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@PollWatch2020
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1). BREAKING: Democracy Institute shows Trump up nationally and in battlegrounds:
National Popular Vote:
Trump 48
Biden 45
Battlegrounds of FL, IA, MI, MN, PA
Trump 49
Biden 42
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Trump got 8 percent of black vote in 2016. I’ve been predicting 11-13 percent in 2020. I’m thinking he could get 14-16 percent now.
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Conceding WI, MI, and PA with its current rampant fraud means conceding these states in 2024. Think they will change if there are no consequences this time?
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Rich Baris: "Democrats are in a complete and total panic right now."
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Heads will explode. Trump up in Michigan.
MICHIGAN
Trump 47% (+2)
Biden 45%
Jorgensen 3%
.
#MIsen
:
James (R) 48% (+1)
Peters (D-inc) 47%
@trafalgar_group
, LV, 8/14-23
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6). According to Democracy Institute the Dems badly miscalculated on BLM:
74% prefer all lives matter
26% prefer black lives matter
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4). Enthusiasm gap is huge.
Very supportive
Trump 82%
Biden 40%
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2). Democracy Institute Poll:
Florida
Trump 47
Biden 44
Minnesota
Trump 48
Biden 45
New Hampshire
Trump 47
Biden 43
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Trump put on a GREAT show in New Hampshire. Well over an hour! When Biden campaigns will he go for an hour? Probably 8 mins.
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Presidential approval on September 14 of respective re-election years according to Rasmussen Reports:
Trump (2020): 51%
Obama (2012): 48%
(likely voters)
3 pt jump since Friday
Rasmussen notes that the overnight results "are possibly the strongest in his presidency."
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If you want to see how good or bad a pollster is just go to Real Clear Politics and check their past predictions. Don't go to 538. Their ratings are purely political and usually upside down from reality.
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12. DI Poll:
"Which candidate do you trust to do the best job handling the economy?
Trump: 59%
Biden 41%
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Here's the Trafalgar Group info on Trump's lead in Michigan:
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9) According to the Democracy Institute Poll: Trump approval is at 52 percent
(NOTE: That number is exactly what Zogby Analytics has)
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We're at the point now where no pollster should be using registered voters.
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16. From DI Poll:
“Do you think Joe Biden is experiencing some form of cognitive decline, such as the early stages of dementia?”
Yes = 59%
No = 40%
Don’t know = 1%
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Interesting
@CarolB201464
@SeabreezeCheryl
@RobertCahaly
@trafalgar_group
@realDonaldTrump
@JoeBiden
@Jorgensen4POTUS
@kyleolson4
@PollWatch2020
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@jaketapper
@freep
@Local4News
@detroitnews
@FOX2News
@wxyzdetroit
I’m very familiar with a Big 3 factory and in 2016 predicted Trump would take Michigan based on the blue collar UAW workers I was talking to.
There are only more Trump supporters here, now, and they’re even a little less timid about it.
@DNC
suffers demoralizing defeat in 2020
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Concerning presidential debates, which option has more risk for Joe Biden? (i.e. which option could hurt Biden more?)
Debate Trump
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Refuse to debate Trump
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3) To me the big news is that Trump was up 2.7% in Michigan right before the Dem Convention. After the coming Trump bump maybe Trump will be up around 3% again.
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1) A nugget about the Trafalgar Michigan poll that has Trump up 46.6 to 45.2 over Biden.
Before the Dem Convention Trump was up 2.7%. After the Dem Convention Trump was up 0.9%. So a 1.8% bump for Biden.
I'm wondering with a Repub Conv bump, if Trump will go back to a 3% lead.
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That both Emerson and Democracy Institute show 19% Black support for Trump confirms that Trump could be headed to significant support here. Trump received 8% of the Black vote in 2016.
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1) BREAKING: DEMOCRACY INSTITUTE POLL SHOWS TRUMP LEADING NATIONALLY, IN KEY BATTLEGROUND STATES, AND ELECTORAL COLLEGE
NATIONAL (Trump +1)
Trump 46
Biden 45
6 BATTLEGROUNDS of FL, IA, MI, MN, PA, WI (Trump +4)
Trump 47
Biden 43
TRUMP’S APPROVAL: 50%
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Baris on various shows today. Some notes:
--
@KariLake
is on track to win in AZ.
--Herschel Walker's chances to win in Georgia are around 70-80%
--Repubs set to win about 25 seats in House but should be and can be higher.
--Vance will win in OH
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If the fraud in WI, MI, and PA is not dealt with now, no Republican can win these states in the near future. Conceding these now means conceding them in 2024 and beyond. Their big cities will stop counting, target what they need, and then make the ballots needed to win.
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As of today, this is how we view the "Core 3" states:
--Trump to win Florida by 2 to 3%
--Trump to win North Carolina by 4 to 5%
--Trump to win Arizona by 2.5-to 3%
(Based largely on voter registration trends and polls from pollsters who were accurate in 2016.)
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Looks like Election Year 2020 fully exposed Fox News as a Democrat media machine.
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This attempt to push Chris Christie on Republicans is a joke. The base doesn’t care what he says.
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Minnesota is very winnable for Trump.
Vice President Mike Pence will hold a rally in Hibbing, Minnesota at the city's airport at 1 p.m. Monday.
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Too early for official predictions yet, but our confidence level concerning Trump winning the Core 3 of Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona is high.
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@BillOReilly
@JoeBiden
embarrassed to say I have a subscription to your show. It’s canceled today. Biden is very divisive. He’s a huge part of the problem.
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Trump has been surging lately. His very strong debate performance should accelerate this surge even more.
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We now have 3 recent polls showing Trump at 52% approval:
Rasmussen Reports: 52%
Democracy Institute: 52%
Gravis: 52%
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I don't think the GOP establishment understands how much disdain most Republicans have toward them. It's going to get interesting.
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Florida is the barometer for the election. Trump won FL by 1.2% last time. If he is over that today that is a good sign. So far it looks positive.
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Results are in. Overwhelming support for Joe Rogan hosting a debate with
@realDonaldTrump
and
@JoeBiden
.
#JoeMustShow
Popular podcast host, Joe Rogan, has offered to moderate a 4-hour presidential debate between Trump and Biden. Cameras but no audience. Trump has agreed. Do you like this idea?
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TRUMP APPROVAL SURGES TO 52%--TWO POINTS HIGHER THAN OBAMA’S ON THIS DAY IN 2012
Trump (10/22/20): 52%
Obama (10/22/12): 50%
(Likely Voters)
(per Rasmussen Reports)
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BREAKING: Trump +2.5 in Michigan
Our new
@trafalgar_group
#2020Election
#BattlegroundState
#MIpoll
conducted Oct 25-28 shows a steady Trump lead:
49.1%
@realDonaldTrump
,
46.6%
@JoeBiden
,
2.1%
@Jorgensen4POTUS
,
1.2% Other,
1.1% Und. See Report:
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We're seeing a trend:
Big Media is picking a Biden victory much bigger than Obama's 2008 win.
Those who got 2016 right are predicting Trump to win by a bigger electoral margin this time.
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Trump's path to 270 is still likely.
The Core 3 of FL, NC, and AZ is getting better by the day.
It is likely Trump will get at least 1 of the Rust Belt 4 of MN, WI, MI, PA.
Big Media polls showing Biden +Infinity does not change this.
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Rasmussen Reports has Trump Leading Nationally:
Trump 48%
Biden 47%
1500 Likely Voters
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Democracy Institute State Polls:
(per Breitbart)
FLORIDA
Trump 49%
Biden 45%
MINNESOTA
Trump 48%
Biden 46%
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Trump 47%
Biden 43%
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Both Trafalgar and Baris have Biden at only +2.4% in Pennsylvania today. According to Baris, Trump is closer in PA now than he was in 2016.
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Las Vegas Oddsmaker Announces Final Prediction: Trump Electoral Landslide Coming
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Just delivered our family's ballots to a voting dropbox while a huge MAGA/Trump Truck parade was going on in Northern Los Angeles County. Was quite an experience! Loved it!
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Who won the Vice Presidential debate?
Kamala Harris
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Mike Pence
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Walker and Oz now appear to have leads.
Masters is on the brink of breaking through in AZ.
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Republicans have huge voter registration gains in FL, NC, and PA from 2016.
This gets drowned out in all the POLLS POLLS POLLS talk.
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Read this thread.
Kyle Rittenhouse is a good example of why I decided to vote for Trump
Violent extremists were destroying people's lives for months, 30 people were killed
Democrats rejected Federal assistance every time Trump offered it
Media lied about Trump deploying "secret police"
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Florida is the barometer for the election. So far the numbers on the ground look positive for the GOP, even better than 2016.
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Our map
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At this point, I don't care whether Fox News retracts or doesn't retract their Arizona call. Their credibility is shot. Their call on Nov 3 was reckless, but what they do now doesn't matter.
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Trump Approval today:
Rasmussen: 52%
The Hill/Harris X: 49%
Gallup: 46%
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It’s unlikely Trump won Florida by 3.3% but then lost Georgia (if only legal votes counted).
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KIM KLACIK MD-7 UPDATE: Only down 12.
Democracy Institute Poll:
Mfume 46%
Klacik 34%
Other = 6%
Undecided = 14%
@kimKBaltimore
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When the Trump team said they had evidence, they weren’t kidding! Wow!
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1) BREAKING: FINAL DEMOCRACY INSTITUTE POLL SHOWS TRUMP HEADED TO “ELECTORAL COLLEGE LANDSLIDE”
NATIONAL (TRUMP +1)
Trump 48
Biden 47
Trump Approval: 52%
(Likely Voters)
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They won’t do it, but true accountability from Big Media and Nate Silver would involve apologizing to Robert Cahaly and Trafalgar.
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I've seen several people think that increasing Republican registration advantages in many states will result in Republicans crossing over to vote for Biden. It doesn't work that way.
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Trump +1.1 in WISCONSIN
Atlas
Trump 49.6
Biden 48.5
Approval: 48%
Trump Black vote: 17%
Trump Hispanic vote: 41%
672 Likely Voters
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It's interesting that Trump had perhaps his biggest surge in approval over the weekend according to Rasmussen. This happened even with the mainstream media smears concerning the military and Covid-19 management.
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TRUMP +2.5 IN MICHIGAN
New
@trafalgar_group
#2020Election
#BattlegroundState
#MIpoll
conducted 10/30-31 shows consistent Trump lead:
48.3%
@realDonaldTrump
,
45.8%
@JoeBiden
,
1.7%
@Jorgensen4POTUS
,
1.3% Other,
3.0% Und. See Report:
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BREAKING: New Trafalgar Group Poll Shows Trump with Thin Lead in MICHIGAN:
Trump 46.5%
Biden 45.9%
Our new
@trafalgar_group
#2020Election
#BattlegroundState
#MIpoll
conducted Oct 11-14 still shows a thin Trump lead:
46.5%
@realDonaldTrump
,
45.9%
@JoeBiden
,
2.5%
@Jorgensen4POTUS
,
2.2% all others,
2.2% Und. See Report:
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I have no inside info but I would not be surprised to see a poll or two showing a Trump lead in Pennsylvania soon. Trump’s current momentum and Biden’s oil industry blunder make this likely.
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GOP leadership does not reach out to Scott Presler: 🤔
@NanHayworth
I’m happy to serve in any way I can.
GOP leadership has never reached out to me.
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Trump won Texas in 2016 by 807,179 votes with a 9% margin over Hillary.
In the 2020 Texas Republican Primary, Trump got 94% of the Republican vote.
Do you think Texas is flipping blue this year?
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NEW POLL: TRUMP INCREASES LEAD IN MICHIGAN
Restoration PAC/Trafalgar Group Survey (10/15-18):
Trump 46.7
Biden 44.9
(Trump +1.8)
(Was Trump +0.6 last week)
1034 General Election Likely Voters
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SENATE UPDATE: Restoration PAC/Trafalgar Group survey shows John James up 2.2% over Gary Peters in MICHIGAN:
James 49.7
Peters 47.5
See slide 4:
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Recent Republican registration gains in AZ and the new Trafalgar poll showing Trump +4 in AZ, are good news for Trump.
It will be tight, but it's looking more likely Trump will carry Arizona.
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NEW PENNSYLVANIA POLL SHOWS TRUMP WITH NARROW LEAD
(Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness)
Trump 48.7% (+1.3)
Biden 47.4%
500 Likely Voters
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Showing a narrow Trump lead in Nevada. About a 3 pt move to Trump here from last poll.
New
@trafalgar_group
#2020Election
#BattlegroundState
#NVpoll
conducted 10/31 - 11/2 shows razor thin Trump lead:
49.1%
@realDonaldTrump
,
48.4
@JoeBiden
1.2%
@Jorgensen4POTUS
,
0.8% Other,
0.5% Und. See Report:
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Dismal state numbers for Biden. National approval: 37 percent.
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It happened! Florida Republicans surpass Democrats in voter registration for first time | TheHill
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So the GOP response after losing again is to keep the same official leadership. Got it!
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Baris said he thinks the Trump lead in North Carolina will grow to about 2%.
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There are many like you who love this country and don’t want it handed over to the Radical Left.
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The oil industry comment could really make a difference. Huge blunder.
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StatesPoll Moves Nevada from Tossup to Tilt R. Now has Trump at 312.
2020 Electoral College Forecast Map
Donald Trump vs Joe Biden
October 30~ 2020.
My Analysis Post:
Post will continue to be updated.
#ElectoralMap
#ElectoralCollegeMap2020
#Election2020
#ForecastMAP
#Election2020Map
#ElectoralCollege
#Elections2020
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Pennsylvania is our tipping point state for President in 2024. Trump is looking very solid in PA as of now.
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People/pollsters we trust are saying Trump will win North Carolina by 2%. Our voter registration analysis is more optimistic.
Repubs have narrowed the D-R registration gap by 247,293 since 2016. (in 2016 Trump won NC by 173K)
We predict a 3.5 to 5% Trump victory here.
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NEW: Susquehanna Polling/American Greatness Poll Shows Arizona Leads for Trump and McSally:
Trump 46.6
Biden 46.2
McSally 50
Kelly 47
--Biden's unfavorable rating up 5 pts.
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StatesPoll now has MN tilting Trump. Sees Trump leading in some way in the Rust Belt 4 (MN, WI, MI, PA). Trump at 322 with this map.
2020 Electoral College Forecast Map
Donald Trump vs Joe Biden
October 31~ 2020. PT.II
My Analysis Post:
Post will continue to be updated
#ElectoralMap
#ElectoralCollegeMap2020
#Election2020
#ForecastMAP
#Election2020Map
#ElectoralCollege
#Elections2020
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The straightest electoral path to 270 for Trump is the Core 3 + 1
Core 3: FL, NC, AZ
+1: one of MN, WI, MI, PA
As referenced on the Rush Limbaugh show last week, we believe Trump will win the Core 3. Per our last tweet we see Trump winning PA, thus securing the Core 3 + 1.
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PANIC in FL: Democrats are sounding the alarm about weak voter turnout rates in Florida’s biggest county, Miami-Dade, where a strong Republican showing is endangering Joe Biden’s chances in the nation’s biggest swing state.”
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The crowd chanting, “Fight for Trump!” was the moment of the Georgia rally.
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1) PENNSYLVANIA AND REPUBLICAN REGISTRATIONS:
From KDKA CBS Pittsburgh:
"in the last four years, the number of registered Democrats has dropped by nearly 50,000, while Republicans have picked up 150,000 registered voters statewide."
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Note this as North Carolina numbers roll in:
In 2016 Trump won NC by 173,315 votes.
Democrats then outnumbered Republicans by 646,246.
Today the D-R gap is 398,953. So Repubs have narrowed the registration gap by 247,293.
Trump is better positioned to win NC now than 2016.
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NORTH CAROLINA POLL: TRUMP +4.4%
(Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness)
Trump: 48.0
Biden 43.6
African American vote at 24% for Trump
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Florida Voter Registration Edge:
2008: Dem edge over Rep: 694,147
Result: Obama wins by 236,148
2012: Dem edge: 558,272
Result: Obama wins by 74,309
2016: Dem edge: 330,428
Result: Trump wins by 112,991
2020: Dem edge as of 10/9: 136,294
Result: ??
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Back in the day, we supported Bush, McCain, and Romney, but there is NO WAY we are going back to that type of Republican Party!
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Oh Boy!!! Now we have two polls showing a Trump lead in Michigan (with Trafalgar).
MICHIGAN
Trump 49% (+4)
Biden 45%
Zia Poll, LV, 10/11-18
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2) Patrick Basham of DI: "Our poll finds Klacik only trails Mfume by 12 points; Cummings regularly beat his Republican opponents by more than 50 points. This suggests the national partisan mood is moving in a Republican direction."
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The Biden teleprompter.
Joe Biden's teleprompter in action. He literally cannot speak coherently without it.
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Tied in Wisconsin. Movement to Trump in Rust Belt continues.
WISCONSIN
Trump 45%
Biden 45%
Jorgensen 5%
@SusquehannaPR
/
@theamgreatness
(R), LV, 10/16-19
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