red Scare.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a map of the swing by county from the 2016 Senate race in Wisconsin to that of 2022. Mandela Barnes did significantly better than Russ Feingold in the Milwaukee suburbs, but did worse in most of the rural areas in the state.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a map of how each state's congressional delegation voted on the War Powers Act of 1973, which limited presidential autonomy in sending US troops abroad.
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#ElectionTwitter
When
@Mill226
's swing map of 2008-2012 is compared to the location of active coal mines, it becomes apparent that Obama lost a lot of support with coal miners in Appalachia, southern Illinois & Indiana, and western Kentucky.
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#ElectionTwitter
Until the mid-20th century, Staten Island used to be a solid Democratic area. This changed in 1940, when the island shifted 20 points towards the Republican party. This change occurred at the same time as WW2, meaning opposition to war w/ Italy might be behind it
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#ElectionTwitter
Here is a map of which religious denomination had the most adherents by county according to a 1952 survey by the National Council of Churches.
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#ElectionTwitter
One major problem that Democrats face is that since 2012, 5 new states have become more Republican than the national vote while zero new states have become blue-leaning. This has led the GOP to have a sizeable advantage in the Electoral College and the Senate.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a dot map of the swing by raw votes in each county in Michigan from 2016-2020. Biden gained a substantial amount of votes in the Detroit metro area and Grand Rapids that far outmatched the increased margins that Trump got from rural counties.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a dot map of the swing in raw votes by county in Texas from 2016-2020. Democrats made substantial gains in urban areas, causing GOP margins in the state to shrink even more. However, Trump gained votes in places like the RGV and exurbs like as well.
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#ElectionTwitter
Here's a map of the average margin by county in each state during the Third Party System of 1860-1892. Republicans were strong w/ Yankee WASPS, Blacks & Unionist Whites in the South, while Democrats dominated with pro-Confederate Southerners & Catholic immigrants
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