Krishna Hegde
@PositiveGamma
Followers
5,788
Following
638
Media
207
Statuses
7,070
FinTech, Markets, India, Food, Asia. Trust Only Data. Bengaluru Boy. Farmer. hegde.eth
Joined August 2014
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Bajaj Finance Rajeev Jain on competition from fintechs - "Show me a $1bn balance sheet fintech. There are none. There may be $1bn valuation fintech - but not $1bn balance sheet"
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Google Reviews section always has some gems. Eg. Ikea Bangalore review :-)
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My mother's Rs.10k deposit is more valuable for the bank than my Rs.10k deposit!
As per RBI's new draft circular on Liquidity Coverage Ratio, accounts WITH UPI/mobile/internet banking access have a much higher run-off factor than accounts without such access to withdraw money.
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Indian fintech investors now have a new valuation benchmark. 2.55 million high quality credit card customers, Rs.40k cr of CASA, wealth+private banking AUA of Rs.1.1 lakh crores. Plus some other assets. Total value -
$1.8 bn.
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Most commentary about Bangalore flooding are from portion of the city where construction happened on lake beds/natural water flow paths because people made a choice to buy/rent houses/office space constructed thus. Rest of the city (90%+ by area & population!), is totally fine.
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Indian mutual funds are releasing stress test results - on how many days it will take for them to liquidate 25% & 50% of their portfolio (especially important in small caps where liquidity is limited).
Approach reminds me of the math problem "There are 10 birds on a wire. You
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RBI announced that it would provide retail investors online access to government security (G-Sec) markets & open their gilt securities account with RBI directly. What is changing? Why is this a big deal? What are implications? A 🧵
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Every 2 months, a new person calls from the bank branch where I have an account, says
'Hi, I am your new relationship manager. Do you have any issues? Do you have any banking needs? Please store my number.'
I have now started storing number in format 'RM Name Bank Name MMM-YY'
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The breakthrough fintech product of 2022 will be bank fixed deposits - with the tagline - better returns than trading on Zerodha ;-)
Nithin Kamath, CEO Zerodha (Today's ET) :
reality is less than 1% of active traders earn more money than a bank fixed deposit over a 3-year period.
Perhaps Zerodha should do a collaboration with Twitter to understand how near 100% of traders on TWTR do so well
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SBI Cards presentation & analyst call transcript are a must read for those involved in Indian unsecured lending.
SBI Cards is slowing customer acquisition, cutting credit limits on chunks of customers & is monitoring portfolios super closely.
While credit costs have been
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Yotta, an Indian data center company wants to go public via a SPAC merger - at an implied valuation of >$4 bn. Presentation is worth a read - to understand the mechanics of the industry, financing structures & assumptions.
For reference, Yotta is part
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Namma Yatri, a ride sharing app for autos is clocking 60k+ rides per day in just Bangalore.
Amazing user experience. It has taken <2 mins to get an auto to confirm & wait time is under 5 mins with less than 10% cancellations.
All drivers accept Cash & UPI. Try it out.
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I worked at Lehman NY in 2008 & had a ringside view to the global financial crisis as it happened.
The last seven days in crypto have been crazier than Sep 2008.
Unfortunately, it probably only gets worse from here.
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Just tried investing in CRED Mint. Amazing user journey & super simple to invest!
Excited to announce CRED mint. Our first community product built on trust. You can now earn up-to 9% interest, while investing in other trustworthy CRED members.
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Finally got a chance to check out
@bounce_infinity
. Thanks to the rockstar
@vivekanandahr
!
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Over the last 12 months, Indians lost more money in IPOs than in crypto.
One of them is heavily regulated.
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2022:
Parent to Byju's: Please cancel subscription. I was missold & I can't afford.
Byju's: Sorry. You signed up for it. Pay up.
2023:
Byju's to Davidson Kempner: Please cancel loan. I don't need this.
DK: Sorry. You signed up for it. Pay up in full.
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"You are the average of the five people you spend the most time with" - Jim Rohn
If you suffer a bad culture because it pays well, you’ll soon become affected by it.
“And if you gaze for long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also into you”
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ICICI Bank's annual mega presentation on Digital Banking is out. Great weekend read!
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Many people in India take loans because they don't have a savings buffer to handle fluctuations in expenditure vs income. Could be school fees paid annually, a wedding in the family or a medical expense. Saying people shouldn't take loans/consumption loans is an elitist view.
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ICICI Bank analyst day ppt is a monster. 220 pg with 🤯 visualisations.
Worth a read for all.
a. Fintechs: Check if you are getting disrupted
b. Other banks: Check what is needed for feature parity
c. Everyone else: Check if you should switch banks
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You know Bangalore has fully opened up when you see
@bounceshare
bikes parked wrongly on busy roads and blocking footpaths.
@peakbengaluru
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ICICI Bank Analyst day presentation is a must read for anyone looking at Indian fin serv. Some of the winners in neo-banking may well be the fast moving incumbents.
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PMS vs MF is a question that becomes more interesting post capital gains tax changes.
Under previous CG regime, a high churn PMS needed to generate 2% higher annual return to offset drag of tax outflows.
Under new CG regime, same PMS will need 3.5% higher annual return to
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Psyched to join
@nikhilkumarks
,
@sahilkini
& the awesome Setu team to enable millions more to get access to formal financial services.
Super excited to welcome
@PositiveGamma
to join our mission at Setu. We onboarded him remotely today, inspite of the lockdown, because that's how much we like him! 😝🤟🚀
Let's do the jolly sirs! 🕺
@PositiveGamma
@sahilkini
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Waking up to see your labour of love feature in
@andymukherjee70
's analysis is a special feeling.
I believe, by 2025, >25% of Indian bank term deposits will be made outside bank platforms. Last week was just the first step. Now, next challenge beckons.
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Bajaj Finance throwing down the gauntlet to a number of Indian fintechs.
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If this doesn't convince you to support Zerodha &
@Nithin0dha
, nothing will. Walking the talk & how!!
Indian businessmen have shown a hundred different ways to beat the system :(.
When someone succeeds the right way, it should be a matter of pride to all.
We believe that building sustainable businesses & paying taxes is a great step in contributing to society and the nation. We take great pride that we are giving back most of our success through
@RainmatterOrg
& that we are among the highest tax-paying new-age businesses. 7/7
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In 2021, I launched term deposits on APIs in India. Any fintech platform could offer safe bank deposits.
Most rejected the idea.
GooglePay tried it out. It was a huge success before a premature shutdown.
Life has come a full circle. Many platforms will offer bank FDs soon.
Indian banks to gain $36 billion in deposits as funds get taxed
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In Feb 16, I switched industries, geographies & type of company! Moved from being a sellside credit analyst @ Barclays SGP to member of founding team of Paytm Payments Bank in India. Thanks to
@vijayshekhar
for the opportunity. Been an awesome 5y in the Indian fintech ecosystem!
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Prashant Jain continues to surprise with his brilliance.
Only fund manager in India I have seen who declares fund returns on an after tax basis!
3P India Equity Fund delivered a return of 42 percent since May 4, 2023, far outpacing Nifty 50’s 24 percent and Nifty 200’s 31
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RBI action on
@Paytm
is clearly huge. Now that the hot takes are done, it is clear that Paytm will need to transition model & partner with multiple banks (instead of inhouse bank).
Knowing
@vijayshekhar
+ team, they will bounce back from the setback, even stronger & resilient.
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Alternate headline: PhonePe's investors coughed up Rs.8,000 crores in taxes because they thought company would get a much better valuation by listing in India & regulatory friction would reduce by being India domiciled.
🚨🚨PhonePe's investors coughed up Rs 8,000 crore in taxes to shift domicile from Singapore to India: CEO Sameer Nigam
@BhavyaDKumar
reports
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WhatsApp Forward ->
Q: Where can I get a haircut during quarantine?
A: Call your lead investor.
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Bajaj Finance Annual Report is a must read for anyone interested in Indian financial services.
Key surprises:
a. E-Commerce purchases as % of total Bajaj EMI card purchases declined.
b. Bajaj Finance share of Bajaj 2W financed dropped from 54% to 34%.
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CryptoTwitter: Web 3 will be owned by creators & builders.
Facebook: We are now Meta. We will own Web 3.
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My 9yo told me 'Appa, wasn't a bullock cart the first autonomous, fully-self-driving vehicle?'
I can't think of any hole in that argument. Thoughts?
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@devaiahPB
Have you tried putting fingers in a plug-point? The instant result will shock you.
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Topic of Indian private market returns (VC/PE/Alts) vs Public Market equities comes up frequently in family office discussions. Coz a picture is worth a 1000 words.
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KakaoBank, set to become South Korea's first listed internet-only bank, was 1,700 times oversubscribed. Total bids value is much larger than Korea's GDP!
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Since it is Saturday night & I am a nerd, a deep dive into SBI Cards Prospectus seemed like a great idea. Lots of interesting data & trends if you are into Indian payments/consumer fintech.
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A bank partner just offered to include all our colleagues & their families in the bank's employee vaccination drive coz they consider us an essential partner. Extremely touched.
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The luxury of a darshini (restaurant) idli vada after almost 3 months!
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There is external validation of all kinds & then there is
@sundarpichai
talk about a product that you worked on on a $GOOG earnings call.
@rohitmishra3001
@pjpaul_tweets
@sahilkini
@nikhilkumarks
@vinaykesari
@atulaak
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When you are trying too hard to get people to borrow - after saying No to an EMI via card, next screen is this 😭🤯
Lesson learnt - Next time, don't use credit card. Pay by UPI.
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Incredible execution by Kotak Bank on
@kotak811
. Recent investor presentation with a deep dive on key metrics of bank-within-a-bank shows elephants can indeed dance! Take a bow
@jay_kotakone
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With all the focus on gold loans, purity of underlying gold etc, reminded of the time when I was responsible for a gold recycling business in India. Agents who bought gold at defaulted gold loan auctions were a key client segment. Gold purity in a batch varied from 75-85%, with
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It is an absolute privilege to be able to just ping a friend & get an industry expert level insight - instead of speculating. Super fortunate to have a ton of such friends across industries.
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@championswimmer
When I became a junior bank analyst, my senior's first question was "Why do banks have the best, most prominent buildings in town?". The answer was - coz as a depositor you walk in with money and walk out with a piece of paper on bank letterhead. Granite & dark wood gives trust.
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It is official. A first step towards enabling Indian savers to get high, government guaranteed returns. No ifs, buts, asterisks.
Android users of Bharat - click here to experience magic
For the rest - details here
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Rajeev Jain - 'I have been doing BNPL for 14 years!' 'Pay Later part has to be paid'
He is clearly not a fan of high delinquency rate BNPL models.
Bajaj Finance Rajeev Jain on competition from fintechs - "Show me a $1bn balance sheet fintech. There are none. There may be $1bn valuation fintech - but not $1bn balance sheet"
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My 11yo saw an ad 'We are the most reputed real estate company....' & said, sceptically, 'Appa, if they are actually most reputed, why do they need to say that in an ad?'
I am proud!
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"Secured loans are safe"
"Gold loans are the safest loans an Indian lender can make because they can be liquidated easily - so they get refinanced rather than defaulted on"
After less than a month after IIFL Finance being asked to stop issuing gold loans, the gold loan
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In Indian banking, are digitally savvy consumers less profitable?
a. In cards - optimises & redeems rewards, doesn't revolve, churns fast
b. In loans - pays down fast, lower cross-sell, shops around for good rates
c. In deposits - Low avg SA balance. Seeks high int deposits
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My 3-yo wants to be a truck driver when he grows up. The wife wants him to think of an alternate profession as a backup given automation. It is hard being a 3-yo.
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As India's largest crypto platform, we are committed to helping grow India's crypto ecosystem. We are looking for a crypto native colleague to join us & anchor the investments team. If you or anyone you know fits the bill, please reach out.
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Our engineering team has been forced to think very hard to find a time window to deploy an upgrade - coz of the sheer amount of user traffic.
Some would call it product market fit - since this is a product that was launched less than 1 week ago.
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Indian private banks are struggling to grow deposits. Older people have ample deposits. To get deposits from PSU banks, private banks need to
a. Stop misselling. FD mangoge, insurance denge 🙅♂️
b. Have 50+ yo serve them in their language
c. Provide good calendars at start of year
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Open Butter Dosa at my local darshini.
A splurge before a potential spike in Bangalore Covid-19 cases that could force us back indoors.
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Chart of India-China earnings divergence by Apollo's Torsten Slok is a great summary of what has happened in the two markets post-Covid.
China seems to going through a payback for lower quality growth in previous years.
India is benefitting from a stronger foundation & macro.
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Yes Bank moratorium also means that if a borrower had a line of credit from Yes Bank, that line doesn't exist now. Finding a substitute lender in March will be tough!
So, if you have a line from a bank with stressed capital ratios, draw down that line now, before it disappears!
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An Indian listed company where profit per employee is much greater than $1 million, trading at an EBITDA multiple of 4x. Absolutely fascinating!
Dividend per share chart below.
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India has seen a surprisingly large increase in POS deployment. 23% increase from Mar to Sep 19. RBL Bank & HDFC Bank account for ~60% of this increase. Also,# of transactions at ATMs dropped over 10% in 6m while POS increased 4%.
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Zerodha's first fund launch looks to be a passive fund benchmarked to Nifty LargeMidcap250. With an ELSS variant also available 🚀.
Brilliant choice.
LargeMidcap250 means 50% exposure to midcaps - can magnify upside & downside swings vs Nifty 50.
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Who is the smart money in Indian equity markets ?
Indian professional investors (i.e those who get paid fees to manage money - mutual funds, AIFs, PMSs) - all bought on the exit poll news & sold on the election news. While retail did the opposite.
To cap it all, markets closed
A very startling data from NSE. retail was net seller on 3rd (Monday) when the market zoomed and FIIs bought heavily. On the 4th when market crashed, retail actually was net buyer of Rs 21,000 cr as both FIIs and Mutual funds sold.
#markets
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Nothing in PMC Bank's financial reports indicated the bank was in poor health or that it had large, concentrated loans to a real estate linked entity. Scary!
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PSA: Citi exiting consumer banking in India doesn't mean your bank accounts/credit cards etc stop functioning & you need to find a new bank. Some other bank will take over the Indian operations & service will continue uninterrupted. Chill!
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Long-time investors in Indian VC/PE are realizing they would have been better off in an index fund.
Nifty 50 compounded at 13% over the last 10 years.
Adding 2% premium for illiquidity, hurdle rate for allocating to VC/PE would logically have been 15%.
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Ice apple (ತಾಟಿನಿಂಗು) season is almost coming to an end. That explosion of sweet juice as you bite into the fruit is just 🤯. If you haven't had it yet - not too late. Available at a street corner near you.
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Bajaj Finance acquiring 40% of Snapwork - a tech services company that develops apps etc. for many Indian banks/non-banks is super interesting.
BFL digital transformation already has competition in knots. Buying Snapwork takes it to next level.
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New AMC: We want to be the Vanguard of India
Me: So, all the profits will get distributed to your unit holders & you won't directly benefit from it?
New AMC: No, no. Not like that.(Backpedaling furiously). Low fees for them. We will keep the profits.
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TIL my neighbourhood merchant is getting charged Rs.15/month for Amitabh Bacchan's voice announcing payment.
Merchant prefers previous format but doesn't know how to cancel :-(
Regulations on clear authorization of debits to merchant accounts will come fast due to such misuse.
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It was an honour to meet
@Tejasvi_Surya
& discuss the potential to make India the vishwaguru of Web3. Came away energized by his high level of engagement & encouragement.
Blockchain & Web3 can make governance & recordkeeping more transparent & accessible. More awareness is required about its transformative potential.
Glad to meet Shri
@Ashish343
of
@CoinSwitchKuber
& discuss synergies on exploring capabilities of infusing tech in administration.
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RBI announced delegated payments via UPI. Can substantially increase UPI usage.
While details are sparse, my 9 yo may be able to use UPI on my bank account - with me having control on limits.
Petty cash in office/small reimbursements problem also solved !
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Thanks
@ashish343
. Have enjoyed being part of
@CoinSwitchKuber
& building under your leadership. We will continue to cheer as the CoinSwitch team delivers on the dream of making money equal for all.
Success is a teamwork.
@CoinSwitchKuber
scaled new heights thanks to the efforts of
@NairSharan
,
@snazki
&
@PositiveGamma
. I'm happy to reveal they are now starting up in Web3.
We dream the same dream —
#MadeinIndia
Web3. We'll continue to work towards that goal as
#TeamIndia
.
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@kunalb11
The implicit assumption here is that UPI
infra doesn't change for a few years while card infra improves.
UPI didn't exist a few years ago.
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Square-Afterpay presentation is worth a read for all in payments. BNPL (consumer +merchant app) will become a must have offering for many.
My 2025 India BNPL Shortlist
Paytm, Bajaj Finance, PhonePe, Razorpay, BharatPe, CapitalFloat, ZestMoney, PayU, CRED
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Institutional adoption of digital assets is at an early stage. We believe it will gather momentum in coming years.
We are building foundational infrastructure to accelerate global institutions investing in crypto & other digital assets & are excited to announce our seed round.
🔥 We've got some exciting news to share, folks! 🔥
We just closed our seed funding round, securing $4 Million to Accelerate Global Institutional Participation in Digital Assets
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Sri Lanka, Thailand, Malaysia & Vietnam have approved visa free entry for Indians over last few weeks.
Removing visa costs & friction will have a multiplier effect on economies & force other Asian countries to rethink visa policies on the fastest growing source of tourists.
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It is necessary for everyone on Indian fintwit to have an opinion on HDFC Bank.
Here is mine:
If HDFC Bank does not break 1234, it will go to 5678 over 10 years. This is the law of natural numbers.
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Bajaj Finance has better tech than most Indian fintechs & has generated a higher return for its investors than most Indian fintechs.
Last 8 year XIRR of >40%.
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Bank Relationship Manager: Sir, Quarter end pressure. Please help us by doing some investments.
Me, former bank analyst, having tracking system liquidity, credit/deposit ratios: Sure. What do you recommend?
Bank RM: This single-premium plan is great. Guaranteed high returns.
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PayPay seems to be gaining mind share & market share. Amazing how the Paytm obsessed Indian investor/media has ignored PayPay's success. Language barrier at work
@vijayshekhar
?
There’s a really interesting UX in PayPay that they trialed recently to get people to increase engagement.
It’s similar to a lootbox, except themed for a non-gamer audience using a familiar device in Japan. (くじ, analogous to a raffle lottery if you’re familiar with those.)
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Credit cards: Top 5 issuing banks -> 77% of spends.
UPI: Top 5 remitter banks -> just over 50% of spends.
3 banks in common in top 5.
If spends shift from credit cards to credit lines on UPI, profit pools can shift dramatically.
Also, payment banks need permit to lend 🤞
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DHFL's latest disclosures are intriguing. Per their regulator (NHB) interpretation, capital adequacy ratio for FY2018 was 10.24% vs 15.29% stated by company (and 12% minimum regulatory requirement)!
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A couple of years ago, Bajaj Finance was a large fee generating customer for payment gateways. Two years from now, it will be competing with them across UPI P2P/P2M/QR, POS & payment gateway.
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In 18 months time, Indian stock markets will have instantaneous settlement (not T+0!)
Brokers will need to invest ₹₹₹ in tech to see chunky financing revenue disappear.
On a side note, crypto is the other market with instantaneous settlement :-)
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10 years ago: Wallet choices were Hidesign/Montblanc
5 years ago: Wallet choices were Paytm/FreeCharge
Now: Wallet choices are Metamask/Ledger
I am amazed by how my world has changed.
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Before I joined Coinswitch, I had little idea of how big crypto adoption was in Tier 3-4 India.
👇reflects the ground reality.
#Bitcoin
price update added to business section of Rajasthan Patrika (Indian Hindi-language daily newspaper) which has 12.9 Million readers.
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@_ShankarNath
If I was an investor whose only KPI was returns, I would back a boorish founder who would burn out or generate 100x rather than a staid founder generating 10x. I would not invite the boorish founder home for Diwali party though - strictly business. Like investing in sin stocks.
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"This paternalistic mindset of employers, a vestige of the previous generation of promoter-led companies that valued personal loyalty over all else, has unfortunately persisted in our corporate culture." - Hard hitting observation by
@banglani
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For autos in Bangalore, I have found this approach to work well in the rate negotiation.
Auto driver: Will go to your destination but you need to pay 1.5x meter.
Me: Sir. Uber/Ola app is showing Rs.y. I will give Rs.10/20 extra.
Auto driver(all smiles): Pls sit.
Ola and Uber are just price discovery apps in Bangalore lately.
"Ser eak request - can you please cancel the ride? I drop you to the location but pay me directly on GPay"
Reason? Cab aggregators charging 35% commission.
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