Portugal Elects
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Portuguese poll aggregation ⭑ Election analysis ⭑ Political news Not affiliated with @EuropeElects
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Anyone else noticed that TVI used the german CDU logo in today's poll?
11
36
476
Party leadership candidate José Luís Carneiro (PS) suggests that, in the event of losing elections, he would support a PPD/PSD minority government in order to rule out the possibility of Chega entering the government.
18
31
317
POLL: Legislative election, Intercampus:
PPD/PSD: 27 (-0.9)
PS: 22.2% (-5.1)
CH: 16.1% (+3.4)
BE: 9.8%(+2.5)
IL: 8.7% (-0.3)
CDU: 4% (-0.4)
L: 3.3% (+1.8)
PAN: 2.8% (-0.7)
CDS-PP: 2.5 (+0,8)
+/- vs.18-23 oct. 2023
12
37
292
POLL: Legislative election, Consulmark2:
PPD/PSD: 30%
PS: 26%
CH: 17.2%
IL: 6.7%
BE: 4.4%
CDS-PP: 2.3%
L: 2.3%
CDU: 2.1%
PAN: 1.4%
20
21
237
POLL: Legislative election, Intercampus:
PS: 30.9% (+1.6)
AD: 24.3% (-3.5)
CH: 19.4% (+6)
BE: 8.7% (-1.4)
IL: 6.3% (-1.3)
CDU: 4.6% (+1.9)
PAN: 2.6% (-0.9)
L: 1.5% (-1.8)
+/- vs.18-21 dec. 2023
11
22
174
ESTIMATE: Legislative election, PortugalElects:
AD: 29.8% - 34.3%
PS: 26.5% - 31.5%
CH: 18.3% - 20.7%
IL: 5.9% - 7.1%
BE: 4.0% - 5.0%
CDU: 2.1% - 3.1%
L: 2.1% - 2.6%
PAN: 1.2% - 1.9%
*based on official polls conducted between february and march
7
20
173
POLL: Legislative election, Aximage:
PS: 32.9 (+4.9)
PPD/PSD: 26.7% (-0.3)
CH: 16.2% (-1.8)
BE: 6.9%(-2.1)
IL: 5% (-1)
CDU: 3.2% (+0.2)
PAN: 2.9% (-0.1)
L: 2% (-1)
CDS-PP: 1.5% (+0.5)
+/- vs.10-13 nov. 2023
12
16
168
POLL: Legislative election, Consulmark2:
AD: 28% (-9.6)
PS: 27% (+2.9)
CH: 18% (+6)
BE: 7% (-2.1)
IL: 6% (+1.1)
CDU: 3 (-0.3)
L: 2% (-0.1)
PAN: 1% (-0.8)
+/- vs.17-20 dec. 2023
3
18
148
POLL: Legislative election, Intercampus:
AD: 27.8% (+3.5)
PS: 25.6% (-5.3)
CH: 18.8% (-0,6)
IL: 7.5% (+1.2)
BE: 6.2% (-2.5)
L: 3.7% (+2.2)
CDU: 3.1% (-1.5)
PAN: 3.1% (+0.5)
+/- vs.16-20 jan. 2024
9
15
148
POLL: Legislative election, Intercampus:
PS: 25.5 (+3.3)
PPD/PSD: 23.6% (-3.4)
CH: 14.6% (-1.5)
BE: 10.2%(+0.4)
IL: 9.1% (+0.4)
PAN: 4.7% (+1.9)
CDU: 3.5% (-0.5)
L: 3.2% (-0.1)
CDS-PP: 2% (-0.5)
+/- vs.7-8 nov. 2023
6
19
143
POLL: Legislative election, CESOP-UCP:
PPD/PSD: 29 (-4)
PS: 28% (-4)
CH: 16% (+6)
IL: 9%(+2)
BE: 6% (-1)
CDU: 3% (-1)
CDS-PP: 2% (+1)
PAN: 2% (+1)
L: 2%
+/- vs.6-15 jul. 2023
1
14
141
POLL: Legislative election, ICS/ISCTE:
PS: 29% (-2)
AD: 27%
CH: 21% (+8)
IL: 5% (+2)
BE: 5% (-1)
CDU: 3% (-3)
PAN: 1% (-1)
L: 1% (-1)
+/- vs.16-25 sep. 2023
3
15
139
POLL: Legislative election, Intercampus:
AD: 26.4% (-1.4)
PS: 26% (+0.4)
CH: 20.8% (+2)
IL: 8.4% (+0.9)
BE: 6.8% (+0.6)
L: 3.7% (+0.6)
PAN: 3.1% (-0.6)
CDU: 3% (-0.1)
+/- vs.6-10 feb. 2024
9
14
122
POLL: Legislative election, Intercampus:
PS: 25.2% (+0.7)
PPD/PSD: 24.4% (-1.9)
CH: 13.6% (+0.7)
IL: 9.8% (+1)
BE: 9.5% (-0.7)
PAN: 4.8% (+0.9)
CDU: 4.6% (-0.5)
L: 2.5% (+0.1)
CDS-PP: 1.2% (-1.2)
+/- vs.25-131 mai. 2023
11
17
118
POLL: Legislative election, Consulmark2:
AD: 37.6 (+7.6)
PS: 24.1 (-1.9)
CH: 12 (-5.3)
BE: 9.1% (+4.7)
IL: 4.9% (-1.6)
CDU: 3.3 (+1.2)
L: 2.8% (+0.5)
PAN: 1.1% (-0.3)
18
13
120
POLL: Azores regional election, Aximage:
AD: 42.2%
PS: 38.6%
CH: 7.3%
BE: 2.2%
PAN: 2.2%
IL: 1.6%
CDU: 1.4%
1
4
115
Today marks 48 years since the November 25th.
On November 25th, 1975, military movements led to the end of the PREC (ongoing revolutionary process) and to the stabilization of representative democracy in Portugal.
2
16
112
POLL: Legislative election, CESOP-UCP:
PS: 32% (-6)
PPD/PSD: 31% (+1)
CH: 11% (+2)
IL: 8% (+2)
BE: 7% (+2)
CDU: 4% (-1)
PAN: 2% (+1)
L: 2%
CDS-PP: 1%
+/- vs.9-17 jul. 2022
4
10
109
It is being reported that discussions between the PPD/PSD and CDS-PP to form a pre-electoral coalition are well underway.
The CDS-PP should be able to elect 2 to 4 MP's.
10
9
109
After losing parliamentary support the regional government of the Azores has failed to approve the regional budget for 2024.
The President of the Republic has dissolved the regional assembly and snap elections will be held on the 4th of february next year.
1
8
105
POLL: Legislative election, Intercampus:
PS: 28.5% (-2.6)
PPD/PSD: 27.8% (-1.7)
CH: 14.1% (+3.4)
IL: 9% (+1.4)
BE: 5.8% (-1.7)
CDU: 4.8% (+1.1)
PAN: 2.9% (-0.8)
L: 1.6% (-0.8)
CDS-PP: 1.1% (+0.4)
+/- vs.6-11 jan. 2023
3
12
101
POLL: Legislative election, Aximage:
PS: 28 (-0.6)
PPD/PSD: 27% (+2.1)
CH: 18% (+3.4)
BE: 9%(+1.9)
IL: 6% (-0.7)
CDU: 3% (-0.8)
PAN: 3% (-1.8)
L: 3% (+0.1)
CDS-PP: 1 (-0.6)
+/- vs.18-24 oct. 2023
4
9
95
POLL: Legislative election, Duplimétrica:
AD: 29%
PS: 26%
CH: 20%
IL: 7%
BE: 4%
L: 3%
CDU: 2%
PAN: 2%
1
9
96
It is being reported that the prosecution made a mistake in the corruption case regarding the PM. The wiretaps that involved António Costa (PS) referred to the Minister of Economy and Maritime Affairs, António Costa Silva.
5
14
93
POLL: Legislative election, Intercampus:
PPD/PSD: 27.8 (-0.7)
PS: 27.3% (-2.7)
CH: 12.7% (-0.1)
IL: 9%(-0.3)
BE: 7.3% (+0.9)
CDU: 4.4% (+0.1)
PAN: 3.5% (+1.4)
CDS-PP: 1.7% (+0.9)
L: 1.5 (-0,8)
+/- vs.9-14 aug. 2023
4
17
94
PPD/PSD and CDS-PP will run together in a coalition under the name "Democratic Alliance" (AD).
They will run in a coalition in the azores regional election, legislative election and the european parliament election next year.
It is being reported that discussions between the PPD/PSD and CDS-PP to form a pre-electoral coalition are well underway.
The CDS-PP should be able to elect 2 to 4 MP's.
10
9
109
4
9
88
POLL: Leadership approval ratings (1 to 5), Aximage:
Tavares: 3
Rocha: 2.9
Sousa Real: 2.8
Martins: 2.7
Montenegro: 2.6
Melo: 2.6
Ventura: 2.5
Raimundo: 2.4
Costa: 2.4
0
16
85
It is being reported that the President of the Republic will dissolve the regional assembly of Madeira and call for a snap election.
1
10
83
The President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (PPD/PSD), has announced the dissolution of the Assembly of the Republic. A snap election will be held on the 10th of March 2024.
0
16
83
POLL: Madeira regional election, Aximage:
PSD/CDS-PP: 55% (+1)
PS: 16,8% (-9.8)
JPP: 13,8%% (+4.4)
CH:3.6% (+0.9)
IL: 3.2% (+0.9)
CDU: 1.9% (+0.8)
BE: 1.4% (+0.5)
PAN: 0.9% (+0.7)
+/- vs. 9-15 dec. 2022
5
8
80
POLL: European election, Intercampus:
PPD/PSD: 22.2
PS: 15.9%
CH: 9.5%
BE: 7.3%
IL: 6.3%
CDS-PP: 4.8%
CDU: 3.2%
PAN: 3.2%
L: 3.2%
-
Undecided/Doesn't know: 22.2%
9
7
83
POLL: Legislative election, Intercampus, seat projection:
PPD/PSD: 77
PS: 61
CH: 43
BE: 19
IL: 16
CDU: 6
L: 4
PAN: 2
CDS-PP: 2
*projection by PortugalElects
3
18
83
POLL: Legislative election, CESEOP-UCP:
AD: 32% (+1)
PS: 28%
CH: 19% (+3)
IL: 6% (-3)
BE: 5% (-1)
L: 3% (+1)
CDU: 2% (-1)
PAN: 1% (-1)
+/- vs.15-24 nov. 2023
3
15
82
The azorean regional election will be held today. Here is a guide with the eleven lists contesting the election:
3
10
81
POLL: Legislative election, Duplimétrica:
PS: 28% (+2)
AD: 28% (-1)
CH: 20%
IL: 7%
BE: 6% (+2)
L: 3%
CDU: 2%
PAN: 1% (-1)
+/- vs.10-20 feb. 2024
2
14
82
POLL: Legislative election, CESOP-UCP:
AD: 35% (+3)
PS: 29% (+1)
CH: 17% (-2)
IL: 6%
BE: 4% (-1)
L: 3%
CDU: 2%
PAN: 1%
+/- vs.24 jan-1 feb. 2024
1
9
73
POLL: Legislative election, Aximage:
PS: 29.3% (+0.5)
PPD/PSD: 25.6% (-2.1)
CH: 13.6% (+0.6)
BE: 7.1%(-0.9)
IL: 5.3% (+0.1)
CDU: 4.3% (+1.1)
PAN: 3.6% (-0.2)
L: 2.8 (+0.1)
CDS-PP: 2.6% (+1.5)
+/- vs.6-11 jul. 2023
4
6
71
POLL: Legislative election, ICS-ISCTE:
PS: 31%
PPD/PSD: 25% (-5)
CH: 13%
BE: 6%(+1)
CDU: 6% (+1)
IL: 3% (-1)
CDS-PP: 2% (+1)
PAN: 2%
L: 2 (+1)
+/- vs.13-28 mai. 2023
3
7
71
PS: Pedro Nuno Santos has been elected the new Secretary-General of the Socialist Party.
He is a part of the more left-wing faction of the party, being willing to form a "geringonça" type government with the left-wing parties.
1
7
72
POLL: Legislative election, Aximage:
PS: 32.7% (-1.4)
AD: 27.4% (+1.4)
CH: 16.2% (-0.1)
BE: 8% (+1.7)
IL: 4.2% (+0.1)
PAN: 2.9% (-0.8)
CDU: 2.6% (-0.1)
L: 1.9% (+0.1)
+/- vs.18-23 dec. 2023
2
4
65
POLL: Legislative election, ICS/ISCTE:
PS: 30% (-7)
PPD/PSD: 30% (+1)
CH: 13% (+4)
CDU: 5% (=)
BE: 5% (-2)
IL: 4% (+2)
CDS-PP: 2% (+2)
PAN: 2% (-1)
L: 1% (+1)
+/- vs.3-15 dec. 2022
4
7
61
PS: It is being reported that former Minister of Infrastructure and Housing, Pedro Nuno Santos (PS), will run for the party leardership.
3
3
62
POLL: Legislative election, Intercampus:
PS: 28.4% (=)
PPD/PSD: 27.3% (+1)
CH: 15.2% (+1.1)
IL: 7.9% (-1.1)
BE: 7.2% (+1.4)
CDU: 3.6% (-1.1)
L: 2.7% (+1.1)
PAN: 1.7% (-1.2)
CDS-PP: 1.5% (+0.4)
+/- vs.3-10 feb. 2023
3
11
59
POLL: Legislative election, Aximage:
PS: 28.8% (+0.5)
PPD/PSD: 27.7% (-0.9)
CH: 13% (+0.9)
BE: 8% (+1.7)
IL: 5.2%(-0.9)
CDU: 3.2% (-0.3)
PAN: 3.8%(-0.7)
L: 2.7%
CDS-PP: 1.1%(-0.2)
+/- vs.10-14 apr. 2023
2
7
56
POLL: Presidential election, INTERCAMPUS:
Passos Coelho: 15.8%
Guterres: 13.5%
Costa: 10.6%
Gouveia e Melo: 10%
Ventura: 9.5%
Gomes: 6%
Moreira: 4.7%
Mortágua: 4.3%
Durão Barroso: 4%
...
9
2
58
POLL: Legislative election, APRIL FOOLS:
CH: 30.2%
IL: 27.9%
BE: 22%
CDS-PP: 5.2%
PPD/PSD: 4.8%
L: 4.6%
CDU: 2.3%
PS: 1.8%
PAN: 1.3%
#AprilFools
#DiaDasMentiras
5
6
57
PM António Costa (PS) has officially announced his resignation.
It is being reported that PM António Costa (PS) will present his resignation to the President of the Republic this afternoon.
0
4
37
2
6
58
POLL: Legislative election, Consukmark2, seat projection:
PPD/PSD: 86
PS: 74
CH: 46
IL: 11
BE: 6
L: 3
CDS-PP: 2
CDU: 2
*projection by PortugalElects
5
6
52
GENERAL ESTIMATE Q1 2023, vote share:
PS: 28%-33.3%
PPD/PSD: 26.1%-30%
CH: 11%-15.6%
IL: 7.2%-8%
BE: 4.7%-6%
CDU: 2%-4.6%
L: 1.3%-3.2%
PAN: 0.9%-2.2%
CDS-PP: 0.8%-2.4%
*estimate by PortugalElects
1
7
51
The prosecution has denied such claims. Both the PM and the Minister of the Economy have been named and there was no confusion regarding the two.
It is being reported that the prosecution made a mistake in the corruption case regarding the PM. The wiretaps that involved António Costa (PS) referred to the Minister of Economy and Maritime Affairs, António Costa Silva.
5
14
93
0
8
55
Former Prime Minister José Sócrates (PS) will be tried for 22 crimes. Sócrates faces 3 corruption charges, 13 money laundering charges and 6 tax fraud charges.
0
4
50
POLL: Legislative election, Pitagórica, seat projection:
PPD/PSD: 89
PS: 77
CH: 36
IL: 14
BE: 9
CDU: 4
L: 1
*projection by PortugalElects
2
5
52
Today searches took place at the residence of the president of the regional government of Madeira, Miguel Albuquerque (PPD/PSD), as well as at the city hall of Funchal. Three individuals have already been arrested, including the mayor of Funchal.
3
9
52
POLL: Legislative election, Intercampus, seat projection:
PS: 83
PPD/PSD: 75
CH: 39
IL: 13
BE: 12
CDU: 4
L: 3
PAN: 1
*projection by PortugalElects
5
8
49
POLL: Legislative election, CESOP-UCP:
PPD/PSD: 34% (+3)
PS: 31% (-1)
CH: 9% (-2)
IL: 6% (-2)
BE: 6% (-1)
CDU: 3% (-1)
CDS-PP: 2% (+1)
L: 1% (-1)
PAN: 1% (-1)
+/- vs.9-17 feb. 2023
2
8
51
POLL: Legislative election, Intercampus:
PS: 30% (+2.1)
PPD/PSD: 28.6% (+2)
CH: 12.8% (-0.6)
IL: 9.3% (+1)
BE: 6.4%(-1.6)
CDU: 4.3% (+0.6)
L: 2.3%(-0.5)
PAN: 2.1% (-1.3)
CDS-PP: 0.8%(-0.3)
+/- vs.7-11 aug. 2023
1
5
49
POLL: Legislative election, Aximage:
PS: 27.1% (-7.4)
PPD/PSD: 25.1% (-5.8)
CH: 12.9% (+4.0)
IL: 9.5% (+2.9)
BE: 6.6% (+2.8)
CDU: 4.8% (+1.6)
L: 3.4% (+1.3)
PAN: 3.3% (+0.1)
CDS-PP: 1.4% (-0.5)
+/- vs. 21-24 sep. 2022
2
7
47
POLL: Legislative election, Consukmark2, seat projection:
AD: 78
PS: 75
CH: 47
BE: 14
IL: 11
CDU: 3
L: 2
*projection by PortugalElects
4
10
49
POLL: Legislative election, Aximage:
PS: 28.4 (-0.7)
PPD/PSD: 24.9% (-0.7)
CH: 14.6% (+1)
BE: 7.1%
IL: 6.7% (+1.4)
PAN: 4.8% (+1.2)
CDU: 3.8% (-0.5)
L: 2.9% (+0.1)
CDS-PP: 1.6 (-1)
+/- vs.2-5 oct. 2023
2
3
45
GOV: Minister of Infrastructure João Galamba (PS) has presented his resignation. Galamba was one of the cabinet members involved in the corruption scandal.
1
4
46
CH: André Ventura announces he will leave the party leadership if the Left Bloc (BE) or the Communist Party-Greens (CDU) achieve a better result than his party in the european elections next year.
3
1
44
POLL: Legislative election, Aximage:
PPD/PSD: 28.6% (+3.5)
PS: 28.3% (+1.2)
CH: 12.1% (-0.8)
BE: 6.3% (-0.3)
IL: 6.1% (-3.4)
PAN: 4.5% (+1.4)
CDU: 3.5% (-1.3)
L: 2.7% (+0.4)
CDS-PP: 1.3% (-0.1)
+/- vs.10-14 jan. 2023
1
8
42
POLL: Legislative election, Consukmark2, seat projection:
AD: 106
PS: 64
CH: 27
BE: 18
IL: 8
CDU: 4
L: 3
*projection by PortugalElects
3
3
43
This morning, searches were carried out at the PM's official residence, as well as other ministries, private residences and lawyers' offices. The searches stem from a case of corruption in a lithium exploration contract.
2
1
41
CDS-PP: President Nuno Melo announces a re-founding congress for the second half of this year. He plans to change the party's program and possibly the name, setting education and agriculture as the party's priorities.
2
3
40
POLL: Madeira regional election, Intercampus:
PSD/CDS-PP: 45.2%
PS: 29.5
JPP: 8.4%
CH: 6.7%
IL: 4.2%
BE: 2.1%
PAN: 1.7%
CDU: 1.1%
1
1
42
POLL: Legislative election, ICS/ISCTE:
PS: 31%
PPD/PSD: 30%
CH: 13%
CDU: 5%
BE: 5%
IL: 4%
PAN: 2%
CDS-PP: 1% (-1)
L: 1%
+/- vs.11-20 mar. 2023
1
1
35
POLL: Madeira regional election, Aximage:
PSD/CDS-PP: 54% (+3.9)
PS: 26.6 (+8)
JPP: 9.4% (-0.7)
CH: 2.7% (-1.4)
IL: 2.3% (-1)
CDU: 1.1% (-0.4)
BE: 0.9% (-1)
PAN: 0.2% (1.7)
+/- vs. 30 jul-5 aug. 2022
3
4
36
PS: It is being reported that Minister of Home Affairs José Luís Carneiro (PS) will run for the party leardership.
0
4
36
POLL: Legislative election, Pitagórica:
PPD/PSD: 30.6% (+0.2)
PS: 26.9% (-9.0)
CH: 14.2% (+5.1)
IL: 8.0% (+2.8)
BE: 5.6% (+2.2)
CDU: 2.2% (-2.1)
L: 1.9% (-0.3)
PAN: 0.9% (+0.3)
CDS-PP: 0% (-0.7)
+/- vs. 9-15 dec. 2022
2
4
36
POLL: Legislative election, Intercampus, Portugal Elelcts Coligómetro Majority coalitions:
PS-PPD/PSD: 138
PPD/PSD-CH: 120
PPD/PSD-CH-IL: 136
PPD/PSD-CH-CDS.PP: 122
PPD/PSD-CH-IL-CDS.PP: 138
*possible coalitions proposed during the January 2022 election campaign.
1
5
36
POLL: Legislative election, Intercampus, electoral map;
*projection by PortugalElects
3
1
35
Azores: Regional goverment loses majority after IL breaks confidence and supply agrrement with the PPD/PSD.
2
2
34
It is being reported that PM António Costa (PS) will present his resignation to the President of the Republic this afternoon.
0
4
37
POLL: Legislative election, Aximage, seat projection:
PS: 76
PPD/PSD: 70
CH: 48
BE: 16
IL: 11
CDU: 3
PAN: 3
L: 3
*projection by PortugalElects
3
4
35
POLL: European election, Intercampus, seat projection:
PPD/PSD: 7
PS: 5
CH: 3
BE: 1
IL: 1
CDS-PP: 1
CDU: 1
PAN: 1
L: 1
*projection by PortugalElects
0
5
33
POLL: Presidential election, INTERCAMPUS:
Gouveia e Melo: 15.9%
Passos Coelho: 15.2%
Costa: 9.6%
Gomes: 8.6%
Marques Mendes: 7,3%
Portas: 6.3%
Ventura: 6.1%
Santos Silva: 5,8%
Mortágua: 4%
Ferreira: 3.3%
Cotrim de Figueiredo: 2.1%
5
7
33
It is being reported that the XX constitutional government (Passos Coelho second cabinet) knew about, and validated, the scheme David Neeleman used to buy TAP during the privatization process in 2015.
2
2
31
POLL: Legislative election, Intercampus, seat projection:
PPD/PSD: 81
PS: 77
CH: 30
IL: 18
BE: 14
CDU: 6
PAN: 3
L: 1
*projection by PortugalElects
2
5
33
POLL: Legislative election, Intercampus, seat projection:
PS: 74
PPD/PSD: 66
CH: 38
BE: 20
IL: 18
PAN: 6
CDU: 4
L: 3
CDS-PP: 1
*projection by PortugalElects
1
2
29
POLL: Legislative election, CESOP-UCP, seat projection:
PPD/PSD: 80
PS: 78
CH: 40
IL: 17
BE: 9
CDU: 3
CDS-PP: 1
PAN: 1
L: 1
*projection by PortugalElects
1
4
32
POLL: Legislative election, Consulmark2, Portugal Elelcts Coligómetro Majority coalitions:
AD-PS: 170
AD-CH: 133
0
1
29
POLL: Legislative election, Consulmark2, Portugal Elelcts Coligómetro Majority coalitions:
AD-PS: 153
AD-CH: 125
1
4
30
Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU):
- Portuguese Communist Paty (PCP-GUE/NGL)
- Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV-G/EFA)
3
1
26
POLL: Legislative election, Intercampus, seat projection:
PS: 82
AD: 63
CH: 49
BE: 16
IL: 11
CDU: 6
PAN: 2
L: 1
*projection by PortugalElects
1
3
27
